Hourly Entry vs Occupancy Count Abacus Mock-Up

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EUROPEAN ORGANISATION FOR THE SAFETY OF AIR NAVIGATION

EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE

HOURLY ENTRY COUNT VERSUS OCCUPANCY COUNT RELATIONSHIP ABACUS MOCK UP (III)

EEC Note No. 17/07

Project: Instant Load

Issued: 2007

EUROCONTROL

REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE

Reference EEC Note No. 17/07

Security Classification Unclassified

Originator: EEC - NET

Originator (Corporate Author) Name/Location: Eurocontrol Experimental Centre B.P.15 F-91222 Brétigny-sur-Orge CEDEX FRANCE Phone: +33 (0) 1 69 88 75 00 Internet : www.eurocontrol.int

Sponsor Eurocontrol Experimental Centre

Sponsor (Contract Authority) Name/Location Eurocontrol Agency Rue de la Fusée, 96 B-1130 Bruxelles Phone : +32 (0) 2 729 90 11 Internet : www.eurocontrol.int

TITLE: Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count Relationship – Abacus Mock Up -

Author Christine Plusquellec (Thales)

Marc Dalichampt (EEC)

Date 2007

Pages viii + 13

Figures 6

Tables -

Annexes -

References -

Project

Instant Load Task no. sponsor

- Period

-

Distribution Statement: (a) Controlled by: (b) Special Limitations : (c) Copy to NTIS:

Descriptors (keywords) :

Instant Load – Tactical Monitoring Indicators – Instant Capacity – Hourly Capacity - Hourly Entry Count – Occupancy Count - Abacus

Abstract :

This document presents the first version of the Abacus Mock Up. This tool can be used in order to help

to specify some new functionalities related to leading to a best use of the Instant Load in an operational

tactical context and it can also be used in order to validate the proposed methods aiming to define,

mainly:

• The Standard, Warning and Risk Occupancy values related to given thresholds and related to

each Hourly Entry Count value (Sector Work Rate Profile).

• The Traffic Monitoring Value Hourly Rate, the Maximum Value Rate (Warning Density Area).

• The Peak Value Occupancy and the Sustain Value Occupancy (Warning Density Area).

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Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count Relationship – Abacus Mock Up EUROCONTROL

Instant Load Project – EEC Note No. 17/07 v

FOREWORD

Some first investigations have been made concerning:

• The models, the calculation modes and the variability of the Instant Load indicator and the Maximal Instant Load indicator as well. First, high-level recommendations have emerged from the study of the Instant Load indicator in order to be applied in the current operational tactical context. The relevance of the Instant Load indicator depends on the look ahead. Indeed, higher the look ahead is, more uncertain the flights information are. And whichever the used model, the reliability of the Instant Load depends on the accuracy of the available flights informations. More flights informations the model needs, more sensitive it is related to their accuracy. According to the uncertainties of the flights informations, more sensitive the Instant Load model is, more it has to be used with a short look ahead. Then, the relation between Hourly Entry Count and Occupancy Count as Instant Load has been proposed as a method to extract the Maximal Instant Load value as Instant Capacity related to the Hourly Regulation Capacity. Its promising exploitation has initiated the current Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count Relationship study. The third technical note amongst three, named Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count Relationship – Abacus Moack Up is presented here.

• The Instant Work Load using COCA Workload concepts based on some specific complexity indicators. The first results showed that the Instant Work Load concept has to be matured and that it seems difficult to base the regulation only on an only WorkLoad Indicator. In a first time, it seems to be more relevant to focus the work on the study of relevant complexity indicators. This conclusion has initiated the Flight List Complexity study.

EUROCONTROL Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count Relationship – Abacus Mock Up

vi Instant Load Project – EEC Note No. 17/07

TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOCUS .............................................................................................................................. IX

OBJECTIVES .................................................................................................................... IX

DOCUMENT (ABACUS MOCK UP)................................................................................... X

REFERENCE..................................................................................................................... XI

1. QUICK REFERENCE MANUAL – MOCK UP DESIGN................................................1 1.1. LOADING AND CHANGING THE ENVIRONMENT OF SIMULATIONS ....................... 2 1.2. LOADING AND CHANGING THE PARAMETERS OF SIMULATIONS ......................... 2 1.3. EXECUTING ACTIONS FOR BUILDING ABACUSES .................................................. 3

1.3.1. Doing Countings ................................................................................................3 1.3.2. Editing the Results of Counting .........................................................................3 1.3.3. Modifying the Sustainable, Peak or Capacity Values ........................................4

1.4. EDITING THE COUNTINGS .......................................................................................... 4 1.5. EDITING THE ABACUS INDICATORS.......................................................................... 4

2. QUICK USER MANUAL MAIN FUNCTIONALITIES .................................................6 2.1. HEC VERSUS OCC ABACUSES – FIRST SCENARIO ................................................ 6 2.2. OCC VERSUS HEC ABACUSES – SECOND SCENARIO ........................................... 9

3. QUICK INSTALLATION MANUAL .............................................................................11

4. FIRST CONCLUSIONS...............................................................................................12

5. PERSPECTIVES - VALIDATION................................................................................12


Instant Load Project – EEC Note No. 17/07 vii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 – Abacus Mock Up Design .............................................................................................. 1 Figure 2 – All HEC Prediction Range ............................................................................................ 7 Figure 3 – Sustainable, Peak and Capacity Thresholds Abacuses............................................ 7 Figure 4 – OCC Prediction for HEC = 38 ....................................................................................... 8 Figure 5 – All OCC Prediction Range .......................................................................................... 10 Figure 6 – HEC Prediction for OCC = 12 ..................................................................................... 10


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Instant Load Project – EEC Note No. 17/07 ix

FOCUS

The ATFCM Concept of Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count Relationship1 aims to build, for a given sector, abacuses which currently purposes strategic and tactical indications for the strategic and tactical phases as:

• The Occupancy2 amplitude, respectively Hourly Entry amplitude: the set of the managed Occupancy Count values related to each Hourly Entry Count value, respectively the set of managed Hourly Entry Count values related to each Occupancy Count value.

• The Occupancy duration, respectively Hourly Entry duration: the proportion of time during which each Occupancy Count value is managed related to each Hourly Entry Count value, respectively the proportion of time during which each Hourly Entry Count value is managed related to each Occupancy Count value.

These relationship abacuses especially promise, within the operational ATFCM context and within the study of global system performance evaluation, methods in order to extract during the strategic phase, for each given sector, Monitoring indicators being used in an operational context during the tactical phase as:

• The Standard, Warning and Risk Occupancy values related to given thresholds and related to each Hourly Entry Count value (Sector Work Rate Profile).

• The Traffic Monitoring Value Hourly Rate, the Maximum Value Rate (Warning Density Area).

• The Peak Value Occupancy and the Sustain Value Occupancy (Warning Density Area).

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to know how to tune the relationship and its abacuses indicators up. It purposes a technical validation and proposals of operational use. It consists in:

• Identifying3 relevant abacuses indicators as Standard, Maximal, Warning and Density. Functional and operational interests of these indicators, calculation methods will be given.

1 The Relationship is oriented. It is named Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count, noted HEC → OCC (OCC →

HEC) when a set of Occupancy Count values corresponds to a given Hourly Entry Count.

2 Occupancy (Hourly Entry) for HEC → OCC (OCC → HEC) relationship orientation.

3 This first point refers to the technical note named Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count – Definitions and

Indicators (I).


x Instant Load Project – EEC Note No. 17/07

• Proving4 and evaluating the robustness of the abacuses: it will be proved by means of the Abacus method that they can be predicted according to identified conditions. Issued from the calibration phase, recommendations related to the best conditions increasing their robustness and their prediction will be given.

• Providing abacuses indicators results by means of Abacus method. They will analyse through their use within the operational ATFCM context and through their use within the global system performances evaluation as well.

Preparing the ground for elaborating working practices using abacuses indicators by means of the Abacus mock up that will be presented. The Abacus mock up will apply the Abacus method.

DOCUMENT (ABACUS MOCK UP)

This third document presents the Abacus mock up. It implements functionalities described in the technical note named Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count – Robustness, Calibration, Application (II). It both aims to help to study and validate the relationship concepts and to elaborate scenarios of working practices.

4 These second and third points refer to the technical note named Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count –

Robustness, Calibration, Application (II). The forth point refers to the technical note named Hourly Entry Count versus

Occupancy Count – Abacus Mock Up (III).


Instant Load Project – EEC Note No. 17/07 xi

REFERENCE

Instant Load - Occupancy Count

Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count Relationship – Definitions and Indicators (I) Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count Relationship – Robustness, Calibration, Application (II) Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count Relationship – Abacus Mock Up (III)

Flight List Complexity

Flight List Complexity – Definitions, Factors and Indicators (I) Flight List Complexity – Scenarios and Applications (II) Flight List Complexity – TLMT (Abacus) Mock Up (IV)

COCA

A Complexity Study of the Maastricht Upper Airspace Centre

Complexity Algorithm Mathematical Theory Methods, Algorithms and Indicators for the Measurement and Prediction of Complexity: a literature Review Exploring the Non-linear Relationships in Air Traffic Complexity Complexity Algorithm Integration Plan.


xii Instant Load Project – EEC Note No. 17/07

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Instant Load Project – EEC Note No. 17/07 1

1. QUICK REFERENCE MANUAL – MOCK UP DESIGN

The development of the Abacus Mock Up is included in an incremental and iterative process. It can evolve related to operational or study needs and according to the addition of new functionalities. Five IHM parts in the Abacus Mock Up as shown on the Figure 1 aim to:

1. Loading and changing the environment of simulations.

2. Loading and changing the parameters of calculation and edition in the part Parameters.

3. Execute Actions for building abacuses in the part Actions:

Doing Countings in the part Count….

Editing the results of Countings in the part Edit….

Modifying the given sustainable, peak or capacity values in the part Enter Load Threshold or Capacity.

4. Editing the countings in the Count Area.

5. Editing abacuses with the Abacus indicators in the Abacus Area.

Figure 1 – Abacus Mock Up Design

1

2 3 45

6

7


2 Instant Load Project – EEC Note No. 17/07

1.1. LOADING AND CHANGING THE ENVIRONMENT OF SIMULATIONS

The Menu bar presents seven items which aim to describe the environment of simulations:

1. Centres for the list of centres: in a first time, only Maastricht and Reims.

2. Airspaces for the list of sectors: in a first time, only few sectors of each centres. A mouse click on a sector name loads the corresponding sector data sample.

3. Traffic Days for the list of available dates in the data samples: in a first time, three months of Traffic days. A mouse click on this item show the list of the available months, then a mouse click on a month shows the list of the available days of the selected month.

4. Periods for periods in the day: not currently available.

5. Modes for the relationship orientation: HEC versus OCC that is to say the Occupancy Count values related to the Hourly Entry Count values, or vice versa OCC versus HEC.

6. Reset before beginning an entire new simulation.

7. Quit in order to end the Abacus process.

8. Plot: not currently available.

The menu bar takes into account the choice of the user after a mouse click, executes the corresponding command and updates dynamically its items.

1.2. LOADING AND CHANGING THE PARAMETERS OF SIMULATIONS

The parameters of simulations are:

1. Hourly Entry Counts for Hourly Entry Countings Periods:

60 per 60 min.: 60 min. for Step and 60 min for Duration.

60 par 20 min.: 20 min. for Step and 60 min for Duration.

2. Occupancy Counts for Occupancy Counting Periods:

5 min.: 5 min. for Step and 5 min for Duration.






3. Abacus Mode for Query Period:

All Mixed Days: all the Traffic days of the data samples are considered.

Weekdays: the Traffic days are grouped by days related to the day in a week, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, etc.

1.3. EXECUTING ACTIONS FOR BUILDING ABACUSES

1.3.1. Doing Countings

The main Count… actions are:

1. Count Loads: considering the selected parameters, Hourly Entry Count and Occupancy Count are calculated for each Traffic day of the sample data.

2. Count Abacus: considering the selected parameters and the Hourly Entry Count and the Occupancy Count, abacuses are built.

The Count Abacus action is only available when Hourly Entry and Occupancy countings are done.

1.3.2. Editing the Results of Counting

The main Edit… actions are:

1. Loads…: considering the selected parameters, the relationship orientation and the day of traffic, the available countings are edited in the Count Area.

2. Thresholds…: the loaded values in the Enter Load Threshold or Capacity area are edited in the Count Area.

3. Abacus All…: all the calculated abacuses are edited in the Abacus Area.

4. Abacus Threshold…: the only abacuses concerning the loaded values in the Enter Load Threshold or Capacity area are edited in the Abacus Area.

Abacuses are edited only when they verify the probabilistic model.



1.3.3. Modifying the Sustainable, Peak or Capacity Values

This part aims to edit selected thresholds in the Count Area and to select the edition of some special abacuses in the Abacus Area.

The entries are:

1. Sustainable threshold for a sustainable Hourly Entry or Occupancy value.

2. Peak threshold for a peak Hourly Entry or Occupancy value.

3. %Capacity for increasing or decreasing indicative Capacity value.

4. Capacity for an indicative Hourly Entry or Occupancy Capacity.

The main Enter Load Threshold or Capacity actions are:

1. Default for taking into account the initial default values..

2. Enter after having entered some new values.

3. Capacity +/- % for increasing or decreasing the Capacity value with the value in the %Capacity entry.

1.4. EDITING THE COUNTINGS

The countings are edited in the Count Area for the chosen day of traffic and according to the given parameters used for the calculation and the relationship orientation.

The threshold values in the Enter Load Threshold or Capacity area are edited in the Count Area.

1.5. EDITING THE ABACUS INDICATORS

The calculated Abacuses are edited in the Abacus Area. Six columns are available:

1. Count name and values: if the relationship is HEC versus OCC, the name and the edited Count values are Hourly Entry. If the relationship is OCC versus HEC, the name and the edited values are Occupancy.

2. Count name and values: if the relationship is HEC versus OCC, the name and the edited Count values are Occupancy. If the relationship is OCC versus HEC, the name and the edited values are Hourly Entry.

3. Times Frequency: number of instances of each pair (Hourly Entry Count, Occupancy Count) and vice versa (Occupancy Count, Hourly entry Count).



4. Empiric Simple Frequency: empiric percent of realisation of each pair.

5. Empiric Cumulated Frequency: empiric cumulated percent of realisation of each pair.

6. Theoretical Simple Frequency: theoretical percent of realisation of each pair.

7. Theoretical Cumulated Frequency: theoretical cumulated percent of realisation of each pair.

Each line as shown on the Figure 2 shows the information for the maximal value of the Occupancy (vice versa Hourly Entry).

A mouse click in the first column makes visible all the Occupancy (vice versa Hourly Entry) values as shown on the Figure 4, their empiric and theoretical simple and cumulated frequencies.



2. QUICK USER MANUAL MAIN FUNCTIONALITIES

The main current functionalities are the countings and the building of the abacuses.

The mock up will evolve and then the flights list and its complexity indicators will be taken into account.

Two scenarios are given as examples of use. At this moment, these examples are rather examples of study cases and not really example of operational use. They help and prepare the ground for studying operational working practices.

2.1. HEC VERSUS OCC ABACUSES – FIRST SCENARIO

For example, the HEC → OCC Work Practices of EDDYHAHI related to the day of traffic 25/08/07 are studying:

1. Select EBMA with a mouse click on Centres.

2. Select EDYYHAHI with a mouse click on Airspaces and a mouse click on EDDYHAHI.

3. Select 8 with a mouse click on Traffic Days, with a mouse click on 8 select 25.

4. The default relationship orientation is HEC versus OCC.

5. The default values of parameters provide the best conditions for the best robustness of the results.

6. A mouse click on Count Loads does the Hourly Entry Counts and the Occupancy Counts for all the days of the data sample.

7. A mouse click on Loads edits the Hourly Entry Counts.

8. A mouse click on Thresholds edits the sustainable, peak and Capacity Hourly Entry values.

9. A mouse click on Abacus Counts builds the Hourly Entry abacuses.

10. A mouse click on Abacus All edits all the built abacuses as shown on the Figure 2.

11. A mouse click on Abacus Thresholds only edits the built abacuses corresponding to the sustainable, peak and capacity Hourly Entry values as shown on the Figure 4.

12. A mouse click on 38 edits the Occupancy values related to Hourly Entry Count = 38 and their empiric and theoretical, simple and cumulated frequencies as shown on the Figure 4. The Occupancy indicators as Warning, Occupancy, Maximal Occupancy and Standard Occupancy for each Hourly Entry Count value for the 25/08/07 in the Count Area are available and visible.



Figure 2 – All HEC Prediction Range

Figure 3 – Sustainable, Peak and Capacity Thresholds Abacuses



Figure 4 – OCC Prediction for HEC = 38



2.2. OCC VERSUS HEC ABACUSES – SECOND SCENARIO

1. Select EBMA with a mouse click on Centres.

2. Select EDYYHAHI with a mouse click on Airspaces and a mouse click on EDDYHAHI.

3. Select 8 with a mouse click on Traffic Days, with a mouse click on 8 select 25.

4. The default relationship orientation is HEC versus OCC. Select the OCC versus HEC label with a click mouse on the HEC versus OCC label.

5. The default values of parameters provide the best conditions for the best robustness of the results.

6. A mouse click on Count Loads does the Hourly Entry Counts and the Occupancy Counts for all the days of the data sample.

7. A mouse click on Loads edits the Occupancy Counts.

8. A mouse click on Thresholds edits the sustainable, peak and Capacity Occupancy values.

9. A mouse click on Abacus Counts builds the Occupancy abacuses.

10. A mouse click on Abacus All edits all the built abacuses as shown on the Figure 5.

11. A mouse click on Abacus Thresholds only edits the built abacuses corresponding to the sustainable, peak and capacity Occupancy values.

12. A mouse click on 12 edits the Occupancy values related to Occupancy Count = 12 and their empiric and theoretical, simple and cumulated frequencies as shown on the Figure 6. The Hourly Entry indicators as Warning, Hourly Entry, Maximal Hourly Entry and Standard Hourly Entry for each Occupancy Count value for the 25/08/07 in the Count Area are available and visible.



Figure 5 – All OCC Prediction Range

Figure 6 – HEC Prediction for OCC = 12



3. QUICK INSTALLATION MANUAL

The installation of Abacus Application needs:

• Executable: C, C++, Gtk.

• Linux.

• Sectors Data Samples extracted from Data Samples provided by CFMU.



4. FIRST CONCLUSIONS

The Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count Relationship is implemented in the Abacus Mock Up which can be used both in terms of theoretical validation and consolidation of the concepts and in terms of operational use validation or needs.

The interest of the Abacus Mock Up is that it aims to help to best specify functionalities in an incremental and iterative process. It aims now to evolve and integrate the flights list with its complexity indicators. It aims also to be modified in order to best take into account Instant Load – Occupancy Count needs related to operational working practices study, in particular.

It can already be noted that the concepts of Sustain Occupancy, Peak Occupancy and Sustain Hourly Entry and Peakk Hourly Entry as described in this technical note have to be matured and best defined related to the need and the possible use as working practices.

5. PERSPECTIVES - VALIDATION

It could be add new functionalities in the Abacus Mock Up related to the methods aiming to define Monitoring Indicators as presented in the technical notes named Hourly Entry Count versus Occupancy Count Relationship, respectively Definitions and Indicators (I) and Robustness, Calibration, Application (II):

1. Semiautomatic or automatic mode (semiautomatic or automatic Warning Area Density) in order to extract the Monitoring values for a given sector, as:

The Traffic Monitoring Value Hourly Rate, the Maximum Value Rate (Warning Density Area), and so the deduced Hourly Capacity.

The Peak Value Occupancy and the Sustain Value Occupancy (Warning Density Area), and so the deduced Instant Capacity.

2. Graphic presentation of the Sector Work Rate Profile related to a given Hourly Entry Count according to the results presented in the Abacus Area.

3. List of the days and list of the periods of the day amongst the Traffic days of the data samples that are linked by a given pair of values (Hourly Entry Count, Occupancy Count) in order to study and investigate more precisely the reasons of such observations by means of:

The study of the Flight List Complexity corresponding to such a pair of values (Hourly Entry Count, Occupancy Count).

The study of the status of the flights within the Flight List, for example, if it is regulated or not.



4. Presentation of the Occupancy values and of the corresponding Flight related to a given Hourly Entry Count value.

It will be modified the area named Enter Load Threshold or Capacity and the area named Abacus Area in order to adapt it relevantly according to the specific tactical needs.

Hourly Entry vs Occupancy Count Abacus Mock-Up

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