How Competitive is the Match? - nrmp. · PDF fileReproduction prohibited without the written...

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    Mona M. SignerPresident and CEONovember 13, 2016

    How Competitive is the Match?

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    Main Residency MatchPGY-1 Positions Offered and Filled

    6,015 More Positions Since 2007

    05,000

    10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Offered Filled Filled US Seniors

    + 567 PGY-1 positions over 2015

    All In Policy

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    Active Applicants162 More Seniors, 571 More Active Applicants

    7,532 More Applicants Since 2007

    05,000

    10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Others DOs IMGs US IMGs Prior US Grads US Seniors

    All In Policy

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    2,856

    158

    1,5221,260

    589

    -63

    -1,000

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    US Senior US Grad USIMG DO IMG Other

    PGY-1 Matches by Applicant TypeChange Since 2007

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    PGY-1 Match Rates by Applicant TypeOverall 2016 Match Rate: 75.6%

    0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

    100%

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    US Seniors

    Osteopathic Physicians

    US IMGs

    Prior US GradsIMGs

    All In Policy

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    Average Length of U.S. Seniors ROLsMatched and Unmatched Applicants

    5.62

    7.11

    8.9

    11.97

    02468

    10121416

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Unmatched Matched

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    7175 76 77 79

    85

    89 89 8991 91 93

    96 96 96 96 96 97 97 9899

    77

    89

    77 75 76

    83

    91 89

    71

    9194

    9197

    9097 94

    88

    98 96 95 98

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    2014 2016

    Match Rates By Preferred SpecialtyMost Seniors Match!

    Source: Charting Outcomes in the Match

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    Unmatched Seniors, PGY-1 Positions in SOAP

    More Unmatched Seniors than PGY-1 Positions = 4 Years

    1,130

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    975PGY-1 Positions in SOAP

    U.S. Seniors With ROLs Unmatched to PGY-1

    Positions

    1,331

    1,005

    SOAP

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    Preferences of Unmatched Seniors Available SOAP Positions

    33556799999141516222428

    4851

    9371

    7383

    102116

    169

    0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

    OtherChild Neurology

    Thoracic SurgeryTransitional Year

    Radiation OncologyRadiology-Diagnostic

    Vascular SurgerySurgery-Preliminary (PGY-1 Only)

    PathologyInternal Medicine-Pediatrics

    Internal Medicine (PGY-1 Only)Physical Medicine & Rehab

    AnesthesiologyNeurology

    Plastic SurgeryDermatology

    OtolaryngologyPediatrics

    Neurological SurgeryInternal Medicine (C & M)

    Obstetrics-GynecologyFamily Medicine

    PsychiatryEmergency Medicine

    General SurgeryOrthopaedic Surgery

    Available PositionsPreferred Specialty

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    SOAP PositionsAccepted by Applicant & Position Type

    31 2 3 10 2

    387

    13 4555 43

    192

    2038

    6827

    30

    12

    00

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    US Seniors US Grads USIMGs DOs IMGs

    None Accepted PGY-1 Only PGY-2 Only Categorical PGY-1 & PGY-2

    2,199

    4,020 817 5,871995

    989 applicants accepted 1,022 positions

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    U.S. Allopathic Seniors in SOAP2012 - 2016

    1,816

    605 600

    337

    2,076

    595 602 591

    2,050

    609 623

    506

    2,142

    653 645 606

    2,199

    665 666 615

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    SOAP Eligible Offers Accepted Unique Applicants With AnyOffers

    No Position Post-SOAP*

    SOAP 2012 SOAP 2013 SOAP 2014 SOAP 2015 SOAP 2016*Presentations before 2015 included only seniors with a certified ROL who did not have any position at the conclusion of SOAP, regardless of whether they participated in SOAP. This presentation includes all SOAP-participating seniors who did not have any position at the conclusion of SOAP.

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    Getting the Interview

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    Applications, Interviews, Ranks

    0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

    Vascular SurgeryChild Neurology

    Thoracic SurgeryRadiation Oncology

    Plastic SurgeryNeurological Surgery

    Internal Medicine/PediatricsOtolaryngology

    Physical Medicine and RehabilitationPathology-Anatomic and Clinical

    Radiology-DiagnosticDermatology

    Obstetrics and GynecologyNeurology

    Orthopaedic SurgeryAnesthesiology

    General SurgeryEmergency Medicine

    Average for All SpecialtiesPsychiatryPediatrics

    Family MedicineInternal Medicine Categorical

    Applications Interview Invitations Applicants RankedSource: NRMP Program Director Survey

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    Average Percentage Applications Rejected

    26%

    32%

    33%

    25%

    29%

    37%

    43%

    32%

    39%

    49%

    49%

    44%

    43%

    48%

    52%

    50%

    53%

    51%

    53%

    54%

    61%

    60%

    66%

    26%

    27%

    29%

    31%

    33%

    36%

    39%

    40%

    41%

    45%

    46%

    47%

    48%

    48%

    49%

    51%

    52%

    56%

    58%

    61%

    61%

    62%

    68%

    0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

    Radiation OncologyVascular Surgery

    Plastic SurgeryOtolaryngology

    DermatologyThoracic Surgery

    Radiology-DiagnosticNeurological SurgeryEmergency Medicine

    Physical Medicine and RehabilitationOrthopaedic Surgery

    AnesthesiologyInternal Medicine/Pediatrics

    NeurologyChild Neurology

    Average for all specialtiesObstetrics and Gynecology

    Pathology-Anatomic and ClinicalPediatricsPsychiatry

    Internal Medicine CategoricalGeneral SurgeryFamily Medicine

    2014 2016

    Source: NRMP Program Director Survey

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    Percentage of Programs Citing Each Factor in Interview Selection

    40%54%54%

    56%58%58%59%

    61%61%62%

    64%66%66%

    70%70%70%70%71%71%

    78%79%

    83%84%

    88%93%

    34%54%

    61%48%

    69%70%

    56%57%

    61%57%

    56%63%63%

    65%65%

    61%

    69%69%

    78%70%

    80%84%

    86%94%

    0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

    Applicant flagged with Match violation by NRMPVolunteer/extracurricular experiences

    Awards/honors in clerkship in desired specialtyGraduate of highly-regarded U.S. medical school

    Awards or special honors in clinical clerkshipsLack of gaps in medical education

    Other life experiencePerceived interest in program

    Alpha Omega Alpha (AOA) membershipPassing USMLE Step 2 CS/COMLEX Level 2 PE

    Consistency of gradesAudition elective/rotation within your department

    Leadership qualitiesPersonal prior knowledge of the applicant

    Evidence of professionalism and ethicsGrades in clerkship in desired specialty

    Any failed attempt in USMLE/COMLEXPerceived commitment to specialty

    Class ranking/quartilePersonal Statement

    Grades in required clerkshipsUSMLE Step 2 CK/COMLEX Level 2 CE score

    Medical Student Performance EvaluationLetters of recommendation in the specialty

    USMLE Step 1/COMLEX Level 1 score

    2014 2016Source: NRMP Program Director Survey

    Source: NRMP Program Director Survey

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    Programs Use of the MSPEin Interview Selection

    63%

    70%

    71%

    73%

    73%

    78%

    79%

    80%

    81%

    83%

    84%

    84%

    86%

    88%

    88%

    90%

    90%

    91%

    91%

    92%

    93%

    93%

    97%

    62%

    74%

    70%

    79%

    81%

    79%

    91%

    80%

    76%

    83%

    87%

    84%

    87%

    83%

    85%

    88%

    90%

    91%

    83%

    94%

    74%

    86%

    95%

    0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

    Plastic SurgeryOtolaryngology

    Vascular SurgeryOrthopaedic SurgeryNeurological Surgery

    General SurgeryEmergency Medicine

    Family MedicineObstetrics and Gynecology

    Thoracic SurgeryPediatrics

    Average for all specialtiesAnesthesiology

    Pathology-Anatomic and ClinicalNeurology

    Physical Medicine and RehabilitationInternal Medicine Categorical

    Radiology-DiagnosticDermatology

    PsychiatryInternal Medicine/Pediatrics

    Radiation OncologyChild Neurology

    2014 2016Source: NRMP Program Director Survey

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    Scores Required?

    31

    68