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CONCEPT NOTE

Natural Hazards, Climate Change, and Cross-Border Displacement in the Greater

Horn of Africa: Protecting people on the move

Nansen Initiative Greater Horn of Africa Regional Consultation

21-23 May 2014

Boma Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya

I. Introduction

The Greater Horn of Africa1 experiences a wide range of natural hazards, most commonly severe

droughts and floods, but also landslides, dust storms, earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes. The

effects of climate change are expected to lead to sea level rise, desertification, and increased rainfall

variability. While such hazards drive internal and cross-border displacement in the Horn of Africa, in

many circumstances these movements occur within a complex environment impacted by poverty,

conflict, generalized violence, and governance challenges. For example, the 2011-2012 Horn of Africa

drought crisis affected an estimated 13 million people,2 prompting millions of people to move within

their own countries in search of food, water, shelter, and other forms of humanitarian assistance,

while hundreds of thousands of other people primarily from Somalia sought refuge across

international borders.3

Recognizing the multiple and overlapping factors impacting displacement in the Horn of Africa, actors

at the local, national, regional and international levels have undertaken significant efforts to link and

integrate disaster risk reduction, humanitarian assistance, pastoralism, peacebuilding, development,

and food security strategies and plans. However, although these measures address some of the

protection needs of people displaced across international borders in the context of disasters, other

protection and assistance gaps remain. For example, issues related to admitting displaced persons

into a foreign country in disaster contexts, the conditions under which they would be permitted to stay

(e.g., access to basic public services), and the conditions and modalities of return have not been fully

addressed in existing international or regional laws, policies or administrative procedures

1 For the purposes of this paper, the Greater Horn of Africa refers to Member States of the Intergovernmental Authority on

Development (IGAD): Djibouti, Eritrea (suspended, 2007), Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. 2 Slim, Hugo, “IASC Real-Time Evaluation of the Humanitarian Response to the Horn of Africa Drought Crisis in Somalia, Ethiopia and

Kenya” (Nairobi, 2012). 3 According to the UNHCR’s 2011 Global Report for Somalia, as a result of the drought, famine, ongoing conflict, insecurity and

human rights violations, “an estimated 290,000 Somalis fled across the border into neighbouring countries, mainly to Ethiopia and

Kenya, while more than 1.3 million were estimated to be internally displaced.” UNHCR, “Global Report 2011- Somalia” (Geneva,

2011). Available at: http://www.unhcr.org/4fc880a70.html.

Government of Kenya

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This concept note and agenda introduces the Nansen Initiative Greater Horn of Africa Regional

Consultation held in Nairobi, Kenya from 21-23 May 2014. It will be complemented with a more

detailed background paper that will be distributed to participants prior to the consultation. In

preparation for the Regional Consultation this note briefly identifies key topics for discussion related to

cross-border disaster-induced displacement in light of existing mechanisms and emerging protection

needs in the Horn of Africa. Based upon this, it then proposes an agenda for the Horn of Africa

Consultation. This note reflects meetings with representatives from governments, civil society,

international organizations, and academics in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda that were held

during preparatory missions undertaken by the Nansen Initiative between November 2013 and

February 2014.

II. Background to the Nansen Initiative

Launched by the Governments of Norway and Switzerland in October 2012, the Nansen Initiative is a

state-led, bottom-up consultative process intended to build consensus on the development of a

protection agenda addressing the needs of people displaced across international borders in the

context of natural hazards, including those linked to the effects of climate change.4

To build consensus on the protection agenda, the Nansen Initiative is in the process of undertaking five

Regional Consultations in the Pacific, Central America, the Greater Horn of Africa, South-East Asia, and

South Asia over the course of 2013 and 2014. The first two Regional Consultations took place in

Rarotonga, Cook Islands and San José, Costa Rica in May and December 2013, respectively. The

Nansen Initiative is also hosting regional meetings with civil society representatives in these same five

regions. The Horn of Africa civil society meeting entitled, “Natural Hazards, Climate Change and Cross-

Border Displacement: Protecting People on the Move” took place on 3-4 March 2014 in Nairobi.

Outcome documents from all of the regional consultations contain recommendations for further

action at the community, national, regional and international levels.

In 2015, the Nansen Initiative will bring together state representatives, experts and practitioners from

around the world to discuss a protection agenda for cross-border displacement in the context of

disasters. The global consultation and the protection agenda itself will build upon the consolidated

knowledge generated from the five Nansen Initiative Regional Consultations, research conducted and

commissioned by the Nansen Initiative Secretariat, and contributions from global partners, including

on-going relevant policy processes and initiatives.

III. Background to Disasters and Cross-Border Displacement in the Horn of Africa

The Greater Horn of Africa includes the eight IGAD countries, covering an area of 5.2 million square

kilometres, including a 4,000 kilometre coastline. While 60-70 per cent of the region is arid and semi-

arid, the region also has large forested and savannah-based biomes, as well as large coastal tropical

4 The Nansen Initiative is funded by the Governments of Norway and Switzerland, with additional financial support from the

European Commission. It is governed by a Steering Group, which at the time of writing is comprised of nine Member States:

Australia, Bangladesh, Costa Rica, Germany, Kenya, Mexico, Norway, the Philippines, and Switzerland. A Consultative Committee

informs the process through expertise provided by representatives from international organizations addressing displacement and

migration issues, climate change and development researchers, think tanks, and NGOs. The Envoy of the Chairmanship represents

the Nansen Initiative throughout the process, providing strategic guidance and input. Finally, the Nansen Initiative Secretariat,

based in Geneva, supports the process with additional strategic, research, and administrative capacity.

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areas and islands. More than 200 million people with diverse and varied cultural and ethnic

backgrounds live in the region speaking over 100 language dialects with ethnic groups, tribes and

families spanning international borders. Customary legal systems are also prominent at the local level

and used to oversee mobility issues, land use and ownership, conflict resolution, and resource

management decisions.

Slow-onset disasters caused by drought remain the most immediate environmental challenge for

people living in the Horn of Africa. An increasing number of sudden-onset disasters associated with

heavy rainfall also frequently affect the region, such as flash floods along its extensive coastline and

arid inland areas.5 Landslides have been known to accompany heavy precipitation in certain areas. To

a lesser extent, the Rift Valley faces earthquakes, while coastal areas can experience hurricanes and

occasionally tsunamis. For example, the 6.8 magnitude Toro Ruwenzori earthquake that occurred on

20 March 1966 was one of the most severe earthquakes in the East Africa Rift Valley. Somalia

experienced severe infrastructure damage from the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami that

killed 298 people and displaced more than 50,000. In November 2013 a hurricane and tropical cyclone

hit Somalia’s northern Puntland region, killing between 100-300 people.

In the Horn of Africa, climate change is expected to lead to increased water stress, higher

temperatures, desertification, dust storms and decreased agricultural output. In coastal areas, sea

level rise and higher sea temperatures pose an additional set of risks, including beach erosion,

increased coral bleaching, and threats to seaside settlements.6 The IPCC noted specifically that “case

studies from Somalia and Burundi emphasize the interaction of climate change, disaster, conflict,

displacement, and migration.”7

Low levels of development associated with poverty, water shortages food insecurity, limited social

services, weak rule of law and contested governance structures are challenges to varying degrees in

the region8 and contribute to a complex “conflict, disaster, and displacement nexus.” States, ethnic

groups, pastoral communities and ideological groups repeatedly clash, with wide-ranging effects. The

increased privatisation of land, the rising number of people moving from rural to urban areas – both

Addis Ababa and Nairobi are among the top five fastest growing cities in the world – and the region’s

over three per cent population annual growth have likewise contributed to changes in human mobility.

In this context, the region’s many pastoralists involved in livestock production face challenges in

preserving traditional migratory practices, knowledge and cultural norms.

As in other parts of the world, the drivers of displacement in the Horn of Africa are multi-causal and

inter-linked. Thus, displacement in the Horn of Africa often includes people who have moved for a

variety of reasons, one of which may be a natural hazard. Within current systems, it is difficult to

identify the people displaced by disasters amongst larger migration or refugee flows, particularly given

the lack of common criteria to identify a person displaced across international borders in disaster

contexts.

5 Government of Kenya, "National Climate Change Action Plan - Adaptation - Technical Report - Risk Assessment" (Nairobi 2012).

6 Cf. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds), Contribution of Working Group II to the

Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 (Cambridge University Press). 7 IPCC Working Group II, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Africa Chapter, p.6.

8 According to UNDP’s 2012 Human Development Index, out of 186 countries surveyed, all of the IGAD countries scored in the

bottom 25 percentile. Note that Somalia and South Sudan were not included. http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/hdi

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Most displacement in disaster contexts is internal. For example, landslides have caused internal

displacement in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. In October 2005, a 5.5 magnitude earthquake triggering

the volcanic eruption of Mount Arteala prompted Ethiopian government authorities to order the

evacuation of some 50,000 people.9 Cross-border displacement has more commonly occurred during

drought and floods. As previously mentioned, during the 2011-2012 drought well over a million

people were displaced, both internally and across borders, including from Somalia into Kenya and

across the Gulf of Aden into Yemen. Previously, over a million people were displaced in the context of

the 1982-83 drought, mainly within and from Ethiopia and Sudan.10

Other examples of severe

droughts in the pastoral border regions of Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan have also caused recurrent

internal and cross-border movements.11

Flooding has also caused regular displacement across the

region. Between 1998-2000, one study reported that flooding and landslides caused the internal and

cross-border displacement of an estimated 250,000 people in Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, and South

Sudan.12

Despite the existence of people crossing borders in the context of disasters, there is no assurance

under international law that a person will be admitted and receive protection in another country in the

context of a sudden-onset or slow-onset disaster.13

Most recently, the 2011-2012 drought crisis in the

Horn of Africa highlighted this gap, although some countries granted prima facie refugee status to

asylum seekers fleeing drought-affected areas applying national refugee legislation based upon the AU

Refugee Convention. Notably, the 2014 IPCC Report on Climate Change has stated that climate change

is also likely to contribute to increased internal and cross-border displacement globally, a phenomenon

addressed in various climate change plans in the Horn of Africa region.

IV. The Regional Consultation in the Greater Horn of Africa

The Nansen Initiative’s third Regional Consultation will be hosted by the Government of Kenya in

Nairobi from 21-23 May 2014. The Consultation will be co-organized by the Government of Kenya, the

Norwegian Refugee Council’s Regional Office in Nairobi, and the Nansen Initiative Secretariat in Geneva.

The Consultation will begin with a two day technical workshop, followed by a one day dialogue on the

workshop’s outcomes and agreement for follow-up. Participants will include representatives from

states, international organizations, NGOs, civil society, academic institutions and other key actors

working on issues related to displacement, disaster risk reduction, disaster management, climate

change adaptation, human rights protection, migration management, development and climate

change.

The overall objectives of the Nansen Initiative Regional Consultation for the Horn of Africa are to: i)

learn more about displacement and human mobility dynamics in the region, ii) identify the region’s

9 Medilinks, ‘50,000 Ethiopians Advised to Evacuate After Earthquakes, Volcanoes’ (2005)

<http://medilinkz.org/old/news/news2.asp?NewsID=12739> accessed 28 October 2013. 10

de Waal, Alexander, Evil days: Thirty years of war and famine in Ethiopia (An Africa Watch report, Human Rights Watch 1991). 11

Ngeiywa , Benson. ‘Deterring Cross-Border Conflict in the Horn of Africa: A Case Study of the Kenya-Uganda Border’ (2008). 12

Declan Conway, ‘Extreme rainfall events and lake level changes in East Africa: recent events and historical precedents’ [2004] The

East African great lakes: limnology, palaeolimnology and biodiversity 63. 13

Kälin and Schrepfer have proposed the following as necessarily elements to be addressed: “Movement-related rights:

Beneficiaries should be entitled (i) to enter countries of refuge, (ii) to stay there temporarily, i.e. as long as the obstacles to their

return exist; (iii) to protection against refoulment as well as expulsion to other countries; and (iv) to permanent admission if after a

prolonged period of time (some years) it becomes clear that return is unlikely to become an option again.”

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specific challenges related to disasters and displacement, and iii) develop concrete, practical, policy

and programmatic outcomes to enhance the region’s overall preparedness and response to these

challenges.

Expected outcomes from the Regional Consultation may include the following:

1. A better understanding of the overall displacement dynamics in the region (drivers, trends,

patterns, pathways and characteristics of the population) and the general protection needs of

people displaced by disasters;

2. Identification of good practices, at regional, national and community levels, in establishing

mechanisms for disaster preparedness, building resilience, and responding to and managing

displacement risks;

3. Identification of institutions, programs and policies that address the interests and rights of

displaced populations to move (including transit) with dignity, in safety and with full respect for

their human rights;

4. Discussion of issues related to i) criteria for identifying people displaced across borders in

disasters, ii) admissions, and iii) standards of treatment in the context of cross-border

migration and displacement in disaster situations, iv) highlighting opportunities for further

inter-state collaboration;

5. Examples of return following disasters that have been accompanied by processes of recovery

and development aimed at strengthening overall resilience of affected communities;

6. An outcome document identifying common displacement challenges in the context of disasters

and climate change in the Horn of Africa, and agreement on recommendations on how to

address them.

V. Key Topics for the Regional Consultation

The discussions during the Nansen Initiative Greater Horn of Africa Regional Consultation will focus on

four thematic issues: 1) Protecting the Displaced; 2) Internal and Cross-Border Movements of

Pastoralists; 3) Migration as Adaptation to Environmental and Climate Change; 4) Disaster Risk

Reduction and Resilience Building Measures in the Context of Displacement. It will conclude with a

discussion about how to incorporate the outcomes from the Regional Consultation within existing

processes at the Regional and Sub-Regional Level.

A. Protecting the Displaced

There is no temporary protection scheme on the Continent or within the Greater Horn of Africa region

that explicitly addresses cross-border displacement in disaster contexts, nor are there universally

applied criteria to determine, in the context of disasters, when a movement could be characterized as

forced across international borders for the purposes of international law.14

The AU Refugee

14

Drawing on Article 1(A)2 of the Refugee Convention, Walter Kälin proposes that a “person displaced across borders by the effects

of climate change as a person in need of international protection” should meet the following criteria: 1) “Outside the country of

origin or habitual residence,” 2) “Danger to life, limb or health as a consequence of the effects of climate change or the nature of

the response, or the lack thereof, by competent authorities in the country of origin or habitual residence,” 3) “Unable or unwilling

to avail oneself of the assistance and protection of the country of origin or habitual residence.” He suggests that these criteria be

interpreted based upon a “returnability” test that analyzes the “permissibility, feasibility (factual possibility) and reasonableness of

return.” Kälin in McAdam, Jane, (ed), Climate Change and Displacement: Multidisciplinary perspectives (Hart Publishers, 2012).

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Convention’s more expansive refugee definition includes “events seriously disturbing public order,”

which has the potential to address disaster contexts, although to date it has only been applied in

disaster situations occurring alongside other factors driving cross-border displacement such as

violence, conflict, human rights abuses, and an inability to access assistance.

Participants to the Regional Consultation can consider under what conditions the AU Refugee

Convention should be applied in disaster contexts to admit drought victims seeking asylum as refugees

and, to guard against refoulement, discuss whether there is a need to develop additional criteria or

guidance to identify those in need of protection and assistance in disaster contexts. They can also

discuss in what disaster contexts the AU Refugee Convention would not be appropriate, and whether

such situations would warrant another system, such as a humanitarian visa, to grant admission. The

discussion will also address other protection issues, such as: 1) prevention and mitigation, 2)

admission, 3) status during stay, 4) housing, land and property, 5) physical security, and 6) finding

durable solutions.

B. Internal and Cross-Border Movements of Pastoralists

As of 2008, an estimated 60 to 80 per cent of the population of the Horn of Africa is involved in

pasture-based agricultural systems, contributing more than 15 per cent of IGAD’s total GDP.15

In many

border areas, pastoralists’ daily life, economic markets, and migratory pathways are governed by

localized forces, only tangentially impacted by official border demarcations.16

Pastoralists traditionally

use mobility, both within countries and across borders, as an adaptation measure to environmental

stress. Pastoralists can also become displaced in disaster contexts, including across borders, with

experts predicting that in the future pastoralists and agro-pastoralists “are likely to form the bulk” of

people displaced in the context of disasters in the region.17

However, according to one author, there is

a “limited understanding and appreciation of the range of cross-border linkages among pastoral

communities and of the implications for drought preparedness, management and response.”18

Participants could discuss what measures could be taken to support pastoralists mobility, including

across international borders, to facilitate migration as an adaptation measure in the context of natural

hazards such as drought. Participants to the Regional Consultation could discuss what measures could

address the specific protection and assistance needs of pastoralists when they are displaced across

international borders in disaster contexts, and how existing policies and processes could further

address these needs.

C. Migration as Adaptation to Environmental and Climate Change

State responsibility includes the obligation to prepare for and, where possible, prevent displacement.

State responsibility to prevent displacement could also mean that states have a duty to attempt to

secure, legal, voluntary means for their citizens to move to another part of the country, or, in

15

Sandford, Judith and Ashley, Steven, "Livestock Livelihoods and Institutions in the IGAD Region: IGAD LPI Working Paper No. 10"

(2008). This percentage is likely significantly higher in reality, owing to the large-scale informal cattle trade practiced across the

Horn. 16

Little, Peter, "Pastoralism in a Stateless Environment: The case of the Southern Somalia borderlands" (2004) Geography Research

Forum. 17

Leroy, Marcel and Gebresenbet, Fana, "Climate Conflicts in the Horn of Africa?", Conflict Trends (2011). 18

Pavanello, Sara, "Working Across Borders: Harnessing the potential of cross-border activities to Improve livelihood security in the

Horn of Africa drylands" (2010). The pastoral communities of the Borana, Gabra and Garri in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and South

Sudan; the Nuer, Anywaa and Uduk in Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan; and the Somali and Afar in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia and

Kenya all saddle national borders, and unregulatedly migrate between countries regularly.

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exceptional cases, to migrate abroad to another country. It is for this reason that the 2011 Nansen

Conference in Oslo urged national governments to “proactively anticipate and plan for migration as

part of their adaptation strategies and development plans.”19

Migration in the Horn of Africa involves large, constant, mixed flows of people moving both within and

from the region to Southern Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and further abroad. Migrants move

voluntarily for education or employment, but also for other reasons such as to avoid inter-clan

disputes, or cover basic needs.20

Not surprisingly, studies have also shown a correlation between

environmental stress and increased migration. The extent of irregular migration in the region is

difficult to quantify; however those who move are most likely to be young (of school going age) and

male.21

Participants in the Consultation will be invited to discuss in what contexts migration could be viewed

as positive way to adapt to environmental degradation and other natural hazards. They could also

explore how existing free movement arrangements can facilitate migration as a positive form of

adaptation in times of environmental stress, addressing in particular the severe protection challenges

facing migrants.

D. Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Building Measures in the Context of Displacement

State responsibility requires States to prepare for foreseeable disasters and to do what is possible to

prevent threats to the lives and property of people, including preventing displacement. Disaster risk

reduction activities, contingency planning exercises, infrastructure improvements, relocating people at

risk of displacement to safer areas, land reform, and other measures to improve resiliency are all

potential actions to prevent displacement.22

Disaster risk reduction and early warning measures are

explicitly mentioned in the Kampala Convention. Within the region, the IGAD Drought Disaster

Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI) also provides a forum for discussing, designing and

managing regional disaster risk reduction and disaster management policies, as well as for integrating

development plans across State boundaries.

Participants could discuss how disaster risk reduction, food security, and development strategies in the

region could better address the concerns of people displaced across international borders in disaster

contexts, identifying examples of good practices and lessons learned from past experience.

E. International Cooperation and Solidarity

International cooperation and solidarity are essential elements in addressing the protection risks

associated with cross-border displacement in the context of disasters. Fully anticipating and

responding to potential displacement dynamics requires coordination and planning across the various

fields of disaster risk management, humanitarian response, human rights, migration, border

management, development, and climate change.

19

Ibid. 20

Katy Long and Jeff Crisp, ‘In harm's way: the irregular movement of migrants to Southern Africa from the Horn and Great Lakes

regions’ [2011] UNHCR Evaluation 7. 21

Cf. Hastrup, Kirsten and Olwig, Karen (eds), Climate change and human mobility (Cambridge, 2012); UNHCR (ed.), "Regional

Conference on Refugee Protection and International Migration: Mixed Movements and Irregular Migration from the East and Horn

of Africa and Great Lakes Region to Southern Africa" (2010). 22

Note that planned relocation is addressed within the discussion of durable solutions to displacement.

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Within the Greater Horn of Africa region, a number of existing legal frameworks and ongoing processes

are relevant to the protection of displaced persons in disaster contexts. Notably, the East African

Community (EAC) is in the process of drafting a Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Bill that may

incorporate protection for those displaced in disaster contexts, including across borders.23

The African

Union’s 2009 Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa

(Kampala Convention) also explicitly recognizes the protection and assistance needs of internally

displaced persons in disaster contexts.24

Although it does not specifically mention disasters linked to

natural hazards, the 1969 African Union Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee

Problems in Africa (AU Refugee Convention) has been applied in situations where the drivers of

displacement included conflict and disasters, namely the 2011-2012 Horn of Africa drought crisis, as

will be discussed later in this document. Also relevant, among others, are the Intergovernmental

Authority on Development’s (IGAD) 2013 Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative

(IDDRSI), the IGAD Regional Consultative Process on Migration (IGAD-RCP), the 2010 Protocol on the

Establishment of the East African Community Common Market, and the 2010 African Union Policy

Framework for Pastoralism in Africa.25

Participants at the Consultation could discuss how cross-border movement in the context of disasters

could feature within the context of the existing processes and policies.

VI. Administrative Details

A. Venue

The Consultation will be held at the Boma Nairobi Hotel in Nairobi, Kenya from 21-23 May 2014.

B. Participants

Participants will include representatives from the IGAD member States as well as Yemen, IGAD, the

EAC, and the African Union. Member States of the Nansen Initiative Steering Group, the Group of

Friends, as well as other interested states are also invited to participate in the consultations.

UN agencies and Red Cross Societies, community-based and faith-based organizations, other NGOs

and representatives from affected communities will be invited to participate together with academic

and research institutions that have been engaged on issues related to forced displacement, disaster

risk management, and human mobility.

To promote inter-active discussions, participation will ideally be limited to 70-80 individuals.

C. Other administrative details

The Nansen Initiative will cover the cost of travel and accommodation of approximately 50 participants

from the Greater Horn of Africa Region, in addition to delegates representing the Yemen, IGAD, the

23

The five East African Community member States are Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. 24

As of December 2013, Uganda had ratified the Convention, with Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Somalia as

unratified signatories. Kenya and Sudan had neither signed nor ratified the Convention. 25

African Union, “Policy Framework for Pastoralism in Africa: Security, Protecting and Improving the Lives, Livelihoods and Rights of

Pastoralist Communities” (Addis Ababa, 2010).

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EAC, and the African Union. International organizations, Nansen Initiative Steering Group members

and other interested states are requested to defray their own expenses.

The Nansen Initiative Regional Consultation in the Greater Horn of Africa Region is supported by the

generous contributions of: