Home Value and Homeownership Rates: Recession and Post-Recession Comparisons
Houston Economic Overview€¦ · Jan '02 Jan '03 Jan '04 Jan '05 Jan '06 Jan '07 Jan '08 Jan '09...
Transcript of Houston Economic Overview€¦ · Jan '02 Jan '03 Jan '04 Jan '05 Jan '06 Jan '07 Jan '08 Jan '09...
Houston Economic OverviewPresented to the Chiefs of Staff
H t Cit C ilHouston City Council By Patrick Jankowski, Vice President Research
Greater Houston Partnership
Three Takeaways . . . .Three Takeaways . . . .
• Houston’s economy• Houston s economy
–Has recovered all jobs lost in recession
– First major metro to do so
–Will repeat strong performance this year
Track of the Recession
Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Houston Metro Area, '02 ‐ '12
Track of the Recession
2.6
2.7
)
2.4
2.5
ent (M
illions
2 2
2.3
Employme
2.1
2.2
Jan '02 Jan '03 Jan '04 Jan '05 Jan '06 Jan '07 Jan '08 Jan '09 Jan '10 Jan '11 Jan '12
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
The Recession in NumbersThe Recession in Numbers
Metro Houston Employment
Seasonally Adjusted UnadjustedSeasonally Adjusted Unadjusted
Recession Began Jan ’09 Sept ’08
Jobs Lost 121,200 152,800
% Jobs Lost 4.6% 5.8%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
The Recovery in Numbers
Metro Houston Employment
The Recovery in Numbers
Metro Houston Employment
Seasonally Adjusted Unadjusted
Recession Began Jan ’09 Sept ’08
Jobs Lost 121,200 152,800
% Jobs Lost 4.6% 5.8%
Recovery Began Jan ’10 Dec ’09
Jobs Recovered 131,400 170,700
% Recovered 108.4% 111.7%
S T W kf C i iSource: Texas Workforce Commission
Percent jobs recovered through Nov ’11Houston vs. Top 10 Metros
108 4%H t
Houston vs. Top 10 Metros
75.7%
82.1%
108.4%
Boston
New York
Houston
68.9%
73.2%
Dallas
DC
16.4%
16.5%
Miami
Chicago
3 6%
11.8%
13.1%
Atlanta
Los Angeles
Philadelphia Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Reflects seasonally adjusted employment
3.6%Atlanta
Percent jobs recovered through Nov ’11Houston vs. Metros 11 through 20
108 4%H
Houston vs. Metros 11 through 20
38.3%
41.1%
108.4%
Seattle
Baltimore
Houston
21.0%
22.0%
36.6%
Tampa
Minneapolis
San Diego
14.8%
16.4%
16.8%
Riverside
St. Louis
Phoenix
4.7%
13.1%
14.8%
Detroit
San FranciscoSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Reflects seasonally adjusted employment
Houston recovery by sector through Nov ’11y y g
50%
+100%
+100%
+100%
+100%
Education Services
Hotels & Food Srvcs
Health Care
Personal Services
+100%
+100%
+100%
+100%
Retail Trade
Oil & Gas Exploration
Administrative Support
Education Services
31.6%
50.5%
66.3%
71.5%
Finance
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Professional Services
13 0%
19.9%
20.9%
30.1%
Arts Entertainment
Construction
Real Estate
TWU*
Note: Reflects unadjusted employment
* Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
0.0%
13.0%
Information
Arts, Entertainment
Houston recovery by sector through Nov ’11
50%
y y g
Education Services
Hotels & Food Srvcs
Health Care
Personal Services
Retail Trade
Oil & Gas Exploration
Administrative Support
Education Services
Finance
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Professional Services 4,100
3,400
14,500
7,800
Arts Entertainment
Construction
Real Estate
TWU*
32,300
7,200
5,300
4 100
Information
Arts, Entertainment 4,100
6,300
Drivers of Job GrowthDrivers of Job Growth
• Oil prices – Averaged $94.86 in ’11, $98.00 in ’12
• Advances in exploration technologyHydraulic fracturing– Hydraulic fracturing
• Foreign trade– Exports up 25.9% over ’10
• Weak U.S. dollar– Down 11.2 percent since Jan ’07
P l ti th• Population growth– 120,000+ per yearSources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, WISER Trade, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Texas State Data Center
Drivers of Job GrowthDrivers of Job Growth
• Oil prices – Averaged $94.86 in ’11, $98.00 in ’12
• Advances in exploration technologyHydraulic fracturing– Hydraulic fracturing
• Foreign trade– Exports up 25.9% over ’10
• Weak U.S. dollar– Down 11.2 percent since Jan ’07
P l ti th• Population growth– 120,000+ per yearSources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, WISER Trade, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Texas State Data Center
Drivers of Job GrowthDrivers of Job Growth
• Oil prices – Averaged $94.86 in ’11, $98.00 in ’12
• Advances in exploration technologyHydraulic fracturing– Hydraulic fracturing
• Foreign trade– Exports up 25.9% over ’10
• Weak U.S. dollar– Down 11.2 percent since Jan ’07
P l ti th• Population growth– 120,000+ per yearSources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, WISER Trade, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Texas State Data Center
Drivers of Job GrowthDrivers of Job Growth
• Oil prices – Averaged $94.86 in ’11, $98.00 in ’12
• Advances in exploration technologyHydraulic fracturing– Hydraulic fracturing
• Foreign trade– Exports up 25.9% over ’10
• Weak U.S. dollar– Down 11.2 percent since Jan ’07
P l ti th• Population growth– 120,000+ per yearSources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, WISER Trade, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Texas State Data Center
Drivers of Job GrowthDrivers of Job Growth
• Oil prices – Averaged $94.86 in ’11, $98.00 in ’12
• Advances in exploration technologyHydraulic fracturing– Hydraulic fracturing
• Foreign trade– Exports up 25.9% over ’10
• Weak U.S. dollar– Down 11.2 percent since Jan ’07
P l ti th• Population growth– 120,000+ per yearSources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, WISER Trade, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Texas State Data Center
Drivers of Job GrowthDrivers of Job Growth
• Oil prices – Averaged $94.86 in ’11, $98.00 in ’12
• Advances in exploration technologyHydraulic fracturing– Hydraulic fracturing
• Foreign trade– Exports up 25.9% over ’10
• Weak U.S. dollar– Down 11.2 percent since Jan ’07
P l ti th• Population growth– 120,000+ per yearSources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, WISER Trade, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Texas State Data Center
Houston’s # 1 RankingsHouston s # 1 Rankings
Fastest Growing Wages in U.S., Business Insider – January 12 2012Fastest Growing Wages in U.S., Business Insider January 12, 2012
Best Cities for Manufacturing, Forbes – December 15, 2011
Most Affordable City to Do BusinessMost Affordable City to Do Business, PwC and The Partnership for New York – May 3, 2011
Personal Safety in U.S., Mercer (as reported by Houston Business Journal) – December 1, 2011
i C iNew Housing Construction, Houston Business Journal – August 26, 2011
Fastest Growing Metro Area, Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research – July 12, 2011
Top Cities for IT Jobs, Modis – May 13, 2011
America’s Best Burger City, Travel + Leisure – May 13, 2011
Houston’s # 1 RankingsHouston s # 1 Rankings
Fastest Growing Wages in U.S., Business Insider – January 12 2012Fastest Growing Wages in U.S., Business Insider January 12, 2012
Best Cities for Manufacturing, Forbes – December 15, 2011
Most Affordable City to Do BusinessMost Affordable City to Do Business, PwC and The Partnership for New York – May 3, 2011
Personal Safety in U.S., Mercer (as reported by Houston Business Journal) – December 1, 2011
i C iNew Housing Construction, Houston Business Journal – August 26, 2011
Fastest Growing Metro Area, Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research – July 12, 2011
Top Cities for IT Jobs, Modis – May 13, 2011
America’s Best Burger City, Travel + Leisure – May 13, 2011
Outlook for ’12Outlook for 12
• Job growthE l i d P d i
• Job lossesI f i– Exploration and Production
– Oil Field Services– Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
– Information– Government
– Wholesale Trade– Retail Trade– Utilities– Real EstateReal Estate– Finance– Professional Services– Administrative Services– Health Care– Educational Services– Arts, Entertainment, Recreation– Accommodations and Dining Services– Personal Services
Forecast for ‘12
• Net new jobs
Forecast for 12
Net new jobs• 84,600
• Annual growth rate• Annual growth rate• 3.1 percent
• Historic Perspective• 7th best in past 30 years
Houston job recoveryh h N ’11through Nov ’11
50%
Education Services
Hotels & Food Srvcs
Health Care
Personal Services
Retail Trade
Oil & Gas Exploration
Administrative Support
Education Services
Finance
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Professional Services 4,100
3,400
14,500
7,800
Arts Entertainment
Construction
Real Estate
TWU*
32,300
7,200
5,300
4 100
Information
Arts, Entertainment 4,100
6,300
Houston job recovery by Dec ’12Houston job recovery by Dec 12
* Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities
To recap . . . .To recap . . . .
• Houston’s economy• Houston s economy
–Has recovered all jobs lost in recession
– First major metro to do so
–Will repeat strong performance this year
Houston Economic OverviewPresented to the Chiefs of Staff
H t Cit C ilHouston City Council By Patrick Jankowski, Vice President Research
Greater Houston Partnership