How can Asia Pacific guarantee a sustainable growth ... · 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029...
Transcript of How can Asia Pacific guarantee a sustainable growth ... · 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029...
Securing the Future of
Asia-Pacific aviation
Vinoop Goel
Singapore 2018
How can Asia Pacific guarantee a sustainable growth?
Pax and freight volumes are showing robust growth…
Source: IATA 4
14.5
15.5
16.5
17.5
18.5
19.5
20.5
21.5
440
490
540
590
640
690
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RPKs, seasonally adjusted
FTKs, seasonally adjusted
Billions per month Billions per month
…and load factors have risen for pax and freight
Source: IATA 5
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Passenger load factor, seasonally adjusted
Freight load factor, seasonally adjusted
% of ASKs % of AFTKs
Oil prices are expected to ease somewhat
Source: EIA 6
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Brent oil prices (US dollars per barrel)
Actual oil prices
Oil futures curve at mid-Jan 2018
But low oil prices aren’t all good news…
7Source: Blackrock, EIA, IMF
Revenue impact of a $50 fall in oil prices
A pivotal moment approaches…
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics 9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
20
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% of global O-D passengers
Within advanced markets
Within developing markets
Between advanced and developing markets
Demand for air travel to double over the next 20 years
10Source: IATA/Tourism Economics
6.7bn
3.3bn
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
Global passengers (billion, O-D basis)
Constant policies scenario
Policy stimulus and market liberalization
A Pick-up in Protectionism
Rise of Asian domestic markets
Source: IATA using data from TE/IATA Air Passenger Forecasts, September 2016
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2
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9
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2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Top domestic passenger markets, ranked by passenger numbers
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2015
US
China
Japan
Indonesia
Brazil
India
Australia
Russia
Turkey
Canada
0
2
4
6
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10
12 China
US
India
Indonesia
Brazil
Japan
Australia
Turkey
Philippines
Mexico
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20-year passenger growth outlook (2016-36)
14Source: IATA/Tourism Economics
North America
452m2.3%
Europe
550m2.3%
Asia Pacific
2,066m4.6%Africa
274m5.9%
Latin America
421m4.2%
Middle East
322m5.0%
Jet aircraft deliveries made & scheduled
16Source: Ascend
456520
403
134
159
179
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2016 2017 2018
Narrowbody Widebody
# deliveries made & due
Aircraft deliveries to the Asia Pacific (1Q18 data)
Runway and passenger
terminal capacity
assessment for airports with
more than 20 million
passengers per year
100 Biggest Airports: many need to expand
Infrastructure investment already critical in Asia
52% already need
terminal capacity,
69% will need more
runways by 2030
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Regulatory Harmonization across Asia
Diverse regulatory maturity
Lack of unified pan-Asia political
structure
Conservative government
controls
Seamless ATMPilot Licensing
Visa policiesOperating standards
Audits
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Asia-Pacific Regional Priorities
Safety and Security
Environment
Capacity
Cost-Efficiency
Regulatory Harmonization
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Addressing the capacity and experience challenge
Technology
Industry standards
Border Control – visa and immigration
Smart Security
Airline-Airport-Government collaboration
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