How our environment and - Allianz · How our environment and ... the permafrost in Siberia could...

6
How our environment and our societies will change The world we live in is changing, and so are our societies. Some transformations we can observe and experience every day. Others, such as the aging of our societies and global warming, might appear far removed from our everyday life. Yet these developments will have profound consequences for us. This book assembles research, forecasts and ideas from scientists around the world. They look into the future and explain what climate change and demographic trends will mean for us. They also suggest what govern- ments, societies, companies and we as individuals can do to manage change and turn it to our advantage. Among the authors: Eileen Claussen, Founder and former President of the US climate think-tank C2ES Elsa Fornero, Demographics Professor in Turin and former Italian Labor Minister Ian Goldin, Director of the interdisciplinary Oxford Martin School K.S. James, Head of the Population Research Centre in Bangalore N. Kavitha, Senior Research Officer at the Population Research Centre in Bangalore David Keith, Professor for Applied Physics at Harvard University and inventor Andreas Knie, Professor of Sociology in Berlin and Research Fellow at WZB Julia Marton-Lefèvre, Director-General of the world’s largest conservation charity IUCN Pan Jiahua, Professor at CASS in Beijing and China’s Green Person of the Year Andy Parker, Research Fellow on geoengineering in Potsdam Christian Scherf, Researcher at the InnoZ innovation think-tank Ursula M. Staudinger, Founding Director of the Robert N. Butler Columbia Aging Center Robert N. Stavins, Director of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program Frank Wolter, Senior Project Manager at InnoZ

Transcript of How our environment and - Allianz · How our environment and ... the permafrost in Siberia could...

How our environment and our societies will change

The world we live in is changing, and so are our societies. Some transformations we can observe and experience every day. Others, such as the aging of our societies and global warming, might appear far removed from our everyday life. Yet these developments will have profound consequences for us. This book assembles research, forecasts and ideas from scientists around the world. They look into the future and explain what climate change and demographic trends will mean for us. They also suggest what govern-ments, societies, companies and we as individuals can do to manage change and turn it to our advantage.

Among the authors:Eileen Claussen, Founder and former President of the US climate think-tank C2ES

Elsa Fornero, Demographics Professor in Turin and former Italian Labor Minister

Ian Goldin, Director of the interdisciplinary Oxford Martin School

K.S. James, Head of the Population Research Centre in Bangalore

N. Kavitha, Senior Research Officer at the Population Research Centre in Bangalore

David Keith, Professor for Applied Physics at Harvard University and inventor

Andreas Knie, Professor of Sociology in Berlin and Research Fellow at WZB

Julia Marton-Lefèvre, Director-General of the world’s largest conservation charity IUCN

Pan Jiahua, Professor at CASS in Beijing and China’s Green Person of the Year

Andy Parker, Research Fellow on geoengineering in Potsdam

Christian Scherf, Researcher at the InnoZ innovation think-tank

Ursula M. Staudinger, Founding Director of the Robert N. Butler Columbia Aging Center

Robert N. Stavins, Director of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program

Frank Wolter, Senior Project Manager at InnoZ

TAble of conTenTAcknowledgmenTs

A – our world16 Introduction Part A How our world is

changing

20 chapter 1 From the science to the economics and politics of climate change: An introduction by Robert N. Stavins

37 box 1 International climate talks: A short history of a long process

40 chapter 2 Nature – Our life insurance by Julia Marton-Lefèvre

52 box 2 How we saw our environment 125 years ago

56 chapter 3 The future of climate policy: The role of governments, cities, companies … and me by Eileen Claussen

72 box 3 Can climate protection boost growth and jobs?

76 chapter 4 Will solar geoengineering help us manage the risks of climate change? by David Keith and Andy Parker

93 box 4 Will climate policy leave our energy investments stranded?

96 chapter 5 How China could lead in the fight against climate change by Pan Jiahua

111 box 5 And now the weather forecast for Germany ... in 2040

114 chapter 6 The business of climate change: A view back from 2050 by Julia McNally, Simone Ruiz-Vergote and Verena Treber

4 foreword Why we are publishing this book by Michael Heise

6 Introduction What this book is about by Katinka Barysch

I would like to thank the authors of this book for their insightful and timely contributions as well as their patience with my editing of their work. Any mistakes are my responsibility. Many thanks to my colleagues at Allianz who have helped in the planning and execution of this project, to Christine Madden for her speedy and thorough proof reading and to the team at opus 5 for their imaginative layout.

Katinka Barysch, Editor

b – And us130 Introduction Part b How our societies are

changing

136 chapter 7 The future of aging: How will I live? by Ursula M. Staudinger

150 box 6 How we lived 125 years ago

154 chapter 8 European pensions and social security: Can there be a happy ending? by Elsa Fornero

172 box 7 The future of the family

176 chapter 9 How will my world change? by Andreas Knie, Christian Scherf and Frank Wolter

188 box 8 How we produce things in 2050

192 chapter 10 World on the move: The future of migration by Ian Goldin

209 box 9 Education 2.0

214 chapter 11 View from a fast-growing nation: What demographic change means for India by K.S. James and N. Kavitha

228 chapter 12 How will the private sector deal with demographic change? by Michaela Grimm

243 Imprint

244 Photo credits

245 Index of figures

The science of climate changeThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the world’s leading authority on climate change. It operates under the aus-pices of the UN and works with the support of renowned scientists from around the world. Since its inception in 1988, the IPCC has pub-lished five sets of “assessment reports”, the most recent ones (referred to as AR5) in 2013 and 2014. The new reports represent the most detailed assessment of climate change and its impacts to date. Over 830 scientists in fields such as physics, meteorology, engineering and economics have worked on these reports.

what we know about man-made climate changeThe overwhelming majority of scientists agree that the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are causing an increase in the global mean temperature; this is to say, on average, that the world is getting warmer – more in some places, less in others. The world is already 0.78 degrees C warmer than it was in the second half of the 19th century – even though scientists think that most of the warm-ing caused by additional CO2 took place in the world’s oceans, not in the atmosphere.

Among the greenhouse gases, carbon diox ide (CO2) is the most important driver of climate change. In the relatively short period since indus trialization began, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by 40  per cent. It now exceeds the highest con-cen trations recorded in ice cores during the past 800,000 years. Scientists agree that this increase is the result of human activity – essentially, the burning of oil, gas and coal.

In the new reports, scientists project what would happen to global mean temperatures in the period leading up to year 2100 depending on how much CO2 we burn in the future (see figures

A.1 and A.2). Climate experts refer to this as “emission pathways”.

scenarios for co2 emissions and rises in temperature

scenario IThe world economy becomes carbon neutral around 2080 as the result of very stringent climate policies and widespread use of green technologies, including carbon capture and storage. Climate change remains limited.

How our world is changingby Freia Then

InTRodUcTIon PART A

830scientists were involved in writing the latest IPCC climate reports

$1 trillionthe approximate amount invested in renewable energy between 2010 and 2013

1,000hunter antelopes are left in Africa, 80 per cent less than in the 1970s

78 %of greenhouse gas emissions were caused by the burning of oil, gas and coal in the last 40 years

$70–100 billionwe will have to spend every year until 2050 to cope with the consequences of climate change

2/3of the world’s biggest cities are in low-lying coastal areas

43 % rise in global water demand until 2030

17

scenario I scenario II scenario III scenario IV

will also represent a massive challenge for farming and food production.

Climate change will occur in unpredictable and often self-reinforcing ways. For example, if the world continues to get warmer, the thawing of the permafrost in Siberia could release huge amounts of methane (a greenhouse gas), which in turn would make climate change even worse. The repercussions would be profound, global and largely irreversible in the longer run. The disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet could lead to a sea-level rise of up to 7 meters. A weakening of the Gulf Stream (a warm Atlantic ocean current) or a shift in Asia’s Monsoon rain season could result in changing seasons and agricultural productivity.

In the world’s oceans, CO2 from the atmos-phere leads to increasing acidity, which is the cause of the widely observed coral bleaching. Also, if the ocean’s surface becomes warmer, the water will contain less oxygen. With less

oxygen in the water, it is increasingly difficult for fish to survive. Already today, there are dead zones in the oceans without animal life.

Climate change indirectly threatens the lives of people, especially in developing countries. Droughts, floods and storms will create food shortages because of crop shortfall as well as health problems for the affected populations.

Freia Then, Allianz Climate Solutions & Freie Universität Berlin

figure A.2 Rises in temperature

In degrees c

Sources: For temperature scenarios: IPCC, “Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections – Supplementary Material”, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press pp. 1311–1394, 2013. For emissions scenarios: M. Meinshausen, S. Smith, et al., “The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2500”, Climatic Change (Special Issue on RCPs), 2011.

4

3

2

1

0

−1

−2

1980

s

1970

s

1960

s

1950

s

1940

s

1930

s

1920

s

1910

s

1900

s

1890

s

1880

s

1870

s

1860

s

1990

s

2000

s

2010

s

2020

s

2030

s

2040

s

2050

s

2060

s

2070

s

2080

s

2090

s

scenario IICountries gradually adopt green technologies. Through pricing of land use emission, the for-est area extends throughout the rest of the century. Emissions rise until mid-century.

scenario IIIGovernments and business are slow to roll out green technologies. A high share of energy production comes from coal, oil and gas with-out carbon capture and storage. Emissions more than double in the 21st century.

scenario IVThe world’s population grows to more than 11 billion. GDP in developing countries remains low. The adoption of green technologies is very slow. Energy production quadruples. Emissions triple by 2100.

How will climate change affect our lives? Scientists agree that the effect of global warming will slowly change the world in which

we live. Sea levels will rise and glaciers and ice sheets will melt. Patterns of rainfall and storms will change, which will cause floods, droughts and other extreme weather events.

Some areas of the world will be more severely affected than others. Among those most at risk are people living in coastal areas, including c ities such as New York and Venice; river deltas, such as those in Bangladesh and in the Netherlands; and areas where water is scarce, such as the Middle East. Even regions less at risk, such as northern Europe, will suffer if temperatures change rapidly.

Moreover, in an interconnected world, events in one part of the world have knock-on effects in others. For example, a major flood, like the one in Thailand in 2011, can disrupt global sup-ply chains, which in turn can lead to production bottlenecks and drive up prices for clothes, computers, cars and other consumer goods worldwide. Big changes in weather patterns

figure A.1 co2 emission

In gigatons

scenario I scenario II scenario III scenario IV

100

80

60

40

20

0

−20

1980

s

1970

s

1960

s

1950

s

1940

s

1930

s

1920

s

1910

s

1900

s

1890

s

1880

s

1870

s

1860

s

1990

s

2000

s

2010

s

2020

s

2030

s

2040

s

2050

s

2060

s

2070

s

2080

s

2090

s

18 19

editorial officeAllianz SEGroup Public Policy and Economic ResearchKoeniginstr. 2880802 MunichGermany

creative Agencyopus 5 hamburg gmbhGroßneumarkt 5020459 HamburgGermany

Printing HouseLangebartels & Juergens GmbHWoerdemanns Weg 5822527 HamburgGermany

This book is published by Allianz SE, Koeniginstr. 28, 80802 Munich, Germany. All right reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited. All paper used in the production of this book comes from well managed sources.

ImPRInT

243

Index of fIgUResPHoTo cRedITs

18 fIgURe A.1 CO2 emission19 fIgURe A.2 Rises in temperature26 fIgURe 1.1 Share of fuel type in total

energy consumption33 fIgURe 1.2 Cumulative greenhouse gas

emissions61 fIgURe 3.1 The European carbon price66 fIgURe 3.2 The cost of solar power98 fIgURe 5.1 Total CO2 emissions99 fIgURe 5.2 CO2 emissions per capita104 fIgURe 5.3 Energy consumption per capita105 fIgURe 5.4 Growth in the population,

GDP per capita and car ownership108 fIgURe 5.5 Targets of the 12th five-year plan

for energy development132 fIgURe b.1 The world’s population133 fIgURe b.2 Fertility rates by region134 fIgURe b.3 Life expectancy at birth135 fIgURe b.4 Population aged 65 and older138 fIgURe 7.1 Life expectancy at birth in

developed countries145 fIgURe 7.2 Lifelong learning156 fIgURe 8.1 Living longer, retiring earlier166 fIgURe 8.2 Italian economic growth

and public debt181 fIgURe 9.1 Car ownership196 fIgURe 10.1 Developements in mirgration197 fIgURe 10.2 GDP per capita200 fIgURe 10.3 Stock of migrants216 fIgURe 11.1 India’s population growth is

slowing sharply217 fIgURe 11.2 India will have a large and

stable working-age population219 fIgURe 11.3 Fertility is higher in the north

and lower in cities231 fIgURe 12.1 Time spent in retirement is getting

longer

234 fIgURe 12.2 Europe’s shrinking pool of workers235 fIgURe 12.3 The aging of workforces is a

worldwide trend236 fIgURe 12.4 Potential to increase participation

in the labor force

ofc xPACIFICA/Corbis6 plainpicture/Cultura14 Henn Photography/Corbis20 Paul Souders/Corbis23 Patrick J. Endres/AlaskaPhotoGraphics/Corbis30 picture alliance/dpa34 2/Don Farrall/Ocean/Corbis40 Perry L Aragon/Moment/Getty Images45 Cyril Ruoso/JH Editorial/Minden Pictures/Corbis48 Enrique Castro-Mendivil/Reuters50 Monalyn Gracia/Corbis53 Bettmann/Corbis56 plainpicture/Elektrons 0860 Karim Jaafar/AFP/Getty Images64 P.H. Yang/Demotix/Corbis67 Mike Blake/Reuters69 Vincent West/Reuters76 NASA/Roger Ressmeyer/Corbis79 picture alliance/dpa82 NASA/Reuters86 Torsten Blackwood/AFP/Getty Images89 Paul Yeung/Reuters96 Jason Lee/Reuters/Corbis100 Tony Law/Redux/laif103 Keren Su/Corbis113 MeteoSchweiz113 Thomas Ebert/laif114 Vincent Nguyen/Riva Press/laif117 Jonathan Blair/Corbis120 Cameron Davidson/Corbis123 SURE Architecture126 Peathegee Inc/Blend Images/Getty Images128 Nash Photos/Photographer’s Choice/

Getty Images136 plainpicture/Fancy Images140 Jose Luis Pelaez/Corbis141 Rana Faure/Corbis

143 Musketeer/Iconica/Getty Images146 Mads Nissen/laif151 collector/voller Ernst/fotofinder152 Vintage Germany/fotofinder154 picture alliance/dpa157 Paul Sutherland/13/Ocean/Corbis158 John Fulton/Gallery Stoc161 Luis Rubim/Demotix/Demotix/Corbis164 Tony Duffy/Sports/Getty Images169 BartekSzewczyk/iStock/Thinkstock175 Michele Constantini/PhotoAlto/Corbis176 picture alliance/dpa179 picture alliance/dpa183 Sarah Johanna Eick/Corbis184 Jon Hicks/Corbis189 picture alliance/dpa190 picture alliance/dpa192 Andy Kropa/Getty Images195 Darrin Zammit Lupi/Handout/Reuters199 Shutterstock206 moodboard/Corbis214 Jim Holmes/Design Pics/Corbis218 Silke Wernet/laif223 Dirk Kruell/laif224 Francois Lenoir/Reuters228 Ian Lishman/Juice Images/Corbis232 Colin Hawkins/Corbis241 plainpicture/Maskot

244 245