How to Achieve Universal Modern Energy Access by 2030?Hisham Zerriffi (UBC)Shonali Pachauri (IIASA)

Current Status of Global Modern Energy Access

Source: Global Energy Assessment - Pachauri et al., 2012

>40% of the globe lacks access to clean cooking>20% of the globe lacks access to any electricity

2

What Do We Mean By Access?

Physical access to energy – availability

Economic access to energy – Affordability of a connection and equipment Affordability of the fuel or energy type

Illegal access – electricity thefts and unaccounted for T&D losses

Quality and reliability of access – uninterrupted access and regular and easy supply

Quantity of access – minimum thresholds of use

3

Electricity Central to All Aspects of Well-being & Development

Private Benefits

• Illumination• Communication

& Entertainment• Thermal Comfort• Convenience

Appliances

Income Generation

• Mechanization (farm & industry)

• Home & Microenterprises

• Commercial Activity

Public/ Community Services

• Public Lighting• Health Care

(vaccine refrigeration)

• Education• Food Storage

4

Negative Consequences of Solid Fuels Dependence

• Social costs– ~4 million premature deaths a year from

household air pollution– Between 1 to 5 billion women-hours lost annually

in collection• Impacts on livelihood

– Limited productive hours in the day – Limited work and business possibilities

• Environmental impacts– Local forest, land and soil degradation– CO2 emissions if biomass is unsustainably

harvested– Emissions of non-CO2 GHG and aerosols with

higher GWP – Growing evidence of strong climate impacts of

black carbon (soot)5

Is Universal Access to Modern Energy Achievable by 2030?

6

Historical Electrification Trends

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

20

40

60

80

100

South Africa

India

Brazil

China

Egypt

USA

Year

Perc

enta

ge p

opul

ation

ele

ctri

fied

Source: Global Energy Assessment - Pachauri et al., 20127

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia East Asia & China

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Total Population Increase 1970-1990Incremental Population Electrified 1970-1990Total Population Increase 1990-2008Incremental Population Electrified 1990-2008

Millions of People • The pace of electrification

across time and regions has been very uneven

• China electrified its entire population over a few decades. Thailand and South Africa, connected over 0.4 million new customers annually over a period of 5 years

• In SSA the growth in population, particularly in rural areas, still outpaces the rate of new connections

Trends in Electricity Access for Regions with Least Access

8

Recent Trends in Access to Modern Energy for Cooking

2000 20090

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Sub-Saharan Africa India

China Rest of Developing Asia

Indonesia Latin America & Caribbean

North Africa & Middle East

Po

pu

lati

on

in M

illio

ns

De

pe

nd

en

t o

n B

iom

as

s

• The number of people dependent on biomass alone has declined from 2.8 billion in 2000 to 2.7 billion in 2009, largely due to reduced dependence in China

• However, in addition to these numbers, 30% of people in China continue to depend on coal and over 10% in SSA depend on charcoal, so over 3 billion people still depend on solid fuels today

• In rural areas, dependence on solid fuels remains almost unchanged over the last decade in many developing countries

9

Without New and Dedicated Policies Access Goals by 2030 Unachievable

Rural Urban Rural Urban2005 2030 No new policies

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

1800.0

98%88%

92%85%

82%

31%

65%

10%

98%

53%

82%

13%

Sub-Saharan Africa Pacific Asia South Asia

Po

pu

lati

on

in B

illio

ns

Re

lyin

g o

n S

olid

Fu

els

2005 2030 No new policies

2030Univ. Acc.

0.0

300.0

600.0

900.0

1,200.0

1,500.0

1,800.0

2,100.0

9%31%

95%

43%77%

95%

47%

77%

95%

Sub-Saharan Africa Pacific Asia South Asia

Rura

l ele

ctri

fied

popu

latio

n in

Bill

ions

10

Base 2005 No new policies 2030

50% Fuel Subsidy 2030

Microfinance @15% only 2030

Microfinance @15% + 50% Fuel Subsidy

2030

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Popu

lati

on D

epen

dent

on

Solid

Fue

ls in

Bill

ions

New Combinations of Policies for Modern Cooking Access

Fuel subsidies coupled with grants or microfinance schemes that make cheap credit available for the purchase of new stoves are most effective

Peop

le g

aini

ng a

cces

s to

mod

ern

ener

gy c

arrie

rs

An additional 200 million without access by 2030

Subsidies alone reduce dependence by one-third

Microfinance alone not very effective

Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1205-1305.11

Energy Demand Implications of Access Policies

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

4500.0

5000.0Biomass Coal Kerosene LPG Electricity

Ho

use

ho

ld F

inal

En

erg

y in

EJ

• Total household final energy demand is lower with access policies, though electricity and modern cooking fuel demand will rise

Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1205-1305.12

Changes in GHG Emissions Due to Access Policies by Region

South Asia Pacific Asia Sub-Saharan Africa0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.52005 2030 No New Policies 2030 Universal Access

GH

G E

mis

sion

s (G

t CO

2-eq

)

Net Impacts on emissions are negligible

Source: Riahi et al., ‘Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development’, GEA, 2012, p. 1205-1305.13

What it will take to Achieve Universal Access by 2030?

The GEA estimates, total investments of $ 36 - 41 billion per year till 2030, ~ 5% of global annual energy sector investments, <8% of current fossil subsidies globally

Detailed local assessments of existing demands, affordability and options for expanding access

Focused and sustained government commitment and targeted and responsive policies:

Targeted price support (subsidies) on modern fuels Grants or easier microcredit access for upfront costs

Flexible and adequate institutional arrangements with local involvement and enhanced capacity building

New business models and mechanisms to incentivize private sector involvement and cost recovery14