Housing the nation in an age of austerityChris Hobson – East Midlands Lead Manager, National Housing Federation

The National Housing Federation in the East Midlands

• 131 members operating in the region (65 based)

• Total stock: 140,000 – housing one in every 14 households in the region. This includes housing of all types and tenure.

• Housing associations in the East Midlands employ 6,473 people directly

• Housing associations in the East Midlands had a combined turnover of nearly £493m in 2011 and spent around £183m managing and maintaining customers’ homes, with a GVA of £413m, supporting 9,500 jobs

• HA offer is more than just building homes – regeneration; levering in  investment in communities where others won’t go; each year HA’s in the region invest over £9m on community projects.

Housing the nation in an age of austerity

- Supply vs Demand – the bigger picture

- Impact on the East Midlands housing market

- Where might we go from here? The growth argument for greater housing investment in the region

Supply vs Demand – the bigger picture

Basic equation

390,000 new households were formed in 2010/11 – only 111,250 new homes were built = new demand outstripping supply by over 3:1 (CLG)

Supply vs Demand – the bigger picture

Top-line results

-37% increase in private sector rents in 5 years (NHF, CIH, Shelter)

-94% increase in house prices over the past 10 years (Land registry)

-1.8 million families on waiting list for social housing (CLG)

-25% increase in homelessness acceptances over past 2 years – 50,000 families accepted as homeless in 2011/12 (CLG)

-417,830 more working people now rely on housing benefit to pay their private sector rents, an 86% increase in 2 years (DWP)

Supply vs Demand – the bigger picture

Supply vs Demand – the bigger picture

Impact on the East Midlands housing market

East Midlands: 3rd fastest total population growth, 2000-2010 (%)

Impact on the East Midlands housing market

The number of households in the East Midlands is expected to increase by 22,000 a year from 2008 to 2033, a rise of 29%. Rural areas in the south and east of the region are expected to experience the strongest growth.

Impact on the East Midlands housing market

Just 9,930 new homes were built in the East Midlands in 2011/12, a fall of 6% on the previous year. New housing completions in the region have now fallen for four years in a row. Last year we built 45% of the new homes needed to meet new housing demand

Impact on the East Midlands housing market

The number of people aged 65+ in the East Midlands is expected to grow by 65% from 2011 to 2033.The number aged 85+ will increase by 150%, the largest regional rise in this age group in the country.

Impact on the East Midlands housing market

At £161,000, house prices in the East Midlands have risen almost three times faster than earnings (£20,030) over the past ten years. While homes in more urban areas of the East Midlands cost an average of 7.4 times local income, in rural areas the average home costs 8.9 times income

Impact on the East Midlands housing market

Local Authority

Average private rent, two bedrooms, Oct 2011 to Sept 2012

Average private rent, all property sizes, mix adjusted, Oct 2011 to Sept 2012

Annual rent inflation rate, all property sizes

Private rental inflation, annual monetary equivalent

Change in average wage

Bassetlaw £430 £479 1.3% £71 -0.8%Broxtowe £526 £599 4.2% £273 2.6%Daventry £550 £662 2.7% £197 -3.4%East Lindsey £441 £461 2.3% £127 -2.2%Mansfield £437 £479 0.4% £20 -3.3%Melton £480 £578 4.5% £297 -4.3%NE Derbyshire

£468 £540 1.1% £72 -5.1%

Nottingham £575 £498 3.3% £189 -2.4%

Private sector rents in the East Midlands are expected to rise by 67% in the next ten years, the biggest increase in the country.

Impact on the East Midlands housing market

A 25% deposit on the average home in the East Midlands costs £40,249, or two years’ gross average income. The cost of a mortgage deposit in the region is over 4.5 times higher than ten years ago.

Impact on the East Midlands housing market

What does all of this translate into? - 116,439 households are on social housing waiting lists in the East Midlands. - Nearly 3,800 households were accepted as homeless by local authorities in the East Midlands during 2011/12. Homelessness in the region has increased by 24% in the last two years. - 110 families were living in temporary bed and breakfast accommodation in the region at the end of 2011/12, a 38% jump on the previous year.  - 40,000 families were living in overcrowded homes in the East Midlands in 2011, an increase of 18% on the previous year.   

Where might we go from here? The growth argument for greater housing investment in the region

• A growing population represents opportunities to develop the region’s workforce… but they need homes to live in.

• Rising costs of housing decreases disposable income to spend in local economies

• Strong track record of delivery - in 2010 we delivered 8.3% and 10.1% of national total of social and private development respectively

• Total cost of provision 2008-2011 third lowest of all regions

• Lowest land cost for residential planning permissions of all regions

• Building 6,152 affordable homes in the East Midlands by 2015 (under HCA programme only):- GVA of £425m to the economy- Creation of 9,940 jobs

Where might we go from here? The growth argument for greater housing investment in the region

2.002.102.202.302.402.502.602.702.802.90

Total GVA multipliers

Questions that need to be considered…

• Who are the interested partners in this work?

• How do we most effectively build the case for greater housing investment?

• With a growing emphasis on greater local responsibility for growth strategies, the devolution of funding and competitive bidding who do we need to be influencing on this?

• What are the risks of getting this wrong?

Questions/Discussion

Chris HobsonLead Manager – East MidlandsChris.Hobson@housing.org.uk