Horizon Scan 2016 - Canada
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![Page 1: Horizon Scan 2016 - Canada](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022030318/58ed54db1a28abb5438b45df/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
BCI Horizon Scan 2016
Toronto Forum
Patrick Alcantara DBCI
Senior Research Associate
Business Continuity Institute (BCI)
Andrew Scott CBCI
Senior Communications Manager
Business Continuity Institute (BCI)
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Identify near-term threats
on the radar of BC practitioners worldwide
Benchmark horizon scanning activity
Look out for trends that may influence
businesses in the medium- and long-term
Today’s agenda
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About the BCI Horizon Scan 2016 Survey
568 74organizations countries
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
3
5
7
9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 5 threat:
Security incident
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
3
5
7
9
11
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 4 threat:
Act of terror
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0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 3 threat:
IT/telecoms outage
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0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 2 threat:
Data breach
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0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - percentage
Concerned Extremely concerned
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Level of concern - ranking
No. 1 threat:
Cyber attack
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Tracking threats
• Appears in the top 10 for
the first time since the
survey began
5
Availability of
talents or key skills
(14th to 9th)
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Tracking threats
• Almost three-quarters of
organizations (74%) report
at least 1 disruption/year*
• 14% claim losses of at
least €1 million*
2
Supply chain disruption
(5th to 7th)*BCI Supply Chain Resilience Report 2015
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Tracking threats
5
Human illness
(8th to 13th)
1
Fire
(10th to 11th)
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Tracking threats
0 20 40 60 80 100
Health & safety incident
Availability of…
Adverse weather
Supply chain disruption
Interruption to utility…
Security incident
Act of terrorism
Unplanned IT & telecom…
Data breach
Cyber attack
Threats across the globe
Extremely concerned Concerned
Somewhat concerned Not concerned
0 20 40 60 80 100
Fire
Earthquake/tsunami
Security incident
Act of terror
Interruption to utility…
Supply chain disruption
Adverse weather
Unplanned IT & telecom…
Data breach
Cyber attack
Threats in Canada
Extremely concerned Concerned
Somewhat concerned Not concerned
+4
+4
+7
+1
-3
-3
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What does this mean?
• Are cyber attacks the most
likely disruption?
• Will a cyber attack have the
biggest impact?
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Top trends
29
36
42
47
48
50
55
56
63
83
0 20 40 60 80 100
Energy security & thetransition to sustainable…
Changing consumer attitudes& behaviour
Political change
Increasing supply chaincomplexity
Potential emergence of aglobal pandemic
Prevalence & high adoption ofinternet dependent services
New regulations & increasedregulatory scrutiny
Loss of key employee
Influence of social media
Use of internet for maliciousattack
Trends across the globe
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Top trends
29
36
42
47
48
50
55
56
63
83
0 20 40 60 80 100
Energy security & thetransition to sustainable…
Changing consumer attitudes& behaviour
Political change
Increasing supply chaincomplexity
Potential emergence of aglobal pandemic
Prevalence & high adoption ofinternet dependent services
New regulations & increasedregulatory scrutiny
Loss of key employee
Influence of social media
Use of internet for maliciousattack
Trends across the globe
39
44
44
44
50
50
50
50
72
72
0 20 40 60 80 100
Changes in consumer attitudes& behaviour
Potential emergence of aglobal pandemic
News regulations & increasedregulatory scrutiny
Climate change
Loss of key employee
Political change
Prevalence & high adoption ofinternet dependent services
Increasing supply chaincomplexity
Influence of social media
Use of internet for maliciousattack
Trends within Canada
+4
-3
+1
+3
-4
-1
+4
-3
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Further analysis
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Growing potential for social unrest
• Central and Latin America (CALA): Political change (1st)
• Middle East & North Africa (MENA): Loss of key
(1st)
• Asia: Potential emergence of a global pandemic (2nd)
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Further analysis
• Manufacturing: Increasing supply chain complexity (1st)
• Health and social care: Emergence of a global pandemic (1st)
• Finance and IT/telecommunications: New regulations and increased regulatory scrutiny (3rd)
• Education: Political change (3rd)
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Conducting trend analysis
70% of organisations conduct
trend analysis to better
understand threats, a slight
decline from 73% last year.
39
31
26
4
Global
YES, this is conducted by a central, corporate function or department
YES, but many different departments so this according to their own needs
NO, we don't do this
I don't know
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Conducting trend analysis
39
31
26
4
Global
YES, this is conducted by a central, corporate function or department
YES, but many different departments so this according to their own needs
NO, we don't do this
I don't know
63
31
6 0
Canada
YES, this is conducted by a central, corporate function or department
YES, but many different departments so this according to their own needs
NO, we don't do this
I don't know
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Use of trend analysis in informing BCM
A third (33%) DO NOT use
trend analysis to guide
BCM programmes, a figure
unchanged from last year’s.
41
26
30
3
Global
YES, I'm aware of the outputs and I use themYES, I help develop the analysis in the first placeNO, I don't have access to this information
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Use of trend analysis in informing BCM
41
26
30
3
Global
YES, I'm aware of the outputs and I use themYES, I help develop the analysis in the first placeNO, I don't have access to this information
6319
190
Canada
YES, I'm aware of the outputs and I use themYES, I help develop the analysis in the first placeNO, I don't have access to this information
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Level of BC investment
There is a slight increase in
organizations reporting
more investments in BC (23%
to 24%).
24
54
11
11
Global
Increased to meet the needs of a growing programme or new requirements
Maintained at the appropriate levels for the programme scope and positionin the lifecycle
Cut, limiting the scope or effectiveness of the programme
I don’t know
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Level of BC investment
24
54
11
11
Global
Increased to meet the needs of a growing programme or new requirements
Maintained at the appropriate levels for the programme scope and positionin the lifecycle
Cut, limiting the scope or effectiveness of the programme
I don’t know
25
50
13
13
Canada
Increased to meet the needs of a growing programme or new requirements
Maintained at the appropriate levels for the programme scope and positionin the lifecycle
Cut, limiting the scope or effectiveness of the programme
I don’t know
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Use of ISO 22301 in BCM implementation
51
18
24
7
Global
Use ISO22301 as a framework
Don't currently use ISO22301 as a framework but we intend to movetowards this during 2016.
Don't use ISO22301 as a framework and have no plans to move towardsthis during 2016.
N/A
A majority of organizations
report using ISO 22301
as a framework for BCM
implementation.
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Use of ISO 22301 in BCM implementation
24
54
11
11
Global
Use ISO22301 as a framework
Don't currently use ISO22301 as a framework but we intend to movetowards this during 2016.
Don't use ISO22301 as a framework and have no plans to move towardsthis during 2016.
N/A
44
11
39
6
Canada
Use ISO22301 as a framework
Don't currently use ISO22301 as a framework but we intend to movetowards this during 2016.
Don't use ISO22301 as a framework and have no plans to move towardsthis during 2016.
N/A
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Key takeaways
• Cyber issues continue to dominate the threat landscape
although physical security incidents are seen as a
concern for many professionals.
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Key takeaways
• The ‘human factor’ (i.e. skills shortage, loss of key
employees) clearly impacts on business performance
and requires a strategic response.
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Key takeaways
• Access to important data (e.g. trend analysis results)
remains a barrier for many organizations which impairs
resilience. This strengthens the case for breaking down
silos and encouraging engagement among management
disciplines which build overall resilience.
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011 8372 3079
http://uk.linkedin.com/in/patrickalcantara/en
Patrick Alcantara DBCI
0118 9478241
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/andrewcolinscott
@andrewthescot
Andrew Scott CBCI