HIWeather “Research for Resilience” Brian Golding, Jenny Sun (presented by Sharan Majumdar) 8 th...

HIWeather“Research for Resilience”

Brian Golding, Jenny Sun (presented by Sharan Majumdar)

8th DAOS WG Meeting, Beijing, ChinaOctober 27th, 2015

https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/high_impact_weather_project.html



Mission

“Promote Co Operative International Research to ‐achieve a Dramatic Increase in Resilience to High Impact Weather, worldwide, through Improving Forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and Enhancing their Communication & Utility in Social, Economic & Environmental Applications”

10-year WMO/WWRP Programme, established January 2015.

HIWeather

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Commu-nication

Predict-ability & Processes

Impact Forecasting Verification

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Benefits in Operational Forecasting

Urban flood

Wildfire

Disruptive winter weather

Localised Extreme Wind

Urban Heat Waves & Air

Pollution

Data Management & Archiving

Organization

• Co-Chairs– Brian Golding (UK Met Office)– David Johnston (University of Wellington, NZ)• Expertise in disaster management research

• Steering Group (each will form task teams)– George Craig (Predictability and Processes)– Jenny Sun (Multi-scale Forecasting)– Brian Mills (Vulnerability and Risk)– Beth Ebert (Evaluation)– (vacant) (Communication)

Multi-scale forecasting of weather-related hazards [DRAFT J. Sun, Oct 19, 2015) Observation and nowcasting -- with WWRP Nowcasting and Mesoscale?• Improvement of rapid updated (~10min) analysis for nowcasting high impact

weather utilizing remote sensing and in-situ boundary layer obs.• Development of techniques of combining observation based and NWP-based

nowcasts. Data assimilation• Improved utilization of high spatial and temporal resolution observations in high

resolution NWP models, including radar, satellite, profiler, and other unconventional obs.

• Development of techniques that can effectively assimilate small scale observations without distorting the large scales to obtain multi-scale balanced initial conditions.

• Characterization of observation errors and background errors and biases applicable to convective-scale data assimilation

Model development• Development of a new generation of scale adaptive parameterization schemes, with emphasis on PBL, microphysics, and cloud-related turbulence• Optimization of ocean-atmosphere-aerosol-land surface coupling strategies for small scales and short-to-medium lead time forecasts Ensemble forecasting• Design of perturbation uncertainties to represent initial uncertainties for different time scales and new perturbation strategies to overcome underspreading in surface weather

parameters Post-processing, product generation, and human interpretation • Post-processing and interpretation of ensemble product for the application of convective-scale high impact weather prediction

DAOS Role?

• From Brian Golding (e-mail, Oct 16 2015)

“Great to see a developing relationship between the HIWeather Forecasting theme and DAOS! I would certainly want to encourage that. DAOS has contributed significantly to defining the activities in the HIWeather implementation plan, and I hope that DAOS may be able to take ownership of some of those activities through its members.”

Planned meetings relevant to DAOS

• HIWeather Workshop – April 25-29 2016 in Exeter, UK.

• WMO WWRP 4th International Symposium on Nowcasting and Very-short-range Forecast 2016 (WSN16) – 25-29 July 2016 in Hong Kong

• Workshop/conference on convective-scale initialization – 2017?

Notes from correspondence with B. Golding, October 19, 2015

• Workshop/conference on convective-scale initialisation in 2017, potentially with DAOS involved.– Combining it with another meeting desirable– Quadrennial WMO DA meeting would be ideal.– The issue will be whether DAOS is happy to dive into km-scale

observing & DA, at least for part of the meeting. • From a HIWeather point of view, key challenges:

– Use of high resolution observations (including unconventional sources) especially those with “large” and/or correlated errors

– Multi-scale initialisation – especially initialising convection without upsetting larger scale balances.

– Coupled initialisation at high resolution – especially consistent land surface/atmosphere initialisation, but also coastal ocean and lake states.

• HIWeather implementation plan hints at intercomparison of techniques used for km-scale DA. Workshop: design and kick-off.

• DAOS might consider whether this is likely to gain contributions and if so, whether it could be included in their planning.

COMET® UCAR Stefan Penninger

Lead, coordinate and interface with field experiments, RDPs & FDPs to test key generic hypotheses in specific local environments

Field Campaigns & Demonstrations

Challenges:• Building local capability & capacity• Engaging the observing, modelling & forecasting research communities• T-NAWDEX/DOWNSTREAM: diabatic influence on rapid growth of N. Atlantic

waveguide disturbances & downstream forecast implications• LVB-HyNEWS: causes of fishing fatalities from nocturnal convection over Lake

Victoria and developing forecasting capability• ALERT.AR/RELAMPAGO: urban flood impacts in the La Plata basin of South

America, from some of the most electrically intense convection in the world • Use of data from SCMREX, TOMACS, PECAN, CHAMP, HYMEX• Testing of modelling capabilities in testbeds such as the HWT in Oklahoma• Seek suitable demonstration experiments in fire, heat & winter weather

Extra slides

• AMS Presentation by Brian Golding, Jan 2015


Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts in coupled modelling systems

Challenges:• New observation sources of weather, hazards & their impacts at km-scale for

monitoring, verification and coupled modeling, including crowd-sourcing• Compare/develop hazard nowcasting methods, inc NWP• Develop coupled data assimilation methods that deal with frequent updates,

new observations, multi-scale coupled error structures, strong non-linearity• Develop coupled km-scale modeling systems for hazard prediction that adequately

represent convective initiation, microphysics & land surface interactions• Ensemble perturbations for multi-scale coupled models that produce well

calibrated hazard probabilities • Globally consistent hazard products• Products tailored to user needs, especially when representing uncertainty

Multi-Scale Forecasting


Design observing networks that support km-scale impact forecasting while retaining adequate capability for the underpinning synoptic

scale meteorology

Observing Strategies

Challenges:• Designing achievable multi-scale observing strategies for monitoring & NWP• Taking account of DA capabilities, especially in error specification• Identifying the most relevant data sources for specific hazards• Understanding the dependence of hazard forecasts on observation density• Developing appropriate data access, exchange and quality control systems

DAOS or MWFR?

Urban Flood: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from flood inundation by intense rain, out-of-bank river flow, coastal wave & surge overtopping and from consequent urban landslides.

Wildfire: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from wildfires & their smoke.

Extreme Local Wind: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from wind & wind blown debris in tropical & extra-tropical cyclones, downslope windstorms & convective storms, including tornadoes.

Disruptive Winter Weather: Reducing mortality, morbidity, damage and disruption from snow, ice and fog to transport, power & communications infrastructure.

Urban Heat Waves & Air Pollution: Reducing mortality, morbidity and disruption from extreme heat & pollution in the megacities of the developing and newly developed world.

© www.thamai.net

© www.energydigital.com

© Tommy Hindley/ Professional Sport

© Adrian Pearman/Caters

[email protected]

Scope defined by a set of hazards...

HIW

eath

er

WMOOMM

…their impacts,

Dirty water in the “wrong” place

Buildings damaged

Depth Velocity Dirt/Trash

Landslide

Contents destroyed

Transport blocked

Water/energy interrupted

Business interrupted

Illness

Contamination

Bankruptcy

RedundancyDistress

Death Recovery cost

Rain

Run-off RiverDrains

Breach/ Overtopping

Pollutants

Injury

Occupants displaced Food/fuel

shortage

Drowning

Storm surge

Ocean Waves

WindPressureSnow Temperature

Snow Melt

…mitigation actions,

…the required information,

?

Pmsl

H500

The Gulf

coast of

Florida

Outlook for days 3-5

A 10% chance of

a shower

? ?20% prob of intense rain within 30km between 1-2pm tomorrow

…define our five research pillars• Understanding the processes & predictability of weather systems

that generate hazards• Multi-scale forecasting of hazards using coupled numerical weather,

ocean, land surface, ice & air quality modelling, nowcasting, data assimilation & post-processing systems.• Forecasting the human impacts, exposure, vulnerability & risk of

hazards to people, buildings, businesses, infrastructure and the environment using a variety of tools.• Communicating hazard forecasts & warnings so as to reach

vulnerable communities and achieve responses from risk managers and the public that increase resilience.• Evaluating hazardous weather, impact & risk forecasts, alerts &

warnings and the resulting responses with user-relevant metrics.• supported by eight cross-cutting activities

The HIWeather Challenges


Predictability & Processes

Develop knowledge & understanding of processes relevant for initiation & evolution of hazard-related weather systems and

processes that are important for their prediction

Danish Met Office

Challenges:• conditioning of convective-scale hazards by large scale processes in tropical &

extra-tropical latitudes and implications for predictability• differences in hazard predictability from “normal” weather and association

with forecasts that are very sensitive to initial state• mechanisms for quasi-stationary hazardous weather systems• role of diabatic heating in dynamical structure• role of boundary layer and land surface• pre-conditioning of the land surface for hazards• knowledge of processes specific to individual hazards


Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts in coupled modelling systems

Challenges:• New observation sources of weather, hazards & their impacts at km-scale for

monitoring, verification and coupled modeling, including crowd-sourcing• Compare/develop hazard nowcasting methods, inc NWP• Develop coupled data assimilation methods that deal with frequent updates,

new observations, multi-scale coupled error structures, strong non-linearity• Develop coupled km-scale modeling systems for hazard prediction that

adequately represent convective initiation, microphysics & land surface interactions

• Ensemble perturbations for multi-scale coupled models that produce well calibrated hazard probabilities

• Globally consistent hazard products• Products tailored to user needs, especially when representing uncertainty

Multi-Scale Forecasting


Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings through assessment of the impact of the predicted hazard on individuals, communities and

businesses, their vulnerability and hence their risk

Challenges:• Growing research capacity in human impacts, vulnerability & risk• Synthesising current fragmented work, including on immediate & delayed

impacts, high consequence events & use of analogues• Using social media to construct & validate models• Representing the dynamic nature of vulnerability from socio-economic

datasets• Identifying & characterising vulnerability especially in rarely exposed

populations• Understanding counter-intuitive warning responses

Vulnerability & Risk


Achieve more effective responses to forecasts through better communication of hazard forecasts & warnings and hazard impacts

Challenges:• Diagnosing & synthesising understanding of the effectiveness of different

communication methods• Understanding how social media can be used effectively in communication• Understanding the reasons for lack of trust in forecasts & warnings & sharing

of success stories in building up trust• Developing good practice in communicating forecasts & warnings• Growing capacity in these areas of work

Communication


Measure skill and value of forecasts & warnings at all stages of the production process so as to focus research in weak areas and to

support users in developing appropriate responses

Challenges:• Identifying appropriate verification methods for hazards• Understanding the profile of information loss through the production chain• Understanding the performance information that will enable users to

develop appropriate response strategies• Measuring weather-related impacts and human responses• Developing capability to comprehensively assess the economic value of

forecasting & warning services• Growing capacity in the verification of hazards, impacts and responses

User-Oriented Evaluation


Work with operational forecasters to enable an increased focus on impacts & communication through use of automated guidance

Challenges:• Providing evidence to support effective hazard communication• Providing evidence of track record to support confidence estimates• Providing supporting information to forecast guidance• Providing automated guidance where helpful

Operational Forecasting


Design observing networks that support km-scale impact forecasting while retaining adequate capability for the underpinning synoptic

scale meteorology

Observing Strategies

Challenges:• Designing achievable multi-scale observing strategies for monitoring & NWP• Taking account of DA capabilities, especially in error specification• Identifying the most relevant data sources for specific hazards• Understanding the dependence of hazard forecasts on observation density• Developing appropriate data access, exchange and quality control systems


Uncertainty is a key cross-cutting theme, from predictability of the km-scale meteorology through the hazards &impacts to people‘s responses

Uncertainty

Challenges:• Designing model parametrizations that take account of uncertainty• Establishing a culture of uncertainty in our science and in the advice we give


Lead, coordinate and interface with field experiments, RDPs & FDPs to test key generic hypotheses in specific local environments

Field Campaigns & Demonstrations

Challenges:• Building local capability & capacity• Engaging the observing, modelling & forecasting research communities• T-NAWDEX/DOWNSTREAM: diabatic influence on rapid growth of N. Atlantic

waveguide disturbances & downstream forecast implications• LVB-HyNEWS: causes of fishing fatalities from nocturnal convection over Lake

Victoria and developing forecasting capability• ALERT.AR/RELAMPAGO: urban flood impacts in the La Plata basin of South

America, from some of the most electrically intense convection in the world • Use of data from SCMREX, TOMACS, PECAN, CHAMP, HYMEX• Testing of modelling capabilities in testbeds such as the HWT in Oklahoma• Seek suitable demonstration experiments in fire, heat & winter weather


Share understanding of issues in each of the areas involved in forecasting, warning & communication

Knowledge Transfer

Challenges:• Transferring hazard forecasting expertise to NMHSs in developing countries • Attracting young researchers into hazard forecasting fields of research• Matching the transfer of capability to the current ability of recipients• Ensuring the transferability of new forecasting methods• Matching communications research to local language & culture


Make use of appropriate verification methods in all parts of the forecasting & warning chain to inform and evaluate research

Verification

Challenges:• Understanding the propagation of error & value through the production

chain from observation to forecast, warning and user decisions• Connecting verification metrics to process understanding & model

improvement• Matching verification metrics to user requirements


Ensure a focus on the decisions that will mitigate weather-related hazard impacts at all stages in the production chain

Impact Forecasting

Challenges:• Understanding the relationship between weather, related hazards, and their

impacts


Ensure that field & model data produced during HIWeather are used effectively for research

Data Management &

Archiving

Challenges:• Enabling easy access to observations, forecasts & products from field

campaigns, case studies, inter-comparisons, reanalyses & surveys

taking part

• Orientation of planned research programmes to internationally identified priorities

• Sharing of expertise through international reviews

• Invitations to international participation in national projects

• Participation in international projects with relevant objectives

HIWeather “Research for Resilience” Brian Golding, Jenny Sun (presented by Sharan Majumdar) 8 th...

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