Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.library.corporate-ir.net/library/62/624/62422/items/220682/UBS... ·...

33
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. UBS Building and Building Products CEO Conference November 8, 2006

Transcript of Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.library.corporate-ir.net/library/62/624/62422/items/220682/UBS... ·...

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Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.UBS Building and Building Products CEO ConferenceNovember 8, 2006

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Note: All statements in this Presentation that are not historical facts should be considered as "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Act of 1995. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to, (1) changes in general and local economic and business conditions, (2) weather conditions, (3) changes in market conditions, (4) changes in home prices and sales activity in the markets where the Company builds homes, (5) government regulation, including regulations concerning development of land, the homebuilding process and the environment, (6) fluctuations in interest rates and the availability of mortgage financing, (7) shortages in and price fluctuations of raw materials and labor, (8) the availability and cost of suitable land and improved lots, (9) levels of competition, (10) availability of financing to the Company, (11) utility shortages and outages or rate fluctuations, (12) geopolitical risks, terrorist acts and other acts of war and (13) other factors described in detail in the Company's Form 10-K for the year ended October 31, 2005. All forward-looking statements involving earnings guidance or other financial or operating projections or estimates contained herein were initially provided on November 7, 2006 and have not been updated for this presentation. The risk that actual results will differ materially from expectations expressed in this presentation will increase with the passage of time.Where we have used non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measure are provided, along with a disclosure on the usefulness of the GAAP measure, in our most recent earnings release.

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Hovnanian Enterprises Background

7th largest homebuilder in the U.S.Founded by Kevork Hovnanian in 1959FORBES Platinum 400 Company, fifth consecutive year (#7 based on five-year annualized total return)2006 FORTUNE 500, #403, ranked 2nd based on five-year total return to investors of 60%

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Strong PerformanceDeliveries - Homes

6,791

9,51411,531

14,58616,274

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Total Revenues

$1.7$2.6

$3.2$4.2

$5.3

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05

EPS

$1.15$2.14

$3.93

$5.35

$7.16

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Total Stockholders' Equity

$0.4$0.6

$0.8

$1.2

$1.8

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05

$ in Billions

$ in BillionsFully Diluted

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Current Housing Slowdown

Investor Concerns:What caused the slowdown?How bad will it get – sales, margins, earnings?What is Hovnanian doing differently under these conditions?When will it bottom out?Where do we go from here?

October 28, 2002

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Markets Are Dramatically Slower

Sales pace has slowed in most markets Prices have effectively declined in many communities through use of concessions and incentivesMain Reason: Investors were active buyers in many of these markets

Now they are not buying: reducing demand And listing earlier purchases for resale: increasing supply

Buyer psychology has also shifted – postponing buying decision and waiting on the sidelinesBut NO economic slowdown similar to all prior housing downturnsMarkets without significant investor activity holding up better

TexasNorth Carolina

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Concessions and Incentives

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Investor Share of Mortgage Originations

Source: LoanPerformance, a Subsidiary of First American RES (3Q2005)

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MSAs with Highest Investor and 2nd Home ShareMSAs with 34-41% 2nd home and investor share

West Palm Beach*Las Vegas*Monterey

Orlando*Tampa-St. Petersburg*

MSAs with 28-33% 2nd home and investor shareSan Francisco*

MiamiTucson

Honolulu*

San AntonioJacksonville*

Austin

Source: LoanPerformance (a Subsidiary of First American RES)-percent of conventional, conforming purchase-money originations as of Q1 2005 (at least 500 loans per MSA).*MSAs with second home shares larger than investor shares are shown in green.

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Inventories for Sale are Rising

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

Jul-8

2M

ay-8

3M

ar-8

4Ja

n-85

Nov

-85

Sep

-86

Jul-8

7M

ay-8

8M

ar-8

9Ja

n-90

Nov

-90

Sep

-91

Jul-9

2M

ay-9

3M

ar-9

4Ja

n-95

Nov

-95

Sep

-96

Jul-9

7M

ay-9

8M

ar-9

9Ja

n-00

Nov

-00

Sep

-01

Jul-0

2M

ay-0

3M

ar-0

4Ja

n-05

Nov

-05

Sep

-06

Existing New

Months Supply of Homes for Sale

Existing Homes

New Homes

Source: National Association of Realtors, Bureau of Census

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Third Quarter Net Contracts Third Quarter Net Contracts

(# Homes)

Excluding unconsolidated joint ventures.

$0.7

$1.0

$1.2$1.1

$0.4

$1.4

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

($ in Billions)

1,648

2,549

3,484

4,102

3,349

4,143

0

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

4,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

- 19% - 24%

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Third Quarter Net Contracts Per CommunityThird Quarter Net Contracts Per Community

Excluding unconsolidated joint ventures.

7.7

12.814.414.2

12.8

9.0

12.612.512.3

9.4

0

4

8

12

16

20

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

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Cancellation RatesCancellation Rates

23%

18%21%

25%23%

19% 20%24%

27%

21%24% 25%

30%32% 33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Q103

Q203

Q303

Q403

Q104

Q204

Q304

Q404

Q105

Q205

Q305

Q405

Q106

Q206

Q306

Excluding unconsolidated joint ventures.

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Managing under assumption of long term slow conditions

Right pricing…

-- to achieve reasonable balance of absorption and margin

Renegotiating with subcontractors

Reducing our overheads

Reevaluating and renegotiating land options

Still buying some new land – very disciplined approach

What is Hovnanian doing?What is Hovnanian doing?

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Land Renegotiation StrategiesLand Renegotiation Strategies

Many of our communities still generate healthy returnsHowever, those contracted in certain markets in late 2004 – early 2006 are return-challenged68% of our land controlled via options; 8.9% average deposit (at 7/31)We are renegotiating those “challenged” option contracts to obtain lower lot prices and/or delayed takedownsIf unsuccessful, we are walking away from certain options

Write-off of $11.4 million in third quarter; significantly more anticipated in Q4

While painful, we can now re-deploy the balance of our capital on these options at far better returns; (average > 90% of invested capital)Significant economic advantage over building-out owned communities at very low returns or losses in future years

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Preliminary Estimates - Fiscal 2006Preliminary Estimates - Fiscal 2006Preliminary

EstimatePreliminary

EstimateQ4 2006 FY 2006

($ milions except per share)Net Contracts (Homes) Excluding Joint Ventures 10,661 3,100 13,761

Total Deliveries (Homes) Including Joint Ventures 14,718 5,490 20,208

Pretax Income Before Impairments and Write-offs $440 $95 - $135 $535 - $575

Pretax Impairments and Write-offs $21 ≈$300 ≈$320

Net Income Available to Commmon Stockholders $257 ($106) - ($131) $126 - $151

EPS $3.95 ($1.62) - ($2.01) $1.94 - $2.33

Ended July 31, 2006

Actual 9 mos. Results

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Staying focused on long-term strategies:

Market diversity and dominance

Product diversity

Training and development of our people

Customer satisfaction

Efficient processes

What is Hovnanian doing?What is Hovnanian doing?

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Market Diversity and DominanceMarket Diversity and Dominance

#12,500 homes

#32,000 homes

#2 1,300 homes

#61,800 homes

Top 53,100 homes

#151,000 homes

#71,400 homes

Top 5

700 homes

4,200 homes

Top 10Top 10

700 homes

Based on projected deliveries as of September 7, 2006, for fiscal 2006; includes joint ventures.

Top 10

Top 101,100 homes400 homes

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Broad Product DiversificationBroad Product Diversification

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Total Deliveries

3,967

4,623

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2005 2006

Nine Months Ended July 31,Three Months Ended July 31,

10,981

13,023

9,000

12,000

15,000

2005 2006

+ 17% + 19%

Excluding unconsolidated joint ventures.

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436411

371367

323293

275285291288257244233

196

245

308

427

150

225

300

375

450

Oct

. 02

Jan.

03

Apr

. 03

Jul.

03

Oct

. 03

Jan.

04

Apr

. 04

Jul.

04

Oct

. 04

Jan-

05

Apr

. 05

Jul.

05

Oct

. 05

Jan.

06

Apr

. 06

Jul.

06

Oct

. 06

Actual Estimate

# Active Communities# Active Communities

Excluding unconsolidated joint ventures.

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Contract Backlog at July 31,Contract Backlog at July 31,

(# Homes)

Excluding unconsolidated joint ventures.

$1.2

$1.6

$2.5

$3.6

$0.9

$3.2

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

($ in Billions)

3,6724,403

5,718

8,220

10,313

9,030

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

+ 14% + 12%

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23Debt excludes CMOs, mortgage warehouse debt and non recourse debt.

Average Net Debt/CapitalizationAverage Net Debt/Capitalization

44.5%48.2%

52.3%

60.2%57.2%

47.6% 50.0%

22.0%

33.0%

44.0%

55.0%

66.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E

Actual Projected

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Current Housing Slowdown

When will it bottom?

Where do we go from here?

BarronsApril 15, 2002

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Virginia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Sep-

05

Oct

-05

Nov

-05

Dec

-05

Jan-

06

Feb-

06

Mar

-06

Apr-

06

May

-06

Jun-

06

Jul-0

6

Aug-

06

Sep-

06

Sacramento County Area

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Aug

-05

Sep

-05

Oct

-05

Nov

-05

Dec

-05

Jan-

06

Feb-

06

Mar

-06

Apr

-06

May

-06

Jun-

06

Jul-0

6

Aug

-06

Orange County, CA

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

Sep-

05

Oct

-05

Nov

-05

Dec

-05

Jan-

06

Feb-

06

Mar

-06

Apr-

06

May

-06

Jun-

06

Jul-0

6

Aug-

06

Sep-

06

Resale ListingsResale Listings

1.7X

1.7X2.2X

Fort Myers

-

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

Aug

-05

Sep

-05

Oct

-05

Nov

-05

Dec

-05

Jan-

06

Feb-

06

Mar

-06

Apr

-06

May

-06

Jun-

06

Jul-0

6

Aug

-06

8.8X

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Economic Growth

Real Gross Domestic Product (Annual Percentage Change)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Actual Estimates

Source: Department of Commerce; Estimates from Freddie Mac

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Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

%

Source: US Department of Labor

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

'71

'73

'75

'77

'79

'81

'83

'85

'87

'89

'91

'93

'95

'97

'99

'01

'03

'05

'07

'09

'30

(000

s)

Total U.S. Housing Starts Short-term Projections Long-term Projection

Total U.S. Housing StartsTotal U.S. Housing StartsOver the past 30+ years, total U.S. housing starts have averaged 1.6 million homes annually

U.S. housing starts expected to average between 1.8 million and 2.0 million

homes annually until 2030

Source: Actual data from U.S. Census Bureau. Projections for 2006, 2007, and 2008 from Freddie Mac.Projections for 2009 and beyond from The Brookings Institution and Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University.

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Markets Remain in BalanceMarkets Remain in Balance

21,340 18,34125,344

21,648 21,564 22,223 21,892

14,746

14,965

12,457

9,457

4,723 1,987

2,566

3,848 2,951

3,1803,320

4,4435,400 6,815 8,333

6,807

13,810 16,589

22,10923,97824,95823,01120,85322,43716,506

12,869

39,21642,606

36,497

28,45220,880

12,801

10,8057,936

15,811

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05Single Family Multi-Family

New Jersey Building Permits

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Regulatory Process Constrains SupplyRegulatory Process Constrains Supply

25,673 23,884

69,744

10,101

26,36722,595

15,546 25,575 23,695 26,19213,193 23,95424,47322,72022,79517,50617,87214,31316,35137,012 43,027 42,019 43,940 42,584 20,041

7,2467,0439,4659,544 6,333

14,009

20,607 17,98021,990

32,799

41,364

58,352

75,802

96,241

10,434

17,019 18,615

0

35,000

70,000

105,000

140,000

'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Single Family Multi-Family

Coastal California Building PermitsLos Angeles, Orange and San Diego Counties

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Economic growth slowing, but expected to remain healthyMortgage rates remain lowInflation remains in check, and thus rates will remain at attractive levelsHousehold formation continues unabatedMarkets have far less over-building than in prior cyclesBuyer traffic remains healthy; Contracts will begin to stabilize at some point Large builders are continuing to take market share

Potential for Early RecoveryPotential for Early Recovery

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“I see all these wonderful opportunities cleverly

disguised as problems.”

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