!!!!!!HOT TOPIC!!!!!!!

ARKANSAS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

?????

Water Again……and

?Are extinctions important?

Six Natural Regions of Arkansas

•Delta, or Mississippi AlluvialPlain- the primary agricultural part of Arkansas. Includes swamps, prairies, and rich farmland.

•Ozark region - flat-topped mountains, or plateaus, which have been eroded overmillions of years.

•Arkansas River Valley - 40-mile wide trough carved by the river long ago, divides the Ozark and Ouachita Mountains.

•Ouachita Mountains – largely covered in pine trees, includs Hot Springs and the diamond crater at Murfreesboro.

•Gulf Coastal Plain - once coveredby the Gulf of Mexico 50 million to 100 million years ago. Includes agriculture and timber as well asoil and natural gas deposits.

•Crowley's Ridge - originally anIsland between the Mississippi and Ohio rivers. Composed of windblown silt (loess).

• 3rd largest drainage basin in the world, exceeded only by the Amazon and Congo.

• Drains 41 percent of the 48 contiguous states of the US.

• Covers more than 1,245,000 square miles.

• Includes all or parts of 31 states and two Canadian provinces.

North of Louisiana – part of the Mississippi Drainage Basin

"The duck hunting capital of the world." More than 70,000 duck stamps are sold in Arkansas every year, and more mallards are harvested in the state than in the rest of the Mississippi flyway.

Located in the Mississippi flyway, it is an important stopping area for large numbers of ducks, geese, shorebirds, blackbirds, sparrows, warbler and thrushes,

Arkansas is the leading rice producing state in the U.S., representing 46.5% of the total U.S. production .

Arkansas is home to the world's largest rice processing and exporting company, Riceland Foods, Inc., Producers Rice Mill, Inc. and 8 other rice milling companies.

Leader in POULTRY and EGG production

America's First National RiverOne of the few remaining rivers in the lower 48 states without dams.

Traveling eastward through the Arkansas Ozarks into the White River.

“The Grail Bird” – The Ivory Billed WoodpeckerLast confirmed to have been seen alive in 1944 in Louisiana and last believed heard in the 1980s in Cuba.Believed to be extinct.Sighted in the Cache River National Wildlife Refuge (White River)

Fourth Assessment Report: "Climate Change 2007”

Warming of the world’s climate is “unequivocal” and is now evident from observations.

Analysis of climate models with constraints from observations provides for better assessment of the climate response.

There is now a higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional scale features including changes in wind patterns, precipitation, and some aspects of extreme events.

North America to experience water stress especially in the west.

Decreased snow pack, increased winter flooding, and reduced summer flows.

Increased pests, diseases, and fires.

Increased yields in agriculture by 5-20% with regional variability.

Increased heat waves especially in urban areas.

Increased vulnerability in coastal regions from sea level rise and increase in storm intensity.

Don Wuebbles, professor and executive coordinator of the School of Earth, Society, and Environment, at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

"If we look at the current climates in the U.S., what it means is that we're talking about a climate for the state of Illinois that's maybe more like eastern Texas by the end of the century.

Or if we talk about Michigan or Wisconsin, we're talking about a climate that's maybe more like that in Arkansas by the end of the century,"

“Precipitation won't be that much different, but there will be more in winter and spring and less in summer than at present, and when there is rainfall, it's more likely to come in a heavy storm. That means flooding is more likely to accompany rains, and the summers may have droughts.”

But what of Arkansas?????

1-1.5 deg 2.5-5 deg

Projected Heating

10-20% less rainIn AK

5-10% more rainIn upper Miss basin

Generally less rain over Gulf of MexicoMore rain over Upper Mississippi initially.

12% drier by 2030

32% drier by 2095

What are Arkansas’ Vulnerabilities????

Warming over the US Southeast is projected.

Precipitation change is more difficult to predict.Influence of El NinoInfluence of the Gulf

Generally thought that precip may increase in the short termthen decrease as the century closes.

Although average annual precip may not change much, an overall drier climate is expected because rainfall cannot compensate forevaporation.

Severe events increase – flood, drought, storms

Rice started being grown in the Grand Prairie (Mississippi Alluvial Plain ) in 1904.

A treeless plain with gentle relief, moderate climate, abundant groundwater, and a claycap that was resistant to percolation of irrigation water.

Arkansas 1st in US rice production

Retains water in fields No recharge of aquifer

As early as 1910, more water was being withdrawn from the aquifer than was being naturally recharged.

By 1954, a cone of depression had developed in the water table surface that was 65 feet deep.

From 1910 to 1958, the water table dropped an average of one foot per year.

The rice was irrigated from the shallow Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer.

Rice Farming Areas

Citizens have become concerned about the declining water levels,reduced well yields, and deterioration of the chemical quality of water in a number of areas.

Critical Ground-Water Areas

Pumping from the most productive aquifers in Arkansas, the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer and the Sparta aquifer, has led to declining water levels throughout the Gulf Coastal Plain.

These aquifers are the principal source of water for irrigation, industrial, and public supplies in this region.

The State Legislature has passed a bill that allows the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission (ASWCC) to define critical ground-water areas when 50% of the water table has been depleted and to restrict water use within them.

“Rice farmers are on the brink of draining one of Arkansas' biggest aquifers dry.”

The Army Corps of Engineers Plan

2 percent of water from the White River would be diverted for farm use, a project that would include pumping stations, canals and reservoirs

$200 million in federal money, or about $300,000 a farmer.

How Does The Aquifer Recharge???The Arkansas, White, St. Francis, and Mississippi Rivers, are in hydraulic connection with the Mississippi alluvial aquifer. Recharge to the alluvial aquifer from these rivers becomes induced as ground-water level declines.

"One could take the position that, hey, the farmers are the ones who created this mess, so why don't we just let their wells go dry and let everybody go broke, and then the problem will fix itself, but the critical problem is that right now, we're facing an imminent aquifer failure." Alan Perkins, a Little Rock lawyer and an authority on water law

"We see groundwater depletion in Arkansas being a major problem, and one that involves the national interest, and really the only federal agency with the expertise and ability to deal with it is the Corps," Earl T. Smith, chief of the Arkansas commission's water resources management division.

Lower river flows could alter the habitats of certain fish and migratory birds, including ducks, and thus hurt fishing and hunting. Arkansas Wildlife Federation.

"Why should we subsidize a pump that will sell subsidized water to grow a subsidized crop?"

Some News Clips:

Nearly all sides agree that time for a decision is running short. Water levels in the shallow aquifer are declining at rates so fast that by 2015 there will not be enough left underground to sustain the area's farms. The economic impact of such a collapse could surpass $46 million a year, the Corps has estimated.

It is time for the government to do in other states what has long been done in the West — provide irrigation water to farmers who have no other resort.

The U.S. poultry industry produces 6.12 million tons of manure per year from broilers, "It would make a row three feet wide by three feet high that would stretch twice across the country,"

Levels of nitrate are 1.5 to 10 times greater and phosphate are 1.5 to 3 times greater in six small agricultural watersheds than similar urban areas. Coliform levels often exceed safe swimming limits.

The Arkansas and White Rivers recharge to the already stressed Mississippi alluvial aquifer.

Oklahoma Sues Arkansas claiming Phosphorous pollution of 6 of its scenic rivers.

Nutrient Surpluss Areas Established:

A geographic area where the soil Concentration of one or more nutrients is so high that the continued application of Nutrients could negatively impact soilfertility and waters within the state.

Settelment (2003)

Flood Control Act of 1928 - the world's longest system of levees was built.

Flood of 1927

affected an area of 27,000 mi2. (about the size of all the New England states combined)

>130,000 homes were lost

700,000 people were displaced.

246 flood-related deaths reported.

~$350 million dollars in property damage (equivalent to ~ $5 billion dollars today)

What happens in the Mississippi Drainage Basin Effects Arkansas

The people and states upstream are linked inextricably to those downstream in the common destiny of a single water system.

Role of soil moistureIn the spring and summer of 1993, moisture from the soils in thesouthern states evaporated and was transported northward, where it produced more severe storms in the areas of greatest flooding.

More Frequent and Severe Storms:Arkansas may be susceptible to flooding from storms whichhit Louisiana.

Animal Migration Patterns and Habitat(NWF)

The mid-winter duck count has progressively decreased in Arkansas since the 1950’s.$118.3 M/yr is spent in migratory bird hunting.

Warmer fall and winter temperatures in the north would make it unnecessary for waterfowlto fly as far south to find ice-free water. Projected to impact by as much as 50%.

Loss of tourism $$$$: $1.2B/yr

Northern movement of freshwater fish species

Potential to expand the range of imported red fire ants.

The breeding ranges of 31 species of songbirds, including 3 species of sparrows, 8 warblers, and 2 tanagers, could shift out of Arkansas forever due to climate change.

Arkansas forests expected to change dramatically:

East to be overtaken by longleaf and slash pine

Including the habitat of the Ivory Billed Woodpecker

“Adequate habitat is key to the bird’s recovery” USFWS

West change to savannah

40-60% of Arkansas forrest could be replaced by grassland

“Global warming is the greatest threat to birds and other wildlife in Human history.” Marnie Urso, Audubon Ohio

15-37% of all species may face extinction. Nature

"Species that adapted to changes over millennia are now being asked to make those adaptations extremely quickly because of the swift rise in temperatures. We don't know how many will survive. We will lose species." Robert Hepworth, executive secretary of the Convention on Migratory Species, a treaty under the auspices of the U.N. Environment Program.

Climate change can strike at each stage of their annual trek, from breeding ground to rest stops to their final destination.

Springtime is starting earlier,

Climate models predict a decline in rice production in the Mississippi Delta region of 20% by 2100.

Summary:

A decrease in precipitation could further stress depleted aquifers and lead to higher levels of nutrient and bacterial pollution.

Some Questions:

1. Who wins the water wars? – Farmers vs Woodpeckers2. Should we care about extinctions? Should we “prioritize” species?3. Can we afford to wait for the development of new technologies

such as carbon sequestration.5. Which is scarier – Global Change or Nuclear Energy?6. Is “Clean Coal” an oxymoron?