How to Compare Two Engines ? - Airfinance Journal - News ... to compare two... · How to Compare...
Transcript of How to Compare Two Engines ? - Airfinance Journal - News ... to compare two... · How to Compare...
How to
Compare Two
Engines ?
May 1, 2008
Financing, Managing &
Maintaining Engines:
Roundtable Summit for
Financiers
Engine AcquisitionPrice
Engine OperationMaintenance
Life Limited Parts
Reliability
Fuel & Oil
Emissions
Fleet Management
Engine ResaleResidual Value
Cost of Ownership
Aren’t a
ll engine
s the sa
me ??
?
Aren’t a
ll engine
s the sa
me ??
?
Should I re
ally c
are ab
out th
is ???
Should I re
ally c
are ab
out th
is ???
EASY TO
COMP
ARE
EASY TO
COMP
ARE
Price
Maintenance
Engine AcquisitionPrice
Engine OperationMaintenance
Life Limited Parts
Reliability
Fuel & Oil
Emissions
Fleet Management
Engine ResaleResidual Value
Cost of OwnershipMaintenance
Maintenance
Price
Shop Visit Rate Reports
Comparable Fleet (Experience, Size, Age and Operations) should have Comparable SVR
Longer Current and Expected Lives for Engine A
Fewer Shop Visit
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
Sept 2002 Jan 2003 Sept 2003 Jan 2004 Sept 2004
Engine A’s SVR & UER are more than 3 times* lower compared
to Engine B's
Engine A’s SVR & UER are more than 3 times* lower compared
to Engine B's
0.0270.027
0.0720.072
0.0220.022
0.0080.008
Engine B SVR
Engine A UER
Engine A SVR
Engine B UER
0,02
0,04
0,06
SVRRate/1000 EFH
UERRate/1000 EFH
Maintenance
……Time on wing avoids Shop Visits
Operating Cost - Cost Generated by Shop Visits
Operating conditions:
42 A/C3000 hours / yearFlight leg 2.0Derate 15%
Shop visits:
25% shorter lives for engine B, due to worldwide fleet dilution effect (conservative approach)350,000 $ advantage on shop visit average cost for engine A vs engine B(excluding LLP’s)
Maintenance
Assumptions
Operating Cost
50 80
1.2M$ 1.55M$
Base +64M$
Engine A Engine BMaintenance Cost Model Analysis
Number of SV for 42 A/C
within 10 year
Average Cost of a SV
Average Total Cost
Cost Generated by Shop Visits – 10 years
Maintenance cost savings of 1.5 M$ per A/C
Over 10 years of operation
($ constant & no inflation)
Maintenance
Operating Cost
117 167
1.2M$ 1.55M$
Base +118M$
Engine A Engine BMaintenance Cost Model Analysis
Number of SV for 42 A/C
within 15 year
Average Cost of a SV
Average Total Cost
Cost Generated by Shop Visits – 15 years
Maintenance cost savings of 2.8 M$ per A/C
Over 15 years of operation
($ constant & no inflation)
Maintenance
Operating Cost
6 7
Base ~ 7 - 8 M$
Engine A Engine BMaintenance Cost Model Analysis
# Spare Engine Recommendation
Cost for spare engines
Cost Generated by Spare Engine
Spare engine savings of ~ 180 K$ per A/C
($ constant & no inflation)
Maintenance
Cost of Ownership
Engine AcquisitionPrice
Engine OperationMaintenance
Life Limited Parts
Reliability
Fuel & Oil
Emissions
Fleet Management
Engine ResaleResidual Value
LLP
Maintenance
Life Limited Parts
Life Limited Parts Advantage
20
25
30
20
20
20
0 10 20 30
LPT
Core
Fan
x1000 cycles
QTY of LLPsQTY of LLPs Ultimate LivesUltimate LivesLLP Set PriceLLP Set Price
18
25
0 10 20 30Number
1 830 090
2 114 300
0 1 000 000 2 000 000
Engine A Engine B
$
For Budgetary Purpose Only
For Budgetary Purpose Only
Lower LLP Cost
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100
Cost / cyc * : $ 105.7 Cost / cyc * : $ 105.7 ($2007)($2007)
Cost / cyc * : $ 79.7 * Cost / cyc * : $ 79.7 * ($2007)($2007)
Engine A LLP Cost Advantage: $26 / Cycle / Engine
780 K$ advantage per A/C over 10 years (3000 hrs/year & flight leg 2.0)
LLP
Cost of Ownership
Engine AcquisitionPrice
Engine OperationMaintenance
Life Limited Parts
Reliability
Fuel & Oil
Emissions
Fleet Management
Engine ResaleResidual Value
Life Limited Parts
Reliability
Reliability
Reliability Trend
Engine in Flight Shut Down Trend
Engine Dispatch Reliability Trend
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
0,002
0,004
0,006
0,008
0,010
0,0010,001
0,0020,002
0,0030,003
IFSD: Delta of 0.001/1000 EFH @
Engine A advantage
IFSD: Delta of 0.001/1000 EFH @
Engine A advantage
0,0020,002
Engine B (June 2006 / AI March 2007)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
99,85
99,90
99,95
100,00
D&C: Delta of more than 0.03/100
departures @ Engine A advantage
D&C: Delta of more than 0.03/100
departures @ Engine A advantage
99,9899,98
Engine B (June 2006 )
99,9699,96
99,9399,93
Reliability
Cost of IFSD, D&C
IFSD & D&C cost savings of about 140 K$ per A/COver 10 years of operation($ constant & 0% inflation)
(*) based on an annual utilisation of 3000 hours and a flight leg of 2.0
100K$
Base +64M$
0.002 0.003IFSD rate / 1000 EFH
5 7Number of events over 10 years
Average Cost of an IFSD
10 year Average Total Cost for 42 A/C (*)
Engine A Engine B
20K$
Base +64M$
0.02 0.05D&C rate / 100 departures
13 32Number of flight impacted
per year for 42 A/C (*)
Cost of one delay (66% of the D&C)
10 year Average Total Cost for 42 A/C (*)
50K$Cost of one Cancellation (33% of the D&C)
Reliability
Cost of Ownership
Engine AcquisitionPrice
Engine OperationMaintenance
Life Limited Parts
Reliability
Fuel & Oil
Emissions
Fleet Management
Engine ResaleResidual Value
Fuel & Oil
Reliability
Fuel & Oil
Fuel Burn Comparison
Fuel Burn starts at the gate …Fuel Burn starts at the gate …
BIG NEWS !!BIG NEWS !!
Fuel & Oil
Oil Consumption Comparison
Oil Consumption comparison … Easy !!!
… but also reliability of oil system and impact on SV and D&C
Fuel & Oil
Cost of Ownership
Engine AcquisitionPrice
Engine OperationMaintenance
Life Limited Parts
Reliability
Fuel & Oil
Emissions
Fleet Management
Engine ResaleResidual Value
Emissions
Fuel & Oil
Emissions
Gatwick airport NOx charges for A320 Family
35
30
25
20
15
10
90 100 110 120 130 140 150
From the ICAO certification data sheets
Charges per landing ($)Charges per landing ($)
Thrust (kN)Thrust (kN)
Engine A Engine A upgraded Engine B
Emissions
Cost of Ownership
Engine AcquisitionPrice
Engine OperationMaintenance
Life Limited Parts
Reliability
Fuel & Oil
Emissions
Fleet Management
Engine ResaleResidual Value
Fleet Management
Emissions
Fleet Management
CFM56-7B for the B737NG family CFM56-5B/P for the A320 family
Engine Rerating :1 – Change the engine rating plug2 – Engrave the name plate
Excellent Marketability – Extensive CommonalityReduced cost through commonality for Spares/ Training/ Fleet Management/ …
Excellent Marketability – Extensive CommonalityReduced cost through commonality for Spares/ Training/ Fleet Management/ …
Engine commonality for the entire A/C familyFleet Management
No EMO
With EMO
68 Shop Visits68 Shop Visits28 Shop Visits28 Shop Visits 40 Shop Visits40 Shop Visits
65 Shop Visits65 Shop Visits
23 Shop Visits23 Shop Visits 42 Shop Visits42 Shop Visits
5 transfers 5B3 5B65 transfers 5B3 5B6
Shop Visit BenefitFleet Management
Cost of Ownership
Engine AcquisitionPrice
Engine OperationMaintenance
Life Limited Parts
Reliability
Fuel & Oil
Emissions
Fleet Management
Engine ResaleResidual Value
Value
Fleet Management
Residual Value
Aircraft Residual Value depends mostly on engines
Aircraft/Engine value relationship
Airframe
Engine
Percent of Aircraft ValuePercent of Aircraft Value
Aircraft/Engine AgeAircraft/Engine Age
Scrap valuefor the Aircraft v
Scrap valuefor the Aircraft v
Value
On older Aircraft,
engines maintained with OEM parts
& repairs hold the value
Market Share
Marketability & LiquidityMarketability & Liquidity
Engine A powered A/C
Engine B powered A/C
Number and location of Operators in service
N&S America
587
2256
Europe & CIS
341
2260
Asia Pacific
1425
456
Africa & Middle East
106
318
Value
CFM & IAE Engine Depreciation
Information from appraisers:
Engine resale value stay constant until the end of production
CFM engine at half life is about 70 to 80% of new engine’s price
Market demand can make these trend vary
2018
Base Values,from Avitas BlueBook (Constant $), 2007
6.0M$
5.5M$
5.0M$
4.5M$
4.0M$
3.5M$
3.0M$
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Year
CFM higher resale value : +7.5%
CFM56-5B4/P
V2527-A5
Year
6.0M$
5.5M$
5.0M$
4.5M$
4.0M$
3.5M$
3.0M$
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Base Values,from IBA Engine Values Book (Constant $), 2007
CFM56-5B4/P
V2527-A5
CFM higher resale value : +9.1%
Higher resale value for CFM56 engines : for one engine at half life CFM56-5B4/P vs V2527-A5 :
+ $360,000 from Avitas+$470,000 from IBA
Higher resale value for CFM56 engines : for one engine at half life CFM56-5B4/P vs V2527-A5 :
+ $360,000 from Avitas+$470,000 from IBA
Value
CFM56 Residual Value Advantage
Higher market value, from different appraisersHigher market value, from different appraisers
CFM56 engine market value advantage: up to +9%
Base Values, from Avitas BlueBook, 2007
6.0 M$
5.5 M$
5.5 M$
4.5 M$
4.0 M$
3.5 M$
22k 23.5k 27k 30k
CFM56
V2500
Thrust ratingThrust rating
Base Values, from IBA (Engine Value Book), 20076.5 M$
5.5 M$
4.5 M$
3.5 M$
22k 23.5k 27k 33k
CFM56
V2500
Thrust ratingThrust rating
Value
Upgrade Kits improve the asset value
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
5B/3
7B/3
ASCEND IBA
$K$K
Value
IBA and ASCEND each
performed an independent
assessment of the Tech Insertion
Upgrade
Small differences are explained
by the use of slightly different
assumptions
Report represents the opinion of
IBA and ASCEND and is
intended to be advisory only
Potential impact of non OEM materials on residual value
… and up to 65% if the whole engine need to be put backto the OEM standards
… and up to 65% if the whole engine need to be put backto the OEM standards
OEM
Non-OEM ?
Acquisition Maintenance Disposition
Estimated by independentappraisors between10% to 26% on a mid-lifeCFM56-3 engine …
Estimated by independentappraisors between10% to 26% on a mid-lifeCFM56-3 engine …
Engine valuation life cycle
EngineProjectedValue
EngineProjectedValue
Value
CFM genuine parts
OEM support
PMA blades Source 1
CFM genuine parts
PMA blades Source 1
OEM support
PMA blades Source 2
CFM genuine parts
PMA blades Source 1
PMA blades Source 2
OEM support
STCH Spool Source 3
CFM genuine parts
PMA blades Source 1
PMA blades Source 2
STCH Spool Source 3
OEM support
No One has the Data to Support this ConfigurationNo One has the Data to Support this Configuration
When comparing engines, see global !
Can’t see the forest for the trees ?
Don’t hesitate to ask questions …