Hotel Performance Across Key European Markets · 2018-05-23 · Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17...
Transcript of Hotel Performance Across Key European Markets · 2018-05-23 · Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17...
© 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Hotel Performance Across Key European Markets
Natalie Weisz – Research & Analysis Manager
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Maths & Philosophy
Commercial Analysis
Research & Analysis
Natalie’s Timeline
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
STR, collecting data since 1985
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Our cornerstone
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
What we do
Occ, ADR, RevPARSupply/DemandRevenueP&L
Existing supplyFuture supplyPipelineCharacteristics
Main KPIsMacro economic inputMicro economic input5 years/6 quarters/18 months
Performance Reports Supply Reports Forecast Reports
Research Studies
WhitepapersEvent ImpactRegional Performance ReviewsAd Hoc studies
AnalysisCompression Day of Week Event ImpactBespoke client reporting
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
1. Global Overview
2. Europe continues to fly
3. Central & Eastern Europe – positivity all around
4. Russian recovery continues?
5. Sun shining in Euro Med
6. Strong and steady Germany
7. Brexit means..
8. Amsterdam boost
9. Looking ahead
Agenda
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Global Overview
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
MiddleEast
SouthernAfrica
NorthernAfrica
+2.7%
Global RevPAR % Change
USD, Europe in EUR, Constant Currency, Full Year 2017
Europe
Asia
+3.2%
+3.8%
+5.6%
+37.9%
+4.6%
-5.6%
+3.5%
Australia & Oceania
+3.7%
NorthAmerica
CentralAmerica
SouthAmerica
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
1.9%
1.2%
2.6%
0.8%
5.2%
1.3%
3.3%
1.6%
2.8%
3.3%
4.9%
3.2%
4.0%
7.0%
6.2%
2.5%
North America &Caribbean
Central America South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &Oceania
Supply Demand
Significant demand growth across the world
Global Supply & Demand % Change, Full Year 2017
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
US Concerns…Trumped Up
0%
5%
10%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (F) 2019 (F)
Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2015 2016 2017
Supply % change
Demand % change
RevPAR % change
Intra-APAC travel continues to drive demand
Asia Pacific – Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change, USD, CC, Full Year 2015-2017
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Middle East supply growth has outpaced demand for the past 3 yearsUSD, CC, Full Year 2011-2017
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Significant supply growth is still on the way across the Middle East
Demand will need to grow significantly
105,616 more rooms
by 2020
489 seats on A380 & 4
days Length of Stay
42 more A380s daily in the sky
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Dubai has a pipeline of over 60k rooms Dubai supply and pipeline from AM:PM
20172022
Existing Hotel
PipelineHotel
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Europe continues to fly
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
2%2%
4%
6%
2%
5%5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018
Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change
Demand outpacing supply for 5 consecutive years
Europe – Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change, EUR, CC, Full Year 2012 – 2017, Q1 2018
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2016 2008
2017 occupancies now almost 10% above previous peakFull Year 2008, 2016 & 2017
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Vienna
Madrid
London
Brussels
Europe – RevPAR % Change, LC, Full Year
Dublin
Edinburgh
Paris
Lisbon
Helsinki
St. Petersburg
Moscow
Zurich
Barcelona
Amsterdam
Istanbul
BelgradeBucharest
Kiev
Budapest
BerlinWarsaw
Prague
22
20
19
18
12
10
19
-2 2
8
9
2
4
35
810
8
11
15
Copenhagen
Europe strong across the board in 2017
3
Rome
Athens10
1
2
4
7
# Compression Nights (>90% Occ) ADR Premium
Market 2007 2017 2007 2017
Dublin 27 145 13% 23%
Prague 24 126 21% 19%
Lisbon 27 92 17% 29%
Budapest 27 86 19% 21%
Athens 28 87 17% 14%
Dublin and Prague lead the wayTop 5 growth markets – compression nights – 2007 vs 2017
# Compression Nights (>90% Occ) ADR Premium
Market 2007 2017 2007 2017
Brussels 64 37 53% 64%
Rome 42 18 13% 15%
Moscow 42 14 35% 25%
Paris 48 2 14% 42%
Istanbul 50 1 5% 12%
Terror impact drives down performance Bottom 5 growth markets – compression nights – 2007 vs 2017
Hotels have shown increased resilience to terror attacks
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
London Manchester Centre Barcelona Istanbul Brussels Paris Nice Berlin
Recovered: Nice(1), Brussels (2), Istanbul (2)
No Impact: London, Manchester, Barcelona, Berlin
In Recovery: Paris (2+ years later)
RevPAR indexed to month before terror, 12 months rolling, LC
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Central & Eastern Europe –positivity all around
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Eastern Europe EuphoriaFull Year 2017 RevPAR % Change – Local currency
19
15
11
9
15
4
10
4720
9
7
4
13
-2
3
14
24
4
16
36
1018
5
9
17
8Tallinn
St Petersburg
Nizhny NovgorodYekaterinburg
Novosibirsk
Astana
Almaty
BakuTblisi
Sochi
Voronezh
Kazan
MoscowRiga
Gdansk/Gdynia/Sopot Vilnus
Kiev
Bucharest
SofiaBelgrade
Ljubljana
Bratislava
Prague
Budapest
Krakow
Warsaw
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Eastern Europe EuphoriaFull Year 2017 RevPAR % Change – Local currency
19
15
11
9
15
4
10
4720
9
7
4
13
-2
3
14
24
4
16
36
1018
5
9
17
8Tallinn
St Petersburg
Nizhny NovgorodYekaterinburg
Novosibirsk
Astana
Almaty
BakuTblisi
Sochi
Voronezh
Kazan
MoscowRiga
Gdansk/Gdynia/Sopot Vilnus
Kiev
Bucharest
SofiaBelgrade
Ljubljana
Bratislava
Prague
Budapest
Krakow
Warsaw
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Central & Eastern Europe
Central Eastern Europe – Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change, Full Year 2007-2017, Q1 2018
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018
Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Central Eastern Europe – strongest pipeline marketsTop 10 Pipeline Cities – Room count – as at March 2018
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Vilnius
Poznan
Bucharest
Sofia
Saint Petersburg
Gdansk/Gdynia/Sopot
Budapest
Tbilisi
Warsaw
Moscow
ThousandsPipeline
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Sun shining in Euro Med
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
2017 was a fantastic year across the MediterranenFull Year 2017, RevPAR % change - constant currency
Istanbul34
Canary Islands5
Tunis38Greek Islands21
Italian Islands10
Algarve10
Marrakech17
Cairo81
Sharm El Sheikh119
Barcelona 10
Marbella 15
Cote D Azur / Provence0
Eilat1
Tel Aviv3
Lisbon 22Balearic Islands5
Bodrum65
Croatian Coast15
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
SpainMain KPIs – EUR, Full Year 2017
74.5%Occupancy+0.5%
114.44ADR+7.8%
85.28RevPAR+8.4%
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
A tale of two halvesDaily Occupancy and ADR % change, April 2017 to March 2018
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Occupancy % ADR %
April May June July August September October November December January February March
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
2018 ForecastNorth Africa and Mediterranean to see double digit RevPAR growth… Barcelona with flat RevPAR at best
Recovery in Egypt & Turkey New highs in EuroMed Uncertainty in Barcelona
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Brexit means…
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Growth widespread across the UK in 2017
Liverpool
13
6
4 London
Aberdeen-6
12
1
Edinburgh
Manchester
Belfast
Glasgow
Cardiff
3 Newcastle
4Bristol
8
Leeds0
Birmingham 2
0 Southampton
UK Total: +4.2%London: +4.4%
Regional UK: +3.7%
5 Nottingham
17
5
Oxford6
1 Cambridge
8Blackpool
9Inverness
9Plymouth
Full Year 2017, RevPAR & Change
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
ADR (£) ADR ($) ADR (EUR)
… driven by Sterling weakness which is now ‘used up’London Exchange Rate Impact, January 2017 – March 2018, GDP vs USD & EUR
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18
Occupancy % Chg ADR % Chg
London, January 2017 – March 2018, GBP
As a result occupancies have turned negative and ADR is following
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
… occupancy likely to be negative in the short to medium termLondon Supply and Demand % Change, 12 month moving average
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Supply Demand
Actual Forecast
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Strong and stable Germany
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Events drive strong and stable performanceGermany – Rooms supply, demand & RevPAR % Change, EUR, Full Year 2012-2017, Q1 2018
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018
Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Dortmund and Dusseldorf on topGermany – Pipeline/Existing % – Data from AM:PM, 09 May 2018
Hamburg+ 24%
Berlin+ 10%
Frankfurt am Main+ 18%
Munich+ 20%
Dusseldorf+ 28%
Dortmund+ 38%
Hanover + 14%
Cologne + 9%
Stuttgart + 12%
Dresden+ 9%
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Dusseldorf Munich Hamburg
High supply increase impacts markets differently German Markets – RevPAR % Change, 12 month moving average
Strong demand
Longer to stabilize
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Amsterdam boost
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018
Occ % Chg ADR % Chg RevPAR % Chg
Amsterdam on the up in 2017Full Year 2012 – 2017, Q1 2018, Local Currency
€ 117
81%
€144
2017
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
12.6%
9.9%
1.1%
23.9%
2017 Q1 2018
Transient RevPAR % change Group RevPAR % change
Transient segment thrives in 2017, while 2018 sees boost in groupsAmsterdam – RevPAR by Segment % Change, LC, Full Year 2017, Q1 2018
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Amsterdam’s rooms & ancillary revenues on the up in 2017
Revenue Mix
72%
25%
3%
Rooms F&B Other
10%
3%
17%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Rooms F&B Other
RevPAR Growth
Revenues by Departments, EUR
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Airport and Surrounding driving the growth Full Year 2017, RevPAR % Chg, Local Currency
Amsterdam
Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
Amsterdam CentreAmsterdam Surrounding
Museums Quarter & Vondelpark
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
AD
R %
Ch
g
Occ % Chg
BehindAhead
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Amsterdam on top in ADR growth, yet behind in occupancyKey Netherlands Cities - Full Year 2017, Occ & ADR % Chg, Local Currency
AmsterdamUtrecht
Rotterdam Area
The Hague
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
AD
R %
Ch
g
Occ % Chg
# Compression Nights (>90% Occ) ADR Premium
Market 2016 2017 2016 2017
Amsterdam 41 79 23% 22%
Utrecht 53 61 17% 18%
Rotterdam 11 10 -2% 16%
The Hague 28 42 7% 15%
Amsterdam leads in compression nightsCompression Analysis – 2016 vs 2017
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Amsterdam’s occupancy to remain positive moving forward Amsterdam Supply and Demand % Change, 12 month moving average
Actual Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Supply Demand
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Looking Ahead
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
STR’s forecast overview for full year 2018Forecast – February 2018 Edition
Paris Moscow Brussels
London Warsaw Hamburg
Amsterdam Athens Zurich
Recovery Continues
Strong Growth
Supply Challenges
© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.
© 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Thank You!
Natalie Weisz