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How Can We Implement Interdisciplinary Earth System Science on the Third Pole? Greg Greenwood Executive Director, Mountain Research Initiative University of Bern, Switzerland green@giub.unibe.ch Mountain Research Initiative Slide 2 What is MRI? http://mri.scnatweb.ch Origins in IGBP/IHDP Endorsements: MAB, GTOS, GLOBAL LAND PROJECT of the ESSP Supported by Swiss NSF as expression of Swiss foreign and scientific policy Offices at University of Bern and University of Lausanne Slide 3 Outline The Conceptual Framework of the Global Land Project Applying the GLP Framework to the Third Pole Environment Project of CAS Guidance Provided by the GLP Framework for Implementation How Geographic Information Systems Could Support a TP-wide Coupled Human-Earth System Project Different Scientific Traditions and Their Interlocked Perspectives Slide 4 Funded under EU Framework Programme 6 November 2003 to October 2005 (2 years) Consortium: 13 European, 1 Indian partner Scientific project management: MRI Coordination Office: University of Vienna glochamore facts Slide 5 1.Climate 2.Land Use Change 3.Cyrosphere 4.Hydrologic Systems 5.Ecosystem Function 6.Biodiversity and Ecosystem Structure 7.Hazards 8.Pests and Diseases 9.Economies 10.Institutions glochamore research strategy - Main Headings Disciplines are important in academia, but the reality on the ground is a COUPLED HUMAN-EARTH SYSTEM Slide 6 A core project of IGBP and IHDP Part of the Earth System Science Partnership http://www.globallandproject.org/ Sustainability The goal of GLP is therefore: to measure, model and understand the coupled human-environmental system. This goal is part of broader efforts to understand changes in the interaction between people and their environments, and the ways these have affected, and may yet affect, the sustainability of the Earth System. Changes in coupled human- environmental systems affect the cycling of energy, water, elements and biota at the global level, and global-level changes in political economy, such as international treaties and market liberalization, affect decisions about resources at local and regional levels. GLP Science Plan 2005 Slide 7 http://www.globallandproject.org/ Slide 8 Theme 1: Dynamics of Land Systems 1.1: How Do Globalisation and Population Change Affect Regional and Local Land Use Decisions and Practices? Slide 9 1.2: How Do Changes in Land Management Decisions and Practices Affect Biogeochemistry, Biodiversity, Biophysical Properties and Disturbance Regimes of Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosytems? Theme 1: Dynamics of Land Systems Slide 10 1.3: How Do the Atmospheric, Biogeochemical and Biophysical Dimensions of Global Change Affect Ecosystem Structure and Function? Theme 1: Dynamics of Land Systems Slide 11 2.1: What are the Critical Feedbacks to the Coupled Earth System from Ecosystem Changes? Theme 2: Consequences of Land System Change Slide 12 2.2: How Do Changes in Ecosystem Structure and Functioning Affect the Delivery of Ecosystem Services? Theme 2: Consequences of Land System Change Slide 13 2.3: How are Ecosystem Services Linked to Human Well-being? Theme 2: Consequences of Land System Change Slide 14 2.4: How Do People Respond at Various Scales and in Different Contexts to Changes in Ecosystem Service Provision? Theme 2: Consequences of Land System Change Slide 15 Human-Environment Interaction Theme 2: Consequences of Land System Change Slide 16 Time 1 Theme 3: Integrating Analysis and Modelling for Land Sustainability Time 2 How the System Evolves over Time Slide 17 Time 1 Theme 3: Integrating Analysis and Modelling for Land Sustainability Time 2i 3.1 What are the Critical Pathways of Change in Land Systems? Time 2j ? path dependency: do certain trajectories eliminate options? Slide 18 Theme 3: Integrating Analysis and Modelling for Land Sustainability 3.2: How Do the Vulnerability and Resilience of Land Systems to Hazards and Disturbances Vary in Response to Changes in HumanEnvironment Interactions? Time Shock (1.1,1.3) Recovery Bigger/Different Shock Human-Environment Interaction (2.2,2.3,2.4,1.2) ? Transition to New State Recovery Slide 19 Theme 3: Integrating Analysis and Modelling for Land Sustainability 3.3: Which Institutions Enhance Decision Making and Governance for the Sustainability of Land Systems? Time Slide 20 How can we adapt the GLP approach to the Third Pole? Slide 21 Past Question 1: What environmental and ecological changes have occurred on different time scales in the past, and how are these changes driven? Now Slide 22 Social Systems Population Social/Economic structure Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Technology Ecological Systems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Water Air Soil Land Use & Management T1.1 T1.3 T1.2 T2.1 T2.2 T2.3 T2.4 T3.1 Critical pathways of change T3.2 Vulnerability and resilience of land systems T3.3 Effective governance for sustainability Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings TPE Science questions have forced further specification within all major parts of the the general GLP figure Slide 23 Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Pollution Livelihood Groups Question 2: What are the characteristics of water and energy cycles, what are their main components, and what is their relationship to the Indian monsoon and westerlies? Flowing & Standing Water Circulation, forcings Cryosphere Slide 24 Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings Question 3: How will ecosystems change under global warming, especially at high elevations? Slide 25 Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings Question 4. What is the status of glaciers on the Third Pole, and how will glacial retreat and mass balance changes affect the water and energy cycle and its components? What are their environmental impacts? Slide 26 Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings Question 5. What is the impact of anthropogenic output? Slide 27 Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings Question 6. What is the most appropriate way to adapt to current environmental changes in the Third Pole region? Slide 28 Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings Question 6a. What are the environmental changes (as they affect people=services and hazards)? Slide 29 Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings Question 6b. What livelihood groups exist on the Third Pole? What is their development trajectory? Slide 30 Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings Question 6c. What are the vulnerability pathways (i.e. how environmental changes impact the well-being of different livelihood groups)? Slide 31 Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings Question 6d. What are the options for addressing vulnerability? What are the trade-offs (economic, social and culture) associated with these options? Slide 32 Whats missing? Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings T3.1 Critical pathways of change T3.2 Vulnerability and resilience of land systems T3.3 Effective governance for sustainability -- Agency, and System Evolution Slide 33 How does one actually implement this? Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings Slide 34 Putting names to fluxes... Charles J. Vrsmarty 2006 Slide 35 Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Circulation, forcings Whose names go in the boxes? Earth System Drivers: Prof. ?? Ecosystem Conditions: Prof. ?? Ecosystem Services: Prof. ?? Feedbacks to Earth System Resource Benefits: Prof. ?? Current Resource Use: Prof. ?? Impacts of use Nature of the Social System Decision Making Processes: Prof. ?? A human resources project.. Slide 36 at what scale ? from M. Menenti 2010 Slide 37 We could do this at range or basin scale..who does what where? from M. Menenti 2010 Sanjiangyuan Hengduan Chang Tang Yarlung Kosi Karakorum Ladakh Kun Lun Pamir Tian Shan Slide 38 OR could we do this...over the entire Third Pole? from M. Menenti 2010 GIS as a data management and modeling element (GLP and GIS as two ways of addressing the same object.) Slide 39 GLP scheme as a spatial model with coverages as inputs and as modeled outputs. Atmospheric deposition is part of the Earth System impinging on the Land System. Land use is a central characteristic of Land Use & Management Hydrologic processes fall within Ecological Systems courtesy USGS: http://nh.water.usgs.gov/projects/sparrow/input.htm Slide 40 What kinds of data layers and models does GLP suggest? Meteorological and climatic forcings: precip, temp, radiation WATER Hydrology:e.g., soil water (measured), stream discharge (modeled) Downstream Slide 41 Predicting Discharge from Third Pole: CEOP- AEGIS (Immerzeel et al. 2010 Science) from M. Menenti 2010 N.B. River Basin Scale: whose water?? Slide 42 characteristics of the ecological system earth system driversmodeled aspects of the ecological system and precursors of ecosystem services DUrso 2010 Slide 43 Example of forcing data Slide 44 DUrso 2010 Example of output data Slide 45 DUrso 2010 Example of predicted precursor of an ecosystem service Slide 46 What kinds of data layers does GLP suggest re: local ecosystem services? Vegetation vegetation important for E/T but also for biodiversity, for carbon sequestration, for NTFP, for forage, wood... life form biomass composition Slide 47 Example of vegetation data Ni 2000 Slide 48 What kinds of data layers does GLP suggest? Vegetation Land use Slide 49 Wang et al. 2008 Example of 1:100000 land use data Slide 50 It appears that the coupled human-earth system could be expressed in GIS --> two questions.. Vegetation Land use Meteorological and climatic forcings: precip, temp, radiation Hydrology: soil water, stream discharge Slide 51 Vegetation Land use Meteorological and climatic forcings: precip, temp, radiation Hydrology: soil water, stream discharge Do we have these data over the entire Third Pole? Slide 52 What kinds of data layers does GLP suggest? Culture? Globalization? Land use decision making? Slide 53 Very different production systems even within China ?? Miller and Schaller 1996 Ryavec and Heregin 1998 Salick, Yan and Amend 2005 Slide 54 Pastoral systems: range types and herd composition are important factors Miller 1999 Slide 55 Sedentary Central Tibet: production systems can be classified by core and periphery with very different resource endowments Ryavac and Heregin 1998 Slide 56 Humid Western Sichuan: production systems can be differentiated by elevation and road access. Salick, Yang and Amend 2005 Slide 57 Different socio-economic systems co-exist on the Third Pole Vegetation Land use Meteorological and climatic forcings: precip, temp, radiation Hydrology: soil water, stream discharge Pastoral Cropping Gathering Slide 58 Urban systems - local and distant - and how they influence land systems... Slide 59 Ostrom 2010 Understanding both ecological and social systems may each require use of models that exist in something other than geographic space... DUrso 2010 RESOURCE USE GOODS & SERVICES but we should aim at forcing those models to quantify the central links between the social and the ecological: resource use, and provision on ecosystem goods and services. Slide 60 Encroachment Emission s Extraction CS MS Human Activities Natural Systems Focus: Energy & Material Flows Different scientific traditions have different modelling perspectives: e.g. Biophysical Systems View From: John Robinson UBC IHDP OM, Bonn, 2005 Slide 61 Databases Policies Models/Analysi s Agencies All Other Influences Focus: Information Flows versus an Actor System View (Political Science) From: John Robinson UBC IHDP OM, Bonn Slide 62 Mutual Interpenetration Biophysical Systems View Actor System View CS Databases CS Databases From: John Robinson UBC IHDP OM, Bonn To operate effectively within the coupled human-earth system we need to understand both. Slide 63 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!