Historical land use and vegetation condition
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Transcript of Historical land use and vegetation condition
Historical land use and vegetation condition
Richard Thackway
Presentation to SEWPAC Canberra 22 January 2013
Outline
• Drivers for vegetation condition information• Concepts and definitions• Background to VAST framework• Why VAST-2 was developed• VAST-2 methodology • Case studies• Current applications• Lessons • Next steps
Drivers for information on changes in vegetation condition
• NRM policy and program design e.g.
– Implementing guidelines for conservation and management of threatened species
EPBC ACT
– Reporting on the performance of investment e.g. changing LMP to improve
landscape connectivity
– Assessing land acquisitions for the National Reserve System
• Resource condition of native vegetation e.g.
– A measure of sustainable use and management (public & private)
• Monitoring and reporting and improvement e.g.
– National, state & regional reporting e.g. SoE & SOFR
– Reporting 5 yearly outcomes Regional Forest Agreements
What is vegetation transformation?
• Change over time as a consequence of impacts of land use and land management practices
• Change recorded relative to a reference state for a plant community – Structure– Composition – Regenerative capacity/potential
• Change recorded at sites and across regions/landscapes
Vegetation condition
Based on Cannon (1987)
Baseline for assessing change First contact with explorers
Based on Cannon (1987), Readers Digest. Plotted using IBRA regions
Models of ecosystem change
Source: Adamson and Fox (1982).
Time
Chan
ge in
veg
etati
on in
dica
tor
Settlement
10000
Reference
Occupation
Relaxation
Anthropogenic change
Net impact
Time
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Based on Hamilton, Brown & Nolan 2008. FWPA PRO7.1050. pg 18Land use impacts on biodiversity and Life Cycle Analysis
Reference
Models of ecosystem changeCh
ange
in v
eget
ation
indi
cato
r
Background to Vegetation Assets States and Transitions (VAST) framework
National spatial data initiatives • National Reserve System (NRS):
Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation of Australia (IBRA)• National Land and Water Resources Audit (NLWRA): Vegetation
of Australia; – National Vegetation Information System (NVIS); and – Indicators of resource condition (vegetation extent, type & condition)
• Major information gaps re the condition of vegetation (spatial & temporal)
Pre-European vegetation
Source: NVIS MVGSEWPAC
Present vegetation – 2007 – snap shot
Source: NVIS MVGSEWPAC
Assessing change using
NVIS MVG
Pre-European - Present vegetation
Naracoorte Coastal Plain (IBRA)
Cleared
Remnant
Limited value because gross changei.e. 1788-present
Present land use – 1992-2009 – snap shots
Tracking changes in land use
Source: ABARES 2010
Very limited value because change is also gross
• Mainly intensification of agricultural production• Some conversion to conservation and minimal use
Why was VAST developed?
• 2001 recognised need to improve discrimination used in NVIS mapping – either remnant or cleared (NLWRA & ESCAVI)
• 2005 recognised need to develop an indicator for reporting landscape condition of vegetation types (NLWRA & ESCAVI)
• Land use change mapping is ‘too blunt an instrument’ to assess the range of impacts on a plant community (NLWRA)
• Opportunity to develop and test a framework based on relative impacts of land management on vegetation (NLWRA)
Vegetation Assets States and Transitions (VAST) framework
VIVIVIIIIII0
Native vegetationcover
Non-native vegetationcover
Increasing vegetation modification from unmodified state
Transitions = trend
Vegetation thresholds
Reference for each veg type (NVIS)
VAST - A framework for compiling & reporting vegetation condition
Condition states
Residual or unmodified
Naturally bare
Modified Transformed Replaced -Adventive
Replaced - managed
Replaced - removed
Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90
Diagnostic attributes of VAST states:• Vegetation structure• Species composition• Regenerative capacity
NVIS
Vegetation condition – a snapshot
Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90
NB: Input dataset biophysical naturalness reclassified using VAST framework
Change using VAST
and NVIS MVG
Change is based on a gradient of modification
VAST and Landscape Alteration Levels
Variegated
60-90% retained
Fragmented
10-60% retained
Relictual
<10% retained
Intact
>90%
Native
Unmodified
Modified and retained
Highly modified
Destroyed
VAST I ResidualVAST 0 Naturally Bare
VAST II Modified
VAST III Transformed
VAST IV Replaced – Adventive, VAST V Replaced – Managed VAST VI Removed
Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90
McIntyre & Hobbs (1999) Cons. Biology 13, 1282-92
Landscape alteration levels – a snapshot
LALs derived using a 2.5 kmInput VAST national 1 km
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Intact Variegated Fragmented RelictualLandscape Alteration Level
Ave
rag
e P
rop
ort
ion
(%
) o
f V
AS
T C
on
dit
ion
Sta
te
Residual*
Modified
Transformed
Managed
Removed
Mutendeudzi and ThackwayBRS 2010
Why VAST-2 was developed?
• To implement the ‘T’ (Transition) of the VAST framework– i.e. track changes in vegetation condition over time
• To propose a standardised national system for compiling data on cause & effect of management on native plant communities
• To propose a simple reporting system - show graphical changes in vegetation condition over time
Primary purpose of VAST-2 – monitoring and reporting
Site-based survey plots e.g. state level plant communities database
Project sitese.g. regional body
Network of paired sites e.g. NSW MERI
Permanent network of research sitese.g. NSW forest ecology
PROCESS MONITORING
RESOURCE CONDITION
MONITORING
PERFORMANCE MONITORING
FUNDAMENTAL DATA‘Wide & shallow’ e.g. 30,000 sites
e.g. 3,000 sites
e.g. 300 sites
‘Narrow & deep’e.g. 30 long term monitoring sites
VAST-2 methodology
Compile historical records at sites for selected plant communities
• Land use• Land management practices• Natural events e.g. droughts, fires, floods, cyclones, average
rainfall 1900-2012 etc• Observed interactions e.g. rabbits, sheep and drought• Observations and quantitative measures of effects
– Include written, oral, artistic, photographic and remote sensing
General process for tracking changes in vegetation condition over time (VAST-2)
Step 1aUse a checklist of 22 indicators to compile
changes in LU & LMP and plant community responses over time
Transformation site
Step 1cSynthesise and evaluate transformation of plant community using 22 indicators
Step 1bEvaluate the influence of climate, soil and
landform on the historical record
Step 3aLiterature review to determine the
baseline conditions for 22 indicators
Step 3cCompile indicator data for 22 indicators for reference site
Step 3bEvaluate the influence of climate, soil and landform for the reference site
Step 2Derive the responses of all
22 indicators
Step 4Derive the reference
states for 22 indicators
Reference state/sites
Step 5Score all 22 indicators for ‘transformation site’ relative to the
‘reference site’. 0 = major change; 1 = no change
Step 6Derive weighted indices for the three components for the ‘transformation
site’ i.e. regenerative capacity (58%), vegetation structure (27%) and species composition (18%) by adding predefined indicators
Step 7Add the indices for the three components to generate total transformation
index for the ‘transformation site’ for each year of the historical record . Validate using Expert Knowledge
Condition components
(3)
Attribute groups
(10)
Description of loss or gain relative to pre settlement indicator reference state (22)
Regenerative
capacity
Fire regime Change in the area /size of fire foot prints
Change in the number of fire starts
Soil hydrology Change in the soil surface water availability
Change in the ground water availability
Soil physical state
Change in the depth of the A horizon
Change in soil structure.
Soil nutrient state
Nutrient stress – rundown (deficiency) relative to soil fertility
Nutrient stress – excess (toxicity) relative to soil fertility
Soil biological state
Change in the recyclers responsible for maintaining soil porosity and nutrient recycling
Change in surface organic matter, soil crusts
Reproductive potential
Change in the reproductive potential of overstorey structuring species
Change in the reproductive potential of understorey structuring species
Vegetation structure
Overstorey structure
Change in the overstorey top height (mean) of the plant community
Change in the overstorey foliage projective cover (mean) of the plant community
Change in the overstorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the stand
Understorey structure
Change in the understorey top height (mean) of the plant community
Change in the understorey ground cover (mean) of the plant community
Change in the understorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the plant
Species Compositi
on
Overstorey composition
Change in the densities of overstorey species functional groups
Change in the relative number of overstorey species (richness) of the plant community
Understorey composition
Change in the densities of understorey species functional groups
Change in the relative number of understorey species (richness) of the plant community
1
3
10
22
Dia
gnos
ticatt
ribut
es
VegetationTransformation
score
Attrib
ute
grou
ps
VegetationStructure
(27%)
Overstorey
(3)
Understorey
(3)
SpeciesComposition
(18%)
(2)
UnderstoreyOverstorey
(2)
RegenerativeCapacity
(55%)
Fire
(2)
Reprodpotent
(2)
Soil
Hydrology
(2)
Biology
(2)
Nutrients
(2)
Structure
(2) Indicators
VAST-2 – benchmark scoring of the effects of use and management of native veg (indicators) over time
Certainty level standards used to compile historic record
Certainty level standards
Spatial precision(Scale)
Temporal precision(Year of observation)
Attribute accuracy(Land use, land
management practices, effects on condition)
HIGH "Definite”
Reliable direct quantitative data.
Code: 1
Reliable direct quantitative data.
Code: 4
Reliable direct quantitative data.
Code: 7
MEDIUM "Probable
"
Direct (with qualifications) or strong
indirect data.
Code: 2
Direct (with qualifications) or strong
indirect data.
Code: 5
Direct (with qualifications) or strong
indirect data.
Code: 8
LOW "Possible"
Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory
observations. More data needed.
Code: 3
Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory
observations. More data needed.
Code: 6
Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory
observations. More data needed.
Code: 9
Reliability levels of attribute information
Quadrat or pixel
Land unit
Land system
Sub-bioregion
Bioregion
Certainty levels
Coarse
Fine
Low
Low
Medium
Medium
High
Sources of information
Granularity of information
Case studies VAST-2
Qld, WT Bioregion, Wooroonooran Nature Refuge Reference pre-European: Complex Mesophyll Vine Forest
Clearing & conversion to
pasture
Start of grazing pasture
End grazing
pastures
Weed removal - Lantana
Logging Weeds & rainforest invading
VAST classes
31 ha conversion of lantana thickets to rainforest
Indigenous people manage the area
NSW, NNC Bioregion, Big Scrub, Rocky Creek DamReference pre-European: Complex notophyll vine forest
Clearing and conversion to pasture
Start of grazing exotic pasture
End grazing pastures
Removal of weeds Lantana - Privet
Commenced monitoring of regeneration
VAST classes
Indigenous people manage the area
NSW, NNC Bioregion, Big Scrub, Tintenbar Reference pre-European: Complex notophyll vine forest
Unmodified and intact rainforest
Clearing and conversion
Start of grazing exotic pasture
End of grazing pastures
Rainforest seedlings established under dense Camphor forest
Start of ploughing & cropping
VAST classes
Indigenous people manage the area
Invasion of weeds including Camphor laurel
ACT, SEH Bioregion, Blundells Flat, ex-coupe 424, Reference pre-European: Brown Barrel open forest
Site left to rehabilitate
Area burnt by severe wildfire killed all pines. Dead pines, pushed, heaped and burnt
1st rotation Pinus radiata planted
Coupe ripped and mounded. 2nd rotation P. radiata planted
Water catchment area declared for Canberra
VAST classes
Indigenous people manage the area
NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7cReference pre-European: Sydney Blue Gum High Forest
Commenced managing area for recreation. Weed control. Arboretum abandoned
Cleared & sown to improved pasture for grazing & orchard
Commenced grazing native pastures
Indigenous people manage the area
Area gazetted as State Forest, commenced planting arboretum
Area logged for building houses and fences
Commenced managing area as a future production forest. Weed control
Explorers traverse the area and site selected
Ceased grazing. Area purchased as a future working forest
Commenced managing area primarily for recreation
Ceased grazing. Purchased & declared as a State forest
Site fenced. Commenced continuous stocking with cattle
Commenced grazing cattle
Indigenous people manage the area
Cleared and commenced regrowing forest as a future forest production
Tree cover thinned for cattle grazing
Initiated 1st hazard reduction burn
Trees logged for housing, fences & fire wood
NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 8b, 9a, 9b Reference pre-European: Sydney Blue Gum High Forest
Impact and adoption of this research
• Examples of invited case studies (in press):– 2013 State of the Forests Report (DAFF) and – National Accounts (BOM)
• Examples of invited case studies (in prep):• Great Western Woodlands (WA DEC)• Recreation and production forestry (Forests NSW)• Mine site restoration (ALCOA Bauxite mine WA)• Brigalow recovery plan (UQ BBS bioregion)
VAST-2 Lessons
Useful tool for:• engaging ecologists, academics, land managers, environmental historians,
educators because it builds on VAST, which is widely accepted and used • synthesizing information and ‘telling the story’ of vegetation
transformation since settlement • reporting ‘telling the story’ progress toward vegetation condition targets
Limited value as a tool for:• assessing multiple benefits in planning future landscapes e.g. carbon
sequestration and biodiversity at least cost• assessing impacts of climate change on managed plant communities
Next steps
• Publish a journal paper (in prep)• Investigate development of an ‘app’ to enable citizen
scientists to more easily compile the historical record:– Land use and management practices– Observed effects of use and management
• Promote key elements of the VAST-2 system in NRM citizen science e.g. national Land Observation Partnership Program
• Investigate potential for modelling 22 indicators at landscape scale over time
Potential to use VAST-2 system to predict likely effects of changing land management at paired sites
Change due to land management
Change due to other causes including natural processes
VAST
-2 tr
ansf
orm
ation
inde
x
100
80
60
40
20
0
time n time n +
Production forestry continues unchanged
Change from production forestry to conservation
More information
• VAST-2 sites plotted using Google earth http://aceas.org.au/portal/ • Digital Object Identifier (DOI) for VAST-2 sites
http://portal.tern.org.au/search#!/q=(vegetation%20transformation)/p=1/tab=collection/num=10
• VAST-2 Handbook and brochure http://www.vasttransformations.com/
Acknowledgements
• Ongoing research support of the University of Queensland, Department of Geography Planning and Environmental Management
• TERN ACEAS funded my sabbatical at the University of Queensland, Brisbane in 2010-11
• CSIRO Ecosystems Sciences for hosting me as a visiting research scientist, Canberra in 2010-11
• Many public and private land managers, land management agencies, consultants and researchers have provided data and information