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HowRussiaUndercutsItselfwiththeS-300DoreGold,May30,2013

SupplyoftheS-300byMoscowwillcreateanairdefenseumbrellaoverSyriaallowingDamascustocarryoutweaponstransfersto

Hezbollah.

InmakingthecaseforthesupplyofS-300missilestoSyria,

Russiashighlyexperiencedforeignminister,SergeiLavrov,triedto

makethepointthathisgovernmentwasonlysellingDamascusa

purelydefensivesystem.TheS-300,hesaid,aswasclearfromitsname,

wasforpurposesofairdefense.

Inotherwords,hewassuggestingthattherewereweapons

systems,likeairdefensemissiles,thatwereinherentlydefensiveby

theirnature.

Ironically,bymakingthisargument,Lavrovwasunderminingone

ofthemainpillarsofMoscowscaseagainstotherdefensivesystems

whichithasopposedvociferouslyinthepast.Ifdefensiveweapons

systemsshouldnotbeopposedbecause,bydefinition,theyhaveno

offensiveapplications,thenwhynotacceptUSmissiledefense

deploymentsinEasternEuropeorinothercountriesringingAsia?For

whileRussiahasbeenstressingthatitsairdefensesystemsarenot

offensiveincharacter,ithasbeenstrenuouslyopposingmissile

defensesformanyyears,refusingtoseethemasdefensiveweapons

alone.SincepresidentRonaldReaganfirstproposedtheUSanti-missile

systemknownastheStrategicDefenseInitiative(SDI)alsocalledthe

StarWarsprogramin1983,Russianstrategistsarguedtotheir

Americancounterpartsthatmissiledefensesareinherentlydestabilizing.DuringtheColdWar,stabilitywasbasedonthe

maintenanceofdeterrenceandthecredibilityofeachsuperpowers

retaliatorystrikecapability.Theargumentagainstmissiledefensesback

thenwasthatarobustSDI-typesystemcouldneutralizetheweakened

retaliatorycapacityofthesidethatwashitfirst.

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Thisstrongoppositiontomissiledefenseswasmaintainedby

MoscowafterthedisintegrationoftheSovietUnion.Tosomeextentit

wasintensifiedastheSovietmissilesforcesweredegradedandevencut

byarmscontrolagreementslikeSTART.In2007,forexample,whenthe

Bushadministrationproposedinstallingmissiledefenseinstallationsin

PolandandtheCzechRepublic,thechiefoftheRussianGeneralStaff

declaredthatMoscowwouldwithdrawfromarmscontrolagreements

withtheWestinretaliation.

Inthatsameyear,PresidentVladimirPutinevencomparedthe

deploymentofWesternanti-missilesystemstotheCubanMissileCrisis

in1962.

Russiangeneralsin2007spokeabouttargetingthesemissiledefensesystemsiftheywereorderedtodosobytheRussian

leadership.Morerecently,theUSdefensecorrespondentBillGertz

reportedonRussianmilitaryexercisessimulatinganattackonUSsea-

basedmissiledefensesdeployedonanAegiscruisernearJapan.

InaspeechinlateDecember2009,Putinlaidoutthelogicbehindthe

Russianoppositiontomissiledefenses:Bybuildingsuchanumbrella

overthemselvesour[US}partnerscouldfeelthemselvesfullysecure

andwilldowhatevertheywantwhichupsetsthebalance.

Inshort,accordingtotheRussiansstrategicdoctrine,missile

defenseswerecompletelydestabilizing.

Itwouldtakeextraordinarypoliticalacrobaticstoexplainwhy

missiledefensesinEasternEuropeendangerstability,yetrobustair

defensesbasedontheS-300inSyriasomehowcontributetostability.

Whatultimatelygivesaweaponssystemanoffensiveordefensive

characteristhestrategiccontextinwhichitisplaced.In1970,forexample,MoscowdeployedSA-2airdefensesystemsinEgyptandthen

decidedtomovethemuptotheSuezCanal,inviolationoftheUS-Soviet

StandstillAgreementatthetime.ByprovidingtheEgyptianArmywith

anairdefenseumbrellaovertheSuezCanal,andinsodoingprotecting

itfromtheIsraelAirForce,MoscowmadeitpossiblefortheEgyptians

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tocrossthecanalthreeyearslaterandlaunchtheYomKippurWar.Air

defenseswerenotjustfordefensivepurposesbutrathermadepossible

offensivegroundoperations.

IntheSyriancasetoday,Israelisnotlikelyconcernedwitha

surpriseattackbytheSyrianarmylikein1973,giventhestateofSyrias

groundforcesaftertwoyearsoffightingagainstrebeltroops.Whatis

changinginIsraelsnorthisthebuildupofHezbollah,backedbya

growingIranianmilitarypresenceonthegroundthathasbecome

engagedincombatoperationsagainstPresidentBasharAssads

opponents.

ThemostimmediateproblemisSyriaswillingnesstodeliver

advancedweaponrytoHezbollahthatcanupsetkeyaspectsofthestrategicbalance.

Besidesthetransferofchemicalweapons,Israelhasbeen

concernedwithSyriaprovidingHezbollahwithlong-rangeanti-ship

cruisemissiles,likethesupersonicRussianYakhontthatcanstrike

targets300kilometersintotheMediterranean.Lastyear,thedirectorof

theUSDefenseIntelligenceAgencydescribedtheproliferationofsuch

missilesasaconcerntotheUSNavyaswell.

IsraelhasalsofocusedonthesupplytoHezbollahofsurface-to-

surfacemissilesarmedwithparticularlyheavywarheadsforstriking

Israelicities.

ThepayloadoftheFateh110is30timesgreaterthanthatofthe

GradrocketsusedbyHezbollahin2006.

Finally,IsraelismonitoringwhetherSyriaisequippingHezbollah

withlong-rangeairdefensemissilesliketheSA-17.

UsingPutinsownlogic,supplyoftheS-300byMoscowwillcreateanairdefenseumbrellaoverSyriawhichwillprovideAssadandhis

generalsinDamascuswiththesecuritytomakethesekindsofweapons

transferstoHezbollahandtodowhatevertheywantwhichupsetsthe

balance.

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ThisisadevelopmentwhichIsraeliofficialshaveclearlystated

theymustprevent.

ThenexttimeUSofficialssitacrossfromRussiannegotiatorsover

thedeploymentofWesternmissiledefensesystems,andtheRussians

chargethatmissiledefensesaredestabilizing,Washingtonshouldbe

preparedwithallthestatementsthatcameoutofMoscowinsistingthat

theS-300airdefensesysteminSyriaispurelydefensiveandhence

threatensnoone.PresidentPutinwillnotaccepttheapplicationof

LavrovsstatementsabouttheS-300totheUSmissiledefense

deployments,butintakingthatpositionhewillbegoingintoimportant

negotiationsforRussiawithamuchweakerhandthanhehadbefore.