How to Lie with Data

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How to Lie With Data SUDS Workshop, December 6th, 2016 David Newbury (@workergnome) How to Lie with Data: David Newbury (@workergnome) 1

Transcript of How to Lie with Data

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How to Lie With DataSUDS Workshop, December 6th, 2016

David Newbury (@workergnome)

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Who am I?

—Programmer—Animator—Data Visualizer—Teacher

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This is not an ethics class.

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Two goals for today:

• Learn to Persuade.• Become Suspicious.

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If you want to lie...

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...there's an easy way.Falsify Data.

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We can be moresubtle than that.

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Department ofVeterans AffairsTake this data.Looks about the same?

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Department ofVeterans AffairsLet's compare them directly.

Not very dramatic, is it?

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Department ofVeterans AffairsWe can do better than that...

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Department ofVeterans AffairsOr, we could be really, reallysneaky effective.

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What is a graph?A visual summary of informationfor human interpretation.

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Graphs arevisual.

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Graphs summarize.288,987 census blocks, 9.562 million people. 1 picture.

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Graphs contain Information.• Data - facts or statements• Information - relationships • Knowledge - usefulness• Wisdom - real meaning

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Graphs arefor humans.That big white triangledoes not exist.

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Graphs are Interpreted.Graphs are confusing, but...

People trust you.

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How to Lie with Statistics (1954)

[A misleading graph] is vastly more effective, however, because it contains no adjectives or adverbs to spoil the illusion of objectivity, there's nothing anyone can pin on you.

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Graphsappear true.2000 children each yearsuffer spinal injuries.That's 0.0000003% of children.

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Words arepowerful.

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Misleading TitlesThis is actually showing

college attendance.

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Too Blatant?

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Loaded LabelsHow "substantial" is the drop?

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Leading CaptionsIs the decreasepermanent or temporary?

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Images aremore powerful.

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PictographsLength vs. Count

Humans compare length...

before counting objects.

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PictographsLength vs. Area

Making something 3x larger...

makes it appear 9x bigger.

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Perspective3D looks like the future...

but it distorts ratios.

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Maps and AreaWe assign importance to size...

even if the size is irrelevant.

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A momentary pause.

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ChoosyChoosersChooseCarefully.

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Anchoring Comparisons

What will you compareyour selection to?

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Exes vs. WyesComparing two things...

implies they are related.

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Axis as AlliesOne line is total cost...

The other earnings per year.

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Pick your PointsChange is really dramatic...if you pick the points.

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Insufficient Resolution

Even if you don't cheat...

You can hide by sampling.

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Choosingyour sample.The beginning and the end...Are what people will notice.

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Watchingout for axismanipulation.

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Starting from ZeroThings begin at zero...

so you can see change.

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Choosing a ZeroChoosing what counts as zero

can be just as important.

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Stretching the TruthSame data...But one appears more volatile.

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Mathis hard.

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Relative Sizes1 + 1 equals: 2 4!

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Giving Less than 100%

13 + 13 + 19 + 14equals: 59 100%!

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Everything Always Up.Adding things to each other...

Always makes them larger.

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There areothers waysto cheat.

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Breaking Norms

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Hiding Expert Information

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ConclusionsGo Here.

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Your job is to direct attention.

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Good visualizations have a point.

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There's a fine line betweenstorytelling and lying.

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My favorite example

3 versions of the same chart...

totally different stories.

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How To Not Lie:

1). The visuals should match the numbers.

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How To Not Lie:

2). Labels should be honest and accurate.

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How To Not Lie:

3). Full context should be provided.

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How To Not Lie:

4). Expert information should be conveyed.

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Thank you.

Source: http://xkcd.com/688/

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