How To Build Killer Betting Systems Matt Bisogno.
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Transcript of How To Build Killer Betting Systems Matt Bisogno.
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How To Build Killer Betting Systems
Matt Bisogno
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Introduction: Matt Who?!Online since 2006• www.Geegeez.co.uk • www.HorseRacingExperts.co.uk • www.Horse-Racing.ie • www.OnlineBettingExposed.com • www.FootballBettingSystem.com • www.Laying-System.com (sold out currently)• www.MattBisogno.com • Sponsored the Listed geegeez.co.uk Alleged Stakes
last weekend (St Nicholas Abbey's race)• I love betting systems!
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What is a Betting System?
16 definitions of ‘system’ on Dictionary.com!
So a betting system is an ordered assemblage of facts and principles in the field of betting.
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Where do I start?- An existing product or service became TTS- Smartersig or other similar publications- A ‘hunch’ (see my example at the end of this webinar)- Read racing books (Tip: try to find overseas books, as
their ideas are different and often equally relevant)- Form analysis- A website like raceadvisor or geegeez- Watching racing, and listening to smart racing
presenters (i.e. Racing UK, not Channel 4!)- Your own existing figures (speed, pace, handicap
ratings, etc)
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Free or 'nearly free' options
www.RacingPost.com (e.g. trainers)http://adrianmassey.com (free, no data updates from mid-March 2011)www.HorseRaceBase.com (donation)www.pjmracing.co.uk (very cheap tools)www.football-data.co.uk (free)
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A word (or three) on 'back-fitting'
- ALL systems are back fitted (including weather forecasting, share trading, forex brokers, and insurance quote systems!) - It's NOT a bad thing (in or of itself) - This has incorrectly been called 'back fitting‘ by a lot of people - Wikipedia has this explanation of 'back fitting' - pick the bones out of that! ;-)
- What IS bad is when people use totally illogical parameters in their systems (remember our definition?)
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Rules of Thumb for betting systems - Start with a strong premise and a big enough sample size (the data WILL get whittled down) - Be able to justify why each rule has been included in your system (sound logic please!) - Don't be put off if it takes a little while to get some ‘traction’ (if at first you don’t succeed etc)
- Test on recent years (excluding the most recent complete season)
- Don’t be afraid to be contrarian (that’s where the money is!)
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What is a good return from a betting system?
It depends... ! - First, how do we measure return? ROI? Profit? - Based on level of risk, number of bets, effort to
identify selections, and so on - In other words, it depends on YOU - Ask yourself what kind of system best suits your
make up (psychologically, financially, time-wise, etc).
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Theory into Practical…
An example...
The premise: under-rated (over-priced) favourites … we know that overall 30% of favourites win, so
let’s try to find a system which is profitable and has short losing runs due to playing at the top end of the market…
Let’s head on over to Adrian Massey’s site…
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The ‘Forgotten Favourites’ System
- Favourite or Joint Favourite (UK flat racing only) - Sellers, Claimers and Amateur Rider races only - Class 5 and 6 races only
1,038 winners from 2,780 runners (37.3% SR), and a profit of 288 points (110.4% ROI)
[also a profit of 81.9 points at Industry SP]
AND… A LOT OF FUN!
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Questions?
Thanks a lot for ‘tuning in’ to my very first webinar.
I’d be happy to try to answer your questions now…
{I think I’m supposed to sell you something here, but rather embarrassingly I don’t have anything on offer! How about you just head on over to check out
my website instead?}
Matt Bisognowww.geegeez.co.uk