How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 1Slide 1

Examples in Quantifying Flood Risk

Presentation toNational Flood Risk Management

Policy Summit

Edward HeckerDirector, Contingency OperationsU.S. Army Corps of Engineers

14 July 2009

How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 2

piezometer_pointpiezometer_pointborehole_point borehole_point

levee_inspection_pointlevee_inspection_point

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levee_flood_fight_sitelevee_flood_fight_site

levee_break_sitelevee_break_site

levee_inspection_linelevee_inspection_linecross_section_linecross_section_line

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Flood Risk Management

Inventory and Assessments

• National Levee Inventory: • Living database and national resource. • Include all federal and nonfederal levees • Risk Assessments:• Identify failure modes and prioritize remedial

actions.

How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 3

Risk QuantificationRisk = Hazard Probability X System Performance X Consequences

Flood HazardsSeismic HazardsAsymmetric Hazards

Infrastructure ReliabilityInfrastructure ResilienceOperation & MaintenanceContingency Planning and ResponseMitigation

Life LossProperty DamageSocial and Economic DamageEnvironmentEvacuationDisaster Recovery

Probability of Failure

• Risk Quantification is key to managing risks:– Understanding the source and nature of the Risk– Communicating the Risk– Acting to Reduce the Risk

Flood Risk Management

How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 4

Tolerable Risk Guidelineswithin a Risk Framework

• Informing Assessments:– How Safe is Safe?– Priority & Urgency– What is Tolerable?

• Informing Management:– Effectiveness of Interim

Measures?– What Options are Available?– What is Practicable?– How Well Justified is Action?

• Informing Communication:– How reliable is it?– What are Societal Risks?– What Risks Remain?

TRG

Tolerable Risk Guidelines

Risk Framework

Flood Risk Management

How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 5

Shared Flood Risk Management

Residual Risk

How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 6

Policy Studies• Wise Use of Floodplains – An ongoing, IWR policy

study to understand the effects of USACE programs and policies in different policy and watershed contexts on floodplain management choices affecting flood risk, and to describe options for policy, legislative or program reforms.

• WRDA 2007, Section 2032 - The President is to submit a report to Congress describing the vulnerability of the U.S. to damage from flooding, comparative risks faced by different regions of the country, programs in the U.S. which may be encouraging development and economic activity in flood prone areas, and recommendations for improving those programs and proposals for implementing the recommendations.

How Katrina Impacted the Corps, and Implications for Those Living Near Water 7

Preparation/Training

Mitigation Recovery

Response

Flood Risk Management Cycle

State & local partnerships• Hazard mitigation plans• Floodplain mgnt plans• Pre & post response and recovery

Event