Moscow, 2020HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge

How does the near future of mobility look like? – Foresights, challenges and trends

Alexander Chulok

Director S&T Foresight Centre

What constitutes modern decision-making?

Year Topic of Nobile Prize Winner for Economics

1969 Dynamic models for the analysis of economic processes

1970 Static and dynamic economic theory

1972 General economic equilibrium theory

1975 Theory of optimum allocation of resources

1985 Analyses of saving and of financial markets

1987 Theory of economic growth

1991 Transaction costs and property rights

1992 Human behaviour

1993 Economic and institutional change

2001 Markets with asymmetric information

2002 Decision-making under uncertainty

2004 Driving forces behind business cycles

2017 Behavioural economics

2018 Integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_Memorial_Prize_laureates_in_Economics 5

S&T and macroeconomic Forecast

Increasing efficiency and competitiveness

Identifying Global Challenges and searching for Grand Responses

Creating mix of policy instruments

Demand for future studies

Ethical

Ecological Ecosystemic

FORESIGHT 3E

3

Evidence-based methods

Creativity methods

Expertise and networking

Foresight: Blended methodology

FORESIGHT

Big Data Analytics

Source: Chulok, 2019

iFORA:

Quantitative & qualitative methods

Trends Markets Policy

documents

Benchmarking

and

risks

Forecasts NetworksCentres of

competence

Education

and skills

Project

management

Applications

Research

articles

Research

grants /

reports

International

conferences Job

vacancies Patents Analytical

reports

Educational

programmesLegal

documents

Professional

media &

social

networks

>350 Mln documents

4

≈ 30 000 documents uploaded daily

Intelligent Foresight Analytics (iFORA) – a new step in research activities

Source: ISSEK HSE iFORA 2020

Emerging global challenges: basic structure

• Social stratification, poverty• Demographic problems• Urbanisation• Public health

• Biosecurity• Food security• Energy security

• Rejection of new institutes by the public

• Rejection of new technologies by the public

• Ethical dilemmas

• Emergence of new technology wave

• Demand for S&T innovations

• Problems with production systems’ reliability

TechnologicalPolitical and institutional

Values

Economic and

structuralEnvironmentalSocial

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• Growing demand for food• Improving wellbeing in

developing countries• Economic globalisation

• Loss of biodiversity• Climate change• Degrading agri- and

ecosystems• Depleting natural

resources

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Emerging global challenges: a view from iFORA Big Data analysis

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Источник: ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ

Values

S&T

Ecology

Social

Economic

Political

Demographics S&T&I

Source: ISSEK HSE iFORA 2020

7

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Контуры областей выделены условно, некоторые элементы кластеров

могут находиться за их пределами

Источник: iFORA ИСИЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ

Sharing economy – a closer view from iFORA

Source: ISSEK HSE iFORA 2020

Global trends 2020-2025: a view from the prism of wild cards

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Future of mobility: from MaaS to MaaPbasic hypothesis and key questions

Moving to new productionparadigm → accelerated, avalanche-likeapplication of advanced production technologies andnew materials, total customization and personalisation

Transformation of global valuechains → emergence of new ones, “elimination”of certain traditional segments, redistribution of profitmargins between participants

Moving to “action” economy →

growing roles of “system integrators” - companieswhich provide turn-key solutions by quickly assemblingthem from the best available technologies adjusted tomatch specific demand

Changes in the employmentstructure → triggered by the move towards thenew production paradigm

New education model → building “skillsportfolios” based on expected demand by companies 12

1. WHEN, NOT WHAT

2. WHY, NOT HOW

Portfolios of technologicalleadership have beencompleted: who willimplement the first?

Technocratic approach withKPI vs socio-humanist andmission oriented values ofnext generation of leaders

3. WHO: GEEKS VS ROUTINS

Growing social differentiationpromoted by AI: one genius ormillions of low qualifiedworkers

Source: Chulok, 2020

Policy:new agenda challenges

Policy →

FORESIGHT

Expectations Possibilities

External Challenges

Evidence-based analysis →“proofs” and transparency“What if ” questions → scenarios and modelling Weak signals of emerging disruptive trends → intelligencePrioritizing → detailed data Integration to policy → “smart” decisions

Multidisciplinary and multicultural research

Integration of quantitative and qualitative methods

Big Data analytics

Stakeholders engagement

Communication and networking

•Selectivity (which fields we support?)

•Concentration (which institutionor research team we support?)

•Sustainability (do we spent enough resources to reach the goal?)

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•Institutional framework (IPR, transparency, business climate, agile ecosystem, etc.)•Providing mobility and substitution of resources •Smart governance (bargain between “hard and soft” modes)

Blended Foresight for MaaS: from future into actions

Foresight

Challenges (objectives)

Markets

Products

Technologies

R&DCritical technologies

for the industry

Implementation tools

• Research

• Technological development

• Human resources, competencies

• Infrastructure

• Government policies and corporate strategies

Priorities Technology roadmaps

MONITORING AND EVALUATION

• Subject areas

• Production potential

• Characteristics of markets and innovative products

• Support measures

14Source: Chulok, 2019

Thank you for your attention!

achulok@hse.ru