Horn Indago Petroleum Report 201005 - Final

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    INDAGO PETROLEUMR ESEARCH & A NALYSIS, OCTOBER  2005

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    T H E   C O M P A N Y• Indago Petroleum (Indago) is a new company that intends to list on AiM in November 2005.

    • Indago was formed through a management buy-out of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Omani assets of NovusPetroleum (Novus), an oil company previously listed on the ASX. Novus was acquired by PT Medco Energi (Medco),the Indonesian oil company, in a hostile take-over in 2004.

    • The acquisition of Indago was financed by Meridian Capital which owns 69% of the company. Crosby Capital and themanagement team respectively own 21% and 10% of the company.

    T H E   M A N A G E M E N T• The management of Indago have been in place for over 9 years and have built an attractive exploration portfolio using

    their strengths in field mapping and integration.

    • Indago's management have established a reputation in the region as a competent partner through their operatorshipof the offshore Bukha gas and condensate field (Block 8, Oman). In addition, in the same block, they have taken the WestBukha well through appraisal to development phase.

    A S S E T   P O RT F O L I O• Indago have focused on developing an understanding of the fold-belt fairway of the Northern Arabia Peninsula, in Oman

    and the UAE. They have integrated surface geology with improved seismic imaging to generate a suite of attractiveexploration prospects. All reservoir targets have established analogous regional producers.

    • Indago has developed a mature prospect inventory with Hagil and Ash Sham in the UAE (Onshore RAK); Jebel Hafit(Block 31), and Adam and Izz (Block 47) in Oman.

    • There are also several follow-up leads in each of the blocks to enable Indago to build on any exploration success in thecurrent drillable prospects. Indago also has a number of opportunities in the region which may enable it to grow the

    portfolio further in the event of exploration success.

    W O R K   P R O G R A M• Indago is expected to raise up to US$ 120 million (m) at its IPO to be applied to debt repayment, project development,

    the drilling of 5 wells, exploration and the finalisation of new projects.

    • The US$ 60 m West Bukha development well is underway. The US$ 16.7 m Hagil well spudded at the start of October 2005.Thereafter, Indago expects to spud a US$ 11.4 m well at Adam in May 2006, followed by a US$ 24.8 m well at Jebel Hafitin September/October 2006. A US$ 10.2 m well at Izz will be spudded either before or after drilling starts at Hafit,with a US$ 5.4 m well at Ash Sham scheduled for August 2006.

    VA L U AT I O N• With a target reserve base of 1.93 billion (bn) barrel of oil equivalent (boe), with a gross adjusted probability value

    of US$ 1.6 bn, Indago has a range of high impact exploration opportunities.

    • The estimated unrisked recoverable Gas Initially In Place (GIIP) of the Prospect portfolio is 6.2 trillion cubic feet of gas(Tcf) gas. Using a 1 in 5 probability, and a fixed gas price of US$ 1.20 and US$ 1.40/MMbtu for the Oman and theUAE respectively, the value is approximately US$ 403 m.

    • The estimated unrisked Condensate Initially In Place (CIIP) plus LPG volume from the current prospect inventoryis 789 MMboe. 82% of condensate potential is contained with two prospects, Jebel Hafit and Hafit. On a risked basisat a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price equivalent of US$ 30/bbl, the value of this condensate portfoliois approximately US$ 1.2 bn.

    • The expected volume from the current lead inventory is 212 Bcf gas and 4.7 MMboe condensate plus LPG. Using a 1 in 20probability at the fixed gas prices noted above and a WTI of US$ 30/bbl, the value of the gas, condensate and LPG Leadportfolio is approximately US$ 7.4 m. This valuation only reflects those leads valued by Petrenel, the technical consultant.In addition, Indago’s management have developed a portfolio of leads to which no value has as yet been attributed

    • Adjusting for possible back-in's, a 30% weighting of the calculated value of Jebel Hafit and Hagil, and a deductionof 25% from the adjusted value for various risk factors; within a WTI price range of US$ 30/bbl to US$ 54/bbl, an indicativevaluation for Indago is between US$ 427 m to US$ 701 m.

    E X E C U T I V E   S U M M A R Y

    Indago Petroleum would like to thank NASA for providing the cover image for this Report.

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    1 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    THE COMPANY   2

    OVERVIEW   2

    STRATEGY   4

     NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS   5

    EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS   7

    OPERATING STRUCTURE   8

    CORPORATE GOVERNANCE   10

    THE U NITED ARAB EMIRATES AND OMAN   12

    R EGIONAL E NERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND   16

    ASSET PROFILE   18

    PRODUCTION   22

    DEVELOPMENT   24

    PROSPECTS   26

    LEADS   32OPPORTUNITY   38

    WORK  SCOPE & FINANCING   40

    R ISKS   44

    FINANCIAL A NALYSIS   48

    VALUATION   54

    GLOSSARY   62

    APPENDIX 1: OVERVIEW OF THE E NERGY SECTOR    64

    R ATINGS SYSTEM & CERTIFICATION   69

    R ESEARCH DISCLOSURES   70

    DISCLAIMER    71

    C O N T E N T S

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    T H E   C O M P A N Y

    2MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    OVERVIEW

    Indago Petroleum (Indago) intends to list on the London AiM market

    in November 2005.

    Indago is a focused oil and gas Exploration and Production (E&P)

    company with a portfolio of opportunities, which vary in risk and maturity.

    Indago was formed through a management buy-out of the United Arab

    Emirates (UAE) and Sultanate of Oman (Oman) assets of NovusPetroleum (Novus).

    Novus was acquired by PT Medco Energi (Medco), the Indonesian oil

    company, in a hostile take-over in 2004.

    The buy-out of the assets of Indago was financed by Meridian Capital

    which on a pre-money basis owns 69% of the company. Silk Route

    Petroleum, a company controlled by Crosby Capital, and the management

    currently own 21% and 10% of the company respectively.

    Indago is the 100% owner of subsidiary companies Indago Technical

    Services Ltd, Indago Oman Ltd (IOL) and Indago Al Khaleej Ltd (IAK).

    These companies hold its interests in a producing gas-condensate field

    (Bukha), and an approved gas-condensate development (West Bukha),

    which is expected to come in stream in late 2007. Both of these assets are

    located off the Musandam Peninsula in Omani waters.

    In addition, Indago has 5 drillable prospects (Jebel Hafit, Block 31; Hagil

    and Ash Sham, Ras Al Khaimah; Adam and Izz, Block 47) and plans to drill

    5 exploration wells prior to 2007.

    Indago is an active explorer and in addition to its portfolio of Prospects,

    it has several Leads in different stages of development.

    The company is also actively evaluating a number of new venture

    opportunities.

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    3 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    Source: Indago Petroleum

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    STRATEGY

    Indago aims to become a leading producer of natural gas in Oman and the

    UAE in order to satisfy a significant forecast regional supply/demand

    imbalance.

    This objective will be achieved through:

    • Development of existing fields

    • Exploration in existing licenses held by the company

    • Acquisition of related acreage and existing undeveloped discoveries.

    Indago has a significant amount of license acreage in the UAE and Oman,

    and is strategically well placed with strong political and working

    relationships in the region.

    COMPANY STRUCTURE

    Source: Indago Petroleum

    Silk RoutePetroleum Ltd

    Indago Petroleum Ltd

    Indago OmanBlock 30 Ltd

    OmanBlock 30

    RAKOnshore

    OmanBlock 17

    OmanBlock 31

     AtlantisHeritage

    PetroleumLG

    HeritagePetroleum

    OmanBlock 47

    OmanBlock 8

    Indago Al Khaleej Ltd

    Indago TechnicalServices Ltd

    IndagoOman Ltd

    21%

    100% 100%

    100% 100% 100%40%

    10%50% 10%50%

    100% 40%

    100% 100%

    69% 10%

    MeridianMiddle East Inv. Ltd

    Management

    BVI

    Cayman Islands

    Guernsey

    Bermuda

    Petroleum Concession Incl. Indago Interest

    Non Indago Companies

    4MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    T H E   C O M P A N Y

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    5 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

     NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS

    The Rt. Hon. Tim EggarCHAIRMAN, NON-EXECUTIVE

    The Rt. Hon. Tim Eggar Chairman, Non-Executive. Mr. Eggar worked

    at Hambros Bank before spending 8 years with European Banking

    Company. In 1979, he was elected to the UK parliament. From 1985,

    he served in several UK ministerial positions and ultimately was Minister 

    for Industry and Energy from 1992 to 1996. Since leaving government,he has served as a director of a number of companies, including Chairman

    of MW Kellogg Limited and of Agip UK Limited. He was Chief Executive

    Officer of Monument Oil and Gas plc. From 2000 to 2004, Mr. Eggar was

    Global Head of ABN AMRO's Global Energy Corporate Finance Group

    and, most recently, Chairman of UK Client Coverage. Mr. Eggar 

    is currently a Non-Executive Director of Anglo Asian Mining and Expro

    Group International. He is President of the Russo-British Chamber 

    of Commerce. He was the Chairman of the Anglo-Azeri Society.

    Barry GoldbergDIRECTOR

    Mr Goldberg is a principal of Genuity Capital Markets. Mr. Goldberg has

    extensive public company advisory experience. Prior to joining Genuity

    Capital Markets, from 1998 to 2005 Mr. Goldberg was a Managing Director 

    at BMO Nesbitt Burns where he was the Head of Restructuring. From

    1996 to 1998, Mr. Goldberg was a partner at the law firm Heenan Blaikie.

    From 1990 to 1996 he was a partner at the law firm Osler Hoskin and

    Harcourt. Mr. Goldberg has an undergraduate degree, a Bachelor of Civil

    Law, and a Bachelor of Common Law from McGill University.

    He is a member of the Ontario Bar.

    Rod PerryDIRECTOR

    Mr Perry is global head of Venture Capital for 3i plc. He is a member of the

    board of 3i Group plc and a member of both the Executive Committee and

    the Investment Committee. Between 1997 and 2001, Rod was responsible

    for the 3i investment business in Asia Pacific. Rod has a B.Sc. in Physics

    and is a member of the Institution of Electrical Engineers.

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    Paul Alexander Marchand DIRECTOR

    Mr. Marchand is General Counsel of Meridian Securities (UK) Limited.

    Mr. Marchand was formerly a partner of White & Case LLP,

    an international law firm. Prior to joining White & Case LLP, Mr. Marchand

    was a solicitor at Linklaters, an international law firm. Mr. Marchand

    is a member of the Law Society of England and Wales and holds

    a Bachelor of Civil Law degree from the University of Oxford (Corpus

    Christi College), an LL.B from the University of Stellenbosch and

    a Bachelor of Commerce and Masters in Taxation Laws from the

    University of the Witwatersrand.

    Dr Robert Charles WilliamsDIRECTOR

    Dr. Williams has degrees in geology from the Universities of Manchester 

    and Cambridge, England. He joined British Petroleum plc in early 1976,

    where he worked in their international staff. In 1987 he became General

    Manager and a Director of Oil Search Limited. In 1994, Dr. Williams

    formed and led the team that created Novus Petroleum Limited, Australia's

    largest IPO of an upstream oil and gas company. Dr. Williams was also the

    Non-Executive Chairman of Nido Petroleum Limited. Dr. Williams became

    a Fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors and is also

    a Fellow of the Geological Society. He has served on a number of industry

    committees in various countries. He is a member of the Advisory Board

    of the Energy and Geoscience Institute, a division of the University of Utah

    affiliated with Imperial College, London.

    Dr. David Lawson Bremner DIRECTOR

    Dr. Bremner joined British Petroleum plc in 1977, where he worked in their 

    international staff in London, Aberdeen, Alaska and San Francisco.

    He resigned from BP in 1984 to become Exploration Manager of Merlin

    Petroleum, a small start-up exploration company, based in San Francisco.

     After the sale of Merlin Petroleum in 1989 and a successful role

    in international petroleum consultancy, in 1995 he joined Monument Oil and

    Gas plc, based in London, as Exploration Manager. In 1997, Dr. Bremner 

    was appointed Exploration Director for Monument, a role which he held until

    that company was sold in 1999. Since that time Dr Bremner has been

    engaged in international petroleum consultancy with a particular emphasis

    on new business development and has been active in exploration

    consultancy in the domestic United States. Dr. Bremner holds an honours

    degree and a Ph.D. in geology from the University of Glasgow, Scotland.

    T H E   C O M P A N Y

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    7 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS

    Peter Sadler CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

    Mr. Sadler is a graduate of Oxford University and London Imperial College.

    He commenced work with Schlumberger in 1978 and after obtaining his

    MSc, he joined Unocal as a petroleum engineer. Prior to being appointed

    as the Head of Engineering in 1996 by Novus (the forerunner of Indago),

    Mr. Sadler worked with companies such as Texas Eastern, Exxon,Fletcher Challenge, Agip and Shell. In 2000 he was appointed by Novus

    as Regional Manager Middle East. Mr. Sadler also sat on the Executive

    Committee of Novus.

    John HurstEXPLORATION DIRECTOR

    Mr. Hurst obtained a B.Sc in geology from Hull University and a D. Phil and

    D.Sc in geology from Oxford University. In 1976 he joined the Greenland

    Survey mapping and exploration teams in Copenhagen. In 1983 he joined

    British Petroleum in London and was initially involved in regionalexploration projects. He subsequently became Manager of the Basin

    Studies Group. He resigned from BP in 1992 and joined Total in Paris

    as Exploration and Production Adviser in carbonate petroleum systems

    to the Exploration Manager. In 1996 he joined Novus as a roving

    Exploration Consultant. He has managed since 1999 Novus' (and now

    Indago's) Middle East exploration group.

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    8MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    OPERATING  STRUCTURE

    Peter Sadler and John Hurst are based in Dubai and are responsible for 

    the day to day operations of Indago.

    Indago employs 6 senior staff and several contractors.

    Indago Oman Limited on behalf of the Bukha Joint Venture Partners

    operates the offshore facilities.

     A Production Operations Manager, 3 technicians and an office assistant,

    all based in Ras Al Khaimah, are responsible for the day-to-day activities.

     A Petroleum Engineer located in the Muscat office is responsible for 

    reservoir and production monitoring.

    General management is provided by Indago's Dubai Office.

    T H E   C O M P A N Y

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    9 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    I NDAGO PETROLEUM ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE (SEPT 2005)

    Source: Indago Petroleum

    Peter Sadler Chief Executive Officer 

    John HurstExploration Director 

    Miguel SotoChief Financial Officer

    (acting)

    Shelley WatsonCommercial Manager 

     Appointed*WB Dev. Project Man.

    Jamie ParryRegional Ops Manager 

     Abduljalil Al FarsiOps ManagerOnshore Oman

    Paula Pedler Snr Petroleum Engineer 

    David Moore*Drilling Manager 

    Steve Hendry*Snr Drilling Engineer 

    Ben Hennessy*Snr Drilling Supervisor 

    Morris Ferris*Snr Completions

    & Welltest Engineer 

    Maria FernandezDrilling Sec

    Gary Morrison*Materials/Logistics

    Supervisor 

    John BrownOps Geologist

     AppointedSnr Geophysicist

    Thomas Lagler Technical Assistant

    Lois KapeGeologist

    Salim Al Salmi Accounts Administrator 

    Laith Albehacee Accounts Admin & PRO

     Azhar Ahsan Accounts Administrator 

    Daniela GarradSnr Geophysicist

    Mick McNaneyProduction Manager 

    Gracia ValladianExecutive Secretary& Office Co-ordinator 

    Joseph YueOffice Assistant

    Ramsey CabunocOps & Maint Tech

    Manuel Del RosarioOps & Maint Tech

    Hamid Al HajriOps & Maint Tech

    Halima Al Balushi Admin Secretary

    Khaled Al HashmiPRO

    Jacob PhilipOffice Assistant

    Employees: 26*Contractors: 6

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    10MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    CORPORATE  GOVERNANCE

    BOARD GOVERNANCE

     AUDIT  C OMMITTEE 

    The Audit Committee will be chaired by Barry Goldberg. The Audit

    Committee will be responsible for monitoring the quality of internal controls

    and for ensuring that the financial performance of the Company is properly

    monitored, controlled and reported on.

     R EMUNERATION  C OMMITTEE 

    The Remuneration Committee will be chaired by Tim Eggar. The

    Remuneration will review the performance of the executive Directors and

    set the scale and structure of their remuneration and the basis of their 

    service agreements with due regard to the interests of Shareholders.

     N OMINATION  C OMMITTEE 

    The Nomination Committee will be chaired by Tim Eggar. The Nomination

    Committee will be responsible for reviewing the structure, size and

    composition of the Board, preparing a description of the role, capabilities

    required for a particular appointment, identifying and nominating

    candidates to fill Board positions, as and when they arise.

    T H E   C O M P A N Y

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    11 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    HEALTH, SAFETY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

    Indago has inherited safety attitudes and operational documentation from

    its original Australian parent. Prudent operating practices along with

    fit-for-purpose, current oil spill contingency plans and environmental

    assessments will continue to be implemented in excess of existing

    government requirements. These procedures will be updated to reflect

    changing operational needs and industry practice.

    In addition, following Admission, the Company intends to adopt practices

    to comply, so far as practicable and appropriate for a company of its size,with the main provisions of the Combined Code.

    The Company has adopted a share dealing code, based on the Model

    Code for Directors and relevant employees in accordance with the AIM

    Rules and will take proper steps to ensure compliance by the Directors

    and those employees.

    CONTRACTING AND PROCUREMENT

    In Oman there is an oversight committee with the Ministry of Oil and Gas

    (MOG) which requires a tender exercise for all contract awards over 

    US$100,000.

    Following a pre-qualification phase, separate, sealed technical and

    commercial bids are sought and subsequently assessed by the

    committee. An evaluation is made by the operator and submitted for 

    approval to the MOG.

    This process provides good transparency and accountability. The

    committee has been flexible when confronted with logical justification.

     A similar internal procedure is carried out in jurisdictions which do not have

    prescribed government controls.

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    12MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    U NITED  ARAB  EMIRATES

    POLITICAL STRUCTURE

    The UAE is a federation of seven emirates - Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah,

     Ajman, Fujairah, Ras Al-Khaimah and Umm Al-Quwain. Political power 

    is concentrated in Abu Dhabi, which controls the vast majority of the UAE's

    economic and resource wealth. The two largest emirates - Abu Dhabi and

    Dubai - provide over 80% of the UAE's income.

    There is a high level of political and economic autonomy within the

    individual emirates. Each emirate has its own ruler, controls its own natural

    resources and regulates much of its own commercial activity. The rulers

    of the emirates each serve as members of the Federal Supreme Council

    of the UAE incorporating both legislative and executive powers.

    The Council ratifies federal laws and decrees, and plans general policy.

    The Council of Ministers or Cabinet is described in the Constitution as "the

    executive authority" of the federation is headed by the Prime Minister who

    is chosen by the President in consultation with his colleagues on the

    Supreme Council. In June 1996, the UAE's Federal National Council

    approved a permanent constitution for the country.

    The current head of state, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, took office

    in November 2004, following the death of his father Sheikh Zayed bin

    Sultan Al-Nahyan.

    T H E   U N I T E D   A R A B   E M I R AT E S A N D   O M A N

    The United Arab Emirates (UAE)

    and The Sultanate of Oman

    (Oman), enjoy a reputation for 

    peace, prosperity and economic

    development. Unlike many of 

    the nations in the region,

    political risk and major 

    acts of terrorism have been

    non-existent for decades.

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    13 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    ECONOMY

    The overall performance of the UAE's economy is heavily dependent

    on oil exports, which account for over 30% of total gross domestic product

    (GDP). Growth in real GDP was 6.4% in 2004, partially due to higher crude

    oil prices. For 2005, real GDP growth is projected to reach 6.5 %. The

    non-oil segment of the UAE's economy also is experiencing strong growth,

    particularly the petrochemicals and financial services sectors.

    The UAE is the 3rd largest economy in the Middle East with GDP of US$

    85.5 bn in 2004. The UAE's GDP has risen by 55% over the past 5 years,giving a growth rate of 10.9% per annum. The UAE has the highest per 

    capita income after Qatar in the Arab world largely due to its oil and gas

    reserves. Since the early 1970's, the UAE has transformed itself into

    a highly prosperous economy.

    The UAE is mid-way through a 20 year economic diversification plan away

    from primary oil production. Currently, there are several major projects

    underway throughout the Emirates in various sectors including refinery

    and petrochemicals, tourism, aviation and airports, re-export commerce,

    and telecommunications.

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    OMAN

    POLITICAL STRUCTURE

    Oman has been ruled by Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Busaidi since 1970,

    when he deposed his father in a bloodless coup. All power is concentrated

    in the hands of the Sultan, who also holds the top positions in the finance,

    defence, and foreign affairs ministries.

    Rules governing the succession to the throne were formalized in the 1996

    Basic Law. There is no Omani legislative assembly, though there are two

    consultative bodies called the Majlis Al-Dawla and the Majlis Al-Shura.

    Together, the two chambers form the Council of Oman. The Majlis

     Al-Dawla is appointed, while the Majlis Al-Shura is elected. The last

    election was held in October 2003.

    Constitutional reforms in Oman have been part of the ongoing process

    of modernisation. The Basic Statute of the State, announced in November 

    1996, deals with every aspect of State legislation and human rights.

    It guarantees equality of all citizens before the law, freedom of religion,

    freedom of speech, the free press, the right to a fair trial and the right

    to form nationally based associations. It lays down the framework for all future legislation and provides for the succession. The Basic Statute

    also barred ministers from holding interests in companies doing business

    with the government.

    T H E   U N I T E D   A R A B   E M I R AT E S A N D   O M A N

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    15 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    ECONOMY

    Oman's macroeconomic environment currently is strong, despite recent

    declines in oil production. Real GDP growth was 3.3% in 2004 and

    is projected to rise to 3.5% in 2005. Inflation was only 0.8% for 2004.

    Oman is heavily dependent on oil revenues, which account for around

    75% of the country's export earnings and almost 40% of its GDP.

    Due to the maturation of its oil fields and the volatility of oil prices, the

    Omani government has made diversifying the country's economy a toppolicy priority. In the 1980s, this effort hinged on developing a domestic

    manufacturing base, but more recent initiatives have focused on the

    exploitation of Oman's other natural resources, particularly its natural

    gas reserves.

    Oman has large mineral and metal deposits, including silica, dolomite,

    copper and gold. In September 2003, the government announced that

    it was reviving a five-year-old plan to build a US$ 2.5 bn aluminium

    smelter, which is to begin operation in 2007.

    Oman's efforts to diversify the economy also include "Omanization",

    a program designed to increase the percentage of Omani citizens working

    in the private sector. At present, Omani nationals constitute only 10%

    of private sector employment.

    The government also has continued to attempt to attract foreign

    investment, particularly in light industry, tourism, and electric power 

    generation. Foreign investment incentives include a 5-year tax holiday for 

    companies in certain industries, an income tax reduction for publicly held

    companies with at least 51% Omani ownership, and soft loans to finance

    new and existing projects. The process of privatizing some state-owned

    industries is to be accelerated under a decree issues in July 2004, which

    will allow foreign ownership up to 100% in power generation and water.

    Oman became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO)

    in October 2000. Movement continues towards an eventual customs union

    amongst the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states.

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    16MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    The key factors governing the growth of natural gas demand in the region are:

    • Increased use of natural gas for re-injection to boost declining

    oilfield production.

    • Numerous gas-export related industries such as LNG schemes and

    petrochemical plants are now competing with domestic natural gas

    requirements. In particular growth in LNG demand on the Indian

    subcontinent is expected to underpin new gas export schemes.

    • Substitution of natural gas for existing diesel-fired operations allows

    a greater proportion of refined products to be freed up for export.

    • Gas-intensive industries such as cement manufacture, aluminium

    smelting and ceramic manufacturing have grown to take advantage

    of the confluence of cheap energy, a benign tax environment, and

    an abundance of cheap labour.

    • Electricity demand has grown as economies have grown leading

    to corresponding growth in natural gas fired generation. The harsh

    climate requires extensive use of desalination and air conditioning

    which are energy hungry end-use applications.

     As such, despite the regions hydrocarbon resources there are

    opportunities to supply gas into its markets.

    There are shortfalls of natural gas supply evident today, and this

    is forecast to grow.

    R E G I O N A L   E N E R G Y   S U P P L Y A N D   D E M A N D

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    17 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    MEDIUM TERM OPPORTUNITIES

    There is an opportunity to supply gas to the Federal Electricity and Water 

     Authority (FEWA) power stations in the Northern Emirates which are

    burning significant volumes of liquid fuels due to a gas shortfall.

    Sharjah Electricity and Water Authority (SEWA) is expected to be short

    of gas by summer 2005, unless a new source materialises. This is due

    to declining gas production from the Sajaa field, which has also caused

    a reduction in the amount of Sharjah gas supplies to the growing Dubaimarket. SEWA is currently buying gas from Iran through a new UAE listed

    company, Dana Gas.

    Oman has developed its gas-based industry over the past few years and,

    although new gas fields and infrastructure are being developed, Qatari gas

    imports (via the Dolphin project) are required to make-up the shortfall that

    would otherwise occur within 2 to 4 years.

    LONGER  TERM OPPORTUNITIES

    In addition to these short to medium term opportunities, there

    is a requirement for a project such as Dolphin to supply large volumes

    of gas to the UAE and Oman by 2007.

     Although the Dolphin Gas project has the potential to flood the market

    in the northern emirates and Oman, actual gas deliveries are still many

    years away and the cost of delivered gas will have to compete with

    cheaper gas from local fields.

    CONCLUSION

    Oman will face difficulty in filling a 9 to 16 Tcf shortfall without importing

    relatively expensive Qatari gas via the UAE.

    Within the UAE gas demand is likely to grow further beyond the forecast

    8.2 Tcf deficit as soon as industrial users have security of supply. The

    estimated available market over the next 20 years is approximately 15 Tcf.

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    18MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

     NORTHERN ARABIAN GAS-CONDENSATE PLAY

    Indago has created a portfolio of drilling opportunities distributed along

    a trend which they call the "North Arabian Gas Condensate Play" (NAGP).

    Indago believes that its NAGP prospects have the scale to contain several

    Tcf of gas.

    The Oman mountain range stretches from the Musandam Peninsula

    in a southwards arc towards Muscat in Oman. These mountains have

    been created through the collision of the Arabian plate with an Island Arccomplex, and this has created a foreland thrust belt.

    Typically, mountain regions such as these, and in particular the buried

    frontal deformation zone, are natural focal points for hydrocarbon migration.

    The Omani mountains are to some extent an extension of the Iranian

    Zagros Mountains. They formed at the same time and have many of the

    same geological elements which are so productive in Iran.

    The western mountain foreland area has few oil and gas fields as it has

    been relatively under-explored.

    In the north there are a number of gas-condensate fields such as Bukha,

    West Bukha-Hengam offshore Oman/Iran, and the Saja'a, Moveyiid, Khaif,

    Margham and Khubai fields in onshore U.A.E. At the south of the mountain

    arc there are other gas-condensate discoveries such as Hafar, Al Sahwa,

    Nadir and Hamrat Duru south-west of Muscat.

     Although separated by hundreds of km these fields are similar in terms

    of the geological elements that make them work. Indago believes that they

    are part of a continuous geological system that stretches along the

    mountain front. If the petroleum systems throughout the entire length

    of the fold belt are the same, then there is likely to be more gas awaitingdiscovery in the under explored area between the proven fields in the

    north and the south.

    A S S E T   P R O F I L E

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    This geological insight is nothing new and many of the major oil

    companies that explored the Middle East recognised that this was

    a potentially prolific gas play. But there was no economic incentive

    to explore for gas at that time and the acreage lay dormant. Recently the

    economic incentives for gas exploration have changed. Many of the Gulf 

    countries now consume large quantities of natural gas and are prepared

    to pay for the security of additional long-term supplies.

    Source: Indago Petroleum

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    OVERVIEW

    There are 4 concessions in Oman and 1 in the UAE in which Indago holds

    working interests.

    Indago Oman Limited (IOL) holds a 40% working interest and

    operatorship in Oman Block 8 which contains the Bukha and West Bukha

    fields. Other partners in this block include LG (50%) and Heritage (10%).

    LG is a large Korean company and Heritage is a Canadian listed oil and

    gas company.

    IOL holds a 40% working interest and operatorship in Oman Block

    17. Other partners in this block include Atlantis (50%) and Heritage (10%).

     Atlantis was originally formed as an E&P subsidiary of the seismic

    company PGS, but is now owned by the Chinese company Sinochem.

    IOL and Indago Al Khaleej Limited (IAKL) hold a 100% working interest

    and operatorship in all other blocks.

    LEGAL T ITLE

    There are a number of agreements in place between the relevant

    government authorities and the Indago group of companies.

    These include:

    • The Exploration and Production Sharing Agreements (EPSA's) which

    detail the fiscal terms and work requirements for the Omani blocks;

    • The Joint Operating Agreements (JOAs) which detail the conduct of joint

    venture operations for blocks where there is more than one partner.

    • A Heads of Agreement for gas sales from the West Bukha field into the

    northern emirate of Ras Al Khaimah.

    A S S E T   P R O F I L E

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    EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO PROFILE

     An overview of the Indago portfolio, which sets out the Expected Ultimate

    Recoverable Reserves as agreed by Petronel, the independent technical

    consultant, and which form the basis of our valuation of the company,

    is set out below.

    I NDAGO PETROLEUM LTD COMPETENT PERSON'S R EPORTI NDEPENDENT VOLUMETRIC ESTIMATE OF ASSETS

    Risked Expected Remaining Hydrocarbon Recovery Economics (100%) Economics ( IPL share)Unrisked Unrisked Risked Unrisked RiskedRecovery 100% 100% IPL Share IPL Share NPV EMV NPV EMV

    Mi d Mi d POS POS Sal es Gas Co nd +L PG Sal es Gas Co nd +L PG NPV (10%) EMV (10%) NPV (10%) EMV (10%)Block Asset (bcf) (mmb) Prospect WetGas (bcf) (mmb) (bcf) (mmb) (US$m) (US$m) (US$m) (US$m)

    Block 8 Bukha 52.4 3.4 1.00 1.00 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.8 10.5 9.7 4.2 3.9

    Block 8 West Bukha (Oman) 226.5 27.7 0.70 1.00 65.7 19.0 26.3 2.8 103.0 68.4 41.2 27.4

    RAK Hagil 1,586.9 233.7 0.20 0.65 330.0 32.5 330.0 32.5 1,044.2 128.1 1,044.2 128.1

    RAK Hagil Lias/Trias 780.1 117.0 0.12 0.65 95.5 9.5 95.5 9.5 557.6 38.2 557.6 38.2

    RAK Ash Sham (part) 757.7 109.4 0.09 0.50 34.1 4.9 34.1 4.9 325.7 4.1 325.7 4.1

    RAK Digdaga 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Block 17 Ash Sham/Ghumdah 480.8 69.4 0.09 0.50 8.9 1.3 3.5 0.5 127.2 5.1 50.9 2.0

    Block 31 Jebel Hafit (Oman) 2,058.9 310.3 0.29 0.75 283.6 28.4 283.6 28.4 1,235.4 261.5 1,235.4 261.5

    Block 31 Qumaira 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Block 31 Jebel Wa'Bah 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Block 47 Izz 378.9 54.3 0.24 0.20 9.5 1.4 9.5 1.4 198.3 3.5 198.3 3.5

    Block 47 Izz Deep 83.4 0.9 0.15 0.20 6.9 0.3 6.9 0.3 77.87 0.5 77.9 0.5

    Block 47 Adam 439.9 68.0 0.19 0.70 31.1 4.6 29.5 4.3 238.5 22.1 226.6 21.0Block 47 Sadood 67.5 10.4 0.11 0.20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.8 -6.0 26.8 -6.9

    Block 47 Kabshat 54.6 7.5 0.57 0.10 19.4 0.4 19.4 0.4 33.3 0.1 33.3 0.1

    Block 47 Dham 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Total 6,968 1012 884.6 92.3 838.3 85.9 3,951.5 541.4 3,795.2 490.3

    Source: Technical Consultant

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    PRODUCTION

    BUKHA

    Source: Indago Petroleum

    Indago is the operator of Bukha, Oman's only offshore producing field.

    Bukha has produced since 1994 but is now in decline.

     As estimated by Petrenel, the field contains an initial GIIP of 326 Bcf.

    Petrenel estimate that proven plus probable reserves of gas remain

    at 48.19 Bcf, 4.60 MMbbl condensate and 1.0 MMbbl of LPG.

    The Bukha field fluids are contained in two zones known as the Thamama

    and the Mauddud. Both reservoirs are fractured carbonates which

    augment permeability and provide good flow rates from otherwise lowporosity-permeability rocks. The reservoir has little aquifer support and

    depletes as a normal retrograde condensate field, with condensate

    dropping out in the reservoir as pressure declines and hence decreasing

    the condensate-gas ratio with time.

    A S S E T   P R O F I L E

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    This field derives its revenue from the sale of condensate and LPG.

    Bukha 1, a sub-sea completion, is connected back to the platform

    by a 1,186 metre, 6-inch flexible flow line with separate service and control

    umbilical. Bukha 2 is a surface completion.

    Produced fluids are exported from the platform by natural drive,

    via a 34km, 16 inch diameter pipeline to the Ras Al Khaimah Gas

    Commission (RAKGAS) processing facility, located at Khor Khwair in Ras

     AI Khaimah, UAE. No processing of produced fluids is carried out on the

    platform as this is all carried out at the RAKGAS plant.

    The field is mature and on a predicted decline, nevertheless it is expected

    to continue producing for 5 years or more. The projected economic limit

    of the field continues to be extended with the prevailing high oil price

    environment. Current end of field life is expected in 2011.

    Production, net to Indago during 2004 averaged 870 barrels

    of condensate and LPG per day and 13.9 MMscfd of gas. It is fiscally

    linked to West Bukha (in the same EPSA) and hence 90% of the liquids

    revenue after operating cost is available to recover costs incurred through

    the development of West Bukha.

    Bukha is not material in the context of the valuation of Indago.

    Nevertheless, as an asset operated by Indago it has established the

    credibility of the company in the region.

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    DEVELOPMENT

    WEST BUKHA

    Source: Indago Petroleum

    West Bukha is the Omani portion of the West Bukha-Hengam field that

    straddles the Oman/Iran border in the Straits of Hormuz. The field

    is located within Oman Block 8 which also contains the existing Bukha

    field 22 km to the south-east.

    The Bukha Joint Venture (BJV) has been given permission by the

    government of Oman to develop the field, initially through a single well and

    wellhead jacket tied in through Bukha.

    The wellhead platform will have 6 available well slots to ensure that further 

    upside could be accessed if suitable drilling locations can be identified.

    A S S E T   P R O F I L E

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    25 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

     As estimated by Petrenel, West Bukha contains an estimated initial

    GIIP of 525 Bcf and CIIP of 54 MMbbl.

    West Bukha development is scheduled to commence as soon as possible

    with drilling of phase I commencing in late 2005. First gas is scheduled for 

    late 2007 and phase II continuing in 2008.

    Development costs are estimated at around US$ 62 m for a single well

    development and US$ 88 m for 2 wells. A successful, 2 well development,

    if the simulation profile is achieved, would using NPV10 have a value

    of approximately US$120 m, equivalent to US$48 m net to Indagoat a WTI price of US$ 30/bbl.

    It is proposed that the development costs will be two-thirds funded from

    project finance, though a more conservative estimate would be 50%

    project finance. The development plan for phase 1 consists of:

    • Drilling and testing of 1 development well, West Bukha-2 (US$20.4 m)

    • Installation of wellhead platform and pipeline tied to Bukha (US$34.8 m)

    • Tie back and completion of West Bukha-2 (US$6.2 m)

    The main producing formation, the Mauddud - Mishrif is expected to bea low porosity fractured limestone and hence the main risk is reservoir 

    effectiveness. Break even reserves are as estimated by management,

    25 Bcf at an assumed WTI oil price of US$24/bbl for the initial

    development of phase I.

    Based on the operating expectations of management West Bukha

    is considered to be a robust project.

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    PROSPECTS

    BLOCK 31

     J  EBEL  H  AFIT 

    Source: Indago Petroleum

     At Jebel Hafit, Indago is targeting estimated mean reserves of 2.7 Tcf 

    of gas, and 344 MMboe of condensate and LPG. This is a significant prospect.

    The Jebel Hafit prospect, named after the prominent mountain that

     juts out of the desert above this prospect, straddles the border between

    Oman and Abu Dhabi. The geological interpretation shows that the

    mountain is actually the surface expression of a deeper structure.

    It is a compressional anticline beneath a prominent surface mountain.

    The difficulty in readying this prospect for drilling arose from the former lack

    of interest in gas and the necessity of organising co-operation between the

    UAE and Omani governments to assemble the technical data, including

    conducting seismic surveys, across an international border.

    A S S E T   P R O F I L E

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    Nevertheless, in 2003 Indago acquired state-of-the-art seismic data which

    confirmed the size and integrity of the subsurface structure. Jebel Hafit

    appears to be geologically analogous to the producing Margham and

    Sajaa field to the north in UAE.

    The imaging from the reprocessed seismic data is fair. The main reservoir 

    target is in the Cretaceous (Natih/Shuaiba) carbonates at circa 5,000m

    depth. A gas condensate seep has been discovered by Indago field

    geologists on the mountain. Indago is targeting two working reservoirs,

    Mauddud and Thamama.

    Indago expects to be able to spud a US$ 24.8 well, including testing,

    at Jebel Hafit in September/October 2006.

    Source: Indago Petroleum

    Structural Cross Section a-a’; North Jabal Hafit and the adjacent Oman (UAE) Foreland Basin

      by Daniel SchellingScale = 1:50,000

    (No VerticalExaggeration)

    Kn

    Knu

    Ksk

    Kl

    Js

    Pk

    Ev

    Kf 

    Haw

    Thrust Fault

    NormalFault

    Seismic reflectors

    25  Apparent dip inline of section

    60  Apparent dip ofoverturned bedsin line of section

    L E G E N D

    SUB -THRUST STRATIG RA PHIC SECTIO N

    Undifferentiated SumeiniGroup and Hawasina Complex (Permian-Cretaceous)

    Mayhah Fm., slope facies limestones (Middle-Upper Jurassic)

    JabalWasa Fm. conglomerates ? (Upper Triassic)

    Fiqa Fm., including "Juweiza" Member (Upper Cretaceous)

    Natih Fm. (Wasia Group) (Middle Cretaceous)

    Nahr Umr Fm. (Wasia Group) (Middle Cretaceous)

    Shuaiba and Kharaib Fms. (Kahmah Group) (Lower Cretaceous)

    Lekhwair Fm. (Kahmah Group) (Lower Cretaceous/Upper Jurassic )

    Khsr  Habshan Fm., SalilFm., and Rayda Chert (Lower Cretaceous/Upper Jurassic )

     Sahtan Group (Jurassic)

    MahilFm. (Triassic)

    Khuff Fm. and Haushigroup, undifferentiated (Permo-Carboniferous)

    Evaporites (Infracambrain-Cambrian)

    Undifferentiated Precambrian, including basement

    Haima Group (Paleozoic)

    TRm

    HAWA SINA /SUM EIN I A CCRETIO NA RY WEDG E

    Qal

    Tf 

    Ts

    Taj

    Tdu

    Tdm

    Tdl

    Tr 

    Tur 

    Ks

    PO ST-EM PL A CEM ENT SEQ UENCES

    Undifferentiated Cretaceous, SumeiniGroup "slope" sedimentsKu

    Jmh

    Twc

    PCu

    Pzh

    a

    S 68…

    30

    30

    20

    80 80

    Sumeini Accretionary Wedge

    FrontalSumeini Accretionary Wedge

    SumeiniFrontalThrust

    Seismicno-data zone

     J.

        U   p     p   e     r

        L  o   w  e   r

     North

    SEISMICLINEIQS-54

     

    Zone of DuctileDeformation

    OMANMOUNTAINS

    Note: Mesozoic stratigraphy changes across interpretedTriassic extensionalfaul t and Jurassic-Cretaceous

    structuralhinge-line

    Carbonate PlatformMargin?

    Carbonate PlatformMargin?

    a’N 68…

    Js

    Twc

    Kn

    Knu

    Ksk

    Kl

    Js

    Pk

    Khsr 

    TRm

    PCu

    K n

    K nu 

    K sk 

    K l 

    J s 

    P k 

    K hsr 

    T R m

    K n

    K nu

    K sk 

    K sk 

    K l 

    K l 

    Js

    P k 

    Khsr 

    K hsr 

    T Rm

    TRm

    Ev?

    Ev?

    Jmh

    SumSum

    Ku

    Pk

    Pzh

    PCu

    PCuEv?

    Ev?

    Kf 

    Kf 

    Kf 

    K f 

    Kf 

    Kf 

     T s n T a j

    Tf 

     T d u

     T d m

     T d l Tr

     K s T u r

    TsnTaj

    T   a   j   

    Tdu

    Tdm

    Tdl

    Tdl

    Tdu

    Tr 

    Ks

    Tur 

    Tdu

       T d  m

       T d  l

      T r  T  u  r

      K  f

    Qal Qal

    Tf 

    Qal

    Pz h

    P z h 

    Pzh

      K s

    Structural Cross-Section a-a’;

    North Jabal Hafitby

    Daniel Schelling

    Scale= 1:50,000

    StructuralGeologyInternational,LLC576 E South TempleSalt LakeCity,Utah 84102(801)322-1685

    Str uctur al Geology of Ex plor ation B lock 3 1 ;

    Centr al Oman Thr ust Belt

    Enclosure # 5

    O c t o b e r , 2 0 0 3

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    RAS AL KHAIMAH

     H  AGIL

    Source: Indago Petroleum

    Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) is the northern most Emirate of the United Arab

    Emirates. Currently the Emirate has limited oil and gas fields over which it can

    lay claim, and is dependent upon its neighbours for both gas and oil. However,

    Indago has a very promising prospect in Ras Al Khaimah called Hagil.

    The Hagil prospect contains 6 target reservoir horizons in two closures

    on separate thrust sheets. In the hanging wall of the Rahaba Thrust the Lias

    (Neyriz), Milaha, Upper Bih and Lower Bih (Khuff) are prospective, whereas

    in the hanging wall of the Tibat Thrust only the Upper Bih and Lower Bih are

    expected to be present. A well location has been chosen such that it will

    intersect all of these horizons in a reasonably crestal position.

     At Hagil, according to Petrenel, Indago is targeting estimated meanreserves of 2 Tcf of gas, and 294 MMboe of condensate and LPG. This

    is also a significant prospect.

    Seismic was acquired over Hagil in 2003 and this confirmed the presence

    of a significant structure. The geological interpretation suggests that Hagil

    is a faulted dip closed structure at Permo-Trias level, which is beneath the

    main thrust front. The Trap imaging has been much improved by recent

    specialist reprocessing of the seismic. The main reservoir target is Khuff 

    carbonates which will be encountered first at 2,700 m and again at 4,200 m.

    The US$ 16.7 m, including testing, Hagil well is expected to spud at the startof October 2005.

    A S S E T   P R O F I L E

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    29 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

     ASH  S  HAM 

    Source: Indago Petroleum

     Ash Sham is located 4 km north-east of the Hagil prospect. It is a dip closed

    anticline above a thrust fault. The anticline is exposed at surface and

    2 seismic lines located over the crest confirm its subsurface expression.

    The well will target lower Permian clastic reservoirs at 2 km. Although

    these reservoirs have not been tested locally they are important

    hydrocarbon bearing reservoirs in offshore Abu Dhabi and onshore Oman.

    The younger reservoirs in the exposed surface anticline were once

    gas condensate bearing. Due to uplift and exposure the hydrocarbons

    have dissipated.

     At Ash Sham, Indago is targeting an estimated gas recovery of 655 Bcf, and

    80 MMbbl condensate. Indago expects to start drilling the US$ 5.4 m,

    including testing, Ash Sham well in August 2006 and will use the same drill

    team as used at Izz.

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    BLOCK 47

     A DAM  & I  ZZ 

    Source: Indago Petroleum

    A S S E T   P R O F I L E

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     A DAM 

     Adam is 40 km from the PDO Cambrian discovery at Kauther-1 which

    flowed at 49 MMscfd/4,000 bpd.

    This prospect is a Cambrian closure beneath small Cretaceous gas pool.

    The reservoir target is Cambrian Amin sandstone formation at circa

    4,200 m depth.

    Indago expects to spud a US$ 11.4 m well, including testing, at Adam

    in May 2006.

     I  ZZ 

    Further to the south in Block 47 are a number of prospects where

    2D seismic was acquired in 2003.

    One of these is the Izz prospect which has a more subtle surface

    expression which is best seen on satellite imagery. The acquisition

    of 2D seismic has confirmed the presence of a large buried structure.

    Izz is a Cretaceous closure over a salt pillow updip from the Khatmah

    gas discovery.

    The reservoir target is Cretaceous Natih/Sabsab carbonates at circa

    2,500m depth.

    There are secondary targets in the Jurassic Hafina and Permian Khuff carbonates.

    Indago expects to spud a US$ 10.2 m well, including testing, at Izz either 

    before or after drilling starts at Hafit.

    Source: Indago Petroleum

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    LEADS

    Indago has an inventory of Leads some of which are nearly advanced

    to Prospect status; others are still in the early phase of definition. These

    Leads are briefly described below.

    RAK

    U NRISKED R ECOVERABLE

     D IGDAGA

    This Lead is a Hagil analogue. It is of comparable size and focused on the

    same reservoirs. There is a weak methane seep on top of it. It is located

    30 km from Sajaa, the largest gas condensate field in the region. There

    is seismic covering the west side. This lead has been worked up to the

    stage where seismic now needs to be shot on the eastern limb to complete

    the definition of the Lead.

     As the seismic over the this lead is not complete, it has not been included

    in the valuation.

    Depth Gas (bcf) Cond (mmb)

    Digdaga 2,500 565* 19*

    Source: M. Horn & Co.

    A S S E T   P R O F I L E

    * Management's preliminary estimates.

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    33 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    Source: Indago Petroleum

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    BLOCK 31

    U NRISKED R ECOVERABLE

    QUMAIRA

    This Lead is 30 km east-south-east of Jebel Hafit. It is cored by Cambrian

    salt which has associated bitumen and condensate bearing rocks. Indago

    has seismic on this Lead, which is currently being processed. Surface

    geology indicates a large closure. Seismic processing has proven

    challenging because of image problems derived from the signal/noise

    ratio. Results, however, are due in the next 3 months. If the seismic does

    not clearly define the crest of the structure, then alternative methods

    of definition will be required.

    It has not been included in the valuation.

     J  EBEL  W  A B AH 

    This Lead is a very large surface anticline cored by an undoubted deeper 

    structure. There is currently no seismic for this Lead, though the seismic

    scouting is complete. A decision now needs to be made as to whether 

    to shoot seismic. The decision to shoot seismic at Jebel WaBah will be

    driven by the experience at Qumaira. If the problem with the signal/noise

    ratio can not be satisfactory resolved, then the expense of seismic will not

    be justified and other techniques of definition will be considered.

     As there is no seismic over this Lead, it has not been included in the valuation.

    Depth Gas (bcf) Cond (mmb)

    Qumaira 2,000 716* 37*

    Jebel WaBah 2,500 835* 44*

    Yanqul 2,500 871* 45*

    Source: M. Horn & Co.

    A S S E T   P R O F I L E

    * Management's preliminary estimates.

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    35 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    Y  ANQUL

    This Lead is located north-east of WaBah. There is structural relief 

    at a depth of circa 2km. What is required is a determination of the extent

    of the closure.

     As there is no seismic over this Lead, it has not been included in the valuation.

    Source: Indago Petroleum

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    36MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    BLOCK 47

    U NRISKED R ECOVERABLE

    S  ADOOD

    This Lead is located 10km north-east of the Hamrat Duru gas field. The

    surface geology indicates that there is a sub-surface structure, and this

    is supported by the reconnaissance seismic. Several new seismic lines

    are now required to map the closure. This is expected to be a dry gas lead.

    K  ABSHAT 

    Indago believes that Kabshat is a satellite to the Hamrat Duru gas field.

    It is covered by seismic. It could be drilled now and therefore technically

    is a prospect, but Indago wants to shoot one seismic line to determine the

    position of any saddle between it and Hamrat Duru. As such, it has been

    valued as a Lead.

     D HAM 

    The surface geology indicates the presence of a large sub-surface

    structure. Offset seismic 20 km to the south indicates that this is good

    sub-surface imaging terrain. The seismic line scouting has finished, and

    a decision to shoot seismic is pending. The signal to noise issue

    is mitigated somewhat by benign surface conditions.

     As there is no seismic over this Lead, it has not been included in the valuation.

    Depth Gas (bcf) Cond (mmb)

    Sadood 2,200 395* 0*

    Kabshat 900 50* 0*

    Dham 2,500 575* 0*

    Izz Deep 3,900 260* 0*

    Source: M. Horn & Co.

    A S S E T   P R O F I L E

    * Management's preliminary estimates.

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    37 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

     I  ZZ  D EEP

    This Lead is covered by seismic. The seismic is currently being

    reprocessed for a better image at deeper horizons. It is a Khuff play, one

    of the main gas bearing reservoirs in the Middle East. Two nearby wells

    have gas and bitumen in the Khuff. The Yibal Khuff field is some 40 km

    to the south-west.

    Source: Indago Petroleum

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    38MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    OPPORTUNITY

    COMMERCIAL ACTIVITIES AND MARKETING

    Indago, in parallel with its exploration and development activity,

    will undertake several commercial initiatives:

    • Negotiation of a Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) for West Bukha gas with

    RAKGAS.

    • Negotiation of a cost sharing Memorandum of Understanding for Jebel

    Hafit with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).

    A S S E T   P R O F I L E

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    39 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    NEW VENTURE OPPORTUNITIES

    Indago is also currently pursuing several possible new venture

    opportunities within its area of focus.

    The Board has agreed to date expenditure of US$ 2.37 m. However, if any

    of the new projects identified below come to fruition, further expenditure

    proposals will need to be put to the Board and they will need to be

    appraised in the light of available funds.

    There are four possible new ventures which have been identified and include:

    • Acquisition of a block contiguous with Indago's existing acreage.

    If Indago were to acquire this asset, it would expect to spend US$ 5 m

    in the next 2 years on its development. This spend will cover signature

    bonus, seismic reprocessing and ancillary studies. At this stage, from

    what is known of this asset, a 75% probability of a drillable structure

    is predicted.

    • Acquisition of a 2nd contiguous block* from a competitor. This block

    has proven reserves. The cost of acquisition and the drilling of one well

    is estimated to cost up to US$ 4.5 m. The block has sunk costs

    of US$ 34 m which can be recovered when development and

    production from a field commences.

    • In joint venture with the Ras Al Khaimah government, Indago intends

    to spend approximately US$ 750,000 to reprocess seismic and

    to produce a development plan for a discovered field that already has

    3 wells drilled in it. A well on structure has already tested for oil and gas

    condensate. Indago expects to be a 40% joint venture partner if any

    development subsequently were to take place. The fiscal terms

    as outlined are attractive.

    • Evaluation of a "farm-in". This will cost US$ 100,000. The budgeted

    "farm-in" evaluation is one of several evaluation opportunities.

    * Indago is in the process of concludingan agreement with Anadarko for thepurchase of their interests in Block 30,which lies immediately to the south-westof Block 47. This block has not beenassigned any value. The block containsfour comparatively small gasdiscoveries in Cretaceous carbonates.

     Anadarko has stated that thediscoveries have potential to holdaround 300 Bcf of sales gas reservesin total, though this is probablyan over-optimistic estimate. Thereis some uncertainty as to whether thediscoveries might be commercialas they stand currently. Indago mayseek to commercialise this modest gasresource through integration withpotential future gas discoveries in thearea. Evaluation of this opportunitywill require a detailed re-evaluationof the discoveries.

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    40MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    WORK  SCOPE

    Key objectives of the Budgeted Work Programme until the end of 2007 include:

    • Phase 1 development of the West Bukha field.

    This is currently underway. The cost of drilling the well is circa US$ 20 m

    with further development costs of US$ 40 m, giving a total cost

    of approximately US$ 60 m. Indago's share is 40% of these costs. Indago

    believes that it can project finance 50% of its share of the costs, giving

    a cash requirement of US$ 12.0 m.

    • Drilling 5 wells in the Northern Arabian Gas-condensate Play.

    HAGIL

    This well is due to spud at the start of October 2005. Drilling will be for 

    82 days plus 1 month testing. Drilling costs are US$ 11.8 m, and testing

    is expected to cost US$ 4.9 m, giving a total cost for the well

    of US$ 16.7 m. Hagil is being drilled first is due to contractual

    commitments and the prospect location being located only 2.5 km from the

    RAKGAS plant. In the event of success, Hagil could be brought on-stream

    through the currently underutilised RAKGAS facilities in as little as a year.

    It is conservatively estimated that first gas could be achieved in 2007.

    ADAM

    Indago aims to spud Adam in May 2006. Drilling and testing will take

    4 months. Drilling costs are US$ 8.4 m, and testing is expected to cost

    US$ 3 m, giving a total cost for the well of US$ 11.4 m.

    JEBEL HAFIT

    Indago aims to spud Jebel Hafit in September/October 2006. Thisis a deep well and the intention is to use the rig used at Adam. Drilling and

    testing will take 6 months. Drilling costs are US$ 17.2 m, and testing

    is expected to cost US$ 7.6 m, giving a total cost for the well of US$ 24.8 m.

    W O R K   S C O P E   & F I N A N C I N G

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    IZZ

    Indago may start Izz in April 2006 or in the period between the spudding

    of Adam and Jebel Hafit. Drilling will take 30 days and testing will take

    5 days. Drilling costs are US$ 6 m, and testing is expected to cost

    US$ 4.2 m, giving a total cost for the well of US$ 10.2 m.

    ASH SHAM

    Indago expects to start drilling Ash Sham in August 2006 and will use the

    same rig as used at Izz. Drilling will take 30 days and testing will take5 days. Drilling costs are US$ 3.5 m, and testing is expected to cost

    US$ 1.9 m, giving a total cost for the well of US$ 5.4 m.

    The gross budgeted value of the Exploration drill programme is therefore

    US$ 69.1 m including roll-up testing.

    In addition, an appraisal well for Hagil is expected to be drilled

    at an estimated cost of US$ 16.9 m.

    If this appraisal well is taken into account the total prospect drill budget

    is US$ 86 m.

    • Shoot seismic over leads so as to turn them into mature prospects

    ready to drill, by late 2006, early 2007.

    The total budgeted cost of this programme is US$ 5.5 m.

    • New ventures: secure additional prospective acreage in the United

     Arab Emirates and Oman.

     As discussed in the previous section, the objective is to acquire acreage

    which form part of the same play fairway. Indago will also target existing

    discoveries of a marginal nature that might be commercialised through

    applied technology or synergies with its existing portfolio.

    The total budgeted cost of this programme is US$ 10.3 m.

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    42MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    FINANCING

    WORK SCOPE BUDGET

    The gross value of the work programme as currently budgeted

    is approximately US$ 125 m. This will be reduced by US$ 23 m of cash

    derived from the Burkha assets, giving a net capital required of approximately

    US$ 102 m at the time of the IPO for the budgeted Work Scope.

    Indago will also require financing for general corporate purposes, including

    the evaluation of other opportunities, which has been provisionally estimated

    at US$ 2.4 m, giving an estimated financing need of approximately US$ 105 m.

    Meridian provided a bridging facility to cover inter-company debt owed

    to Medco at the time of the acquisition. This facility will need to be repaid

    at the time of the IPO. There is also a contingent loan facility provided

    by Meridian, which has been used to fund exploration expenditure and

    general corporate purposes since the acquisition, which will also need

    to be repaid. The total amount to be repaid is US$ 34 m.

     As such, the total amount of money that Indago may need

    is approximately US$ 139 m.

    PROBABILITY ADJUSTED BUDGET

    The Work Scope Budget is one that assumes that all drilled prospects are

    successful, and that all exploration work results in a decision to proceed

    to the next phase. It also assumes that all new venture negotiation,

    are successfully concluded.

    This result is unlikely.

    Therefore, the Work Scope Budget has been adjusted to reflect a "most

    likely" cash requirement in terms of drilling. It has postponed the decision

    on the Hagil appraisal well until a more informed decision can be taken.

     A similar approach has been taken to the new venture opportunities,

    where the budget reflects that spend which has current Board approval.

     As such, the Probability Adjusted Budget shows a capital requirement

    of US$ 87.45 m.

     As there is a reasonable probability that Indago may need additional

    capital to complete its Work Scope, Meridian has agreed to provide

    a 3 year "back-up" loan facility of US$20 m, at a 10% interest rate, with

    a 1% commitment fee on the undrawn amount.

    W O R K   S C O P E   & F I N A N C I N G

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    43 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    Work Scope Probability

    Project Budget Adjusted Budget

    West Bukha - Phase 1 US$ 23.53 m* US$11.73 m**

    Exploration US$ 69.1 m US$54.76 m†

    Hagil US$ 16.7 m

     Adam US$ 11.4 m

    Jebel Hafit US$ 24.8 m

    Izz US$ 10.2 m

     Asham US$ 5.4 m

    Hagil appraisal well US$ 16.9 m††

    Leads - seismic shoots US$ 5.5 m US$5.0 m‡

    New Ventures US$ 10.3 m US$2.37 m‡‡

    Gross Budget US$ 125.33 m US$ 73.86 m

    - Bukha revenue US$ 22.92 m. US$ 22.92 m•

    Net Budget US$ 102.41m US$ 50.94 m

    + General Corporate US$ 2.41 m US$2.41 m

    + Debt Repayment US$ 34.10 m US$ 34.10 m

    Capital Required: US$ 138.92 m. US$ 87.45 m

    Source: M. Horn & Co.

    * Not assuming any financing.Net, after contribution first half 2005.

    ** Assuming 50% financing.

    † Not all the wells will be successful. As such, not all will be tested.The budget has been adjusted on aprobability basis.

    †† The decision to drill an appraisal wellin Hagil is still dependant on theoutcome of further appraisal work. If adecision is made to proceed itsfinancing will be covered by theMeridian back-up loan facility.

    ‡  As approved by the Board.

    ‡‡ As approved by the Board.

    • Revenue is based on the forwardcurve. It is US$ 11.15 at a flat WTIUS$ 30/bbl.

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    44MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    The risk factors listed below are some important risks, however the list

    is not exhaustive, and investors must assure themselves that taking these

    risk factors into account, that Indago is an appropriate investment

    considering their specific requirements.

    POLITICAL RISK

    The countries of Oman and the UAE are considered to be the most stable

    in the region. Nevertheless, there are the political risks associated with

    any developing economy. In addition, there are well known regional

    political risks.

    OIL & GAS INDUSTRY

    The Oil & Gas Industry is subject to operating hazards, economic

    changes, industry competition, and operating cost variations. Indago's

    activities are speculative by their nature and involve a high degree of risk.

    The Oil and Gas business is subject to a number of factors beyond

    Indago's control. An adverse change in any of these factors could result

    in the Indago not meeting its business objectives.

    REGULATION

    Indago may become subject to burdensome Governmental regulation and

    permit requirements. Exploration, development and the extraction of oil

    and gas are subject to extensive laws, regulations and permitting.

    No assurances can be given that any licenses, permits or approvals that

    may be required will be given or that existing ones will not be revoked.

    RESERVE QUANTITIES

    Success of the company will depend on the discovery of reserves

    in commercially viable quantities. Substantial expenditures are required

    to establish reserves through drilling and analysis. No assurance canbe given that the contained minerals will be discovered in sufficient

    quantities to justify commercial operations or that the funds required for 

    development can be obtained on a timely basis.

    R I S K S

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    EXPLORATION RISK

    From a technical perspective exploration risk can be broken down into

    separate geological components. The main categories of geological

    risking are reservoir, seal, source/timing and trap. Of these, source/timing

    represents the lowest risk as there are at least 3 documented source rocks

    throughout the fold belt and numerous fields and discoveries. Seal and

    reservoir presence has been addressed through extensive stratigraphic

    and structural work. The 2D seismic acquisition programme conducted

    in 2003 and early 2004 aimed to address the uncertainties with trap

    definition. The programme has returned highly promising results in whatis a very difficult seismic acquisition environment.

    The greatest risk common to all prospects is that of reservoir quality.

    It is very difficult to predict the porosity and in particular permeability of the

    reservoir ahead of drilling. Reservoir quality will remain a risk that

    is a challenge to reduce. However, all offset discoveries in the different

    reservoirs produce sufficient volumes per well to suggest that the

    prospects should be equally effective.

    INERT COMPONENTS IN THE GAS COMPOSITION

    The Tibat discovery by Indago contained a high proportion of nitrogen

    which increased the potential development costs to a level that rendered

    it sub-commercial. These prospects as they are significantly larger, will not

    necessarily be sub-commercial if they contain a similar volume of inert gas.

    DEVELOPMENT RISK

    Many aspects of development risk are similar to exploration risk but are

    commensurately lower due to the well control that is available. With West

    Bukha the main risks is again reservoir quality and effectiveness. At West

    Bukha, reservoir quality has been addressed using a combination

    of geological facies modelling and 3D seismic attribute analysis.Development well locations have been chosen not simply on the basis of 

    structural location but where reservoir development is predicted to be best.

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    46MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    PRODUCTION RISK

    The Bukha field has been producing steadily for over a decade and there

    have been no major surprises in the production performance to date.

    Material balance calculations are regularly carried out, and actual well

    performance has always closely matched the predicted performance.

    Thus there is a negligible risk associated with continued production. Well

    performance is continually monitored should the need to take remedial

    action ever arise.

    RESERVE CALCULATION

    Calculation of reserves is subject to uncertainty. Until reserves are

    processed, the quantity of reserve data must be considered as estimates.

    FINANCIAL RISK

    Indago has had limited revenues to date and has consolidated

    accumulated net losses. Indago intends to invest in developing its

    business, as such; further losses and negative cash flows will be incurred.

    Indago will require a significant amount of cash to pursue its business

    strategy, to meet its liquidity needs and to service its debt obligations.

    If Indago can not raise additional finance it may be forced to reduce

    or delay its capital expenditure programme, to refinance all or a portion of 

    its existing debt, to sell some of its assets or to obtain additional financing.

    The ability of Indago to arrange additional financing and the cost

    of financing depends upon many factors, including, amongst others,

    economic and capital markets conditions, investor confidence in both the

    oil and gas industry and in the company, regulatory developments and

    credit availability from banks and other lenders.

    If Indago is unable to comply with the restrictions and covenants under certain terms of the existing financing instruments, there could be a default

    under the terms of these instruments, which could result in the

    acceleration of repayments of funds that the Group has borrowed

    or termination of such instruments.

    Indago has partially offset some of its financial risk by agreeing the

    US$ 20 m "back-up" loan facility.

    R I S K S

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    47 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    EQUITY DILUTION

    There is significant risk of dilution as Indago will require further capital in future.

    'GOING CONCERN' ASSUMPTION

    Indago's consolidated financial statements have been prepared assuming

    the Company will continue on a "going-concern" basis; however unless

    additional funding is obtained this assumption will have to change and

    Indago's assets may have to be written down to asset prices realizable

    in insolvency or distress circumstances.

    CONFLICT OF INTEREST

    Directors and Officers may serve on Boards of other exploration

    companies and situations may arise where these directors and officers will

    be in direct competition with the Company.

    In addition, Indago has two significant shareholders, and their interests

    may conflict with the interest of minority shareholders.

    ATTRACTION AND RETENTION OF KEY EMPLOYEES

    The Group is dependent upon the industry contacts and expertise

    of a limited number of its senior management team and accordingly the

    loss of the services of any of the senior management team could affect the

    business and profitability of the Group. There is no assurance that the

    Group will be able to retain such key executives or senior management.

    The Company has entered into service contracts with the relevant

    individuals to minimise this risk.

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    48MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    PROFIT & LOSS

    The main source of revenue for the foreseeable future will be the Bukha

    field, and in due course the West Bukha field will contribute to revenue.

     At the end of 2004 the Bukha field had largely exhausted its cost recovery

    pool. In early 2005 Bukha exited cost recovery and is now into a profit

    sharing arrangement with the government.

    The West Bukha well would add to the cost recovery pool in Block 8 andin the event of failure all drilling costs could be cost recovered against

    Bukha production. Thus the economic impact of a failure is much lower 

    than if no cost recovery were available.

    Net G&A costs of US$1.5 m per annum are forecast going forward.

    On the basis of actual revenues and expenditures the business is currently

    breaking even.

    However, the current forecast anticipates that expenditure on NAGP

    exploration and West Bukha development will commence towards the end

    of 2005.

    F I N A N C I A L   A N A LY S I S

    Indago's 2005 interim accounts

    are presented hereafter. They

    reflect the position of Indago

     just prior to its management

    buy-out, supported by Meridian.

    Though Indago has prepared

    three year historic accounts,

    it must be recognised that these

    accounting statements will be

    of limited use as a guide to thefuture performance of the

    business.

    Though revenue from Bukha

    and West Bukha will cover 

    operating expenses going

    forward, Indago is an

    exploration and development

    company, and it will need to

    raise further funds in due course

    to finance its activities.

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    CONSOLIDATED PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNTS*

    6 months ended Year ended Year ended Year ended

    US$ 30/06/05 31/12/04 31/12/03 31/12/02

    Turnover 1,975,002 15,754,771 7,696,871 9,798,216

    Cost of sales (686,077) (7,305,506) (2,671,369) (4,578,405)

    Exploration costs written off (1,240,929) (4,845,864) (19,165,948) (4,407,748)

    Gross profit/(loss) 47,996 3,603,400 (14,140,446) 812,063

    General and administration expenses (1,628,814) (3,137,135) (2,340,162) (1,732,797)

    Other income - - 1,127,192 1,947,772

    Other expenses (882,014) (2,619,579) (39,858) (100,187)

    Operating profit/(loss) (2,462,832) (2,153,313) (15,393,274) 926,851

    Debt forgiveness - - - 2,750,723

    Operat ing prof it /(loss) af ter except ional i tems (2,462,832) (2,153,313) (15,393,274) 3,677,574

    Interest payable and similar charges (2,552) (3,134) (2,285) (2,433)

    Profi t/(loss) on ordinary activi ties before taxat ion (2,464,384) (2,156,447) (15,395,559) 3,675,141

    Tax on profit/(loss) on ordinary activities (228,000) - - -

    Profi t/(loss) on ordinary activi ties af ter taxat ion (2,692,384) (2,156,447) (15,395,551) 3,675,141

    Retained pr ofit/(loss) fo r the period (2,692,384) (2,156,447) (15,395,559) 3,675,141

    * Management Accounts still subject to Audit review

    Source: Indago Petroleum

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    50MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    BALANCE SHEET

    Indago had Current Assets of US$ 5.9 m as at the 30th June 2005,

    reflecting the contribution of Bukha and short-term loans drawn to fund

    current financial commitments.

    The US$ 2.5 m from related parties refers to loans due from its former 

    parent Medco.

    US$ 5.58 m of the Fixed Assets relates to Oil and Gas properties.

    The total Assets of Indago as at the 30th June 2005 were US$ 12.1 m.

    Indago has current liabilities of US$ 1.8 m, excluding the inter-company

    loan made by Medco.

    The US$ 28.5 million reflect a loan extended by Medco. That loan was

    repaid to Medco by Meridian at the time of the management buy-out, and

    is now due to Meridian.

    F I N A N C I A L   A N A LY S I S

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    51 I ND AG O P ETROLEUM

    CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS*

    US$ 30/06/05 31/12/04 31/12/03 31/12/02

    Fixed assets

    Intangible fixed assets 568,922 - - -

    Tangible fixed assets 5,582,628 6,234,588 7,829,836 9,818,432

    Total Fixed Assets 6,151,550 6,234,588 7,829,836 9,818,432

    Current assets

    Inventories 908,282 6,570 1,317,754 -Trade & other receivables 1,065,547 151,308 200,349 1,971,720

    Due from related parties 2,552,834 961,953 2,987,331 13,066,620

    Other current assets 143,018 1,321,186 901,229 589,375

    Prepayments and accrued income 115,085 2,739 74,353 92,012

    Cash at bank and in hand 1,208,945 1,069,365 309,032 345,291

    Total Current Assets 5,993,711 3,513,121 5,790,048 16,065,018

    Total Assets 12,145,261 9,747,709 13,619,884 25,883,450

    Creditors - amounts falling due within one year 

    Trade creditors and other payables 1,379,700 1,953,165 3,336,842 561,629

     Accrued expenses and other liabilities 478,470 199,420 35,730 28,000

    Tax payable - - - -

    Due to related parties 28,486,916 23,489,783 23,985,524 23,636,474

    Total Creditors 30,345,086 25,642,368 27,358,096 24,226,103

    Provision for l iabilities and charges

    Employee gratuities (388,218) - - -

    Capital and reserves

    Called up share capital 6,889 6,889 6,889 6,889

     Additional paid in capital - - - -

    Profit and loss account (18,594,932) (15,901,548) (13,745,101) 1,650,458

    Equity shareholders' funds (18,588,043) 15,894,659 (13,738,212) 1,657,347

    Total Liabilities 12,145,261 9,747,709 13,619,884 25,883,450

    * Management Accounts still subject to Audit review

    Source: Indago Petroleum

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    52MIRABAUD SECURITIES, M. HOR N & CO.

    CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS*

    6 months ended Year ended Year ended Year ended

    US$ 30/06/05 31/12/04 31/12/03 31/12/02

    Net cash (outflow)/inflow from operating activities (3,208,179) 1,870,568 (11,533,740) (575,844)

    Capital expenditure and financial investment

     Additions to property, plant and equipment (380) - (58,051) (96,879)

     Additions to oil and gas properties (58,113) (54,062) - -

    Net cash provided/(used) in investing activities (58,493) (54,062) (58,051) (96,879)

    Net cash outflow before liqu id resources & financing management (3,266,272) 1,816,506 (11,591,791) (672,723)

    Financing

    Receipts from related undertakings 3,740,295 11,868,911 24,169,474 8,037,298

    Payments made to related undertakings (334,043) (12,925,479) (12,613,940) (7,152,273)

    Net cash provided/(used) by financing activities 3,406,252 (1,056,568) 11,555,534 885,025

    Net increase/(decrease) in cash & cash equivalents 139,580 759,938 (36,257) 212,302

    * Management Accounts still subject to Audit review

    Source: Indago Petroleum

    F I N A N C I A L   A N A LY S I S

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    PROBABILITY PORTFOLIO VALUATION

    When valuing Indago, you are valuing a portfolio of assets. The assets

    include a producing field, an advanced development, a portfolio of drillable

    Prospects, and an inventory of Leads.

     A conventional Net Present Value of Discounted Cash Flows methodology

    can be applied to the producing field of Bukha and to the development

    at West Bukha.

    The overwhelming value attributable to Indago, however, is to be found

    in its exploration portfolio of Prospects and Leads.

    The valuation of Prospects and Leads is technically more challenging than

    the valuation of a producing or late development project.

    The methodology deployed to value Prospects and Leads is probability

    based. The valuation of and the investment in exploration portfolio's using

    probability should be done only by experienced and sophisticated investors.

    This valuation methodology depends on the input of data from a number 

    of professionals. Most notably it is derived from data provided by the

    geologists and other technical consultants who calculate in the first

    instance the size of the "target" structure and an estimate of recoverable

    oil, gas, condensate and other liquids. For the sake of clarification, these

    are not "proved" nor are they "probable" reserves, these are "target"

    reserves. That is to say, these "reserves" are what it is hoped will

    be established in due course as "proven" or "probable", but until then

    these "reserves" are merely "best estimates" by someone who

    is recognised as being technically competent to make such an estimate.

    Despite a significant amount of money spent on these technical reports,

    it must be recognised that they are only a "best guess". Until a hole hasbeen drilled into the reservoir you do not know if there is anything down

    there, whether it is oil, gas or simply water. You do not know whether 

    it is sweet or sour. You do not know whether it is commercial or not. Even

    if it flows, it is still uncertain as to how much will be extractable. You do not

    know the price you will get, nor do you know your costs. As such, oil

    exploration and development is a very high risk activity. You can, and most

    explorers do drill "dry holes", that is to say despite the extensive geological

    reports they do not find anything. Even when they do they often have

    to shut-in and plug the hole for a variety of reasons, and the money spent

    drilling that hole is therefore wasted.

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    Recognising these difficulties and limitations, having established

    an estimate of recoverable oil, gas, condensate or other liquids, the next

    step is to calculate an estimate of "net back". Briefly, this is another "best

    guess" which seeks over the life of field to estimate after capital,

    development, operating, royalty and tax costs the dollars returned

    to an investor for every barrel of oil produced at different price levels.

    In effect it the net margin per barrel of oil.

    With a target recoverable reserve estimate and an estimated "net back",

    a gross value for each field is then calculated. By its self this gross value

    is meaningless; it assumes a 100% success rate which never occursin an exploration portfolio.

    Each asset is then risk appraised, and a probability value is assigned

    to reflect varying degr