Historical RA export from NWPP to CAISO · 2020. 5. 29. · BANC + TIDC NWPP WECC BAAs Source:...

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Historical RA export from NWPP to CAISOAn analysis of CAISO-contracted Resource Adequacy import

California ISO

May 29, 2020

ISO Public

Table of contents

Introduction

Limit

Capacity

Usage

Summary

3

2

6

5

5

slides

ISO Public

CAISO analysis on contracted Resource Adequacy

imports from the Northwest Power Pool

Key slides are marked by star

• In response to a request made by the Northwest Power Pool (NWPP), the

CAISO prepared this analysis of Resource Adequacy (RA) imports. The

analysis is based on historical data of CAISO RA import contracts and

energy flows between the NWPP and CAISO footprints

• The NWPP request was made as part of an effort being undertaken by the

NWPP to assess the resource adequacy of the NWPP region and the

potential benefits of forming an RA program for the NWPP footprint

• This analysis is based on historic data that are aggregated to a regional

level, such that it does not disclose any entity-specific confidential

information of contractual or operational data

• The analysis is a historic lookback only and does not draw any conclusions

with respect to future RA contracting or energy flows between the regions

ISO Public

Footprint of Northwest Power Pool (NWPP)

Source: “Northwest Power Pool Reliability through Cooperation”, presentation by NWPP, 2013

Northwest

NEVP + PACE

BANC + TIDC

NWPP

WECC BAAs

Source: CAISO

ISO Public

Capacity UsageLimit

ScheduleContractImport capability

CAISO import

Terminology

CAISO BA

External BAs

Usage

e-Tag interchange schedule

RA

Usage Non-RA

Transmission

facility rating

RA import: Usage Capacity Limit

Limit

Main portion of MIC

RAMaximum import

capability (MIC)

Contracted capacity

Capacity RA

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Table of contents

Introduction

Limit

Capacity

Usage

Summary

3

2

6

5

5

slides

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CAISO maximum import capability (MIC)A major portion of MIC is RA import capability, i.e. the “limit”

California ISO

Maximum import capability (MIC)

Note: The breakdown of RA import capability is estimated from tie-points’ possible association with source BAs

* “Maybe from NWPP”: These are imports through tie-points around the CA-NV-AZ border. Through these tie-points, import can come either from NWPP or elsewhere like Southwest

Maximum possible

CAISO RA import

MIC“Limit”

“Contract”

3.

2.

1.

Not from NWPP

From NWPP BANC+TIDC

From NWPP NEVP+PACE

From NWPP Northwest

Maybe from NWPP*

Source of MIC data: http://www.caiso.com/planning/Pages/ReliabilityRequirements/Default.aspx

http://www.caiso.com/planning/Pages/ReliabilityRequirements/Default.aspx

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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Historical data Estimates for future

MW

Limit of CAISO RA import (MW)

NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-NP? NWPP-BT

“Limit” of CAISO RA importEstimated portion of RA import capability from “NWPP-”

MIC

Limit Total RA import capability

Limit RA import capability from “NWPP-” (This is an approximate limit)

CAISO RA import capability is about 10,000 MW

Maybe from NWPP

Scope of “NWPP-”NWPP excluding CA BAAs

CAISO RA import capability from “NWPP-” is about 5,000 MW

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Table of contents

Introduction

Limit

Capacity

Usage

Summary

3

2

6

5

5

slides

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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Capacity of CAISO RA import (MW)

“Capacity” of CAISO RA import

According to MIC:

Maximum possible RA import

According to CIRA[Note]:

CAISO-contracted RA import capacity

Capacity

Limit

~7,000 MW

~3,000 MW

Monthly peak load drives the contracted RA capacity

There is an increasing trend of RA contracting (see next slide for detailed discussions)

[Note] CIRA (Customer Interface for Resource Adequacy) data are commercially sensitive and not publically available. To protect confidentiality, this analysis describes aggregated data

ISO Public

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Capacity average: Total (MW)

Dec Jan Feb Spacing Jun Jul Aug Sep

Trends of CAISO-contracted RA import capacitySummer and winter months

Winter Summer+

Winter

Sep

AugJul

Jun

Jan

DecFeb Winter

Late summer (early autumn)

Mid summer

Early summer

RA contracting increased

over the past few years

However, the increase was

only for summer months,

not for winter months

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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


According to MIC:

Maximum possible RA import

According to CIRA:

CAISO-contracted RA import capacity

Contract

Limit

~3,000 MW

~7,000 MW

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-NP? NWPP-BT Non-NWPP

Maybe from NWPP-NPFrom NWPP-NP

= + +?NWPP-

How much does CAISO-contracted RA capacity come from NWPP-?

See also Limit on Slide 8 and Usage on Slide 17

Limit Total

TotalCapacity~3,000 MW

Headroom

Limit From NWPP-Approximate

CapacityApproximate From NWPP-

~800 MW

Areas:

NWPP-NW: Northwest

NWPP-NP: NEVP+PACE

NWPP-BT: BANC+TIDC

Non-NWPP: Not from NWPP

“NWPP-”: NWPP excluding CA BAAs

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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Capacity of CAISO RA import (MW) in 2019


Capacity of CAISO RA import in year 2019

Areas:

NWPP-NW: Northwest

NWPP-NP: NEVP+PACE

NWPP-BT: BANC+TIDC



Maybe from NWPP-NPFrom NWPP-NPVery small, can hardly be seen on the chart

= + +?NWPP-

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Composition in percentages


Limit

Total Capacity

From NWPP-Capacity

Total

Limit From NWPP-

~3,000 MW

~800 MW

Headroom

See also Usage on Slide 18 and Slide 19

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66,405

0

30,000

60,000

90,000NWPP net load (MW)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000Capacity of CAISO RA import (MW)


Mon, Dec 16 Tue, Dec 17 Wed, Dec 18 Thu, Dec 19 Fri, Dec 20 Sat, Dec 21 Sun, Dec 22

Capacity of CAISO RA import in winter timeDuring NWPP’s winter peak in 2019

Dec 18, 2019 5pm

See also Usage on Slide 20

Limit

TotalCapacity

From NWPP-Capacity

Total

Limit From NWPP-

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69,501

0

30,000

60,000


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000Capacity of CAISO RA import (MW)


Mon, Sep 2 Tue, Sep 3 Wed, Sep 4 Thu, Sep 5 Fri, Sep 6 Sat, Sep 7 Sun, Sep 8

Capacity of CAISO RA import in summer timeDuring NWPP’s summer peak in 2019

5pmSep 5, 2019

See also Usage on Slide 21

Limit

TotalCapacity

From NWPP-Capacity

Total

Limit From NWPP-

~800 MW

~3,000 MW

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Table of contents

Introduction

Limit

Capacity

Usage

Summary

3

2

6

5

5

slides

ISO Public

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CAISO RA import (MW)

“Usage” of CAISO RA import

Usage data from 2015 to 2017 are not available

UsageNon-RA

UsageRA

LimitRA

CapacityRA

See also Capacity on Slide 10 and Slide 12[Note] Details of interchange schedules are commercially sensitive information. To protect confidentiality, this analysis describes aggregated data

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


CAISO RA import (MW) in 2019

Usage of CAISO RA import in 2019

LimitRA

CapacityRA

See also Capacity on Slide 13

RA

Non-RA Usage

Usage

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


CAISO RA import (MW) in 2019

NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-BT Non-NWPP

Usage of CAISO RA import in 2019 – Detailed breakdown

RA

Non-RA Usage

Usage

CapacityRA

LimitRA


Areas:

NWPP-NW: Northwest

NWPP-NP: NEVP+PACE

NWPP-BT: BANC+TIDC



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66,405

0

30,000

60,000


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000Usage of CAISO RA import (MW)


Mon, Dec 16 Tue, Dec 17 Wed, Dec 18 Thu, Dec 19 Fri, Dec 20 Sat, Dec 21 Sun, Dec 22

Usage of CAISO RA import in winter timeDuring NWPP’s winter peak in 2019

Dec 18, 2019 5pm


Usage

Usage

LimitRA

CapacityRA

Non-RA

RA

ISO Public

69,501

0

30,000

60,000


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000Usage of CAISO RA import (MW)


Mon, Sep 2 Tue, Sep 3 Wed, Sep 4 Thu, Sep 5 Fri, Sep 6 Sat, Sep 7 Sun, Sep 8

Usage of CAISO RA import in summer timeDuring NWPP’s summer peak in 2019

5pmSep 5, 2019


Non-RA

Usage

RA

Usage

LimitRA

CapacityRA

ISO Public

Table of contents

Introduction

Limit

Capacity

Usage

Summary

3

2

6

5

5 slides

ISO Public

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MW

CAISO RA import: Limit-Capacity-Usage

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1,561 1,360 1,414

614 2680

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MW

Headroom for possible more RA capacity to be contracted

Putting it all togetherRA import 1 of 4: From NWPP-NW (Northwest)

Usage

Capacity

Limit

Average

Maximum

Minimum

NWPP-NW

Amount of contracted RA import is significant

Limited headroom is left


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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MW


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2,0731,696

1,121 1,123 1,057

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MW


Putting it all togetherRA import 2 of 4: From NWPP-BT (BANC+TIDC)

Cont’d

Usage

Capacity

Limit

NWPP-BT

Amount of contracted RA import is insignificant

A lot of headroom is still available


ISO Public

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MW


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

308 253 440 359 2550

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MW


Putting it all togetherRA import 3 of 4: From NWPP-NP (NEVP+PACE)

Usage

Capacity

Limit

NWPP-NP

These contracts come either from NWPP-NP or Non-NWPP

Imagine X% of these contracts comes from NWPP-NP

That portion shall be added to the charts on the left

NWPP-NP

Non-NWPP

Cont’d

Amount of contracted RA import is insignificant

Headroom is still available


ISO Public

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MW


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1,8521,281 1,351

954 720

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MW


Putting it all togetherRA import 4 of 4: From Non-NWPP (Other area)

Usage

Capacity

Limit

Non-NWPP

Average

Maximum

Minimum

These contracts come either from NWPP-NP or Non-NWPP

Imagine Y% of these contracts comes from Non-NWPP

That portion shall be added to the charts on the left

NWPP-NP

Non-NWPP

Cont’d

Amount of contracted RA import is significant

Headroom is still available


ISO Public

Summary

This work reviewed multi-year historical data of CAISO RA import

Historical patterns and trends are analyzed

“Limit”, “Capacity” and “Usage” are investigated

Past-years’ historical data do not necessarily reflect future trends

Caution shall be exercised when extrapolating data into future years

Breakdown is shown for portions of RA export from NWPP to CAISO

ISO Public

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THANK YOU

Contact:

Xiaobo Wang, PhD

Senior Advisor

E-mail: [email protected]

Phone: (916) 608-1264

Historical RA export from NWPP to CAISO · 2020. 5. 29. · BANC + TIDC NWPP WECC BAAs Source:...

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