How The World and the EU Sees the U.S., Donald Trump and Trade · During Trump’s Second Year...
Transcript of How The World and the EU Sees the U.S., Donald Trump and Trade · During Trump’s Second Year...
How The World and the EU Sees the U.S., Donald Trump and Trade
Bruce StokesDirector, Global Economic Attitudes Brussels 10/4/18
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Pew Research Center
• Established 1996
• Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, foundations
• Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington
• Since 2002, we have surveyed in 108 countries
• www.pewresearch.org
• @pewresearch
About the 2018 Survey
3
27,612 interviews conducted from May 14 to August 12, 2018 in 31 languages
Face-to-face countries
Telephone countries In each country,
samples are representative of the adult (18+)
population
• Canada • Sweden
• France • United Kingdom
• Germany • Japan
• Netherlands • South Korea
• Spain • Australia
• Argentina • Russia
• Brazil • Indonesia
• Mexico • Philippines
• Greece • Israel
• Hungary • Tunisia
• Italy • Kenya
• Poland • Nigeria
• South Africa
• Additional data from a telephone survey of 1,500 U.S. adults conducted from May 14- June 15, 2018
U.S. FAVORABILITY
4
October 5, 2018 5
U.S. Favorability in Europe Favorable views of U.S.
October 5, 2018 6
Views of the U.S. Are Quite Sour Among Some of America’s Closest European Allies
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
Unfavorable Favorable
Views of the U.S.
18%
30
39
43
50
54
60
59
62
66
52
70%
63
52
50
44
42
38
36
34
30
43
Poland
Hungary
Italy
UK
Sweden
Spain
France
Greece
Netherlands
Germany
MEDIAN
End of Obamapresidency* 2017 2018
17-18Change
Obama-18Change
% % %
Netherlands 65 37 34 -3 -31
Germany 57 35 30 -5 -27
Sweden 69 45 44 -1 -25
France 63 46 38 -8 -25
Italy 72 61 52 -9 -20
Spain 59 31 42 +11 -17
UK 61 50 50 0 -11
Poland 74 73 70 -3 -4
Greece 38 43 36 -7 -2
Hungary 62 63 63 0 -1
October 5, 2018 7
But There Has Been Little Overall Change in the U.S. Image During Trump’s Second Year
*Obama presidency figures are based on the most recently available data for each country between 2014 and 2016.Note: Significant changes in bold.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
October 5, 2018 8
In Many Countries, the Young Are More Positive Than Older Generations on U.S.
Note: Only statistically significant differences shown.
Favorable views of the U.S.
October 5, 2018 9
Those on the Political Right More Favorable Toward the U.S.
Note: Only statistically significant differences shown.
Favorable view of U.S.
Unfavorable view of party
Favorable view of party Diff
% %France Republicains 31 53 +22
National Front 36 57 +21En Marche 34 45 +11Socialist Party 39 37 -2Insoumise 41 35 -6
UK Conservative Party 41 63 +22UKIP 45 61 +16
Liberal Democrats 47 53 +6Labour Party 51 47 -4
Germany AfD 26 43 +17CDU 27 33 +6SPD 28 31 +3Green 30 29 -1Die Linke 31 28 -3
October 5, 2018 10
Views of the U.S. Also Vary by Support for European PartiesFavorable view of U.S., among those with a/an …
Note: Statistically significant differences shown in bold.
Many Europeans View Relations With the U.S. as Unchanged Since 2017, Although Sentiment is Much Worse in Germany
October 5, 2018 11
Relations between our country and the U.S. have __ over the past year
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
80%
43
42
39
27
23
21
21
18
10
25
15%
50
49
48
59
57
43
50
66
69
50
4%
5
8
12
14
12
28
23
14
19
13
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
UK
France
Italy
Poland
Hungary
Spain
Greece
MEDIAN
Gotten worse
Stayed about the same
Gotten better
CONFIDENCE IN PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP
12
October 5, 2018 13
Confidence in Trump Remains Low in Key EU Countries
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
Confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing regarding world affairs
10 Germany20
2630
51
0
100
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
%
28 UK
7 Spain
Bush Obama Trump2018
9 France
October 5, 2018 14
Overall, Eight-in-Ten Europeans Lack Confidence in Trump
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
How much confidence do you have in U.S. President Donald Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs?
93%
90
90
83
82
81
70
70
60
56
82
7%
9
10
17
17
19
27
28
31
35
18
Spain
France
Germany
Greece
Sweden
Netherlands
Italy
UK
Hungary
Poland
MEDIAN
ConfidenceNo confidence
October 5, 2018 15
Supporters of Right-Wing Populist Parties Are More Likely to Have Confidence in Trump
Confidence in U.S. President Donald Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs among those with a/an…
Note: Only statistically significant differences shown. Party favorability question fielded as “Northern League” in Italy (now called League) and “National Front” in France (now called National Rally).
60
4538 42
3730 31
64 63 62
52 53 51 5057
3530
51
33 3025
1914
93 90 88 87 88
71 73
86
11 100
100
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Favorable view of U.S.
Confidence in U.S. president
%
Bush Obama Trump2018
October 5, 2018 16
And Views of the U.S. President Affect Favorability of the U.S. Among Germans…
U.S. SOFT POWER AND AMERICA’S ROLE IN THE WORLD
17
65
49
7079
67 Poland
0
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
%
43 UK
69
October 5, 2018 18
A Shrinking Share of the Public in the EU Believes the U.S. Respects Its Own Citizen’s Personal Freedoms
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
U.S. government respects the personal freedoms of its people
40 France35 Germany31 Spain
October 5, 2018 19
Fewer Now Say U.S. Takes Into Account Their Interests In making international policy decisions, the U.S. takes into account the interests of countries like ours a great
deal/fair amount
October 5, 2018 20
Roughly Half of Europeans Say the U.S. is Less Involved in Tackling Global Issues
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
About the same
Compared with a few years ago, the U.S. is doing __ to help address major global problems
75%
75
62
55
53
49
36
35
25
22
14%
18
25
31
39
40
33
42
57
45
6%
5
12
11
6
8
14
13
8
22
Germany
Sweden
Netherlands
UK
France
Spain
Italy
Hungary
Greece
Poland
Less More
October 5, 2018 21
In Europe, China Seen as Playing a Larger Global Role, Not the U.S.
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
U.S. China Russia
37%
31
31
29
28
27
24
21
20
16
Poland
Italy
Greece
Hungary
Spain
UK
Netherlands
France
Sweden
Germany
81
79
78
76
73
70
70
70
60
Sweden
Greece
Netherlands
France
Spain
Germany
Italy
Hungary
UK
Poland
65%
51
48
48
46
46
44
43
42
40
Greece
France
UK
Netherlands
Hungary
Sweden
Poland
Germany
Italy
Spain
Those saying __ plays a more important role in the world today compared to 10 years ago
84%
October 5, 2018 22
Europeans Say Germany, Not the UK or France, Plays a Larger World Role
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
Germany France UK
56
55
51
47
46
42
42
38
37
Greece
Spain
Italy
Germany
Netherlands
Poland
France
Hungary
Sweden
UK
24%
23
22
21
21
20
16
15
10
9
Greece
UK
Spain
Italy
Poland
Hungary
Sweden
Netherlands
Germany
France
Those saying __ plays a more important role in the world today compared to 10 years ago
81%
30
27
26
25
25
22
20
20
17
Germany
Greece
Italy
France
Sweden
Spain
Netherlands
UK
Poland
Hungary
33%
October 5, 2018 23
Nevertheless, In Europe, Canada Large Majorities Prefer U.S. Leadership
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
It would be better for the world to have __ as the leading power
71%
76
71
68
67
65
63
58
45
45
37
64
13
13%
10
13
27
17
14
12
24
29
47
46
21
53
15%
14
16
6
17
21
26
19
26
9
17
17
35
Canada
Sweden
Netherlands
Poland
UK
France
Spain
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
MEDIAN
Russia
U.S. Both/Neither/DK/Refused China
IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID
24
October 5, 2018 25
U.S., EU, Japanese Economic Sentiment Is Now More Positive Than at Any Time Since 2002
The current economic situation in our country is good
Note: EU median of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK. Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
46
50
65 U.S.
3636
46 EU
6
28
44 Japan
0
100
2002 2008 2013
%
2018
October 5, 2018 26
People Who Think Their Economy is Doing Well Are More Likely to Believe Trade Creates Jobs, Raises Wages
Trade with other countries …
Note: Percentages are global medians based on 24 countries. Greece, Tunisia and Brazil not included in medians due to insufficient sample size.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
53%
4339%
29
Creates jobs Increases wages
Among those who say the economy is good
Among those who say the economy is bad
AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON TRADE
June 22, 2017 27
October 5, 2018 28
Americans Are Less Convinced Than Others Trade is Good
Growing trade and business ties with other countries is a good thing for our country
Note: Nine-country median based on Argentina, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Korea and the UK.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
78
5953
65 66 6874
8778 81 81 84
7883
2002 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Nine-country median
U.S.
October 5, 2018 29
Americans Have Consistently Felt Better About Trade Than About Trade Agreements
__ is/are good for the U.S.
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey. “Free trade agreement” data from May 2018 Pew Research Center survey.
78
5953
65 66 6874
49
34
44
47 47
44 4440
35
5243
35
48
59 585150
4552 56
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Free trade agreements
Trade
2018
October 5, 2018 30
Americans Are Twice as Likely to Believe Trade is Good for the U.S. as to Think It Creates Jobs or Raises Wages
Trade with other countries …
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
Does not make a difference
25 24Does not make a difference
32 30Does not make a difference
28 25
74
21
2014 2018
68%
28%
20
36
50
34
2014 2018
17
31
45
31
2014 2018
35 37
32 32
2014 2018
Decreases pricesIncreases prices
Increases wagesDecreaseswages
Creates jobs
Destroys jobs
Is good
Is bad
2014 2018 Change
% %
TOTAL 50 34 -16
Men 46 30 -16
Women 55 39 -16
18-29 43 30 -13
30-49 50 36 -14
50+ 55 34 -21
Hispanic 37 21 -16
Black 59 42 -17
White 53 35 -18
Rep/Lean Rep 51 35 -16
Dem/Lean Dem 48 33 -15
October 5, 2018 31
In 2018 Fewer Americans Believe Trade Destroys JobsTrade with other countries leads to job losses in the U.S.
Note: Statistically significant changes in bold.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
2014 2018 Change% %
TOTAL 45 31 -14Men 43 30 -13Women 48 33 -1518-29 43 25 -1830-49 44 35 -950+ 48 32 -16Hispanic 25 21 -4Black 44 39 -5White 50 32 -18Rep/Lean Rep 42 31 -11Dem/Lean Dem 46 31 -15
October 5, 2018 32
Men, Women, Young, Old, GOP and Dems Are Less Likely Than in the Past to Believe Trade Lowers Wages
Trade with other countries leads to a decrease in wages in the U.S.
Note: Statistically significant changes in bold.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
October 5, 2018 33
The Public’s View of the EU’s Trade Fairness is Unchanged
% of adults who think __ has a fair trade policy with the U.S.
Source: Gallup poll conducted June 1993 and June 18-23, 2018.
1993 2018 1993-2018change
% %
EU 52 56 +4
Japan 24 55 +31
Mexico 45 44 -1
Canada 77 65 -12
China - 30 -
October 5, 2018 34
But Partisan Perceptions of Trade Fairness Have Changed Dramatically Over Time
% of adults who think __ has a fair trade policy with the U.S.
.
1993 20181993-2018
change% %
CanadaRepublicans 81 49 -32Democrats 76 82 +6EURepublicans 54 42 -12Democrats 51 70 +19MexicoRepublicans 47 29 -18Democrats 42 59 +17JapanRepublicans 21 46 +25Democrats 27 65 +38ChinaRepublicans 21 -Democrats - 38 -
49%
55
47
47
48
23
56
71
25%
22
28
30
17
45
16
10
Total
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
HelpHurt
October 5, 2018 35
By Two-to-One Republicans Say Tariffs Help the Economy,By Seven-to-One Democrats Say Duties Hurt the Economy
Will raising tariffs help or hurt the U.S. economy?
Source: NBC survey conducted July 15-18, 2018.
EUROPEANS’ VIEWS ON TRADE
June 22, 2017 36
October 5, 2018 37
Europeans Say Trade is Good, but They Doubt it Boosts Wages or Decreases Prices
Trade with other countries …
Note: European median based on countries surveyed in both 2014 and 2018: France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Spain, UK.Source: 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
Does not make a difference
23 24Does not make a difference
33 32Does not make a difference
35 26
Decreases pricesIncreases prices
Increases wagesDecreaseswages
Creates jobs
Destroys jobs
Is good
Is bad
26 27
35 40
2014 2018
79%85
14%10
2014 2018
28 27
33 32
2014 2018
44 40
2834
2014 2018
October 5, 2018 38
Italians Are the Most Wary of Trade Among Europeans
Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
Trade is good
Trade creates jobs
Trade increases wages
Tradelowers prices
% % % %Netherlands 93 61 35 32
Spain 93 58 33 24
Sweden 93 56 36 53
Germany 89 38 27 32
UK 89 49 34 27
Hungary 85 49 38 28
Poland 85 61 52 21
France 83 32 13 35
Greece 82 41 20 28
Italy 64 16 12 25
October 5, 2018 39
Poles, French Now More Likely than in 2014 to Believe that Trade Creates Jobs Trade with other countries leads to job creation
Note: Only statistically significant changes shown.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.
2014 2018 Change% %
U.S. 20 36 +16Poland 51 61 +10France 24 32 +8India 49 56 +7Japan 15 21 +6Mexico 43 35 -8Kenya 75 66 -9Indonesia 63 52 -11Brazil 56 40 -16Tunisia 87 67 -20Argentina 45 19 -26
October 5, 2018 40
All Pew Research Center reports are available online at www.pewresearch.orgBruce StokesDirector, Global Economic Attitudes@bruceestokes