How do Improvements in Performance and Cost (i.e., what are the mechanisms)?:

3nd Session in MT5009

A/Prof Jeffrey FunkDivision of Engineering and Technology Management

National University of Singapore

A summary of these ideas can be found in 1) What Drives Exponential Improvements? California Management Review, Spring 20132) Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries, Stanford University Press, 20133) Exponential Change: What drives it? What does it tell us about the future? http://www.amazon.com/Exponential-Change-drives-

about-future-ebook/dp/B00HPSAYEM/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1391564750&sr=1-1&keywords=exponential+change

Objective of this Session

Understanding the mechanisms of improvements can help us understand when a new technology might become economically feasible

For economic feasibility, we can also use the term value proposition◦When does a new technology provide a superior

value proposition to some set (or an increasing number) of users

New Technologies Diffuse….Because they offer a superior value

proposition to some set of users (when compared to existing technologies)

Larger value propositions (e.g., profitability) lead to faster rates of diffusion

Benefits from the value proposition include◦superior performance in one or more dimensions◦superior features, lower price

When might improvements in cost or performance enable a new technology to offer a superior value proposition?

OutlineValue Proposition and economic feasibilityHow do Improvements in Cost and

Performance Occur, i.e., what are the mechanisms? ◦Creating materials that better exploit physical

phenomena◦Geometrical scaling◦Some technologies directly experience

improvements through these two mechanisms while others indirectly experience them through improvements in specific “components”

Simple Definition of Value Proposition

Value to

the target market

Benefits tothe

target market

Price tothe

target market

=Relative

to

A simple and clear statement of what the new technology provides and that the existing technology does not: better performance, features, or price

Mainframe Computers

PCs

For Example, Compare the New and Old Technologies Along Multiple Dimensions (Example of Current Computers)

LowPrice

Processing Speed

MemoryCapacity

SmallPhysical Size

User Interface

Laptop Computers

High

Low

ShortResponse Time

Tablet Computers

You Must Show Quantitative DataIdentify the relevant dimensions of

performanceCompare the technologies in terms of

quantitative data (cost and performance)Understand the trends in performance and

cost◦Is the new technology experiencing

improvements or might it experience rapid improvements?

◦When might these improvements enable the technology to provide superior value proposition?

OutlineValue Proposition and economic feasibilityHow do Improvements in Cost and

Performance Occur, i.e., what are the mechanisms? ◦Creating materials that better exploit physical

phenomena◦Geometrical scaling◦Some technologies directly experience

improvements through these two mechanisms while others indirectly experience them through improvements in specific “components”

How do improvements occur?A Key Aspect of any Technology, what some call a

Technology Paradigm

1) technology’s basic concepts or principles and tradeoffs that are defined by concepts or principles

2) directions of advance within these tradeoffs where these advances are defined by a technological trajectory(s); ◦What drives improvements in cost and performance?

3) potential limits to these trajectories and their paradigms

4) roles of components and scientific knowledge in these limits

Focusing on ImprovementsCreating materials (and their associated

processes) that better exploit physical phenomena

Geometrical scaling◦Increases in scale: e.g., larger production equipment,

engines, oil tankers◦Reductions in scale: e.g., integrated circuits (ICs),

magnetic storage, MEMS, bio-electronic ICsSome technologies directly experience

improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in “components” ◦Computers and other electronic systems◦Telecommunication systems

Items 1, 2, 3: involve lighting

Other Evidence for Lighting Full quote for LEDs from Azevedo et al, 2009: “In 1962, Holonyak,

while with General Electric’s Solid- State Device Research Laboratory, made a red emitting GaAsP inorganic LED [27]. The output was very low (about 0.1 lm/W), corresponding to an efficiency of 0.05% [27]. Changing materials (toAlGaAs/GaAs) and incorporating quantum wells, by 1980, the efficacy of his red LED had grown to 2 lm/W, about the same as the first filament light bulb invented by Thomas Edison in 1879. An output of 10 lm/W was achieved in 1990, and a red emitting light AllnGaP/GaP-based LED reached an output of 100 lm/W in 2000 [27]. In 1993, Nakamura demonstrated InGaN blue LEDs [28]. By adding additional indium, he then produced green LEDs and, by adding a layer of yellow phosphor on top of the blue LED, he was able to produce the first white LED. By 1996, Nichia developed the first white LED based on a blue monochromatic light and a YAG down-converter.”

Quote for Organic LEDs: “The next few years should see major advances in this area, and the availability of a much wider array of durable materials and processes than currently exist for the device designer.” (Sheats et al, 1996).

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Commercial_laser_lines.svg

Item, 20, Organic TransistorsNote the different material classes and the improvements for each of them

Huanli Dong , Chengliang Wang and Wenping Hu, High Performance Organic Semiconductors for Field-Effect Transistor, Chemical Commununications, 2010,46, 5211-5222

Energy Storage: Batteries

Sources: Koh and Magee, 2008; Naoi and Simon, 2008)

Capacitors. Note that energy density is a function of capacitance times voltage

squared and the names of different materials

Sources: Koh and Magee, 2008; Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 11(2007): 235-258

Flywheels. Note that energy density is a function of mass times velocity squared and

stronger materials (carbon fiber) enable higher speeds

Solar Cells

1998 2002 2006 2010 20140

5

10

15

20

Organic

Perovskite

QuantumDots

Superconductors

Structural and Heat-Resistant Materials

Magnetic materials (Coercivityand energy product) and corn yield through better seeds

Source: http://www.tdk.co.jp/magnet_e/superiority_02/

TechnologyDomain

Sub-Technology

Dimensions of measure

Different Classes of Materials

Energy Trans-formation

Lighting Light intensity per unit cost

Candle wax, gas, carbon and tungsten filaments, semiconductor and organic materials for LEDs

LEDs Luminosity per Watt

Group III-V, IV-IV, and II-VI semiconductorsOrganic LEDs Small molecules, polymers, phosphorescent materials Solar Cells Power output

per unit costSilicon, Gallium Arsenide, Cadmium Telluride, Cadmium Indium Gallium Selenide, Dye-Sensitized, Organic, Perovskite

Energy storage

Batteries Energy stored per unit volume, mass or cost

Lead acid, Nickel Cadmium, Nickel Metal Hydride, Lithium Polymer, Lithium-ion

Capacitors Carbons, polymers, metal oxides, ruthenium oxide, ionic liquids

Flywheels Stone, steel, glass, carbon fibers, carbon nanotubesInformation Trans-formation

Organic Transistors

Mobility (cm2/ Volt-seconds)

Polythiophenes, thiophene oligomers, polymers, hthalocyanines, heteroacenes, tetrathiafulvalenes, perylene diimides naphthalene diimides, acenes, C60

Living Organisms

Biological transformation

U.S. corn output per area

Open pollinated, double cross, single cross, biotech GMO

Materials Load Bearing Strength to weight ratio

Iron, Steel, Composites, Carbon Fibers

Magnetic Strength Steel/Alnico Alloys, Fine particles, Rare earths

Coercivity Steel/Alnico Alloys, SmCo, PtCo, MaBi, Ferrites,

Different Classes of Materials were found for Many Technologies

New Processes are Often Key Part of Creating New Materials

New materials usually involve new processes◦Semiconductor ICs, MEMS, bio-electronic ICs,

nanotechnology, lighting, displays, batteries◦We will talk about new materials and

processes for them throughout this module

Incremental Improvements to these processes are also important

Learning curve emphasizes small changes to the processes, which do play a role in achieving improvements

But small changes to the processes can’t explain exponential improvements in performance

Without new materials and most importantly new classes of materials, exponential improvements would not be achieved

For these and other TechnologiesAt what rate is a technology being improved along the

relevant dimensions of performance or cost?When might these improvements lead to a superior value

proposition for ◦some set of users?◦most users?

What are the potential/limits for improvements: can new materials that better exploit a specific physical phenomena still be found?

Are there complementary technologies that are needed for these improvements?

As an aside, what are the policies or strategies that will ◦promote these improvements?◦help us find and exploit these markets?

Must Also be Concerned with Abundance, Since Impacts Cost

OutlineValue Proposition and economic feasibilityHow do Improvements in Cost and

Performance Occur, i.e., what are the mechanisms? ◦Creating materials that better exploit physical

phenomena◦Geometrical scaling◦Some technologies directly experience

improvements through these two mechanisms while others indirectly experience them through improvements in specific “components”

Geometric Scaling (1)Definition

◦refers to relationship between geometry of technology, the scale of it, and the physical laws that govern it

◦“scale effects are permanently embedded in the geometry and the physical nature of the world in which we live” (Lipsey et al, 2005)

Studied by some engineers (and biologists), but only within their discipline◦chemical engineers: chemical plants (many references)◦mechanical engineers: engines, tankers, aircraft (fewer) ◦electrical engineers: ICs, magnetic, optical storage (many)

But very few analyses◦For engineering in general◦By management professors ◦By economists

Geometric Scaling (2)For technologies that benefit from smaller scale, the

benefits can be particularly large, since◦costs of material, equipment, factory, transportation typically

fall over long term as size is reduced◦performance of only some technologies benefit from small size◦smaller transistors or magnetic regions can increase speed,

functionality; reduce power consumption, size of final productFor technologies that benefit from larger scale

◦output is roughly proportional to one dimension (e.g., length cubed or volume) more than is the costs (e.g., length squared or area) thus causing output to rise faster than do costs, as the scale of technology is increased

◦Also true with biology examples (think of thin vs. heavy people)

What do the dimensions of these creatureshave to do with scaling?

Enough biology (Bonner, J. 2006, Why Size Matters: From Bacteria to Blue Whales, Princeton University Press. Schmidt-Nielsen K 1984. Scaling: Why is Animal Size so Important?)

Let’s Move to technologies and ones that benefit from reductions in scale

Figure 2. Declining Feature Size

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Micr

omete

rs (M

icron

s)

Gate OxideThickness

Junction Depth

Feature length

Source: (O'Neil, 2003)

But this wasn’t simple. Reducing the scale of features on a transistor required better processes and new equipment for these processes

Often this equipment was developed in laboratories and often the laboratories of suppliers

While some might call this learning…….. It is a special form of learning that goes beyond tinkering with existing processes

Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation also implies that performance improvements automatically emerge once a low-end innovation has been found

Christensen’s interpretation1) Low-end innovations emerge and are

used by a new set of customers; 2) Incumbents ignore them because they

do not meet needs of their customers;

3) Increases in demand lead to improvements in them;

4) Eventually low-end innovation displaces dominant technology and thus incumbents fail in both new and established market

My Questions1) How do firms increase the capacity of

disk drives?2) What drove and in particular which

markets for disk drives drove these improvements?

3) Are these large (or small) improvements in capacity?4) How many other products experience such large improvements?

For other examples, see “When do Low-End Innovations Become Disruptive Ones” on slideshare

HDD: HardDisk Drives

Reductions in Scale Drive Improvements in Capacity

Areal RecordingDensity of Hard Disks

Improvements in Areal Recording Density

Source: http://lib.stanford.edu/files/pasig-jan2012/11B7%20Francis%20PASIG_2011_Francis_final.pdf

These Reductions in Scale Lead to Falling Price per Bit

Source: Yeoungchin Yoon, Nano-Tribology of Discrete Track Recording Media, Unpublished PhD Dissertation, University of California, San Diego

But the creation of new materials also help………

https://www1.hgst.com/hdd/technolo/overview/chart11.html

Other Technologies that Benefit from Reductions in Scale (1)

MEMS (micro-electronic mechanical systems) for many applications◦Gyroscopes, resonators ◦micro-mirrors, photonics◦ink jet nozzles for printers, micro-gas analyzers

Bio-electronic ICs (MEMS with micro-fluidic channels) for many applications◦Point-of-care diagnostics ◦Drug delivery◦chips embedded in clothing, body, etc.

DNA sequencing

Other Technologies that Benefit from Reductions in Scale (2)

Nano-technology for many applications ◦E.g., membranes, nano-particles, nano-fibers,

graphene, carbon nanotubes: e.g., smaller size leads to higher surface area-to volume ratios

◦Also other phenomena that benefit from smaller scale (Richard Feynman first noted these things in the 1950s: There is a lot of room at the bottom)

These technologies benefit from reductions in scale because certain phenomena occur at small scale

These applications are covered in detail in subsequent sessions

OutlineValue Proposition and economic feasibilityHow do Improvements in Cost and

Performance Occur?◦Creating materials that better exploit……◦Geometrical scaling

Increases in scale◦ larger production equipment: more benefits for continuous

flow, furnaces/smelters, displays/solar panels than with discrete parts (e.g., automobiles)

◦Engines and transportation equipment: large benefits

◦Some technologies directly experience improvements through these two mechanisms…

Scaling in Production Equipment

We all know about economies of scale◦ But some products benefit from economies of scale more

than do others◦ Why? Some products benefit from increases in scale of

production equipment more than do othersLargest benefits for

◦ chemicals, other continuous flow equipment◦ furnaces and smelters

Smaller benefits for discrete parts equipmentBut also large benefits for

◦ Semiconductor wafers, displays, solar cells, graphene, carbon nanotubes, and their manufacturing equipment,

Production of Liquids or Gasesin a Continuous Flow Factory

Many products are liquids or gases or are in liquid or gaseous state during production

Processes such as mixing, separating, heating, cooling, filtering, settling, extracting, distilling, drying are done in pipes and reaction vessels

Pipes◦Cost is function of surface area (or radius)◦Output is function of volume (or radius squared)

Reaction vessels ◦Cost is function of surface area (or radius squared)◦Output is function of volume (radius cubed)

Results of ScalingEmpirical analyses have found that equipment costs

only rise about 2/3 for each doubling of equipment capacity

Large continuous flow manufacturing plants have been constructed

For example, ◦Ethylene was produced in plants with less than 10,000 tons

of capacity in 1942◦By 1968, it was being produced in factories with a capacity

of 500,000 tons per year◦Capital costs per unit dropped 25% during these years

Barriers to Increases in Scale

Scaling only works if thickness of pipes and reaction vessels do not have to be increased◦this requires better materials◦Without these better materials, benefits from scaling

would not occurWeight increases as the cube of a dimension

while strength only increases as the square of a dimension

Thus, limits to size of continuous flow plants begin to emerge

Similar arguments apply to many of the other examples described this semester

OutlineValue Proposition and economic feasibilityExisting theories of technological changeWhat Drives Improvements?

◦Creating materials that better exploit…..◦Geometrical scaling

Reductions in scale Increases in scale

◦ larger production equipment: more benefits for continuous flow, furnaces/smelters, displays/solar panels than with discrete parts (e.g., automobiles)

◦Engines and transportation equipment: large benefits

◦Some technologies directly experience improvements through these two mechanisms….

Furnaces and SmeltersUsed to process metals such as steel, copper, and

aluminumThis processing requires large amounts of fuel and

oxygenBenefits to scaling; similar to but perhaps smaller

than continuous flow production◦Cost of constructing furnace and heat loss from furnace or

smelter is function of area ◦Output is function of volume

For example, ◦Steel factories had a capacity of a single ton per day in 1700

and 10,000 tons per day by 1990◦Cost of crude steel dropped between 80 and 90 percent from

the early 1860s to the mid-1890s (following emergence of Bessemer process)

From small scale (2000 years ago) to big scale (20th century)

Example of Even Bigger Furnaces: Modern Steel Mill

Increasing Scale of Blast Furnaces: Output Rose with Volume while Capital Costs and Heat Loss Rose with Surface Area

Vaclav Smil, Creating the Twentieth Century: Technical Innovations of 1867-1914 and Their Lasting Impact

Complementary Technologies Often are Needed to Benefit from “Scaling”Size of a furnace or smelter is limited by

need to deliver smooth flow of air to all of molten metal

Hand- and animal-driven bellows could only deliver a limited flow of air

Water-driven bellows and steam-driven ones allowed air to be injected with more force so that larger furnaces could be built

Large steam engines further increased the potential scale of furnaces/smelters

Bellows For Fireplace: Much Bigger Ones are Needed for Blast Furnaces

Increasing Scale of Aluminum “Cells:” Output Rose with Volume while Capital Costs and Heat Loss Rose with Surface Area

Inflation adjusted prices/costs also fell: prices fell from $721/ton in 1900 to $65.6/ton in 2000 ($1640 in 2000 prices)

Electrolytic cell for 300 kA prebaked carbon anode technology for aluminum production

Cross section of a modern prebake anode aluminum reduction cell

For Your ProjectsSome groups will analyze new materials that will

probably benefit from increases in scaleTry to use the previous slides to estimate the

benefits from increasing the scale of production equipment

When you find data that says a technology benefits from increases in temperature or pressure, it is likely that increases in temperature or pressure require increases in scale

Academic papers might not tell you there are benefits from increases in scale◦They will focus on design tradeoffs◦You must read between the lines

OutlineValue Proposition and economic feasibilityExisting theories of technological changeWhat Drives Improvements?

◦Creating materials that better exploit…..◦Geometrical scaling

Reductions in scale Increases in scale

◦ larger production equipment: more benefits for continuous flow, furnaces/smelters, displays/solar panels than with discrete parts (e.g., automobiles)

◦Engines and transportation equipment: large benefits

◦Some technologies directly experience improvements through these two mechanisms….

Discrete Parts ProductionMuch lower benefits from increases in scale

of discrete parts production equipment than from equipment used to produce◦liquids, gases (continuous flow production), ◦metals (furnaces and smelters)

Larger machines can load, cut, bore, unload, and assemble parts somewhat faster than can smaller machines

Benefits of scaling in discrete parts production also depends on types of product. More benefits for automobiles than for apparel or shoes

Impact of Scaling in Production Equipment on Price of AutosIn 1909: standard 4-seat Model T cost $850

(equivalent to $20,091 in 2011)The price dropped

◦ to $440 in 1915 (equivalent to $9,237 in 2011)◦ $290 in 1920s (equivalent to $3,191 in 2011 or similar to

cheapest Tata-Nano) mostly because of substituting equipment for labor

Since then the scale of automobile factories has been reduced

Today few auto factories produce more than 100,000 autos/year

Diminishing returns to scale emerged many years ago

OutlineValue Proposition and economic feasibilityExisting theories of technological changeWhat Drives Improvements?

◦Creating materials that better exploit…..◦Geometrical scaling

Reductions in scale Increases in scale

◦ larger production equipment: more benefits for continuous flow, furnaces/smelters, displays/solar panels than with discrete parts (e.g., automobiles)

◦Engines and transportation equipment: large benefits

◦Some technologies directly experience improvements through these two mechanisms….

Increases in Scale of IC Wafers, LCD Substrates, Solar Substrates (1)

Equipment costs per area of output fall as size of equipment is increased, similar to chemical plants◦Cost is function of surface area (or radius squared)◦Output is function of volume (radius cubed)◦Thus, costs increase by 2/3 for each doubling

For IC Wafers, LCD and Solar Substrates◦Processing time per area (inverse of output) fall as

volume of gas, liquid, and reaction chambers become larger; costs rise as function of equipment’s surface area

◦Transfer times per area may also fall with larger substrates

◦Larger wafers/substrates have smaller edge effects

One Benefit from Large Panels is Smaller Edge Effects

LCD or Solar Substrate

Equipment

Effect Effects: the equipment must be much wider than panel to achieve uniformity

Ratio of equipment to panel width falls as the size of the panel is increased

http://www.electroiq.com/articles/sst/print/volume-50/issue-2/features/cover-article/scaling-and-complexity-drive-lcd-yield-strategies.html

LCD substrates

Other Flat Panel Technologies

Not just semiconductor wafers, LCDs, and solar cells

Continuous casting of steelRoll-to roll printing for newspapers,

magazines, OLEDs, and flexible substrates◦Organic solar cells◦RFID tags

Some of these technologies will be discussed in the next few sessions

OutlineValue Proposition and economic feasibilityExisting theories of technological changeWhat Drives Improvements?

◦Creating materials that better exploit…..◦Geometrical scaling

Reductions in scale Increases in scale

◦ larger production equipment◦Engines and transportation equipment: large benefits

◦Some technologies directly experience improvements through these two mechanisms….

Example of Benefits of Larger Scale: Engines

Diameter of cylinder (D)

Cost of cylinderor piston is function of cylinder’s surface area (πDH)

Output of engineis function ofCylinder/piston’svolume (πD2H/4)

Result: output risesfaster than costs asdiameter is increased

Heightofcylinder(H)

1

10

100

1000

10000

1 10 100 1000 10000Output (Scale)

Pri

ce p

er O

utpu

tPrice Per Output (Horsepower)

Marine EngineLargest is 90,000 HP

Source: Honda’s 2010 Price List

From ¾ horsepower in 1885 (Benz) to world’s largest internal combustion engine (90,000 HP)

Produced by Wartsila-Sulzerand used in the Emma Maersk (a ship)

Increasing power density of engines is largely from increasing the scale of engines

From 1807 tons in 1878 To 500,000 tons in 2009

Oil Tankers

Holds18,000 containers (11% bigger than previous one) and has20% less fuel consumption per ton than previous one (cost of $190 million), http://edition.cnn.com/2013/06/26/business/maersk-triple-e-biggest-ship/index.html?hpt=ibu_c2

From 10 HP (horse power) in 1817 To 1,300,000 HP today (1000 MW)

Steam engine

Their modern day equivalent: steam turbine

From Kilowatts (125 HP engine) to Giga-Watts

Electricity Generating Plants

Edison’s Pearl Street Station More Recent Plantin NY City (1880)

From DC-1 in 1931(12 passengers, 180 mph)

To A-380 in 2005(900* passengers, 560 mph)

*Economy only mode

*economy only mode

1

10

100

1000

10000

0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000

Rel

ativ

e P

rice

per

Ou

tpu

tRelative Price Per Output Falls as Scale Increases

Steam Engine (in HP) Maximum scale: 1.3 M HP

Marine EngineLargest is 90,000 HP

Chemical Plant: 1000s of tons of ethyleneper year; much smaller plants built

Commercial aircraftSmallest one had

12 passengers

Oil Tanker:1000s of tonsSmallest was

1807 tons

Output (Scale)

LCD Mfg Equip: Largest panel size is 16 square meters

Aluminum(1000s of amps)

Electric PowerPlants (in MW); much smaller ones built

For your ProjectsDoes your technology benefit from increases or

decreases in scale? If so, what kind? Smaller or larger?◦Can we analyze this scaling and the potential cost reductions

from scaling◦Can we estimate when might these benefits from geometric

scaling lead to a superior value proposition for some set of users? most users?

Also what are the potential limits from geometric scaling? Or are there complementary technologies that are needed to benefit from geometric scaling

If the technology does not benefit from increases or decreases in scale, maybe a “key” component does

OutlineValue Proposition and economic feasibilityExisting theories of technological changeWhat Drives Improvements?

◦Creating materials that better exploit physical phenomena

◦Geometrical scaling◦Some technologies directly experience

improvements through these two mechanisms while others indirectly experience them through improvements in specific “components”

ComputersNote the similar levels of improvements between 1960 and 2000 (about 7 orders of magnitude)

Source: ICKnowledge, 2009; Koh and Magee, 2006)

As one computer designer argued, by the late 1940s computer designers had recognized that “architectural tricks could not lower the cost of a basic computer; low cost computing had to wait for low cost logic” (Smith, 1988)

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Computer Tomography (CT)

Improvements in MRI and CT were driven by improvements in computers and they were driven by improvements in ICs

Quote by Trajtenberg (1990)◦“However, it was not until the advent of microelectronics

and powerful mini-computers in the early seventies, the early seventies, coupled with significant advances in electro-optics and nuclear physics, that the revolution in imaging technologies started in earnest. Computed Tomography scanners came to epitomize this revolution and set the stage for subsequent innovations, such as………..and the wonder of the eighties, Magnetic Resonance Imaging”

Quotes from Kalendar, 2006◦ “Computed tomography became feasible with the development of

modern computer technology in the 1960s”

Wireless TransportNote reductions in feature sizes, which were needed for new cellular systems

Components and Systems (1)Some components have a large impact on

performance of a systemComponents that benefit from scaling can

◦have a large impact on performance and cost of systems, even before system is implemented

◦lead to changes in relative importance of cost and performance and between various dimensions of performance

◦lead to discontinuities in systemsImprovements in components may enable

new forms of systems to emerge

Components and Systems (2)Improvements in engines impacted on

◦Locomotives, ships◦Automobiles, aircraft

Improvements in ICs impacted on◦computers, servers, routers, telecommunication

systems and the Internet◦radios, televisions, recording devices, and other

consumer electronics◦mobile phones and other handheld devices◦controls for many mechanical products

Improvements in ICs led to many discontinuities in systems

Laptops MP3 PlayersCalculators Video Set-top boxes E-Book ReadersDigital Games Web Browsers Digital TV Watches Mobile Digital Cameras Smart PhonesPCs Phones PDAs Tablet Computers

Increases in the Number of Transistors Make New Forms of Electronic Products Economically Feasible

Components and Systems (3)Improvements in ICs are still driving

emergence of new electronic systems such as new forms of◦Autonomous vehicles◦Holographic display systems◦3D scanners◦Eye tracking◦Wireless charging◦Google glasses, LEAP (gesture interfaces), and

augmented reality◦New mobile phone systems (e.g., 4G, 5G, cognitive

radio)◦Networks of RFID tags, smart dust, and other

sensors

Components and Systems (4)

Similar things are happening with bio-electronics, MEMS, nanotechnology: they are enabling new forms of systems to emerge◦point-care diagnostic devices◦Other forms of sensors and sensor-based systems◦Even new forms of mobile phones

Better forms of DNA sequencers and synthesizers are being driven by reductions in scale of features. They will impact on higher-level systems (e.g., health care system)

For these and other TechnologiesWhat is the minimum level of performance in a

component (such as an IC) that might enable a new electronic system to offer a superior value proposition in for example,◦Gesture and neural-based human-computer interfaces?◦Cognitive radio for mobile phone systems?◦Autonomous vehicles?

When the concepts and principles that form the basis for a new system are relatively well known, components are often the bottleneck for new systems

Summary (1)

Technologies that experience large improvements in performance and cost are more likely to create new opportunities than are other technologies

These two “mechanisms” provide a better understanding of how and why improvements occurred in some technologies more than in others◦ Creating materials that better exploit physical phenomena◦ Geometrical scaling

We can use these mechanisms to think about when a new technology might offer a superior value proposition

Summary (2)Think about how these mechanisms apply to a

specific technology for group project◦ Creating materials that better exploit physical phenomena

◦ Geometrical scaling (reductions and/or increases in scale)

◦ Both directly or indirectly (Impact of components on higher level systems)

For the technology, think about◦ current advantages and disadvantages when compared to

old technology

◦ sources and rates of improvement in new technology

◦ might these rates accelerate or de-accelerate?

◦ What kinds of new systems, i.e., entrepreneurial opportunities will these changes create?

Summary (3)

Be specific about the components in your technology and their ◦ rates of improvement◦do we expect these rates to accelerate or de-

accelerate?◦Do these components benefit from some kind of

scaling, such as reductions in scale?For many of your projects, the rates of

improvements in the components will determine the rates of improvements for your system