How To Get High Probability Winning Trades...average daily turnover was $5.09 trillion for forex....
Transcript of How To Get High Probability Winning Trades...average daily turnover was $5.09 trillion for forex....
How To Get High
Probability
Winning Trades
Without being chained to your
computer all day.
By Thomas Yin
www.OnlineGuruTrader.com
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What I Did and How You Can Use It
The name of this book is “How To Get High Probability
Winning Trades: Without being chained to your computer all
day.”
And before we go any further, please let me make it very clear that
my results are not typical.
Chances are we have not met… so I am not making any claims or
implications that you will duplicate my results or achieve any results
whatsoever.
I’m going to show you what worked well for
me, and it’s my hope that you will be able to
utilize some of the information that I share
with you to get the results that you are
personally after.
So if you’re looking for one of those “get rich quick” deals, this isn’t
it.
BUT – if you’re a “real person” who’s got some money to spare as
trading capital, the ability to follow instructions, and the willingness
to work for what you want, this is for you.
In 2012, my trading raked in over 50% RETURNS on capital that
year. From 2012 to 2015, I have averaged just over 50%
RETURNS on capital per year, for a total of over 220% in 4 years.
All I used was one computer with internet connection and I trade
from home.
In this book, I’ll tell you how I did it and give you a plan that you can
use too.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
I’m going to show
you what worked
well for me.
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Part 1: Why There’s a TON of Money in Trading
The only way I can describe trading the financial markets is like this:
CASH MACHINE
And there are a few reasons (aside from my personal experience)
that make me say this.
First, there’s the amount of money trading in the financial assets
right now.
According to the 2016 Triennial Central Bank Survey,
average daily turnover was $5.09 trillion for forex.
According to Wikipedia, the top ten stock exchanges in the
world have a combined market capitalization of over $60
trillion.
And I’m just talking about the two financial assets of forex and stock
here.
Others include options, futures, cryptocurrencies, CFDs, etc…
Here’s why that’s important…
You probably hear every day that the “big thing” is running a
“Business” and owning “Real Estate”, right? Those are non-financial
assets.
According to Global Wealth Report 2017, financial asset grew
faster than non-financial asset since the financial crisis of
2008.
And as a result, through financial asset more millionaires are made.
This is also one of the reasons why the rich got richer. The poor got
poorer because the poor did not participate in the financial markets.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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So while everyone else is trying to work in a job and save up or
going for “Real Estate” or busy running a “Business”, traders are
quietly raking in tons more money… and counting.
Second, it’s got something most industries don’t have:
RECESSION PROOF
Whether the economy is in a slump or in a boom, successful traders
are able to grow their wealth.
When the economy is going strong or markets are going up, traders
can ride this growth by trading financial assets up.
And while the economy is going into a
recession or during a financial crisis, traders
can grow their wealth even faster by trading
down to profit.
That means more money to be made by
traders regardless of the economy downturn
or upturn.
And which would you rather be? In an “economic downturn” that
affects real estate prices, businesses and jobs or in a recession
proof industry that’s grows your wealth massively whether the
economy is in a down or up?
But that’s not all.
Traders can experience another thing most people miss out on:
VERY HIGH NET PROFITS
A great thing about trading is it’s very high in terms of net profits. At
least, I’ve certainly experienced that in my own trading.
One thing that can make this such a profitable business is the low
overhead.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
During a recession
or financial crisis,
traders can grow
their wealth even
faster
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Take my trading for example. I don’t need any fancy equipment,
and I don’t really use any office space at all.
I trade primarily from home
Losses from losing trades are kept at a minimal, one winning trade
is able to withstand 2 to 4 losing trade’s losses and I don’t have
any fixed costs to speak of.
My tools include a laptop and internet
connection.
So, it can be extremely profitable if you do
everything right.
8 Reasons Why You Should Trade
The fact of the matter is that if you have spare cash lying around in
the bank or stash under your bed right now, you really, really need
to put your money to work harder for you by trading the markets.
It is also way more profitable than letting someone managed it for
you or leave it with the bank.
Let me give you 7 reasons why this is true:
Reason #1: Consistent Monthly Income
Now a lot of people think trading is done based on news and
fundamental analysis.
I don’t set my trading up that way and I’m going to show you how to
avoid it. Instead…
I want to show you how to set your trading business where
it provides you with consistent monthly income.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
It can be extremely
profitable if you do
everything right
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Yes. My trading income is consistent year after year and almost
month after month.
That means I don’t have to work on a fixed pay job.
I don’t even have to worry about bill payments because my trading
income takes care of them. I’m not on the rat race that you might be
feeling you’re on right now.
I don’t ever, ever have to worry about that
because my trading gives me consistent
income.
I can make lots of losing trades and with just a few winning trades, I
will still be getting a consistent income from my trading.
So if that type of scenario sounds appealing then keep reading. I’m
going to show you exactly how to do it right here in these pages.
In 2013, my public trading account (accounts that I show to the
public) raked in over 85% returns on capital that year. Since then, I
have averaged just over 50% returns on capital per year every year.
Consistent income year in, year out.
That’s really, really hard to beat. And I do my trading part time –
mostly from home.
For most people, that’s a big reason for trading – the
predictability and never really stressing out about money.
Never being at your kid’s birthday party or something… with your
mind somewhere else… worrying about where the next dollar is
going to come from.
In the model I’m going to show you here, we just use a way of
trading that’s consistently profitable. We can trade any markets we
like to trade in, stocks, forex, options, commodities, etc.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
My trading income is
consistent so I don’t
need to have a job
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Reason #2: SPEED
With trading, it only took me a few hours of effort a day to
raked in my monthly income.
That means I didn’t have to be staring at my computer screen all
day long, I didn’t have to go through all the trouble to read about
financial news, and I didn’t have to rely on money managers.
I just went to my laptop, found some high probability winning trades,
took the trades, got some losses and some wins, and overall, I’m
net profitable.
You can implement what I’m going to show you here and start
getting winning trades NOW.
Not months from now after you’ve “finally gotten everything ready.”
Reason #3: FREEDOM
My hours for trading are flexible. I can trade anytime I want to.
When the stock market is not open, I just go to the forex market to
trade since the forex market is a 24 hours market.
I just spend a few hours doing my trading
per day from Monday to Friday.
This is truly a part time business and if I
need to take a week off and I don’t want to
trade, it’s not a big deal.
There is a tremendous amount of flexibility if you trade the way I
want to share with you here.
And that ultimately leads to TIME FREEDOM AND MENTAL
FREEDOM.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
I don’t need to force
myself to meet or
have any dealings
with anyone.
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You’re free of worry. You’re free of stress. You’re free of hassles.
So it’s a fantastic approach to this business.
Reason #4: HIGH NET PROFIT
The way I’m going to show you to structure your trading is very
profitable in terms of net profits.
Apart from the low overhead and low fixed cost I mentioned earlier,
it’s also due to my system of limiting losses to a minimal when I lose
and generating explosive profits when I win.
For example, for every 100 dollars that I lose in a trade, I am able to
get 200-400 dollars in profits when I win in a trade.
I stack the trading odds to my favour that
even if I have 40% of my trades win, I would
still be net profitable.
I am going to show you how to set this
model up in this book.
Once you get this trading model setup, I believe you will see
consistent profits and income often.
Because we limit our losses to small manageable losses, get
explosive profits when we win, and we don’t have any real
significant high fixed costs.
That means that the majority of the profits that comes from our
trading should be net profit.
That is money you can spend on whatever you want to
spend your money on.
Family vacations, cars, houses, charity – it’s your call.
That money is yours. It doesn’t go to expenses.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
The majority of the
profits from trades
should be net profit
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Reason #5: LOW CAPITAL OUTLAY
You need some spare cash and capital to start trading.
Unlike traditional investing model, you do not need a huge
amount of capital to get started.
In fact, I can start with as little as $500 to trade forex. I am not
saying I am going to do that, but I can. I prefer to use a decent
amount of at least $1000 - $2000 to enable my system to work
much better.
And for stocks, by using CFDs and the leverage it gives, I am able
to reap in around 50% or $5000 return on a $10,000 capital.
Imagine if you are trading a $100,000 account, that would be
$50,000 profits.
Isn’t this what you like? Using a small account to make money and
once you are more familiar and confident, you can scale up like me
to make so much more than your fixed job pays you.
And if you are passionate with your work, you can continue doing it
or you can turn to trading fulltime like me and spend more time
doing the things that truly make you happy.
Reason #6: MASSIVE WEALTH GROWTH
What I am going to show you in terms of trading will double the
profits you can get compared with typical traditional retail investing.
Typical traditional retail investing uses
buy-and-hold concept and its great when
markets go up. But when markets go
down, investors have to suffer drastic
losses and witness their wealth
diminished.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
Make winning trades
regardless whether
the market is up or
down market
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Trading is different.
I can trade bi-directional to profit from the markets.
If the markets are going up, I can buy first and sell later to profit
from it.
And if the markets are going down, I can sell first and buy back later
at a lower price to profit from it.
Massive wealth growth can be achieved by being able to
profit whether markets go up or down.
The way I am going to show you to trade will enable you to grow
your wealth in a bull market.
And also grow your wealth in a bear market when traditional retail
investors are losing their wealth.
This helps you to create massive wealth so much faster apart from
the fact that it is recession proof like what I mentioned earlier.
Reason #7: LOW TECH AND LOW STRESS
Trading is very low stress and low tech, you don’t need to keep on
upgrading yourself with new skillsets or learning new strategies
when you’re using this proven trading model.
You don’t have to apply complicated analysis and calculations.
I use a laptop with internet connection and a calculator.
Those are pretty much my tools for my trading.
Very low stress, low tech.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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Look, I’ve used the same simple analysis method for over 8 years.
I’ve used the same simple trading plan since 2010.
This has enabled me to find, get high probability winning trades,
limit my losses when I am wrong and rake in explosive profits when
I am right.
Once I’m in a trade, I automate it with my pre-determined stop loss
level and target profit level.
The stop loss and target profit levels will take care of that trade for
me. Either I take a small loss or I made another killing.
The approach simply isn’t that complicated.
All that overwhelming, complicated stuff that’s freaking
you out right now, you could kiss it goodbye forever and
never think about it again ever, for the rest of your life.
Because if you set up your trading model properly, you’ll have a
very stress free, low tech, easy-going fun life and you’ll have many
winning trades and consistent income as well.
Reason #8: TRADING IS EASIER THAN WORK
Last but not least, the fact of the matter is – and I’ll prove it to you
here – trading is easier to grow massive wealth than anything else
you might be trying to do at the moment.
The reason why, is because of the SIGNS OF DIRECTION.
See whenever someone trades the market, typically they’re doing it
to profit from the market right?
Well, let me tell you about it.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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The 3 Signs of Direction
When we drive from point A to point B, we look at road signs for
direction. The signs tell us which direction to go to reach point B.
All financial markets in the world move in three different directions,
up, down and sideways.
So, to know the direction of where the markets are going, we also
need to see the signs.
Each one of these, represent one of the three signs in the signs of
direction.
Sign #1: Sunny days with clear skies
You might be thinking why am I talking about the weather?
Well, to truly understand how the markets go in terms of direction,
you need to know the signs where it is going. Just like the weather.
Let me illustrate it to you here.
What are the signs you see when it is going to be a sunny day with
clear skies?
You can see the sun shining brightly and the skies are blue with
very few clouds around. You naturally feel good and wants to go out
to enjoy the sun.
Now what happens when the financial
markets have a “sunny day with clear
skies” scenario.
The markets are bullish. Investors and
traders are buying into the markets.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
Almost anyone will
make profits in a
bullish market but
that’s only in a bullish
market
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Markets just keep going higher and higher. It’s clear skies ahead for
them.
What would cause this to change?
Sign #2: Cloudy with strong winds
I am not getting to the science part of why clouds form. But soon
enough, after a period of sunny days with clear skies, white clouds
start to form.
As more and more white clouds are formed, you still get to see the
sun on and off.
These white clouds soon turn into dark clouds and they start to
cover up more of the sun.
With dark clouds looming the skies, winds start to blow. From light
winds to stronger winds. All these while the skies are going dimmer.
Can you see the signs of what is going to happen next?
Well, it’s clear isn’t it? Rain will follow.
But before we go into that, let me share with you that at this stage in
the financial markets, the buyers (the bulls) and sellers (the bears)
are constantly fighting against each other in a constant battle to
move the markets with no clear winners.
Occasionally, the buyers win the battle
and markets move up a little only to be
beaten down by the sellers.
And there are times, the sellers win the
battle and the markets move down a little
only to be brought back up by the buyers.
The markets tend to move sideways.
Till the selling intensifies…
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
Traders can utilise
their trading capital
more efficiently by
avoiding to trade in a
sideway market
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 14
Sign #3: Rainy days
When you see the skies full of dark clouds with strong winds, what
is your first conclusion?
Right! Its going to rain. The signs are clear.
What if you can see the signs so clearly in the financial markets as
well?
That dark clouds (bearish signs) have already formed to the point
that it has to rain (market sell-down).
Sellers are joining in to sell it down while loads of buyers have
turned to become sellers to unload and sell away what they have
bought much earlier.
Such a scenario is what cause a bear market.
As long as the signs show that the intensity of selling is stronger
than the buying, and with the intensity increasing, seller sell high
and buy back later at a lower price to profit.
Just like being able to read the signs
before the rain.
Wouldn’t it be fantastic to be able to read
the signs before the markets turn bullish
or bearish?
What I am going to share with you here in
this book is to show you how to see and read the signs so as to
enable you to forecast the future direction of the markets.
Before we jump right into reading the signs of the markets, we need
to understand what the drivers of these signs are. The causes of
these signs to show up.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
Traders who are able
to read the signs,
profit massively when
markets go down
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Part 2: What Successful Trading Really Is
What really drives the market to move up or down?
Is it logic deriving from numbers, fundamentals or news?
If it’s logic then everyone should derive the same conclusion and
the market should move in the direction in accordance to it, right?
Let’s take a look if this is the case.
Let me give you an example based on the U.S. stock market.
In January 2006, the Dow Jones index was hovering around 11,000
points and the S&P index was hovering around 1,300 points.
By October 2007, the Dow jones index was over 14,000 points and
the S&P index was hovering close to 1,600 points.
That’s over 25% jump on the Dow Jones and over 20% jump on the
S&P.
Fundamentals, news and numbers should be good during this
period, right?
Yet between January 2006 to October 2007, tons of negative news
and numbers were being broadcasted. Fundamentals was getting
from bad to worse.
There were lots of bad news and numbers to show fundamentals
are bad during this period but just to name a few here.
In August 2006, U.S. Home Construction Index was down over 40%
compared to a year ago.
In February 2007, HSBC losses reached $10.5 billion in its U.S.
mortgage lending business.
By March 2007, several subprime lenders declared bankruptcy.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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By April 2007, it was announced that 13 percent of subprime loans
were delinquent. That’s more than five times the delinquency rate
for home loans.
By May 2007, it was clear that major banks around the world was
affected including Citigroup (known for Citibank) yet Citigroup was
trading near its all-time high. (just 7% shy of its all-time high)
Despite all these bad fundamentals, the Dow Jones continues its
upward move and closes above 14,000 points for the first time in
history in July 2007.
Now we know, majority of the traders and investors bought instead
of selling not because of fundamentals or logic.
If it was because of logic, they would have sell it down. But it didn’t
happen.
They continued to keep buying because of greed.
According to the dictionary, greed is:
A very strong wish to continuously get more of something
In a wish to continue getting more money (in terms of profits),
majority of the traders and investors acted out of logic.
Greed causes markets to go up and become bullish.
What I want to show you here later in this book is a way to enable
you to see this so that you can get in early to buy.
And as the greed intensifies with more and more traders getting in,
the market moves up thereby creating explosive returns for you.
Let’s look at what causes the markets to go down and be bearish?
Since greed is the emotion that causes markets to go up then the
emotion of fear causes markets to go down.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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According to the dictionary, fear is:
An unpleasant emotion or thought that you have when you
are frightened or worried by something dangerous, painful,
or bad that is happening or might happen
Most people will do anything to avoid that unpleasant feeling and
emotion of fear.
Being frightened by the financial loss and pain that is happening or
might happen, traders and investors sell.
The moment they sell, that fear, almost instantly start to diminishes
and they start to feel much better.
As more fear sets in (into the market) due to prices going down,
more people get out by selling to avoid fear.
This causes the markets to be bearish. Fear became the more
dominion emotion over greed.
This is what happened in the crisis of 2007-2008 when the markets
crashed eventually.
Fear eventually became the dominion emotions and it griped the
markets and it turned into panic selling (extreme fear).
Successful trading is about being able to find out which
emotion (greed or fear) is more dominion in the markets.
If we are going to see the signs of bullish (up direction) or bearish
market (down direction) to find not just winning trades but winning
trades that give explosive returns, we have to be able to measure to
a high degree of accuracy the overall collective emotions of greed
and fear in the markets.
This I termed it the mass crowd emotion of the markets. The
emotion that is more dominion over the other will create the signs of
a bullish or bearish market.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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As long as you can ascertain or measure to a high degree of
accuracy which emotion is dominion, you will be successful and
massively profitable in trading. And I’m going to show you how easy
it is to do this and you’ll will be good at this.
Part 3: The Eight Factors Holding You Back
If trading is easy and can create massive wealth growth? Then how
come everybody’s not doing it?
How come there are lots of traders who are not successful and
profitable?
The Myths Of Trading
Well, first of all, people are paralyzed by their own beliefs about
trading which were just the myths of trading and one of them is the
SMART MYTH.
They think, “Well, successful traders must be real smart, have some
certificates or something. Therefore, surely I can’t be a trader
because I’m not smart enough.”
Understandable, right? And that’s reason number one.
Reason number two is that they believe in order to start trading and
be successful in trading, they got to have huge capital and be rich.
Third reason is that they believe they need to put in the very long
hours for trading.
The fourth reason is they always want to do more analysis to make
their analysis more complete.
Another three reasons are they think (5) trading is risky, (6) it’s
about luck, (7) there is a magic bullet for trading, and these has
deterred most from even getting started.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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The last reason being that they think they must and need to follow
news and fundamentals to order to trade successfully.
The good news is, you don’t have to believe into any of these myths
because they are not true and these are the main reasons that’s
holding people back from getting the results they want or even to
get started trading.
#1 Myth: I Got To Be Smart
So, let’s talk about the smart myth, okay?
I thought I had to be smart and had to go to a special school to be a
trader, like I needed some sort of certificate or diploma or some
permission or something like that.
Because it just sounds so complicated and hard core.
Later, after getting consecutive years of consistent returns from the
markets, I realised that this is such a shame and I’ve done it myself
but…
Most people let self-doubt stand between them and the
fortunes that they deserve.
It’s not that there’s some hidden force out there preventing us from
achieving what we’re destined to achieve and enjoying the time of
our lives. It’s between our ears; it’s the self-doubt.
Where this little voice says that we’re not good enough:
“How dare you think that you could do this?”
That’s nothing but self-doubt. It’s just this little voice in our heads
that’s, for lack of a better term, bullshitting us. But we all fall prey to
it. I know I’ve certainly done it.
We’ve spent our lives almost waiting for someone to
anoint us as worthy.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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In reality the power was within you and me all along. The fact of the
matter is this…
If you can trade and consistently rack in profits from the
markets, then that’s all you need to be.
This is more important than being smart. The results speak for
themselves, right? There is no point in trading if you are smart but
yet you are losing consistently to the markets.
Take me for example, I wasn’t smart and I almost failed my ‘O’
levels. I only made it to polytechnic because someone dropped out
and I took his place.
Otherwise, I couldn’t have gone to any polytechnic and would have
retook my ‘O’ levels for another year.
Even then, I took 3 and a half years to complete poly while others
took only 3 years.
That’s because I failed some modules and had to spend another
half a year retaking them.
After successfully getting a consistent return from the markets year
after year, I realised having a proven system, strategy or formula
was more important than being smart.
#2 Myth: I Got To Have Huge Capital And Be Rich
Another myth about trading that I believed in when I started was
that I needed to have a huge capital to start with and I needed to be
rich in order to succeed in trading.
This was not true at all which I found out much later on.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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But before I realised that it was not true, I was always losing to the
markets with a small capital from a thousand dollars to a couple of
thousand dollars.
Whenever I bust a trading account of a thousand or two, I would
always tell myself these, “If only I had more capital in this account, I
would have been profitable. It’s because I’m having a small capital,
that’s why I’m unable to fight back, to have enough capital to get
back into the market to grab the wins and recoup my losses back.”
I thought to myself that since I kept losing with a small starting
capital to trade, that I would fair so much better and beat the
markets starting with a huge capital.
In order to raise capital, I became a real estate agent and worked
very hard at it.
In 2009, working as a real estate agent, I made over $200,000. In
2008, I made over $300,000.
In 2008 to 2009, within two years, I made more than half a million
dollars just working my butt off being a real estate agent.
By the end of 2009, I told myself, finally I had enough capital. A
capital that I felt was huge enough that no matter what happens to
the markets, I would be succeeding in trading.
Finally, I would be profitable. I would be able to withstand losses
due to a huge starting capital and be able to fight back to make
profits and rake in returns on my capital.
Based on what I made from my real estate sales, I put about half of
them to trade the markets (around $240,000), and yet more than
half of it were lost to the markets.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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Back then, I couldn’t figure out why I could still lose to the markets
when I have such a huge capital to begin with.
Till later when I started to trade profitably (even with a small capital)
then I realised that, it doesn't matter whether I have a huge capital
or a small capital.
The key to trading is not about the amount of capital you start with
but to have a system or strategy so that you can consistently profit
from the markets.
I realized that this is not only applicable to trading that you need to
have a system to be successful. It applies to my real estate
business back in 2008, 2009 as well.
I realized during the two years when I made the half a million
dollars, I had a system in place to consistently generate the sales
figures I wanted.
If you have the right system and strategy in place, you can
do well in any industry, the same for trading.
I always believed that trading was not for a poor guy like me.
I thought that the rich could go into trading because it was a rich
man’s game.
And that a poor guy like me would be laughed at if I went into
trading.
And I didn't have much money to trade when I started. I was born
poor. My parents always quarrelled about money.
My life wasn't as comfortable as it is now compared with when I
started.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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Back then, my family was so poor that me and my brother had to
share one tiny plate of chicken rice at a coffee shop, just because
we didn't have enough money to buy a second plate.
During my younger years while I was in poly, I was forced to work
as a factory operator and a bartender just so I could pay off my poly
tuition fees.
Through all these high-labour jobs, I learned the value of money
and the importance of hard work and never to give to up.
Now, the reason I'm sharing these with you is because most of you
are not as poor as I was when I started and if I can be successful in
trading (even though I was poor when I begin), you definitely can.
Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft once said this,
"If you were born poor, it's not your fault, but if you die
poor, it's your mistake."
When it comes to trading, nobody cares whether you are rich or
poor, fat or thin, tall or short, good-looking or not.
The important thing is whether you can trade successfully and be
consistently profitable.
So, don’t ever feel inferior and look down on yourself that you are
not fit for trading just because you start from a humble background.
I wouldn’t be enjoying the time of my life if I had held on to this self-
limiting belief.
Trading is anybody’s game and it’s not only
for the rich.
It is based on your ability to profit from the
markets and that’s it.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
Trading is anybody’s
game
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 24
#3 Myth: Long Hours Needed To Trade Successfully
And a lot of people think that they will need long hours to trade to
be profitable.
You know what I mean – spend numerous hours to get in touch
closely with the news, know how to interpret those financial
numbers and economic fundamentals.
That’s what I thought trading was. Sure, there is a lot of that in
trading but not all of it. And it is not the only way to trade.
If it was the only way to trade, I probably won’t be trading anymore.
Because during my real estate years, even though the money was
good, I hated the job because of the long hours it took me.
I had to work late nights, weekends and even public holidays
because that’s the time when clients are free to meet.
I practically worked almost 365 days in a year.
Because of that, I barely had time to spend with my loved ones.
And the thing I hated the most was that I barely had time to spend
on my trading.
However, when it comes to trading, you do not need long hours to
trade. Here is a screen shot of the trade results that I did on the 1st
of May (Singapore Holiday - Labour Day).
I woke up around 11:00 a.m., did my morning rituals, went for my
late breakfast, then I proceeded to power up my laptop and look at
the markets for the next 10 to 20 minutes.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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While I was looking at the markets, I saw this trade on crude oil. Put
in my trade with my stop loss order, and after that, me and my
family went out for the day because it was a Labour Day holiday in
Singapore.
Had a late lunch while we were out. It was around 5:00 p.m. when
we came back.
I went to my laptop to accessed my trading account, looked at my
trade I did earlier, saw the profit and got out with a profit of US$800.
You can see from the screenshot, I traded at 12:38 p.m. and got out
at 5:14 p.m. The key thing here is that I didn't use much of my time
to do this trade or any of my other trades.
For this trade, it only took me roughly ten minutes to spot the trade
and another ten minutes to put in the trade. A total of just twenty
minutes.
After that, I went to do my personal stuff, came back, and used
another five minutes to close the trade to take my profit, and that's
it.
When I am in the trade, do I monitor it?
I can if I want to but I don’t have to monitor it if I don’t want to
because I had my stop loss in place.
I do not need to be staring at my trading screen while I am in a
trade as staring at the screen does not help the price to move at all.
After I am in a trade, I can go do the things I want to do, like playing
with my kids, watch a Netflix movie online or even go hang out with
my friends.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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I hope I am not over simplifying things here for you. Trading does
take time. But not the kind of long hours compared with a 9 to 5 job
or any typical jobs out there.
If you include the travel time to the work place and the unexpected
delays and hiccups, people in actual fact spend more than 8 hours
for the 9 to 5 job, isn’t it?
#4 Myth: Always Do More Analysis
A typical beginner or trader who just started, will use simple
analysis to trade and what happens after? They made a few losing
trades, lost some money and realised that results were not up to
their expectations.
They decided that maybe the analysis was not enough, it was not
complete. That's why they weren’t getting the results that they
wanted. So, what did they do?
They proceeded to put in more analysis, thinking that with more
analysis, the analysis might be more complete. It could be enough
analysis and it would yield better results.
What happened was that it started to take more time because of
more analysis and yet the results did not improve.
What would the trader think when results don't improve? The trader
might think that the analysis might not be enough and is not
complete yet.
Naturally, the next step that the trader will do is to put in more
analysis, and this goes on and on. Results don't reach their
expectations and they would add even more analysis.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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Here's what I found out to be true.
Any system that you adopt must be simple enough to use
or it's not use.
It's not about using more.
It's about using the right ones and using them the right way. I'm
going to show you how to do it the right way later on in this book.
Here's what I believed that every successful trader’s journey is.
Every trader starts as a beginner. They started with simple analysis
and wasn't getting the results that they want.
What they did is to put in more analysis and make their analysis
more complex, having the thought that more analysis makes their
analysis better and more complete.
When results don't show improvement, they put in even more
analysis. This goes on till most of them will give up.
A small minority of them realized that this might not be the path to
go towards to and decided to simplify their analysis. After they did
that, their results instead of getting worse, improved slightly.
They continued to simplify their analysis even more and realized
that results improved from there on.
After taking out all the unnecessary analysis, leaving the right ones,
the trader realized that he started to make money and profits from
the market.
This is when the trader continues to maintain his analysis as a very
simple analysis and keep his analysis at a low level of complexity.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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Like I said earlier, it's not about using more. It's about using the
right ones and using them the right way. I'm going to show you how
to do it the right way later on. The right way is much easier and is
much faster and better too.
#5 Myth: Trading Is Risky
The myth which affects our trading psychology a lot that deter most
people to even go into trading is they think that trading is risky.
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
I have the privilege of going skydiving and when I was in the sky
preparing for the skydive, I was really afraid, but I told myself this is
something that I wanted to do in my lifetime. So, I went for it.
During the flight up, I asked my skydiving instructor, "Is skydiving
risky?" He told me the same thing. Risk comes from not knowing
what you are doing. He said that he knows exactly what he is doing.
So, skydiving for him is really safe.
He goes on to tell me that he rather skydives than drive a car,
because he feels that skydiving is safer than driving a car. When I
proceeded to ask him why, he told me that he knows more about
skydiving than he knows about driving a car, because he rarely
drives a car, even though he knows how to drive.
That conversation reinforced my conviction that trading is very safe
for me. I have never viewed trading as risky because I have
acquired the skill set and system in place to protect myself against
risky trading.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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In terms of trading, anyone can have the ability to trade the markets
safely, but you need to know how to do it. That's what I'm going to
share with you later on.
#6 Myth: Trading Is All About Luck
There is also the myth that trading is just like gambling. It's about
luck.
Since we are talking about gambling, let's probe a little into the
business model of a casino.
I will say that it's fair to say that in a single bet, the casino has a
chance to lose and a chance to win. If that’s the case, is it really a
game of chance and luck for the casino? What do you think is the
outcome for them after one year even though the casino sometimes
can win and sometimes can lose in a single bet? Will they be in a
loss or will they make a profit?
I'm pretty sure that most people will agree that 99.9% of the time,
that the casino will make a profit after one year, year after year,
even though they are in the business of gambling and chance.
I mean most of us know that it is a massively profitable business for
the casino business owners and operators and that’s why once they
are in business, you rarely see them out of business.
But most people also view this as a luck business for themselves.
This is not what the owners and operators of the casino viewed the
business as. They viewed this as a business of consistent income
where every game that they offer, has a probability to win higher
than a probability to lose, even though in a single bet they could
lose and they could win as well.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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Since all the games in the casino has more than 50% probability of
winning, in the long run, after thousands or millions of bets (after
stacking the odds thousands or millions time in their favour), they
will come out on top and be profitable, and have consistent income
from the millions of bets on one game.
This can be the same for trading. Because trading is not about luck,
but about the probability and having an edge on your side. Just like
the casino, they have an unfair advantage even though they can
still lose in every single bet. An unfair advantage that stacks the
odds in their favour thousand or million times over. That’s why in
the long run they make massive consistent profits.
Trading is a business (just like the casino)
that makes massive consistent profits when
the trader has an edge, an unfair
advantage, whenever he/she makes a
trade.
Now, let's see how the casino model is so
that we can structure our trading just like the
casino to have an unfair advantage.
The first thing that a casino has, is a game plan where they have an
overall plan of all the possible scenarios that their game offers.
From there, they set game rules to make sure they have an unfair
advantage.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
Trading is a business
that makes massive
consistent profits
when the trader has
an edge, an unfair
advantage over the
markets
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 31
Finally, the odds that they will pay out, they have done the
mathematical calculation such that with the odds pay out, they will
have an unfair advantage as well.
With all these key components in place, the game plan, the
rules and the odds pay-out, the casino has a more than
50% probability of winning in every single bet.
An unfair advantage that’s stacked after thousands of bets that they
will definitely be on top and be making a profit from it.
In terms of trading, we must model how casino owners operate their
casino.
In terms of game plan, we need to have a trading plan, to map out
all the possible scenarios that will happen so that we can make
plans to react to it in a way that give us an unfair advantage and
stack the odds on our side.
With the game plan, we set game rules where in terms of trading,
we termed them as trading rules, rules like rules of entry, exit,
money management rules, etc. We set up all the rules to our own
advantage.
Finally, in terms of odds pay out for trading, it's what we called risk-
to-reward ratio which I'm going to share with you later on. But just to
touch a little bit on what it means here. The risk-to-reward ratio is
how much you are going to get when you win and how much you're
going to lose when you lose.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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I was able to design my trading properly in a way that the trading
plan, the rules and the odds pay out (the risk-to-reward ratio) is
stacked in my favour and that’s why I was consistently beating the
market.
Just like the casino operator even though every single trade there's
a chance for me to lose, but because I have a higher than 50%
probability of winning, after many trades is almost 99% that I will
make a profit.
This can happen for you too and I’m going to show you how I
design my trading plan, my rules and the exact risk to reward ratio
that I used in the past and currently still using.
#7 Myth: If I find The Magic Bullet, I’ll Be Successful
Most people go into trading trying to find the magic bullet which is a
myth. The get-rich-quick kind of mentality is wrong as trading
success does not need a magic bullet.
I believe the secret to the game of life and trading as well, is when
you have the system or strategy to create your own source of
income. Then you will truly have freedom and full control of your
life.
A lot of people do not know the importance of this. A system,
strategy or formula produce a certain type of result most of the time
if not all the time. Some people do not have a system or strategy or
formula and that’s why they kept getting random inconsistent results
which most of the time were poor results.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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96% of all failures are a result of not having a system. You
fail by default without having a system.
People who have a system automatically have a better chance of
getting good results compared with those who do not have a
system. Some people have a system to get good results. These
people who got good results, kept getting good results or results
that they want, because they followed the same system, the same
process that produced the results in the first place.
Having a system (strategy) is the key to success in everything and
anything. Just like my real estate sales, I found a system (strategy)
and was successful, not because I was good, but because I've used
and followed the system (strategy) my sales manager taught me.
This is the same for everything including trading.
If there is such a thing as the “magic bullet”, then the “magic bullet”
is the system, strategy or formula when applied, will produce the
same similar results time and again.
#8 Myth: News And Fundamentals Move The Markets
The last myth of trading I want to share with you here is that a lot of
people think that they need to follow news and fundamentals to
profit from the markets. I was one of them in the past but not
anymore.
We really need to understand what make any markets move. I'm
sure by now you will agree that emotions such as fear causes
market to fall and greed causes market to rise (as I’ve shared on
this earlier in this book).
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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And I'm sure you will agree that price already reflects all market
information, including fear and greed, fundamentals like earnings
per share, potential earnings ratio or even the news, they are all
reflected into price.
If that is the case, then the way price moves are all anyone would
need to make a trade. This can only be achieved by using technical
analysis which reflects current and historical price.
I'm not saying don't use fundamentals, but you can use
fundamentals for overall macro view, but not for timing, because
fundamentals are almost never on time.
When it comes to timing, it is more of momentum, and price is the
best way to see momentum. That's why we use technical analysis.
I just want you to know that we are just scratching the surface here.
Are you ready for some trading basics before I jump into my trading
system, my strategy? If you are, let's get started.
Part 4: How You Want To Do Your Analysis?
There are two main analysis types for trading. One of them is
fundamental analysis.
Fundamental analysis is done through news reporting on numbers.
Numbers like revenue numbers, earnings and profit numbers for
companies if you are trading stocks and economic numbers like
jobs numbers, employment numbers if you are trading forex.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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You will have to be familiar with price to earnings ratio, earnings per
share, non-farm payroll, FOMC meeting and its decisions on
interest rate, etc. Not only familiar but also interpret them to come to
a conclusion to trade it.
Basically, it’s looking at numbers, following news and interpreting
what it would mean for the markets.
Like what I mentioned earlier in this book (under part 2), the
fundamentals showed that it was getting from bad to worse before
the crisis happened in 2007-2008.
Yet prices continued to move up another 20% to 25% over almost a
2-year period till the crisis happened.
The fundamentals did work but you just don’t know when it will
work.
You know why it worked after it worked but you just don’t
know when it will work
This is due to the time it takes for fundamentals to work. It may take
a day, a week, a month or even years and in the case of the crisis
of 2007-2008, it’s about two years.
And this is the reason why I do not use fundamental analysis as it
doesn’t really show me when it will work.
Now I’m not saying fundamental analysis don’t work here. It works
but you just don’t know when. And timing to me is important. I’m
sure you want your trade to move at the time you trade.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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Another better way is by using the signs of fear and greed which I
mentioned earlier in this book.
This can be done through technical analysis.
This is the framework where traders study price movement.
The theory is that a trader can look at historical price movements
together with current price movements to determine current trading
conditions and future price movements.
The basis for using technical analysis is that all past and current
market information (market information in terms of mainly greed and
fear) are reflected in price.
And if price reflects all the information (including greed and fear)
that is out there, then analysing the way price moves (whether
greed or fear is more dominion) is all a trader would need to make a
trade.
Technical analysis normally involves charts. Charts are the easiest
way to visualise historical data and current data in a graphic form.
Now you must be thinking “Technical analysis! Charts! It must be
complicated and hard to even understand”.
Here’s one thing I found out about technical analysis and is this.
If technical analysis is complicated and hard, it will not
work.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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And I am speaking from experience. I’ve tried complicated charting
by using numerous indicators and drawings on my charting. And it
did not work for me.
Charting only started to work for me (through a lot of trial and error
testing) after I started to keep it simple.
And with the right combination of indicators with the right
parameters, I was able to consistently get high probability winning
trades that gives me an explosive return.
And that’s what I am going to show you here.
In terms of technical analysis, there are three types, line, bar, and
candlestick.
This is a line chart.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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This is a bar chart.
This is a candlestick chart.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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In terms of technical analysis and charting, we always use
candlestick. Why? Because it can extract more information from the
charts in terms of the opening price, closing price, highest price,
and lowest price, and also gauge the strength of the market, etc.
Let me show you what are the information that we can find, read
and use in a candlestick. The market always open at a specific
price. In this example, the opening price is $10, termed as the
open. During the day, it can fluctuate up and down depending on
the buyers and sellers. The highest point that it reached during the
day will be termed the high and the lowest point (price level) that it
transacts at during the day will be termed the low. Eventually, it will
close at a certain price. The price level that it closed at, we termed it
as the close. This is a typical information that you can extract from
a candlestick.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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How a candlestick is being drawn is by forming a rectangle or
square, joining the price levels of the open and close.
Using candlestick charts, you can also see different patterns of
whether it's up or downtrend.
This is a typical chart and is a chart of Apple. For those beginners
who do not understand or know how to look at charts, I’ll give you a
quick jumpstart. At the bottom is a scale for time and at the right-
hand side, there is the pricing scale for showing the price of Apple.
Whenever you use a chart, the bottom is always showing time from
the earliest (extreme bottom left) to the latest (extreme bottom
right). On the right-hand side, it's always showing price from the
lowest price (at the extreme bottom right) to the highest price (at the
extreme top right).
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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If you look at this example, Apple from around $100, as time goes
by, from October, to November, it goes up, to December, it
continues to go up. Come January, it come back down a little bit,
and February, it continues moving up. From low price to high price
as time goes by, what do you think is the trend for this? Is it in an
uptrend or a downtrend? Definitely it's in an uptrend.
Here's another chart of Apple. From high price as time goes by, it
goes to lower price. Definitely from here, we can easily see very
clearly that it is in a downtrend.
By just using candlestick charts with its price bars, we can easily
see whether price tends to go up or down (even without any
indicators or analysis).
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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The 3 Pillars Of Trading Success
I’ve designed my trade-to-win system based on what I termed the
three pillars of trading success. The first pillar is systematic market
analysis. Second pillar is money management. The third is an elite
trader’s psychology.
#1 Pillar: Systematic Market Analysis
I break down my systematic market analysis into 3 main
techniques. The 3 techniques are trend
for direction, profit zone for timing and
precise trigger for trade entry.
#1 Technique: Trend For Direction
In terms of trend, I use one indicator to determine trend. But before
we go into that, this is something that you must know. In an
uptrend, prices are going up. We only look for buying opportunities.
In a downtrend, prices are going down. We only look for selling
opportunities. Always remember, trend is our friend. Always go with
the trend and never go against the trend.
So which indicator do I use to determine trend? Once I share this
with you, some of you will say, "This is very common." And I'm
going to give it to you right now. It's simple moving average.
This is a very common indicator. I do agree with you. But the thing
is this, most people (those who lost to the markets) who use it, use
the wrong parameters (or wrong combination of parameters) or they
are using it wrongly.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
Trend is your friend.
Never go against the
trend.
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 43
Let me shared a little about my testing phase when I was trying to
use this indicator. But before that, for those who are new to moving
average, moving average has one parameter that you can set and
you can set it to any parameters that you want. And the cool thing is
that once you set it, it is automatically plotted so you do not have to
draw anything yourself.
Coming back to my testing phase when I started using it. I started
by using two moving averages (the same indicator plotted twice
with different parameters).
What I did was that I set a parameter of 1 for one of the moving
averages and set a parameter of 100 for another one of the moving
averages. 1 and 100 and after I tested it out, it didn’t work. So, I
proceeded with 2 and 100, it didn’t work too. I carried on with 3 and
100, followed by 4 and 100, 5 and 100 and all the way to 99 and
100, it didn’t work.
I decided to continue with 1 and 99, 2 and 99, 3 and 99, 4 and 99, 5
and 99, all the way to 98 and 99.
I kept testing it out with different combinations. It was very tedious
because I needed to use it to test on real-time market scenario (live
market scenario). It took a long time of around seven years to really
come to a right combination of parameters for this pair of moving
averages.
That’s why I can assure you that it has been battle-tested and I
have been using it for the past recent years since 2010, and it has
been very successful for me and my community of traders to
determine trend and to trade successfully on the markets.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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Remember, it's not just the parameters. It's the right combination of
the right parameters and using it correctly that make it highly
accurate. And here it is.
I used one moving average at a parameter of 21 (the dotted line)
and another moving average at a parameter of 100 (the continuous
line). After entering the parameters, you will see that there's two
lines automatically plotted so you do not have to draw the line
yourself. Then you might ask “how do I use it to determine uptrend
or downtrend?” I’m coming to that now.
At the point that the 21-moving average (dotted line) goes above
the 100-moving average (continuous line), it is considered to be in
an uptrend.
When the 21-moving average (dotted line) goes below the 100-
moving average (continuous line), it is considered to be in a
downtrend.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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In an uptrend, we want to look for buying opportunities and, in a
downtrend, we want to look for selling opportunities.
If you look at the last traded price at the extreme right-hand side of
the chart (the chart on the previous page), it shows it is at $108.00
exactly on the 31st of October.
And it's in an uptrend. Because the 21-moving average is above the
100-moving average.
After that (look at the chart below), it went all the way up to $133.00
on the 23rd of February, which was an increase of $25 per share in
less than 4 months.
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Imagine if you have bought just 100 shares of Apple on the 31st of
October and sold it off on the 23rd of February, it would have netted
you a profit of $2500 in less than 4 months.
Can you see how powerful just this one technique alone is?
I bet you are getting more excited to learn the next one.
So, let’s get on to it.
#2 Technique: Profit Zone For Timing
Even after we have determined the direction we want, we still need
to time the market for the profit zone (good entry price) to enter the
market. And for timing for profit zone, I use what I termed the
market mood. So, what is mood? And when should you or anyone
buy base on mood?
Basically, when the mood of the market is bullish, the market is
going to go up. When it's bearish, the market is going to go down.
Most people know this but do not use them correctly.
When I want to trade up based on trend and direction, I find
markets that are going to be bullish.
And when I want to trade down based on trend (direction), I find
markets that are going to be bearish.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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I’m going to show you how I do that now by introducing to you the
second and last indicator I used for my analysis. This second
indicator that I’ve used has in the past made me a lot of money and
currently still making me a killing.
The key thing is that, I’ll say it here again, how you use it and use it
the right way. A lot of people are using it wrongly and that's why
they are not making money by using the same indicator. “Yes, it's
also a very common indicator.” Let me show you right away. It is
MACD.
In terms of MACD, I don't just use MACD. I only use the MACD
histogram. From here, you can see the MACD histogram being
plotted.
And for this indicator, I do not have to set or change any parameter.
I just leave it as default which is (12, 26, 9). So, for this indicator,
just click on the indicator and plot it on the chart without editing its
parameters.
Let me show you how you can use MACD histogram to go for the
profit zone (good entry price) and to know when to go in, to buy in
an uptrend or to sell in a downtrend.
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Based on the chart (after macd histogram is plotted), you will see all
these down mountains and up mountains. Based on what I’ve
shared with you earlier, it is in an uptrend.
And we only look at the down mountains (which I’ve circled it out for
you) in an uptrend.
In an uptrend, the down mountains are the profit zone for us to buy.
In a downtrend, we look at the up mountains to sell.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
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If you based on the down mountains to buy (refer to the chart
above), you will see that you are almost buying at the lowest price
points where it is about to bounce up. Isn’t it awesome to know that
just by applying this, you will almost always get to buy at the lowest
price points and sell at the highest price points?
Based on this chart, it is in an uptrend, and you know that the profit
zone (entry zone) is within the down mountains. As each bar
represents one day of data, now, the question is, there're so many
days (bars) that I can get in to buy, which day do I get in to buy
then?
#3 Technique: Precise Trigger For Trade Entry
This brings me to my “precise trigger” where I use my unique “price
action” and “multi-dimension” for my precise trigger for trade entry.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 50
For my unique price action to happen, I must first identify a bullish
bar for an uptrend and a bearish bar for a downtrend. Using the
same chart above again, the bullish bars are the bars that are white
(transparent) in colour. In tradingview or most charts that come with
colour, it is normally in green.
Another way to check for bullish bars is
by comparing the close and the open.
The value of the close is always higher
than the value of the open. If the close is
higher than the open, it will be a bullish
bar.
If the value of the close is lower than the value of the open, then it
will be a bearish bar (black colour in this book) and normally
coloured in red when you use tradingview or other charting tool that
comes with colour. Here in this book, it is in black as you can see in
the chart.
Based on the chart of Apple, it is in the uptrend and I want to buy
when it's in a down mountain for the MACD histogram. And when
we project from the down mountain up to the price bar, I know that
there's ONLY a few bars left that I can get in to buy. Definitely, in
terms of buying, I do not want to get in to buy the bearish bars
which are the black bars (red bars in tradinview.com). It is only the
white or transparent bars (green bars in tradingview.com) that I will
get in to buy. Easily, I would have eliminated at least another 30%
to 60% of all the bars (days) in the profit zone that I’m able to get in
to buy.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
Price action is a way
to see if price is ready
to move in a certain
direction
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 51
Can you see what I’m trying to do here?
I’m trying to narrow down the bars that I can get in to buy. So that
eventually, I was left with a few to get in to buy.
Let me explain it more clearly for you so you can understand this
better.
In the example of Apple, I saw that it was in an uptrend and decided
that I was going to buy the stock. But I can’t get in to buy just
because it was in an uptrend. Because I cannot be buying the stock
every single day. So, using profit zone (entry zone), I was able to
know roughly the “zone” I was going to get in to buy. But the “zone”
still shows quite a number of days (bars) for entry and I do not want
to be getting in to buy every single day of the “zone”. So, by looking
for the bullish bars in the “zone”, I was able to limit to a few days
(the bullish bars) that I would get in to buy.
Further narrowing can be done so that there is only 1-3 days to get
in to buy.
Let me continue with my “precise trigger” as once you’ve learnt and
applied all the techniques in my analysis method correctly, you
probably would be left with only 1-3 days to get in to trade just like
me.
In my “precise trigger”, apart from price action, I also have multi-
dimension.
In theory for multi-dimension, it's basically having two views, a
macro view (the big picture) and a micro view (the zoom-in picture),
to find the best entry point. When you combine the two views
together, it will increase your accuracy.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 52
The concept behind this is to put the chart into a microscope and
look through the microscope to look at the micro view to see
whether it can reveal a similar or a different pattern. If it's a similar
pattern, then we want to get in. If it's a different pattern, we do not
want to get in to trade it.
Let me give you an example. The chart that follows is a chart of
NTRS. You can see very clearly that this is in an uptrend. Also, we
set this as a one-week chart (under timeframe, we set to 1 week).
Meaning, every bar here represents one week of data. Every 1
week 1 bar is drawn.
The reason for this is because we want to look at the big picture
first (the zoom-out picture) before proceeding to look at whether we
want to trade it.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 53
At the extreme right-hand side of the chart, I have circled the
portion where we are going to zoom in (by changing the timeframe
of the chart to a smaller timeframe) to see what is the pattern after
zooming in.
To zoom in, we set the timeframe of the chart to 1 day instead of 1
week. This would mean that the chart would now show one day of
data and information for each bar. Below is the chart after “zooming
in”.
After zooming in (which is the micro view), we can see that it is also
still in the uptrend though it has corrected and came down quite a
bit.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 54
So, in the macro view, it was in an uptrend and in the micro view, it
was also in an uptrend. Since both views are showing the same
pattern (an uptrend pattern), I would want to trade this.
These few techniques in my analysis method have in the past and
present helped me to racked in massive amount of profits from the
market and my wish is that they will help you a lot too. Because
even now as you read this book, I am still using them and I believe I
will keep using them in the future.
Main reason is that they are simple and easy to understand and
apply and it does not take too much time to apply them.
That's systematic market analysis for you. And this is just
determining direction and timing to trade the market.
Part 5: How To Double Your Capital Quickly
Having good analysis is just part of the
puzzle as I can assure you that if you
have good analysis coupled with bad
money management, you will not do well
in trading.
I say this because I personally witnessed it myself in the past.
There are many reasons to this and I will give you one here.
Example, you win a little when you win (as you are too eager to get
out of the market when you win). You lose a lot more when you lose
(as you are willing to wait for it to turn into profit).
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
Good risk
management gives
the trader an unfair
advantage
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 55
In other words, you can be good in your analysis and you can still
be losing consistently to the markets.
Unless you have a solid money management plan. You are almost
certain to double, triple or quadruple your capital with a solid money
management plan coupled with good analysis method.
A very important part of money management is having a good
trading plan (game plan).
In terms of trading plan, you must have an entry point (entry level),
which is already covered in my market analysis portion earlier just
now.
Apart from having an entry, you need to have your exits. In terms of
exits in my system, I have designed five types of different exits and
the two must-have exits are as follows.
One exit that I must have is my target profit exit. This is where I exit
with profits. Normally, I do not have a single target profit exit. I use
multiple exits so that I can turn my trade into a risk-free trade. Or
you can call it a FREE trade.
Yes, you read it correctly. A FREE trade.
Let me show you how this is possible.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 56
Let me give you an example. Let’s say shares of XYZ is now at $10.
Trader buys 100 shares of XYZ at $10. If XYZ price goes up to $20
and the trader sells 50 shares at $20. This means that the trade will
have made $10. Why $10? It's because he bought it at $10 and he
sold it at $20. So, he has a $10 profit per share. Then his total profit
for the 50 shares that he sold based on the $10 profit per share will
be $500 (50 shares X $10 profit) of profit.
This trade is actually considered a risk-free trade. Because even if
the trader loses his $10 per share investment, overall, he loses
nothing.
Here’s why. If he lost $10 per share with a balance of 50 shares, it
means his shares goes to $0 per share. That will cost him to lose
$500 (which is 50 shares X $10). But he lost nothing because
before that, he has already got a partial profit-taking of $500 as
mentioned earlier.
So even if the share price goes to $0 from $10, it would not cause
him to lose anything, it means it’s a free trade to him. A risk-free
trade. It also means that this trade would either make more profits
for the trader or breakeven and the trader would not lose anything.
Isn’t it an exciting feeling to know that you can make more profits
while not worrying about going into a loss at all? And if it is, then the
next exit is even more exciting.
Let’s get to it.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 57
Another must-have exit is stop-loss exit. In terms of stop-loss, most
people are using it just to cut their losses, to get out of the market,
but you can also use it to protect your profits as well.
The primary function of a stop loss is,
number one, to protect against big losses,
but it can also protect profits. I use stop
loss to minimize my risk, and at the same
time, to maximize my profits.
Let me give you another example to help
you understand it better. Based on what I’ve shared with you just
now, let’s say shares of XYZ has gone up to $30. And the trader
puts a stop loss to sell at $20. If price drops back from $30 to $20,
the trader will sell XYZ at $20 due to the stop-loss order placed at
$20. If that happens, trader makes a profit because his buying price
is $10 and he sold it at $20.
This time, it is not a stop loss. The stop loss is performing as a
function of a profit protection mechanism, which is a profit of $10
per share (since the trader bought the shares at $10 per share).
Basically, a stop loss, apart from using it mainly for stop loss, it can
also be used for profit protection. In this case, what if XYZ price
goes up to $40 or even $50? The stop loss order can keep on
shifting upwards to protect even more profits.
Another important part of your trading plan is that you must decide
the dollar amount to risk for the trade. In layman terms is how much
you are willing to lose in a trade. Once you decide the dollar amount
to risk for the trade, you will be able to determine the number of
shares or contracts that you can buy.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
A stop loss order
allows you to cut your
losses and even
protect your profits at
a price level you want
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 58
Typically, we use 1 to 2% of our capital. If capital is $100,000 and
we use 1% for each trade then we are risking $1000 for each trade.
Once we derive our dollar amount of risk for each trade, we can
proceed to calculate the number of shares to buy.
Let me give you an example. Let's say shares of XYZ is at $1. Entry
price level to buy is at $1. Let’s say stop loss level is at 90 cents
meaning if it drops to 90 cents, we will get out of the trade with 10
cents ($1 - $0.90) per share loss.
And with the dollar amount to risk for the trade as $1,000, we start
to calculate the difference between the entry price level and stop
loss price level so that we know the risk per share that we are going
to take.
A simple calculation of $1 minus 90 cents, which is the entry price
minus the stop loss price, we will know that this is a difference of 10
cents. This just means that we are risking 10 cents per share for the
trade.
If we are risking 10 cents per share, how many shares can we buy?
We proceed to do another simple calculation which is the dollar
amount of risk over the difference between the entry and the stop.
This means we will use $1000 divided by $0.10.
And this will be 10,000 shares. Meaning, if you buy 10,000 shares
at $1 and price reach your stop loss at 90 cents, you will get out
with the losses of 10 cents per share and you will lose exactly
$1,000, which is what you already expected beforehand.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 59
Now, let me ask you, if you know beforehand how much you are
going to lose, will you feel safer? Will you feel more confident in
your own trade? I bet you would.
Most people don't do this calculation so they do not know how
much risk they are taking when they go into their trade. By the time
they lose in their trade, they suddenly find
themselves losing more than the $1,000,
$2,000 or even more than $10,000. And
they grumbled that they weren't prepared
to lose that amount of money.
Next you must know is your risk-to-reward ratio. This is a very
important component in my trading plan. Why? Because like what I
shared earlier in the casino model, the risk-to-reward ratio is
actually the odds pay-out in the casino model.
By determining this the right way, it's going to stack an unfair
advantage on your favour. But first, you got to understand what is
risk-to-reward. Like the previous example, if you risk a thousand
dollars, and instead of losing that $1,000, you get $1,000 of profit,
the risk to reward ratio is actually one is to one, or what we call
100% risk to reward. If you risk $1,000, and you don't lose that
$1,000 yet you make $2,000 in profit, then the risk-to-reward ratio is
1:2, or 200%.
I'm going to give you the number that we always aim at, for me and
my community of traders. And we are still using it currently and I’m
sure we will keep using it in the future. Let me give it to you right
now.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
People who fail to
plan, are planning to
fail
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 60
Always aim to get at least 200% or more, or what we say in terms
of risk to reward ratio, at least one is to two or more.
Let me show you why this is very
important. Let's say you are going to
make 10 trades with a risk of $1,000 per
trade. Meaning, in every losing trade,
you are going to lose $1,000. Let's say
that in every winning trade, you maintain
a one is two risk-to-reward ratio, meaning a 200% reward (profit) of
your risk amount, which is $2,000 profit.
And let's say that you have a low accuracy in your trades and you
only have 40% win rate, meaning you only win 4 trades out of 10
trades and loses 6 out of 10 trades.
Your 4 winning trades (out of 10 trades) will make you $8,000
because you maintained a 200% risk to reward and your 6 losing
trades will cause you to lose $6,000.
Overall, you will still make $2,000 of profit ($8000 profit in 4 trades
minus $6000 loss in 6 trades) even though you have a low accuracy
and only have a 40% win rate.
So always maintain a risk to reward of at least one is to two or
200%. It may sound very simple but I can't stress enough how
important this is even though it is simple. Let me just say this. If you
got nothing out of this book so far (which is unlikely), this is going to
help you a lot if you only follow this.
Remember, I mentioned at least, so you can go for 300% or even
400% or more.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
Risk to reward in your
trades is one of the
keys to consistent
trading income
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 61
Now once I’ve done my analysis, I proceed to do my risk
management mainly doing up my trading plan so I have an overall
view (based on the plan done up) of what to expect after I’m in the
trade.
Part 6: How To Have An Elite Trader’s Psychology
Sounds simple isn’t it? Then everyone who follows this should be
making massive profits.
On theory it should be the case but not in real life. This is because
not everyone has the right psychology to follow it through to the
end.
Here’s a quote from Tony Robbins, one of the best success
coaches the world has ever seen.
Success in life is 80% psychology and 20% mechanics –
what you do doesn’t matter if you aren’t in the right
mindset.
That is why having the right psychology, an elite trader’s
psychology is one of the most important aspect in trading success.
And this brings me to the last pillar of my trading success which is
to have an elite trader psychology. To me, I split “an elite trader
psychology” into 3 sections. They are mindset, emotions and
beliefs.
The mindset and beliefs section have been covered earlier in this
book (in part 3) when I shared with you the myths and beliefs of
trading. Please go back to read through them again if you need to.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 62
And on the topic of emotion, I noticed that this is one of the main
reasons why people's psychology is poor in their own trading.
And the main thing that affects emotion is stress.
Now let me share this biology theory/lesson which is a fact. When
someone experiences stress, what happens to the person's body is
that it will release a hormone called cortisol, which within minutes
will halve his/her IQ.
When IQ is halved, it will in turn prevent fast and good decisions.
We all know trading requires fast and good decisions. And by not
being able to make fast and good decisions, trading and its results
are affected.
There's a solution to this and that is the feeling of intense gratitude.
Let me explain why this is so.
The feeling of intense gratitude will release hormones in our body
called DHEA. And DHEA has the effect of lowering cortisol levels,
which in turn makes you smarter to make better and faster
decisions. It also improves your mood as well, thereby improving
your performance as a trader, psychologically.
This works not only in trading but in your everyday life as well.
My aim for sharing this here is not only to help you for your trading
psychology but also to help you with your psychology for life so that
you can make better decisions thereby improving the quality of your
life as well.
Part 7: The Opportunity
Everything that I’ve told you probably sounds pretty doable isn’t it?
© 2018 Online Guru Trader
GET HIGH PROBABILITY WINNING TRADES Page 63
Here’s the thing. This very same system I just outlined to you is
what I personally used to trade as a full-time trader putting in part
time hours. I work between 2 to 8 hours Monday through Friday.
And I have never work more than 30 hours in a work week since
2010.
The fact of the matter is trading is an incredibly profitable business
that’s easy to add into your current lifestyle.
The bottom line is if you have some spare cash (to use as trading
capital) and you’re willing to put your money to work then you have
a real good way to generate consistent income from trading.
The financial markets are an ever-green industry and it will be here
forever.
Trillions of dollars change hands in a single day and if all you do is
just grab a very small portion of it then you will be on your way to
creating massive wealth for yourself.
Take charge of your own money and make your money work harder
for you to get better returns for your love ones and for yourself.
If you are waiting for opportunity to come your way, then
you are going to be waiting for the rest of your life.
Start taking action, and take advantage of this incredible opportunity
that we are all facing right now to be a part of a multi-trillion-dollar
daily industry.
The money is there for the taking and numbers don’t lie. It’s a trillion
dollar industry for a reason… this is your time.
Remember to check out the free bonus training webclass where I
walk you through what’s in this book.
© 2018 Online Guru Trader