An Analysis of Wind Energy and Danish Power Clusters

ANDERS LARSEN E03647 ALESSANDRO PAPELLO 627411 CHRISTIAN JØRGENSEN E03629

JONAS PETTERSSON E03685 MARIA D SANCHEZ HERRERO (LOLA) E03697

SIYUN SHEN 636471

1/1/2011

LU IS S GU I DO C AR LI UN IV E RSI TY VIA LE RO MA NI A 3 2 0 0 1 9 7 ROMA I TA LY TE L + 3 9 0 6 8 5 2 2 5 5 0 4 F AX + 3 9 0 6 8 5 2 2 5 9 8 5

INTE R NAT ION AL B U SI NE S S C LA SS : PROFESSOR JOHN A. MATHEWS

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C O N T E N T S

1 . IN TR ODU CT IO N 2

2 . HI S TOR Y & DYNA MI C C O MP E TI T IV E F OR C ES -D IA MOND AN ALY SI S O F T H E DANI SH WIND TU R B IN E I NDU S TR Y 3

2 .1 . T HE FAC TOR COND I T ION 3

2 .2 . FIR M S TR A TEGY , S TR U CTU R E AND R I VA LR Y 3

2 .3 . DE MAND COND I T ION 4

2 .4 . R E LA TED A ND SU P P OR T ING INDU STR Y 4

2 .5 . G OV ER NM EN T 4

2 .6 . CHA NC E 4

3 . T HE R EA L E XAMP LE O F T HE FR AM EWOR K: AAR HU S. T HE CLU ST ER . 5

4 . VE STA S: W OR LD’ S # 1 TU R BIN E MANU FA CTU R ER 6

5 . HO W DID T HE AC T OR S I N CLU S T ER CO N TR IBU TE T O T HE INDU STR Y? 7

6 . DIF FER EN CE IN W IND T U R BIN E P AT H B ET WE EN D ENMAR K AND U S A 8

7 . T HE N EW EU R OP EA N P OL ICY: EN ER GY 2 0 2 0 1 0

8 . CON CLU SI ON S AND R E CO MME NDA TI ON S 1 1

9 . BIB LI OGR AP H Y 1 2

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1 . I N T R O D U C T I O N

The document’s main purpose is to clarify and complement the presentation of Professor Mathews 2010-2011, Master Course in International Business, about Denmark’s Wind Clusters.

Therefore, some introductory parts about the Danish land or the global wind industry will be overlooked, in favor of a deeper analysis on the framework applied to the case, the real application of it – the Aarhus cluster- as well as an intensive explanation of the theories and industry analyzing techniques used in this example.

Keeping in mind, that no explanation can come without an informational context, we have introduced the history of the cluster in the explanation of the Dynamic Competitive Forces Framework applied to the Danish Wind Industry cluster.

Following, we will also take a look at United States’ evolution in this industry and how does it compare to Denmark’s, using the “Bricolage vs. Breakthrough” approach from Garud, Raghu, and Peter Karnøe.

We have also dedicated one of the closing points, to the new European policies and how this may affect the cluster evolution in Denmark. We have considered this of special importance, due to the effect of institutions and related official entities to the industry and to its competition. This part is related to a more dynamic analysis of the competitive forces. Overlooked by Porter in his static analysis, it was developed by Mathews as a revision of Porter’s framework, allowing it to acquire a dynamic status, allowing us to comprehend better the evolution of competition.

For graphics, and more introductive data, please refer to the slides attached at the end.

We are not going to analyze why it happens, but also how it happened, where did it start, what conditions took part, how do the theories apply and who are the main actors of this amazing play:

THAT HAS TODAY CREATED, THE BIGGEST WIND INTERLINKED INDUSTRY OF THE WORLD, DESPITE ALL PREDICTIONS.

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2 . H I S T O R Y & D Y N A M I C C O M P E T I T I V E F O R C E S - D I A M O N D A N A L Y S I S O F T H E D A N I S H W I N D T U R B I N E I N D U S T R Y

THE DIAMOND FRAMEWORK AND DYNAMIC COMPETITIVE FORCES FRAMEWORK CAN EFFECTIVELY EXPLAIN THE SUCCESS OF DANISH WIND TURBINE INDUSTRY. THE FOUR MAIN FACTORS, FACTOR CONDITIONS, STRATEGY, STRUCTURE AND RIVALRY, DEMAND AND RELATED INDUSTRIES, ARE ALL INTERDEPENDENT AND TOGETHER FORM A PICTURE OF THE ATTRACTIVENESS OF DANISH WIND TURBINE INDUSTRY. IN ADDITION TO THIS GOVERNMENT AND CHANCE ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL FACTORS IN THE DIAMOND AND THE COMPETITIVENESS OF THE INDUSTRY.

2.1. THE FACTOR CONDITION

This part comprises nature resources, human resources and traditional culture. Natural resource in Denmark is wind --- an abundant “raw material” in Denmark due to the nation’s long shore and thus a requirement for the expansion.

Concerning the human resources, one of the most important factor conditions in Denmark was the old blacksmith industry and tradition of building wind turbines, which started in the late 19th century. It all began as private/individual experiments, some of which were more successful than others. These persons were mostly handicrafts workers and engineers with previous experience from the machine industry. Together researchers and manufacturers consequently utilized their existing capabilities and skills in the building of the wind turbines and the competencies they did not have in-house were accessible from sub-contractors who were on the lookout for new business areas to carry their businesses through the ups and downs of the business cycle.

With reference to the traditional culture, in the old Danish industry, workers were keen on sharing knowledge and skill, hence the culture that persists in today’s wind turbine clusters.1

2.2. FIRM STRATEGY, STRUCTURE AND RIVALRY

Danish wind power industry during the 1970s did not start from scratch, but was built on a solid base of theories and practical know-hows in machinery sector. It leverages the machinery practices to develop the three-blade turbine which works as a standard even today.

The industry adopted a “Learning by doing” approach, without scientific knowledge they used a learning process which continually try and fail and try again to improve the quality of wind turbine. The efficiency of one component supplier grew with the number of units which already produced.

Danish wind turbine industry faced rivalry of alternative energy as fossil fuel, nuclear power so that the R&D never stopped in 20th century.

1 Jens Vestergaard (2004) Industry Formation and State Intervention: The Case of the Wind Turbine Industry in Denmark and the United States. Aarhus School of Business.

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2.3. DEMAND CONDITION

Local demand came from the Danish educated consumers. The 1970s oil embargo, price increases and the political measures had a huge impact on the public’s attitude towards energy and energy consumption, which until then had not been a matter at all. People suddenly became more aware of the environment problem, energy and eco-friendly policies became important subjects and were intensely discussed in the mass media, in the offices as well as in private households in Denmark. Progressively more people were supportive of renewable and non-polluting energy sources and started to unite themselves in organizations and support groups.

2.4. RELATED AND SUPPORTING INDUSTRY

At the end of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s a well-functioning network of subcontractors supplying wings (blades), control systems and gears was established. The Danish wind turbine cluster includes not only the manufactures, components suppliers but also research institutions, such as national laboratory and universities. Test center and users also become a part of the cluster in which they provide input.

2.5. GOVERNMENT

Government played an important role in the development of Danish wind turbine industry. First, it set up the Risø National Laboratory in 1978, which improved the research and testing works. Second, it enacted the policy of energy package and energy plan, which permitted the linking of wind power to the grid and set a base price for the wind power. The plan established a market for wind turbine electricity and focused the market’s attention on the cost efficiency of the turbines. Lacking these subsidies wind turbines as suppliers of energy would not have been competitive compared to the traditional power plants and other energy sources. Finally, its environment policy also supported the development of wind power industry.

2.6. CHANCE

The triumph of Danish wind turbine industry was due to some chances outside. First, two oil embargoes of 1973 and 1979 and the awakening green movement in the Western societies gave a real boost to the Danish wind turbine industry and set the stage for the present era of wind power. Second, California wind rushes during 1980-1986 stimulated the international wind energy industry to develop. In 1982 when an examination of the American market confirmed that a basis for “something big” existed, all of the large wind turbine manufacturers immediately rushed to the other continent and came home with orders in sizes that were not even possible in the small domestic market but which made it possible for the manufacturers to start batch production of wind turbines.

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FIGURE 1 DYNAMIC FORCES FRAMEWORK ADAPTED TO CASE. ADAPTED FROM THEORY IN: MATHEWS, STRATEGIZING, DISEQUILIBRIUM AND PROFITS (STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS, 2006).

3 . T H E R E A L E X A M P L E O F T H E F R A M E W O R K : A A R H U S . T H E C L U S T E R .

“A CLOSER LOOK AT DENMARK’S WIND INDUSTRY REVEALS A LARGE CONCENTRATION OF COMPANIES LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DENMARK BELT FROM AARHUS IN THE EAST TO RINGKØBING AND SKJERN IN THE WEST. “

More than a third of the 175 companies which, according to Denmark’s Central Business Register are directly involved with the production of wind turbines are located in this region. The largest and most globally significant companies reside in the area around Denmark’s second largest city, Aarhus. The Greater Aarhus area and its surrounding municipalities are also home to half of all Danish wind energy companies with five employees or more. Many global companies have located their headquarters or development centers in the Aarhus area. This includes the world’s largest wind turbine manufacturer, Vestas, which will be discussed in the following point (see point 7 of the project).

Aarhus is the leading global knowledge center of wind energy. One of the keys to its success is cross-sector cooperation. Aarhus has benefited enormously from the strong professional and industrial environment in the region within energy and environmental technology. Many of the wind industry suppliers are also suppliers to other energy sectors and major environmental and energy-tech companies in the area. This turns competition to coopetition, allowing the dynamic

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forces of supply and factor conditions to act on the industry and the firms, creating synergies and maximizing the results.

FIGURE 2 AARHUS MAP WITH DESCRIPTION OF THE DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES. SOURCE: HTTP://WWW.AARHUSKOMMUNE.DK (USE BIBLIOGRAPHY TO SEE IN HIGH RES.)

4 . V E S T A S : W O R L D ’ S # 1 T U R B I N E M A N U F A C T U R E R

AS VESTAS IS THE GLOBAL LEADER ON THE WORLD MARKET FOR WIND ENERGY AND BETWEEN THE KEY DRIVERS OF THE DANISH WIND ENERGY CLUSTER.

Vestas was founded in 1898 by H.S. Hansen, a blacksmith, in Denmark. Father and son manufactured steel windows for industrial buildings. In 1945, his son established the company VEstjysk-STålteknik A/S, whose name was shortened to Vestas. In 1979, Vestas delivered the first wind turbines.

Vestas has installed over 39,000 wind turbines in 63 countries on 5 continents. In 2008, Vestas installed a new turbine every three hours worldwide, generating more than 60 million Mwah a year. Being a pioneer in the industry, Vestas now counts with a staff of more than 20,000 people. Vestas reached revenues of EUR 6,035 million with operational margin of 11.1% in 2008 and they got global market share of 19% (5,581 MW). Vestas’ core business comprises the development, manufacture, sale and maintenance of wind turbines.

Their expertise in modern energy covers more than just wind turbines, specializing in planning, installation, operation and maintenance. Their competencies cover everything from site studies to service and maintenance. So we can detect a high degree of vertical integration. At the same

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time, production and sourcing are carried out as close to the market as possible. In 2008, Vestas opened the world’s largest research and development center for wind energy in Aarhus.

5 . H O W D I D T H E A C T O R S I N C L U S T E R C O N T R I B U T E T O T H E I N D U S T R Y ?

SHAPING THE DANISH WIND TURBINE DESIGN WAS AN ACT OF COLLABORATIVE NETWORK CONSISTING OF MANY ACTORS INVOLVED IN WIND TURBINES LIKE DESIGNERS, MANUFACTURERS, SUPPLIERS, INSTITUTIONS, TEST ORGANIZATIONS AND POLICY MAKERS. THE ACTORS IN DENMARK PURSUED A PROCESS THAT DEPLOYED MODEST RESOURCES TO PROGRESSIVELY BUILD UP A VIABLE WIND TURBINE PATH.

FIGURE 3 EXPLICATIVE GRAPHIC OF THE SYSTEM.

In the cluster a sectorial system of innovation played an important role. The firms do not innovate in isolation rather innovations are product of various complementary processes. These complementary processes involve both firms as well as non-firm organizations (such as universities, research centers, government agencies, financial institutions and others). Thus the sectorial system of innovation approach emphasizes actors, networks, knowledge and institutions and the interactions between these elements. For instance, designers and producers become involved based on their beliefs and experiences on the design and production of technological artifacts. Users become involved based on the meanings that they attach to products with respect to their forms, functions and values in use. Evaluators become involved based on their understanding of the tests and standards required to compare and contrast different products. Policy makers enact laws based on their beliefs on the efficacy of specific policy instruments to shape the rate and direction of a technology’s development.

The momentum a technology generates as it accumulates inputs from actors shapes the activities of distributed actors. These inputs are generated through learning and knowledge

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accumulation processes that are activated as actors become involved with an emerging path. From the supply side, producers learn by doing and by experimenting. Through these processes, these actors generate capabilities that are critical for the systematic design, production and distribution of goods and services. Users generate feedback when they use products and services that emerge from the technology. Such learning by using generates knowledge of customers’ emerging preferences. Institutional players generate other kinds of learning. For instance, those in regulatory bodies develop institutional mechanisms and policies to “steer” the technology development process. More proximally, test centers generate inputs by a process of learning by testing. The testing criteria that they codify and the results of comparative tests become valuable community level knowledge.2

6 . D I F F E R E N C E I N W I N D T U R B I N E P A T H B E T W E E N D E N M A R K A N D U S A

We use overall contrasting labels “Bricolage” and “breakthrough” to highlight the differences in the processes associated with actor involvement in the two paths. Bricolage, named used to label the processes of the Danish industry, was characterized by up-and-coming co-shaping. For example, designers and producers progressively scaled up designs all the while incorporating the inputs of the many companies involved. Users offered continual feedback while those in test centers developed evaluation routines that co-evolved with experiences in the field. All the while, policy makers “modulated” the rise of the market to keep the technological path alive.

A diverse logic of disseminated agency appeared in the development of the US wind turbine route. Designers and producers tried to “leap-frog” Denmark with high-tech designs. Researchers at the test center followed a “linear” engineering science based technology-push model as their source for exchanges with industry participants. Regulators passed policies to jump-start the technology, outgrowth the development of a vast market, and then brusquely removed subsidies.

In terms of design and production, there were key differences in the traditions. Companies in the US started with a advanced design, took large steps in design scale-up, and did not engage in much product development in-between stages. In contrast, actors in Denmark started with a low-tech design, took smaller steps in design scale-up, and engaged in product development in-between stages. (Therefore from the figure below we can see there are more scale-ups in Danish wind power.)

2 Garud, R. and P. Karnøe (2003). "Bricolage versus breakthrough: distributed and embedded agency in technology entrepreneurship." Research Policy 32(2): 277-300.

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The firms in Denmark possessed a core group of skilled workers, technicians and a few practical engineers. Such a mix was representative of the “mechanical skill” base that had emerged as a result of a “practical engineer” education typical of the Danish machine industry. These firms began developing wind turbines without an appreciation of the complexities involved. The people involved saw the wind turbine as presenting a set of problems similar to those they had confronted in the construction of agricultural machinery. (The table below shows five typical component firms in Denmark.)

On the other side, experts in the US approached design from an engineering science knowledge base, conceptualizing problems in terms of the formal, academic language of aerodynamics and structural dynamics. The goal of many engineers was to create a design that had drastically changed features compared to existing technology.

FIGURE 4 P., R. GARUD, ET AL. (1997). PATH CREATION AND DEPENDENCE IN THE DANISH WIND TURBINE FIELD.

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7 . T H E N E W E U R O P E A N P O L I C Y : E N E R G Y 2 0 2 0

IN 2007 THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL ADOPTED AMBITIOUS ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE OBJECTIVES FOR 2020; THESE WERE REFERRED TO AS THE "20-20-20" TARGETS.

They can be summarized in three main points, first being to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% compared to 1990 levels (or by 30% if the conditions are right); second being achieving 20% of total energy consumption to be from renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency by 20%; and third: that the 3% of the EU's GDP was to be invested in research and development.

EU2020 seems to have forgotten to attach a feasible strategy to the policy. Of course, due to the momentum’s excitement, nobody seemed to realize the vacant. Recently, studies have shown that the existing strategy is currently unlikely to achieve all the 2020 targets, for general disappointment and global shame.

The main issue, concerning our research, is that –as said by the Dynamic Competitive Forces Framework- what happens in the Institutions, affects the industry. This is proved by the fact that if governments do not get behind the proposal for a European grid (i.e. a new strategy for the current objectives), we will “face an absurd situation in which renewable energy capacity is being built, but no adequate grid exists to deliver the 34% of renewable electricity needed by 2020 to reach the EU’s binding renewable energy targets3”. Consequently, blocking Denmark’s wind cluster growing capacity, since there will be no point in continuing to build stock and turbines, if they cannot be used.

3 Christian Kjaer, EWEA chief executive officer. (2010) http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/eu-says-200bn-needed-energy-grids-2020-news-499806

FIGURE 5 FIVE TYPICAL COMPONENT FIRMS IN DENMARK

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The consequences are far more than serious, since the whole industry interconnection is deeply linked to the demand pull and supply pull innovation and evolution. Thus, we cannot limit our concerns to environmental issues and energy costs, furthermore we need to take into account the impact of such a mistake on the global energy industry, keeping in mind that its value depends on its interconnections and no part of it has value itself. Comprising in union, a mega-web of synergies and linkages, basic to develop leverage, learning and in sum: Growth.

Hence, the European Council has lately come up with a solution, which is still being revised due to its controversial measures. One of which is to make, over the next ten years, energy investments in the order of 1 € trillion. Indeed, 200€ billion are needed to upgrade Europe's gas and electricity grids over the coming decade.

The new Europe 2020 strategy 4will drive major efforts in: Energy market regulation, grid management and the security of energy systems; Technical innovation and investments; Education and incentives for domestic and business consumers to save energy, reduce Wastage and switch to low-carbon technologies and fuels.

8 . C O N C L U S IO N S A N D R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S

Denmark is now the leading center within the field of wind power. However during the recent years a significant change in technology and markets has taken place. Denmark is faced with the challenge to maintain its leading position in spite of growing competition from firms operating in lower cost countries, especially China and India. The wind energy cluster and the political system must assume a proactive position towards this change to ensure that Denmark will strengthen its position as unique value creator.

The industrial environment is built on a foundation which consists of a significant effort in research and education as well as innovative development focused on environmentally sustainability. This field of wind power is influenced by cooperation and knowledge-sharing to find technological development tracks.

The Danish research-environment has a leading position within a number of areas, but great challenges in step with the rapid development of international markets put a lot of pressure of the Danish knowledge center to hold on the talented researchers and students. In order to maintain the unique Danish position, an extraordinary effort must be put in.

The strategic issues are focusing on both, development of the wind power industry by improving wind turbines and effectiveness of wind power, and the improvement of the knowledge center regarding research and education.

Creating one strategy for the whole value chain with sub-strategies for each of the dimensions of the industry would strengthen the integration and the competitiveness of the wind power industry. This could be provided through common guidelines for the frames of cooperation. Following these recommendations, Denmark will be prepared to face the current challenges.

4 ENERGY 2020: A strategy for competitive, sustainable and secure energy. Citizens’ Summary. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/strategies/2010/doc/2010_11_10_energy_2020_citizens_summary.pdf

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