Hong Kong SAR Government 2010 年第三季經濟報告
34
1 香港特別行政區政府 香港特別行政區政府 Hong Kong SAR Government Hong Kong SAR Government 2010 2010 年第三季經濟報告 年第三季經濟報告 Third Quarter Economic Report 2010 Third Quarter Economic Report 2010 & & 2010 2010 年全年修訂經濟預測 年全年修訂經濟預測 Updated economic forecasts for 2010 Updated economic forecasts for 2010 二零一零年十一月十二日 二零一零年十一月十二日 12 November 2010 12 November 2010
Transcript of Hong Kong SAR Government 2010 年第三季經濟報告
Third Quarter Economic Report 20102010 2010 Third Quarter Economic
Report 2010Third Quarter Economic Report 2010
&&
12 November 201012 November 2010
2
2010
3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
(%) Rate of change in real terms (%)
0.7%
6.8%
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
(%) Rate of change in real terms (%)
Year-on-year change
; Asia still the bright spot; Further improvement in
exports to US and Europe
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
US (92.8)
EU (86.1)
Asia- others
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
14.0%
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
(%) Rate of change in real terms (%)
1.7%
5.7%
three quarters of notable expansion
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
computer software Gross domestic fixed
capital formation
11
Unemployment rate fell to the lowest since end 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
13
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Wage index
Shanghai Composite Index () MSCI Pacific Index (excl. HK and Japan) Singapore Straits Index Hang Seng Index 100
FTSE 100 Index Dow Jones Index Nikkei Index
(15/9/2008=100)
Change over
markets worldwide
SCI (51%)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
100 Residential price index
2008
Above 1997 peak: +10%
Below 1997 peak: -11%
Below 1997 peak: -12%
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0
20
40
60
80
100
() Number of transactions (LHS)
HK$ Bn
19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
(^) 45(70%20) ()
Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income of households (excluding those living in public housing).
2010 42.0 2010 Q3 : 42.0
1997 92.8 1997 Q2 : 92.8
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Driven by low interest rates and ample liquidity
21
should interest rate eventually normalise
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
^ Repayment-income ratio^ (%)
2010 42.0 2010 Q3 : 42.0
1989-200852.6 1989-2008 average : 52.6
(^) 45(70%20) (
)
Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income of households (excluding those living in public housing).
22
went on
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
9 Sep
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Overall import prices
Underlying CCPI
(%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
(%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
1.6% 2.2%
-4
0
4
8
12
26
2010
27
•
Fading stimulus effect and inventory restocking in the advanced economies may drag on export growth in Hong Kong and Asia
•
Exchange rates fluctuation and rise of protectionism increase headwinds on external trade outlook
•
Flush of liquidity into Asia posing a risk to macroeconomic stability and inflation
•
Repercussions of European sovereign debt problem may yet to emerge
Downside risk to economy increased somewhat
28
pre-crisis level
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
01/08 03/08 05/08 07/08 09/08 11/08 01/09 03/09 05/09 07/09 09/09 11/09 01/10 03/10 05/10 07/10 09/10
(1/2008 = 100)
47
48
49
50
51
52
Expected change in business situation of I/E trade and Wholesale Sector
30
• Firm local consumption and investment sentiments
• Growth in the Mainland and other Asian economies still leading
• Expedition of infrastructure projects
Yet economy still supported by favourable factors
31
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
business situation (LHS)
Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in business situation versus preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentage points between the proportion of establishments choosing "better" over that choosing "worse". A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend.
: *
Note : *
(%) Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
32
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
# Notes: * Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in number of persons engaged versus preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentage points between the proportion of establishments choosing "up" over that choosing "down". A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. # Employment in private sector.
* () Net balance* (% point)
# () Employment# growth (RHS)
(%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
33
: 6.5% ( 5-6% ) Real GDP growth: 6.5% (Revised upwards from 5-6%)
: 2.5% ( 2.3% ) Headline inflation: 2.5% (Revised upwards from 2.3%)
: 1.7% ( 1.5% ) Underlying inflation: 1.7% (Revised upwards from 1.5%)
2010 Economic forecasts on Hong Kong for 2010
34
End
&&
12 November 201012 November 2010
2
2010
3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
(%) Rate of change in real terms (%)
0.7%
6.8%
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
(%) Rate of change in real terms (%)
Year-on-year change
; Asia still the bright spot; Further improvement in
exports to US and Europe
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
US (92.8)
EU (86.1)
Asia- others
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
14.0%
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
(%) Rate of change in real terms (%)
1.7%
5.7%
three quarters of notable expansion
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
computer software Gross domestic fixed
capital formation
11
Unemployment rate fell to the lowest since end 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
13
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Wage index
Shanghai Composite Index () MSCI Pacific Index (excl. HK and Japan) Singapore Straits Index Hang Seng Index 100
FTSE 100 Index Dow Jones Index Nikkei Index
(15/9/2008=100)
Change over
markets worldwide
SCI (51%)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
100 Residential price index
2008
Above 1997 peak: +10%
Below 1997 peak: -11%
Below 1997 peak: -12%
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0
20
40
60
80
100
() Number of transactions (LHS)
HK$ Bn
19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
(^) 45(70%20) ()
Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income of households (excluding those living in public housing).
2010 42.0 2010 Q3 : 42.0
1997 92.8 1997 Q2 : 92.8
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Driven by low interest rates and ample liquidity
21
should interest rate eventually normalise
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
^ Repayment-income ratio^ (%)
2010 42.0 2010 Q3 : 42.0
1989-200852.6 1989-2008 average : 52.6
(^) 45(70%20) (
)
Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income of households (excluding those living in public housing).
22
went on
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
9 Sep
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Overall import prices
Underlying CCPI
(%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
(%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
1.6% 2.2%
-4
0
4
8
12
26
2010
27
•
Fading stimulus effect and inventory restocking in the advanced economies may drag on export growth in Hong Kong and Asia
•
Exchange rates fluctuation and rise of protectionism increase headwinds on external trade outlook
•
Flush of liquidity into Asia posing a risk to macroeconomic stability and inflation
•
Repercussions of European sovereign debt problem may yet to emerge
Downside risk to economy increased somewhat
28
pre-crisis level
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
01/08 03/08 05/08 07/08 09/08 11/08 01/09 03/09 05/09 07/09 09/09 11/09 01/10 03/10 05/10 07/10 09/10
(1/2008 = 100)
47
48
49
50
51
52
Expected change in business situation of I/E trade and Wholesale Sector
30
• Firm local consumption and investment sentiments
• Growth in the Mainland and other Asian economies still leading
• Expedition of infrastructure projects
Yet economy still supported by favourable factors
31
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
business situation (LHS)
Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in business situation versus preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentage points between the proportion of establishments choosing "better" over that choosing "worse". A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend.
: *
Note : *
(%) Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
32
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
# Notes: * Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in number of persons engaged versus preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentage points between the proportion of establishments choosing "up" over that choosing "down". A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. # Employment in private sector.
* () Net balance* (% point)
# () Employment# growth (RHS)
(%) Year-on-year rate of change (%)
33
: 6.5% ( 5-6% ) Real GDP growth: 6.5% (Revised upwards from 5-6%)
: 2.5% ( 2.3% ) Headline inflation: 2.5% (Revised upwards from 2.3%)
: 1.7% ( 1.5% ) Underlying inflation: 1.7% (Revised upwards from 1.5%)
2010 Economic forecasts on Hong Kong for 2010
34
End
