HOW SOUND IS THE SCIENCE? Doug S Butterworth Documents/Reports... · Department of Mathematics and...
Transcript of HOW SOUND IS THE SCIENCE? Doug S Butterworth Documents/Reports... · Department of Mathematics and...
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Doug S ButterworthDoug S Butterworth
“THE “THE END END OF THE LINE” :OF THE LINE” :
HOW SOUND IS THE SCIENCE?HOW SOUND IS THE SCIENCE?
Doug S ButterworthDoug S Butterworth
MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group)MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group)
Department of Mathematics and Applied MathematicsDepartment of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics
University of Cape Town, University of Cape Town, RondeboschRondebosch 7701, South Africa7701, South Africa
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OUTLINEOUTLINE
I.I. TerminologyTerminology
II.II. BluefinBluefin TunaTuna
III.III. 90% of Large Predatory Fish Gone? 90% of Large Predatory Fish Gone?
IV.IV. Collapse of Fisheries by 2048?Collapse of Fisheries by 2048?
V.V. Current World and South African SituationCurrent World and South African Situation
VI.VI. The “MPA Solution” The “MPA Solution”
VII.VII. Science, Advocacy and EthicsScience, Advocacy and Ethics
VIII.VIII. In SummaryIn Summary
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I. TERMINOLOGY SUSTAINABLE YIELD SUSTAINABLE YIELD vsvs ABUNDANCEABUNDANCE
SY MSY
0 30-40% 100%
Fisheries management target BMSY
B
BMSY
PRISTINE
0
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TERMINOLOGY FISHERIES:FISHERIES:
0 20 50 100
OVER EXPLOITED FULLY EXPLOITED UNDER EXPLOITED
BMSY
B
IUCN IUCN REDRED LIST:LIST:
CONTRADICTION?
IUCN IUCN REDRED LIST:LIST:
IUCN fishing intended as flag waver based on crude analysis NOT definitive
assessment of status
NO
0 20 50 70
CRITICALLY
ENDANGERED
ENDANGERED VULNERABLE
B
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II. BLUEFIN TUNA
�� North Pacific North Pacific BluefinBluefin TunaTuna
�� Southern Southern BluefinBluefin TunaTuna
�� North Atlantic North Atlantic BluefinBluefin TunaTuna
Two populations: West ; East + MediterraneanTwo populations: West ; East + Mediterranean
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NORTH ATLANTIC BLUEFIN
TUNA
Regional Fisheries Management Organisation: Regional Fisheries Management Organisation:
ICCATICCAT
IInternational nternational CCommission for the ommission for the CConservation of onservation of AAtlantic tlantic
TTunasunas
IInternational nternational CCommission for ommission for CCatching atching AAll the ll the TTunasunas
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NORTH ATLANTIC BLUEFIN
CATCH DISTRIBUTION
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ICCAT AND EASTERN BLUEFINMID 1990’s to MID 2000’s
�� Development of farmingDevelopment of farming
�� Complete loss of control in the MediterraneanComplete loss of control in the Mediterranean�� Complete loss of control in the MediterraneanComplete loss of control in the Mediterranean
�� Increasing uncertainty about size of catchIncreasing uncertainty about size of catch
�� Continued cynical attitude to science from EUContinued cynical attitude to science from EU
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EAST ATLANTIC &
MEDITERRANEAN BLUEFIN
CATCHES
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EAST ATLANTIC BLUEFIN
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
2009 ICCAT Meeting:2009 ICCAT Meeting:
TAC reduced to 13 500 tonsTAC reduced to 13 500 tons
100% observer coverage of farms100% observer coverage of farms
Effort (season length) restrictionsEffort (season length) restrictions
2010 CITES:2010 CITES:
Proposal to list Atlantic Proposal to list Atlantic bluefinbluefin
Fails: “Leave it to ICCAT”Fails: “Leave it to ICCAT”
CAN ICCAT DELIVER?CAN ICCAT DELIVER?
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2010 ICCAT ASSESSMENT EAST ATLANTIC BLUEFIN CATCH RATES (CPUE)
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2010 ICCAT ASSESSMENT EAST ATLANTIC BLUEFIN SPAWNER BIOMASS
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2010 ICCAT ASSESSMENT EAST ATLANTIC & MEDITERRANEAN BLUEFIN CATCH
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2010 ICCAT ASSESSMENT
�� Marked recent catch reductionMarked recent catch reduction
Believable?Believable?
A new EU?A new EU?
�� Increased biomass estimates and improved trendsIncreased biomass estimates and improved trends
�� Maintenance of 13 500 ton TAC should see Maintenance of 13 500 ton TAC should see
rebuilding to Brebuilding to BMSYMSY by 2022 (MSY = 50 000 tons)by 2022 (MSY = 50 000 tons)
�� GreenGreen listing?listing?
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III. 90% OF LARGE PREDATORY
FISH GONE?
�� Myers and Worm: Myers and Worm: Nature 423 (2003) 280Nature 423 (2003) 280--283283
�� Global ocean has lost more than 90% of large Global ocean has lost more than 90% of large
predatory fishespredatory fishespredatory fishespredatory fishes
�� Primarily based on Japanese tuna Primarily based on Japanese tuna longlinelongline datadata
�� Five substantial rebuttal papers Five substantial rebuttal papers
Hampton, Maunder, Hampton, Maunder, PolacheckPolacheck, , SibertSibert, Walters, Walters
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90% OF LARGE FISH GONE? PACIFIC YELLOWFIN & BIGEYE TUNA CPUE & CATCHES
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90% OF LARGE FISH GONE?
�� Analysis no longer has any credence in the Analysis no longer has any credence in the
fisheries science communityfisheries science community
�� The End of the Line The End of the Line ((JeffJeff Hutchings, Daniel Hutchings, Daniel PaulyPauly):):�� The End of the Line The End of the Line ((JeffJeff Hutchings, Daniel Hutchings, Daniel PaulyPauly):):
“Whether it’s 95% or 70% is rather irrelevant; these are still “Whether it’s 95% or 70% is rather irrelevant; these are still
dramatic declines”dramatic declines”
�� BUTBUT: 70% decline is close to B: 70% decline is close to BMSYMSY target ??!!target ??!!
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ISSF – TUNA STATUS INTERNATIONAL SEAFOOD SUSTAINABILITY FOUNDATION
STATUS OF WORLD TUNA RESOURCES
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Jeff Hutchings Jeff Hutchings et alet al.: .: Can. J. Fish. Can. J. Fish. AquatAquat. Sci. 67 (2010) 1205. Sci. 67 (2010) 1205--12101210
WORLDWIDE: WORLDWIDE: PelagicPelagic DemersalDemersal
TRENDS RELATIVE TO BMSY
HIGH SEASHIGH SEAS
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IV. COLLAPSE OF FISHERIES BY
2048?
�� Worm Worm et alet al.: .: Science 314 (2006) 787Science 314 (2006) 787--790790
�� Project all fisheries collapsed by 2048Project all fisheries collapsed by 2048
“Collapse” “Collapse” –– catch below 10% of maximumcatch below 10% of maximum“Collapse” “Collapse” –– catch below 10% of maximumcatch below 10% of maximum
�� Based on catch, not abundance dataBased on catch, not abundance data
�� Eleven substantial rebuttal papers Eleven substantial rebuttal papers
Branch, Briggs, de Branch, Briggs, de MutsertMutsert, , HilbornHilborn (x3), (x3), HolkerHolker, ,
JaenikeJaenike, , LonghurstLonghurst, , MurawskiMurawski, , WilbergWilberg
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TREVOR BRANCH: TRENDS IN
“COLLAPSED” FISHERIES
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2048 PREDICTION
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COLLAPSE OF FISHERIES BY
2048? �� WWF (Argus, 22 October 2010) re “The End of the WWF (Argus, 22 October 2010) re “The End of the
Line”: Line”:
“Never before have our marine resources been as “Never before have our marine resources been as
degraded and overfished as they are today”degraded and overfished as they are today”
�� Worm, Worm, HilbornHilborn et alet al.: .: Science 325 (2009) 578Science 325 (2009) 578--585585
Average exploitation rate recently declined in 5 of 10 ecosystemsAverage exploitation rate recently declined in 5 of 10 ecosystems
For 7 of these systems, rate is lower than required to achieve BFor 7 of these systems, rate is lower than required to achieve BMSYMSYIceland, US Northeast, Newfoundland, S Australia, East Bering Sea, California, New ZealandIceland, US Northeast, Newfoundland, S Australia, East Bering Sea, California, New Zealand
�� The 2048 prediction has long been The 2048 prediction has long been without any without any
credencecredence in the fisheries science communityin the fisheries science community
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V. CURRENT WORLD AND
SOUTH AFRICAN SITUATION
FAO 2010 CLASSIFICATION OF FISH STOCKSFAO 2010 CLASSIFICATION OF FISH STOCKS
UnderexploitedUnderexploited 2%2%
Moderately exploitedModerately exploited 18%18% 72%72%
Fully exploitedFully exploited 52%52%
OverexploitedOverexploited 19%19%
Recovering from depletionRecovering from depletion 1% 28%1% 28%
DepletedDepleted 8%8%
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CURRENT WORLD SITUATION
Worm, Worm, HilbornHilborn et alet al. (2009) database (. (2009) database (255 stocks255 stocks))
UnderexploitedUnderexploited 24%24%
Fully exploitedFully exploited 50%50%74%74%
Fully exploitedFully exploited 50%50%
OverexploitedOverexploited 14%14%
CollapsedCollapsed 12%12%26%26%
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CURRENT SOUTH AFRICAN
SITUATION
Worm, Worm, HilbornHilborn et alet al. (2009) database: . (2009) database:
255 stocks255 stocks –– 8 from South Africa8 from South Africa
UnderexploitedUnderexploited 22
Fully exploitedFully exploited 66Fully exploitedFully exploited 66
Overexploited or Collapsed Overexploited or Collapsed 00
Under:Under: shallowshallow--water hake, water hake, toothfishtoothfish
Fully:Fully: anchovy, horse mackerel, deepwater hake, anchovy, horse mackerel, deepwater hake, kingklipkingklip, , sardine, south coast rock lobstersardine, south coast rock lobster
Not considered: Not considered: abalone, sole, squid, west coast rock abalone, sole, squid, west coast rock lobster, line fishlobster, line fish
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VI. THE “MPA SOLUTION”
The End of the Line:The End of the Line:
Abundance increases in Marine Protected AreasAbundance increases in Marine Protected Areas
BUTBUT
�� Does this lead to greater productivity and hence Does this lead to greater productivity and hence �� Does this lead to greater productivity and hence Does this lead to greater productivity and hence
catches?catches?
Yes, insofar as nearYes, insofar as near--sessile species “spill over” outside the sessile species “spill over” outside the
MPAMPA
�� Will MPAs prevent overWill MPAs prevent over--exploitation of mobile exploitation of mobile
species?species?
Hardly Hardly –– fish become catchable once they move outsidefish become catchable once they move outside
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THE “MPA SOLUTION”
�� INSHORE AREASINSHORE AREAS
PracticalPractical--enforcement approach to indirectly keep catches enforcement approach to indirectly keep catches
sustainablesustainable
�� OFFSHORE AREASOFFSHORE AREAS
Generally little to offer mobile species from a sustainability Generally little to offer mobile species from a sustainability
standpoint standpoint
Confound interpretation of data used for assessmentConfound interpretation of data used for assessment
SpatioSpatio--temporal closures more effective for effort control if temporal closures more effective for effort control if
neededneeded
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VII. SCIENCE, ADVOCACY AND
ETHICS
Special additional reasons for fisheries scientists’ Special additional reasons for fisheries scientists’
concerns (concerns (raised hacklesraised hackles) about the 90% decline ) about the 90% decline
((NatureNature) and 2048 projection () and 2048 projection (ScienceScience) papers) papers
Re 90% paper:Re 90% paper:
“Widely rumoured” that a senior reviewer had rejected it“Widely rumoured” that a senior reviewer had rejected it
Seeming reluctance of Seeming reluctance of NatureNature to publish rebuttalsto publish rebuttals
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THE 90% PAPER
Tom Tom PolacheckPolacheck ((Marine Policy Marine Policy 30 (2006) 47030 (2006) 470--482482):):�� Failure to address concerns of tuna scientistsFailure to address concerns of tuna scientists
�� Claiming falsely that cited papers demonstrated a consistency between Claiming falsely that cited papers demonstrated a consistency between
apparently inconsistent data sets when they didn’tapparently inconsistent data sets when they didn’t
�� Claiming discovery of already well known phenomenaClaiming discovery of already well known phenomena
�� Implying those working in the field had tunnel vision/emotional attachment to Implying those working in the field had tunnel vision/emotional attachment to
their work to undercut their potential criticismtheir work to undercut their potential criticism
�� Making emotive undocumented universal claims in publicity statementsMaking emotive undocumented universal claims in publicity statements�� Making emotive undocumented universal claims in publicity statementsMaking emotive undocumented universal claims in publicity statements
Mark Maunder Mark Maunder et alet al. letter to . letter to Nature Nature ::Publishing and promoting highly questionable science without allowing timely Publishing and promoting highly questionable science without allowing timely
critical review by qualified people ... does science a disservicecritical review by qualified people ... does science a disservice
Nature Nature : Acknowledged wide: Acknowledged wide--spread criticism by experts in the field, but declined spread criticism by experts in the field, but declined to publish the letterto publish the letter
PolacheckPolacheck : : NatureNature appeared to divorce itself from responsibility for accuracy and appeared to divorce itself from responsibility for accuracy and general validity of conclusions of an article once published general validity of conclusions of an article once published
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THE 2048 PAPERSeattle Times report Seattle Times report (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003340489_seafood03m.html)
The author sent a note to colleagues (and the Seattle Times by mistake) saying The author sent a note to colleagues (and the Seattle Times by mistake) saying
“... that the projection could act as a ‘news hook’ to get people’s attention ...”“... that the projection could act as a ‘news hook’ to get people’s attention ...”
Mike Beck Mike Beck (in The Nature Conservancy’s (in The Nature Conservancy’s Science Chronicles Science Chronicles Jan 2007)Jan 2007)“F “ in high school statistics“F “ in high school statistics
Represents targeted Represents targeted advocacyadvocacy by some journals and authors. Polarisation, by some journals and authors. Polarisation,
rather than needed corather than needed co--operation with fishing interests, fuelled by oneoperation with fishing interests, fuelled by one--sided sided
papers in papers in ScienceScience and and NatureNature
Mike Mike SissenwineSissenwine (in (in Environmental Conservation Environmental Conservation 34 (2007) 9034 (2007) 90--91) 91) Aggressive public promotion of science is fine and legitimate provided rigour Aggressive public promotion of science is fine and legitimate provided rigour
and accuracy are not sacrificed.and accuracy are not sacrificed.
The people whom fisheries scientists seek to influence deserve to know The people whom fisheries scientists seek to influence deserve to know
whether they are reading or hearing objective science or whether they are reading or hearing objective science or advocacyadvocacy..
Proposed that fisheries scientists be governed by codes of conduct, standard Proposed that fisheries scientists be governed by codes of conduct, standard
practices, certification and licensing, well beyond journal peer review, similar practices, certification and licensing, well beyond journal peer review, similar
to internal governance within other professions interacting with layto internal governance within other professions interacting with lay--people people
such as doctors, engineers and lawyers. such as doctors, engineers and lawyers.
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VIII. IN SUMMARY
The End of the Line:The End of the Line:
Sound science?Sound science?
In part, but certainly not throughoutIn part, but certainly not throughout
Up to date?Up to date?Up to date?Up to date?
NoNo
Balanced?Balanced?
Certainly notCertainly not
But interpret it for what it intends to be But interpret it for what it intends to be –– advocacyadvocacy
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IN SUMMARY
The End of the Line The End of the Line Local sponsors: WWF, Investec, Pick n PayLocal sponsors: WWF, Investec, Pick n Pay
Laudable objective to promote sustainabilityLaudable objective to promote sustainability
BUT Questionable PublicityBUT Questionable Publicity
Investec:Investec: “A world without fish .... around 2048”“A world without fish .... around 2048”
“90% of all large fish fished out” (citing WWF)“90% of all large fish fished out” (citing WWF)“90% of all large fish fished out” (citing WWF)“90% of all large fish fished out” (citing WWF)
Promoting false information is counterPromoting false information is counter--productive towards productive towards
influencing the fishing industryinfluencing the fishing industry
Why aren’t these companies who want to do “the right thing” Why aren’t these companies who want to do “the right thing”
better informed?better informed?
Lack of due diligence on their part? Lack of due diligence on their part?
OROR
A failure of mainstream science to communicate effectively?A failure of mainstream science to communicate effectively?
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IN SUMMARY
The End of the Line The End of the Line –– Three StepsThree Steps
�� Ask before you buy Ask before you buy –– eat only sustainable eat only sustainable
seafoodseafood
Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible �� Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible
fishingfishing
�� Tell politicians Tell politicians –– respect the science and cut respect the science and cut
the fishing effortthe fishing effort
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IN SUMMARY
The End of the Line The End of the Line –– Step OneStep One
�� Ask before you buy Ask before you buy –– eat only sustainable seafoodeat only sustainable seafood
YES YES
BUTBUT
Be aware of the source of the advice as to sustainability Be aware of the source of the advice as to sustainability
e.g. Special interest groups e.g. Special interest groups -- some systems mark some systems mark ANYANY trawl trawl
caught fish caught fish redred
HilbornHilborn: : Trawling provides 7% of meat and fish consumption worldwide Trawling provides 7% of meat and fish consumption worldwide
Replace that fish by meat production through grazing: Replace that fish by meat production through grazing:
requires area five times the size of remaining rain forestrequires area five times the size of remaining rain forest
Which is more environmentally friendly: fishing or meat production?Which is more environmentally friendly: fishing or meat production?
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IN SUMMARY
The End of the Line The End of the Line –– Step TwoStep Two
�� Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible
fishingfishing
MPAs are neither a panacea nor sufficientMPAs are neither a panacea nor sufficientMPAs are neither a panacea nor sufficientMPAs are neither a panacea nor sufficient
Mike Beck Mike Beck (in The Nature Conservancy’s (in The Nature Conservancy’s Science Chronicles Science Chronicles Jan 2007)Jan 2007)The few solutions that are offered are simplistic, e.g. ‘lets stop The few solutions that are offered are simplistic, e.g. ‘lets stop
fishing in certain areas’fishing in certain areas’
The concept is being The concept is being heavilyheavily oversoldoversold
Require cogent scientific rationale before Require cogent scientific rationale before
implementing any specific proposalimplementing any specific proposal
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IN SUMMARY
The End of the Line The End of the Line –– Step ThreeStep Three
�� Tell politicians Tell politicians –– respect the science and cut respect the science and cut
the fishing effortthe fishing effort
YES! YES! YES!YES! YES! YES!
THIS IS WHAT THIS IS WHAT REALLY REALLY MATTERS!MATTERS!
90% of the world’s fisheries problems will be rapidly solved 90% of the world’s fisheries problems will be rapidly solved
by ensuring respect for sound scientific advice on catches, by ensuring respect for sound scientific advice on catches,
and reducing available fishing effort to the corresponding and reducing available fishing effort to the corresponding
level needed level needed
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Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention
Acknowledgements for assistance with presentation Acknowledgements for assistance with presentation
information/development information/development and preparation:and preparation:information/development information/development and preparation:and preparation:
Trevor Trevor BranchBranch (Univ. Washington)(Univ. Washington)
Ray Ray HilbornHilborn (Univ. Washington)(Univ. Washington)
Laurie Laurie KellKell (ICCAT)(ICCAT)
Mark Mark MaunderMaunder (IATTC)(IATTC)
Andrea Andrea MüllerMüller
Victor Victor RestrepoRestrepo (ISSF)(ISSF)
William RobinsonWilliam Robinson