How to establish economic values for crop wild relatives: methods and

data sources

Presentation prepared for PGR Forum workshop 2 Korsǿr, Denmark, 27 – 29 April 2005

Maria ScholtenBrian Ford-Lloyd

Nigel MaxtedShelagh Kell

Economic valuation of crop wild relatives: methods and data sources

1. Context of valuation: prioritisation of 1025 genera

2. Types of values. Application to PGR

3. Methodologies of valuating biodiversity 4. How to apply these methods?

5. Economic data types and prioritisation

Context = prioritisation

IBPGR ‘Revised priorities among crops and regions’

1. Risk of genetic loss2. Economic and social importance of the materials

in terms of their present usefulness and importance (volume or value of production and trade, numbers of people depending on them)

3. Recognized requirements of plant breeders and research workers

4. Size, scope and quality of existing collections.

Source: IBPGR 1981

16 of 30 Priority genera OPGC (USA) have European

native relativesAquilegia

Aster

Campanula

Chrysanthemum

Dianthus

Euphorbia

GeraniumSalviaVerbenaVeronicaViola

HemerocallisImpatiensIrisLiliumNarcissus

A typology of values

A typology of values: application to PGR activities

Activity Direct use value Indirect use value Non-use value

PGR in wild recreational optional intrinsic

Inventory breeding/recreational optional intrinsic

In situ breeding/recreational optional intrinsic

Ex situ breeding optional -

Evaluation breeding optional/diversity -

Prebreeding breeding diversity -

(source: Gollin and Evenson 2003)

Market prices for UK crop wild relatives?

Taraxacum, Rumex, Anthriscum, Malva

leaves harvested in the wild:

£15 per kg box(source: Observer April 2005)

Wild harvested produce in EU(25):

487 – 3, 903 tonnes/year (source: EUROSTAT)

would represent a total value between 0.7 and 500 million euros?

Methods of economic valuation

A. Market price evaluation: e.g. market contracts

B. Non-market price evaluation to value non-market goods:

Stated preferences: based on questionnaires

Revealed preferences techniques: uses existing market data in “surrogate market”

Non-market valuation: contingency valuation

Country Biodiversity category WTP per household/year

Norway 1990 Brown bear, wolf $15.0USA 1990 Bald eagle $12.4USA 1990 Grizzly bear $18.5USA 1990 Blue whale $ 9.3USA 1990 Bighorn sheep $ 8.6USA 1990 Bottlenose dolphin $ 7.0Germany 1991 Endangered species € 72Sweden1989 300 endangered species €139Portugal 2002 Natural parks and wilderness € 38NL 1994 Wildlife habitat enhancing € 8 – 23UK 1992 Wetland site protection € 6 – 17.5PGR Forum 2005 Weedy crop wild relative € ?(Source: Pearce and Moran 1994 / Nunes et al 2002)

Example of non-market valuation: production function

• Estimating marginal value of pre-breeding materials• Example: 573 soybean accessions in USDA germplasm

collection • Method: Maximum Entropy

• Result: expected yield loss prevented by additional accession: 0.00024%.

• Because of large value of soybean as a crop and the large losses to be expected from the specific pest under study this percentage can be considered high.

(source: Zohrabian 2003)

Non-market valuation: production loss averted

Production loss averted. Has been used in the past to evaluate PGR: their role in reducing future crop losses. Example: corn leaf blight in 1970’s.

Quantitative estimates of the insurance value of PGR may be inferred from crop insurance markets (Swanson, Pearce and Cercigni 1994).

Problematic about this approach: ignores substitution effects and real agricultural losses (Gollin 1998).

Data types to value crops

Optional value = potential of crop for the breeding industry:• Number of ex situ accessions • Number of varieties currently marketed• Number of applications for variety protection

Current value = market value of crop: • Area harvested in hectares• Production in tonnes harvested• Price per unit• Total value (price per unit * total volume)

Common Catalogues of horticultural and agricultural species

• Year of reference: 2003

– 81 agricultural crops– 46 horticultural crops– 14 000 agricultural varieties– 13 000 horticultural varieties– 65 genera in total – 50 genera with European native wild relatives– Highest number of crops per genus: Brassica

Horticultural 2003 comcat

Raphanus Solanum

Vicia

Genera with more than 50 varieties listed in Common Catalogue of horticultural species 2003

Daucus

Asparagus

FoeniculumVicia

Citrullus

Raphanus

Cichorium

Brassica

LactucaAlliumPisum

Apium

Solanum

Beta Petroselinum

Forages ranking by number of varieties in the EU Common Catalogue1 Lolium 9002 Festuca 5003 Poa 1304 Dactylis 1305 Phleum 806 Agrostis 507 Bromus 138 Arrhenatherum 59 Alopecurus 4

10 Trisetum 311 Phalaris 1

Community Plant Variety Office (CPVO):

> 11 000 applications for plant variety rights since 1995

1038 taxa currently covered

In 2002:

68% of applications for ornamental taxa

19% of applications for agricultural taxa

8% for vegetables

6 % for fruit varieties

(source: CPVO April 2005)

CPVO plant variety rights granted since 1995

Prioritising CPVO ornamental genera

– is not difficult!

MARKET VALUE

15 EU countries between 2000 – 2003

Price range over 15 countries

×

Average volume (tonnes) produced between 2000 - 2003

Minimum total value = minimum price × volume

Maximum total value = maximum price × volume

EU 15 MILLION EURO 2000 - MILLION EUROPER GENUS MINIMUM 2003 MAXIMUM

1 Beta 183953 6020392 Triticum 104370 1780433 Vitis 89519 1153294 Pisum 41317 815905 Brassica 29399 911406 Allium 22890 693837 Prunus 16669 453508 Malus 15090 1640309 Solanum 11524 13820

10 Citrus 10913 2816011 Pyrus 6468 2063812 Lactuca 5564 1467213 Fragaria 4822 1268714 Avena 4206 665815 Daucus 4002 1942916 Secale 3746 698817 Cichorium 3179 686318 Asparagus 2175 1589219 Olea 2066 793320 Citrullus 1733 574521 Corylus 1347 158322 Juglans 1236 3257

FAOSTAT: European agricultural crop production 1994 – 2004

area harvestedproduction in

tonnes

1 Triticum 55336886 185454446

2 Beta 4729537 177927594

3 Solanum 9053554 141668674

4 Hordeum 30749176 89483878

5 Secale 8447285 19319049

6 Avena 9222142 18215644

7 Linum 6477644 18065557

8 Brassica 4402046 11619707

9 Olea 4548130 10170412

10 Triticale 1929514 7895145

11 Fagopyrum 1622434 1061060

12 Vicia 551462 655122

13 Sorghum 158229 649931

14 Cannabis 380419 364231

15 Sinapis 214092 118187

16 Saccharum 1203 95078

17 Lupinus 71954 82602

18 Cicer 108284 78914

19 Ipomoea 5189 59264

20 Humulus 43668 55447

FAOSTAT: European agricultural crop production 1994 – 2004

Vegetable genera top 12 - FAO

1 Brassica 687529.73 14352410.64

2 Pisum 2843786.82 8006513.36

3 Allium 554592.54 7991241.73

4 Daucus 275,900.36 6,958,587.55

5 Lactuca 143,619.91 3,323,156.27

6 Cynara 84,184.00 848,428.82

7 Vicia 244273.82 719224.27

8 Solanum 28,145.82 714,128.09

9 Asparagus 58,075.73 239,793.27

10 Ceratonia 103,548.09 164,626.09

11 Chicorium 17,379.18 148,809.36

12 Foeniculum 40,659.09 36,159.64

hectares harvested Mtonnes

1 Vitis 4499462 30248913

2 Citrus 3889797 26931057

3 Prunus 2994905 19708123

4 Malus 1632344 16689602

5 Pyrus 271429 3596361

6 Fragaria 145177 1239513

7 Rubus 62525 296146

8 Juglans 140533 295996

9 Ficus 143265 207944

10 Ribes 29135 177292

11 Corylus 99690 143569

12 Castanea 77370 142359

13 Cydonia 10192 57636

14 Vaccinium 17369 51083

15 Pistacia 8728 9514

Fruit top genera 1994 -2004 - FAOSTAT

Forages’ seed market

Size of forage market in metric tonnesnon-EU EU

Lolium multiflorum 25605 112285Festuca arundinacea 1360 16520Lolium perenne 41009 13470Dactylis glomerata 4122 9313Phleum pratense 9640 3490Festuca pratensis 7115 2040

Lolium × boucheanum 2725 1500

N.B. amenity uses includedSource: J. Gilbert, BSH 2004

Dutch Flower Auction production and price for most important ornamental crops 2003

genus category times 1000

volume price/unit (€ ) total value (€)

Rosa cut flower 681330 0.2 136266000

Lilium cut flower 159999 0.41 65599590

Chrysanthemum cut flower 299067 0.21 62804070

Ficus house plants 35526 1.7 60394200

Tulipa cut flower 185908 0.14 26027120

Chrysanthemum house plants 29130 0.81 23595300

Rosa house plants 23010 1.01 23240100

Buxus garden plants 13269 1.66 22026540

Hedera house plants 24750 0.18 4455000

Viola garden plants 16370 0.26 4256200

Synthesis: prioritising by combined ranking (1)

GENUS RANKING IN RANKING IN COMBINED RANK

COMCAT CPVO PRODUCTION

Triticum 4 1 top 5

Rosa 1 1 top 5

Beta 3 2 top 5

Chrysanthemum 2 2 top 5

Solanum 5 3 top 5

Lilium 3 3 top 5

Vitis 4 5 top 5

Lolium 6 1 top 10

Festuca 10 2 top 10

Synthesis (2): prioritised genera

Top 5 genera

Triticum Beta Solanum Rosa Chrysanthemum Lilium Vitis

Top 10 genera

Lolium, Festuca, Hordeum Tulipa Brassica Malus Olea

Top 15 genera

Citrus Prunus Pisum Allium Daucus Trifolium

Top 20 genera

Avena Citrullus Pyrus Lactuca Vicia Fragaria

potato 172

beer 78

rye 64

wine 40

wheat 823

sugar 348

plant oils 70 apples 25

Per capita average supply of calories – Europe 1992 - 2002

potato 172

beer 78

rye 64

wine 40

wheat 823

sugar 348

plant oils 70 apples 25

TAK

References

FAO 1998 The state of the world’s plant genetic resources for food and agriculture. FAO, Rome.

IBPGR Revised priorities among crops and regions. IBPGR, Rome, 1981

Nunes, P.A.L.D., van den Bergh, J.C.J.M and P. Nijkamp 2002 The ecological economics of biodiversity. Edward Elgar – UK –USA

Pearce, D. and D. Moran 1994 The economic value of biodiversity. Earthscan books Ltd.

Reid, W.V. et al. 1993 Biodiversity indicators for policy-makers. WRI/IUCN/UNEP Smale and Koo 2003

Ten Kate, K. and S. Laird 1999 The commercial uses of biodiversity. Access to genetic resources and benefit sharing. Earthscan Publications Ltd.

Biodiversity indicators to help set priorities?

WRI IUCN WCMC indicators for domesticated species:

• Accessions of crops in ex situ storage• % of accessions regenerated• Number of crops grown• Number of varieties grown• Kinship or parentage of crop

Source: WRI IUCN WCMC 1993 Biodiversity indicators for policy-makers

FAO State of the World’s PGRFA 1998

Some conclusions on methods to assign economic value:• Many attempts to valuate biological diversity as public goods• Various biodiversity functions (ecosystem) are valued rather than plant

genetic resources• As a consequence: little application to valuation of plant genetic

resources

Prioritisation: 30 major world crops listed

Typology of values: some problems with its application to PGR

• Use value of PGR is based on actual and potential flow of materials from a collection into a breeding program

• This cannot be directly measured

• Option value is an important component of a genebank accession but how to measure?

Modelling bioprospecting of pharmaceuticals

(Source: Simpson 1996)

Example of non-market valuation: hedonic pricing

• “Estimating an implicit price for environmental attributes by looking at real markets in which those characteristics are effectively traded” (Pearce and Moran 1994).

• Has been used to analyse productivity of alternative categories of rice germplasm in India (Gollin and Evenson 1998)

• Entailing a statistical regression relating a measure of varietal improvement in farmers’ fields to factors expected

to cause or produce varietal improvement.

Non-market economic valuation

Revealed Preferences techniques: uses existing market data in “surrogate market”:

1. Production Function

2. Hedonic Price

3. Averting behaviour or losses

Dutch Flower Auction minimum prices for most important crops

Aster 0.05

Chrysanthemum 0.05 - 0.07

Lilium 0.05-0.07

Limonium 0.04

Matthiola 0.04

Rosa 0.04

Delphinium 0.03

Dianthus 0.03-0.04

Eremurus 0.03

Euphorbia 0.03-0.05

Gypsophila 0.03 -0.05

Hyacinthus 0.03

Iris 0.03

Tulipa 0.02-0.03