How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias...

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1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August 21, 2015 – Dublin Keynote Lecture Ruud de Mooij Views are authors’ alone, and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Boards, or its management

Transcript of How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias...

Page 1: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

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How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt

in the Global Economy?

IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy”

August 21, 2015 – Dublin

Keynote Lecture

Ruud de Mooij

Views are authors’ alone, and should not be attributed

to the IMF, its Executive Boards, or its management

Page 2: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

The Plan

Taxes and debt – The issue(s)

Should we care? – Welfare costs

Stability concerns – The real issue?

Tax bias & financial sector – Real costs?

Lessons from recent reforms; looking forward

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Page 3: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

The Issue…

“Companies are taxed heavily for making investments with equity; yet the tax

code actually pays companies to invest using leverage”

(Barack Obama, 2011)

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In fact, two distinct issues

Debt Bias – firms being too highly leveraged due

to tax

Debt Shifting – location of a firms’ debt being

affected by tax differentials

With quite different welfare implications

With possible interactions 4

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(1) Debt Bias …

Corporate level Personal level

Debt Deductible for CIT Exempt, or taxable at PIT

Equity Not deductible for CIT Exempt, or taxable at PIT - Dividend Tax - Cap Gains Tax

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… can be (very) large

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Marginal Effective Tax Rate on Investment under alternative sources of finance

Source: ZEW (2012)

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(2) Multinational Debt Shifting …

Parent (home)

Subsidiary (host)

Debt Interest taxable at home-country CIT

Interest deductible (perhaps subject to WHT)

Equity Dividend exempt (in most advanced countries)

Profit taxable at host-country CIT (and perhaps WHT)

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Page 8: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

… remains a relevant concern

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Source: FAD Tax Database

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Popular topic in public finance …

Meta studies find nearly 50 empirical studies

Providing broad support for both bias and shifting

Average (‘consensus’) impact coefficient ≈ 0.3 – i.e.

10 pp higher CIT rate raises debt-asset ratio by 3 pp

E.g. US corporate debt ratio could be 12 pt higher

due to bias; in France 10 pt higher

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Page 10: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

Should we care?

“It is a historical accident that interest is deductible from corporate tax”

(Financial Times, 2010)

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Page 11: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

What’s the distortion like?

Modigliani-Miller – 1958 & 1963 1958 – firm value independent of debt ratio – no optimal ratio

1963 (correction article) – tax matters arbitrage

Imperfect financial markets – debt has real implications Agency theories show debt has non-tax …

… benefits: cheaper; incentive effects; signaling value

… costs: bankruptcy, excess risk taking

Page 12: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

Welfare costs seem small

Unique privately optimal debt ratio absent tax bias Assume this ratio is also socially efficient

Debt bias causes DWL – real agency / bankruptcy costs E.g. excess risk premiums that companies must pay

Estimates of DWL Weichenrieder-Klautke (2008) – DWL GER ≈ 0.15 pct GDP

Sørensen (2014) – DWL in NOR ≈ 2.5 pct CIT (0.1 pct GDP)

Gordon (2010) – DWL in US < 1 pct CIT

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… although could be larger

Overborrowing

Dilution (Tirole)

Signaling good health (Meza-Webb)

Underborrowing

Debt as a signal of bad health – Gordon

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Or distortions in contract terms?

Debt …

… yields fixed return

… has limited maturity

… has prior claim

… no voting right

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Equity …

… yields variable return

… has unlimited maturity

… has residual claim

… gives voting right

Hybrids …

… convertible debt; preference shares; etc.

… no dichotomy debt/equity

… distortions occur at the margin of contract terms

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Debt maturity distortions

Small literature on tax and debt maturity

Parallel with MM - irrelevance & relevance

theorems (Stiglitz ‘74) – externalities

Theory ambiguous on impact of tax

Some empirics pointing to both directions

Relevant in light of stability concerns (later)

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What about debt shifting?

Assume a wholly-owned subsidiary – parent debt …

… yields fixed returns, but parent also gets variable returns

… implies prior claim, but parent gets all residual claims

… parent has all voting rights

Does intracompany debt have implications for the MNC

group’s value?

Welfare effect of debt shifting might be much smaller

Raises question why governments allow MNCs to choose

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Macro Stability Concerns

“In a crisis, equity bends while debt breaks”

(The Economist, 2015)

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High corporate debt threatens stability

Imperfect capital markets: shock may cause solvent companies to default if debt ratio higher / shorter

Liquidity – rollover risk, debt overhang

Spread via networks - Acemoglu, Kiyotaki-Moore

Are corporate debt levels too high?

E.g. externalities from default

Possible contagion to banks

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Empirics that corporate leverage matters

Firms with high leverage (and short maturity) … … lay off more employees during recessions (Giroud cs)

… reduce investment more (Almeida cs)

Aggregate corporate debt … … magnifies the deepness of a recession (Jorda cs)

Special concern about financial sector, as … … sector gets too big (see BIS, IMF, OECD)

… high leverage particularly worrisome

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Debt bias in the financial sector

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Page 22: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

Financial sector is special

Externalities from excess leverage (contagion, TBTF)

Scope for Pigovian bank levies

Special concern of debt bias

Keen & De Mooij (2015): Same tax incentives, but banks …

… face regulatory capital requirement – yet generally also

hold buffers above that (with room for tax bias)

… have ample access to hybrids

… enjoy special insurance – TBTF, Deposit Insurance

Page 23: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

Taxes do matter for banks

Average long-run effect similar as non-financial

Hybrids non-responsive

Only banks with a capital buffer respond

Large banks possibly less responsive

Short-run Long-run

All Banks

Debt .14** .25**

Hybrids -.001 -.003

Banks differentiated by capital

Abundant .14** .25**

Tight -.01 -.03

Banks differentiated by size

> Median .11** .18**

> Q90 .04 .28

Source: Keen & De Mooij (2015)

Page 24: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

Largest banks – biggest concern

Source: De Mooij, Keen and Orihara (2014)

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Many more questions, e.g.

On the interaction with regulation

Shift to shadow banking

International spillovers

MNC bank choice of subsidiary vs branch

Effects on asset side risks

KM still find sign. effect on risk-weighted buffer

Page 26: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

Lessons from policy reforms

“They are a man-made distortion and they need to be fixed”

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Page 27: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

Restricting interest deductibility

Denying deductibility of certain types of interest

Group-wide allocation; Fixed ratio

> 60 countries have such rules in place

Action 4 of BEPS agenda

Empirics: significant effects on debt ratios (typically for affiliates)

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Yet, don’t generally address debt bias

2/3 of rules for intra-company debt only

Focus is on debt shifting, not debt bias

Mostly not for financial sector

Where stability risks seem largest

Usually high threshold on interest

Only largest companies targeted

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Deeper issues underexplored …

Welfare effects – Sørensen (2014) Trade off lower DWL of debt bias with higher DWL from distortion in investment

Uniform cap might cause own distortions Firms are heterogeneous (collateral, diversification)

Discrimination against low-income firms Could it magnifying stability risk?

Page 30: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

ACE – the love baby in public finance

ACE: adds deduction for normal equity return

Revenue cost – BEL (> 30%); ITA (< 3% CIT)

Static estimates overstate true revenue loss

Now cheaper

Debt ratios – strong empirical support (ITA; BEL)

Investment – scarce and inconclusive (BEL)

Design matters (ITA, BEL, TUR, …) (Zangari, 2014)

More evaluations needed

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Bank levies

Pigovian principle cf. IMF 2010 report

11 EU countries + some non-EU – vary by design

Devereux-Johannesen-Vella (2014)

Reduced leverage; yet more risky assets

New EU levy part of BRR Directive 2014

Compulsory for MS – varies by asset-side risk

Page 32: How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? · 1 How Costly is the Tax Bias Toward Debt in the Global Economy? IIPF Congress “Taxation in a Global Economy” August

Looking forward

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