Holiday Survival Kit 2014

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  • Holiday forecasts, consumer trends and historical retail sales data from the National Retail Federation

    n r f . c o m / h o l i d a y s

  • n r f . c o m / h o l i d a y s

    The National Retail Federations Holiday Survival Kit serves as a guide for reporters and retailers, offering historical information on holiday sales, employment data and consumer trends.

    NRF experts will be available throughout the holiday season to discuss consumer trends, economic data and a variety of other retail topics. To interview a retail expert for print or broadcast, please contact:

    p r e s s @ n r f . c o m (855) NRF-PRESS

    OR

    Kathy Grannis (202) 626-8189 g r a n n i s k @ n r f . c o m

    Holiday trends and the latest survey data will be posted regularly on NRFs Holiday Headquarters at n r f . c o m / h o l i d a y s .

    For up-to-the-minute holiday news, follow @ N R F n e w s on Twitter.

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  • n r f . c o m / h o l i d a y s

    T able of Contents

    I. Holiday Forecasts for 2014__________________________________

    1. Holiday Sales and Forecast__________________________________________

    2. A Look at Holidays Past_____________________________________________

    3. Holiday Sales by Select Sectors______________________________________

    4. Retail Employment and Seasonal Hiring_______________________________

    II. 2013 Wrap Up: Holiday Trends_____________________________

    1. 2013 Holiday Trends_______________________________________________

    2. When Americans Started Shopping in 2013____________________________

    3. Black Friday and Cyber Monday: Final Numbers for 2013_________________

    4. Online Holiday Retail Trends from 2013________________________________

    III. Frequently Asked Questions_______________________________

    IV. Tips for Navigating the Retail Insight Center: Access More Data in 5 Easy Steps______________________

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    CONTENTS PAGE

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    holiday sales in 2014

    Source: NRF, derived from U.S. Department of Commerce data

    Expected e-commerce growth of

    $105 Billion

    * Projected

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    2014* $619,900 4.1% $3,194.318 19.2%

    2013 $592,660 3.1% $3,083,319 19.2%

    2012 $574,937 2.9% $2,980,372 19.3%

    2011 $558,802 4.8% $2,867,845 19.5%

    2010 $533,118 5.3% $2,727,112 19.5%

    2009 $506,303 0.5% $2,640,725 19.2%

    2008 $503,805 -4.4% $2,732,598 18.4%

    2007 $527,046 2.8% $2,732,598 18.4%

    2006 $512,883 3.3% $2,624,387 19.5%

    2005 $496,332 6.2% $2,492,997 19.9%

    2004 $467,339 6.8% $2,349,973 19.9%

    Holiday Forecasts for 2014 The holiday season, defined by NRF as sales in the months of November and December, is the biggest time of year

    for retailers of all shapes and sizes. Retail sales during these two months can account for as much as 20-40% of a

    retailers annual sales. This year, NRF estimates that holiday sales will increase 4.1% to $616.9 billion. Holiday sales

    estimates are often viewed as a solid indication of the overall health of consumers financial stability decreasing

    during times of economic uncertainty and increasing during a thriving economy. The average increase in holiday

    sales for the past 10 years is 2.9%.

    Shop.org Online Holiday Forecast

    Shop.org, NRFs digital retail division, expects online holiday sales to grow between 8 11% this year. Using expected sales in the months of November and December and economic data derived from the U.S. Department of Commerce, NRFs chief economist expects online retailers will see solid growth this holiday season.

    HOLIDAY INDUSTRY SALES BY YEAR

    Year Holiday Retail Sales

    (in millions)

    Holiday Sales % Change

    Annual Retail Sales (in millions)

    Holiday Sales as a % of Industry

    Sales

  • n r f . c o m / h o l i d a y s

    holiday sales in 2014

    Here are some trends from holidays past:

    2013: A shortened holiday calendar, an early Thanksgiving and an October government shutdown put the 2013 holiday season in the books as one of the most interesting in history. For the first time in 17 years, holiday shoppers watched as Washington shut its doors for two weeks in October. During his annual holiday forecast media call, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay told listeners that the 3.9% forecast was a very realistic look at where we are in the current economy

    2012: The economic picture going into the holiday season was much like it would end up being the year after uncertain. Government data showed a crosscurrent of indicators that hung in the balance of Washingtons decision to avoid a fiscal cliff. NRFs first holiday spending survey found that consumers would spend close to what theyd spent the previous year, an average of $740 on gifts, dcor, flowers, food and more.

    2011: In December, NRF announced it was revising its holiday forecast upward to 3.8% from the original forecast of 2.8%. Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz commented, Consumer spending this holiday season has surpassed expectations, though many shoppers continue to stick to their budgets and buy only what they need. Despite modest job and income growth, consumers have continuously proven they have the capacity to spend. Holiday sales in 2011 ended up increasing even more than expected, to 4.8%.

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    Historical Holiday Trends

    Just how big is the holiday season in the grand scheme of things?

    Nearly one-fifth of the industrys annual sales in 2013 $3.2 trillion came directly from the months of November and December, making it the top consumer spending event of the year.

    Second to the holiday season is the back-to-school and college season, which was estimated to reach $74.5 billion this year.

    The holiday season also accounts for more sales than Mothers Day, Fathers Day, Valentines Day, Halloween, Easter and St. Patricks Day combined.

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    Holiday Sales by SectorFrom jewelry and sporting goods to apparel and electronics, holiday gifts run the

    gamut. In 2013, electronics stores saw 23% of their total annual revenue come

    during the months of November and December. The sector with the highest

    percentage of sales that occur during the holiday season is jewelry stores at 28%.

    Jewelry has the highest % of sales during the holiday season

    28%

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    Source: NRF, derived from U.S. Department of Commerce data

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    Source: NRF, derived from Bureau of Labor Statistics data

    Retail Employment and Seasonal Hiring

    As retailers ready their stores for the crowds that typically accompany the holiday season, they also begin

    preparing behind the scenes by hiring extra staff. These new hires are brought on to run the store, manage gift

    wrap, stock new inventories and serve as customer service representatives. This holiday season, NRF predicts

    retailers will hire an additional 725,000 800,000 seasonal employees. In addition to retailers seasonal

    positions, retail indirectly creates many jobs throughout the holiday season for workers in transportation,

    manufacturing and fulfillment.

    Heres a look at holiday hiring over the last 10 years:

    * Projected

    7

    1000

    900

    800

    700

    600

    500

    400

    300

    200

    100

    0

    HISTORICAL HOLIDAY HIRING

    Hol

    iday

    Em

    ploy

    men

    t (i

    n th

    ousa

    nds)

    2004

    679.98 660.27

    263.82

    368.76

    563.02

    636.57671.70

    768.30800.00*

    684.43 688.38

    2006 2008 2010 20122005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014

  • n r f . c o m / h o l i d a y s

    2013 Holiday Trends and Consumer ResearchRetail companies, news media and analysts commonly seek out consumer trend data from NRF for insights into

    what to expect from shoppers during the holiday season. This is the 13th year NRF has partnered with Prosper

    Insights & Analytics to provide this data.

    $767 27Total amount spent per

    person in 2013

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    Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics for NRF, 2013 Consumer Spending Survey

    Consumer Spending on Holiday Trimmings, Gifts and More

    $500

    $400

    $300

    $200

    $100

    $50

    $0

    Gift

    s fo

    r fam

    ily

    Gift

    s fo

    r frie

    nds

    Gift

    s fo

    r co-

    wor

    kers

    Oth

    er g

    ifts

    Deco

    ratio

    ns

    Cand

    y an

    d fo

    od

    Card

    s &

    pos

    tage

    Flow

    ers

    CONSUMER SPENDING

    $432.00

    $75.00

    $24.52 $21.96$26.65 $29.14

    $53.65

    $104.34

  • n r f . c o m / h o l i d a y s9

    When Does Holiday Shopping Begin?

    The prevalence of early holiday deals put many eager shoppers in the spirit as early as September

    last holiday season. Historically, four in 10 holiday shoppers began shopping for holiday gifts before

    Halloween each year, meaning there are plenty of people shopping for holiday trimmings at the

    same time they are picking out pumpkins.

    Why are Americans Shopping for the Winter Holidays Earlier?

    With the economy still driving much of the

    consumer spending conversation in retail,

    NRF for the first time in 2013 asked holiday

    shoppers about the reasons they shop

    before Halloween. Ranging from a desire

    to avoid holiday crowds to simply the fact