How to build a demographic evidence-base for school planningChallenges, solutions and lessons learned

Lailani Burra

Katie Bayley

Georgia Allan

September 2017

The planning challenge

Higher than NSW

Size and speed of school-age

population growth

By 2026 there will be 705,000 more children in our schools

than there are today

Population growth by age, Australia 2016-2026

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Net overseas migration, Australia, 1972-2017

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000N

et

overs

eas

mig

rati

on

Fertility rates and number of births Australia, 1976-2016

5

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Avera

ge n

um

ber

of

chil

dre

n

Bir

ths

Births Fertility Rate

Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics: Note: 2017 net overseas migration is based on 6 months of dataHigher than NSW

Changing fortunes of the States

Share of net overseas migrationMajor states, 1972-2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Sh

are

of

net

overs

eas

mig

rati

on

Year ending June 30

VIC

NSW

QLD

WA

SA

The rise and fall of the mining states and the dominance of

Melbourne and Sydney

Learning together

18 years working with education providers

Higher than NSW

What questions do school planners

typically ask?

- Is there sufficient future enrolment demand to support capital works?

- Where should I be directing my marketing expenditure to increase enrolments?

- Where are my school’s kids travelling from and does a new bus route in a particular area stack up?

- Should I consider opening a new campus, and if so, where?

- Are there enough pre-school kids around the school to support an ELC? Should I be planning for an extra stream of Yr 5s?

- What other schools are opening up around me and how are their enrolments tracking?

Current supply Potential market Future demandCurrent

demand

• Forecast school age

population

• Apply market share

• Analyse your market

share• Location of student

enrolments

• Number of local children

• Income, religious and

socio-economic profile

• Location of your school

• Location of other schools

Higher than NSW

Market analysis methodology

- How many schools

are in your area?

- Are schools in our

area growing or

shrinking?

- What is the current

demand for our

school?

- How many kids are

there locally?

- Do incomes

support

Independent

schooling?

- What is the

propensity for

students to attend

independent

schools?

- Where are there

opportunities to

grow our current

market share?

- How many

children will there

be in future?

- Where will growth

occur and when?

- What does this

mean for future

enrolments?

Higher than NSW

How many schools are in your area?

Map your school. Map other schools and analyse their enrolments.

Australian Schools List (ACARA)My School websiteCurrent supply

Higher than NSW

Where are my students living?

Map student address data.

Current demand

Higher than NSW

Where is my catchment?

Determine logical catchment area.

Current demand

Higher than NSW

How many children are there in my

catchment area?

Number of 5-11 year olds in the catchment from Census.

profile.id.com.au

Current demand

Higher than NSW

What is their income and socioeconomic

profile?

Review income data for catchment from Census

profile.id.com.au

Current demand

Higher than NSW

What is my current market share?

Number of enrolled students living in catchment / total number of children aged 5-11

91%

9%

Market share

Government Independent & Catholic

Potential market

Higher than NSW

How many children will live in my

catchment in the future?

Access forecasts for 5-11 year olds for catchment area.

forecast.id.com.auFuture demand

Tips and tricks

Turning spreadsheetsinto stories

Data quality is critical

Higher than NSW

Finding data to match my catchment

Data sets are collected for different geographic areas.

Higher than NSW

Finding data for school aged children

School catchments are rarely the same as data catchments

ABS Quick Stats

Higher than NSW

One dataset doesn’t tell the whole story

Try looking at several sets in combination – this is called a cross-tab.

Accurate micro-geography population forecasts

Purpose designed for school planners

• Single year of age• Single year forecasts• Sub-catchment geography

Change in 5-11 year olds, by SAFi area, 2017-2022

Higher than NSW

Telling the whole story

Higher than NSW

Useful links

Demographic resourceswww.id.com.au• Demographic resource centre – community profile and

population forecasts • Blog with demographic content for education providers• Case studies for the education sector• Ebook – “Planning education provision in a changing

Australia”

ACARA school listhttps://www.acara.edu.au/reporting/acara-school-list

MySchoolshttps://www.myschool.edu.au/

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