Strategic Complexity How to Compete Through Adaptive and Dynamic Strategy

David Silverstein President & CEO, BMGI

In Order, Which of the Following is Easiest (to Hardest)?

Tick-Tack-Toe?

Checkers?

Chess?

In Order, Which of the Following is Easiest (to Hardest)?

Tick-Tack-Toe?

Checkers?

Chess?

Write down your answer.

Tick Tack Toe – 71%

Checkers – 24%

Chess – 6%

Live Poll Results

What was the question on the prior page?

Which game’s rules are easiest to understand?

Which game is easiest to learn?

Which game is easiest to cheat at?

Which game is easiest to master?

Which game is easiest to win?

Which game is easiest to win against an inferior opponent?

Which game is easiest to win against a challenging opponent?

We are going to play a game, now, with $1,000,000 on the line. Which game would you like to play?

We are going to play in six months with $1,000,000 on the line. Which game would you like to play?

WHAT was the question?????

Now rank the following three games from easiest to hardest. Checkers Tick-Tack-Toe Chess

You are 21 years old. You graduate from university in three months. You must choose a game to master and consistently win…one that you can make a career out of.

Today’s Answer… Why? The easiest game is chess.

Complexity is necessary. Without complexity there is no basis for competition. Without complexity we can’t win on merit. Without complexity, there is no reason for strategy. DO NOT AVOID COMPLEXITY. MASTER IT!

Complexity is GOOD!

Have you ever heard these excuses?

We can make, maybe, a one or two year plan. Anything more than that is futile. We have been doing the same thing for 50 years. We just need to keep doing it a little better every year. We have to learn to react. We cannot plan our way to greatness because there are too many unknowns. Our strategy is to be opportunistic.

Strategy Does Not Matter Anymore Things change too fast!

Assum

ptions

Knowledge

The Assumption-to-Knowledge Ratio

Assumption ---------------- = Risk Knowledge

Increase knowledge over time…

Reduce a

ssum

ptions o

ver

tim

e…

Assum

ptions

Knowledge

The Assumption-to-Knowledge Ratio

Assumption ---------------- = Risk Knowledge

Increase knowledge over time…

Reduce a

ssum

ptions o

ver

tim

e…

Milestones, Decision Points,

Commitment

Assum

ptions

Knowledge

The Assumption-to-Knowledge Ratio

Assumption ---------------- = Risk Knowledge

Increase knowledge over time…

Reduce a

ssum

ptions o

ver

tim

e…

We must never

stop acquiring

new knowledge!

"Strategy requires thought, tactics require observation." Max Euwe, World Chess Champion (1930s), Mathematician

Strategic Planning is NOT a proxy for Strategy

What did Eisenhower Mean?

Strategic Planning Strategic Thinking Planning

Strategy? Strategy? A Plan?

AND AND AND

What is the difference between…

Globalization. Why? The internet. Why? The economy. Why? Technology. Why? What makes developing strategy so difficult in YOUR business?

What makes strategy so hard in 2014?

"All men can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.“ Sun Tzu

Do you have a strategy to conquer your market?