Hispanic Voter Research Project

8/7/2019 Hispanic Voter Research Project

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dime con quin andas...A survey exploring the nature of

Hispanic social networksand their potential to impact turnout

An ongoing research project for the

Texas Democratic Trust

Saturday, January 15, 2011


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Latinos are the sleeping giant ofTexas politics a phraserepeated so often it has become aclich.

Nearly 37 percent of the statespopulation of about 24.8 millionpeople is Latino, but almost anypolitical expert will tell you that

the group does not fully exerciseits strength in elections.Pinpointing if and when Latinoswill begin wielding their voting



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hispanic turnout

51%colorado

nevada 52%

new mexico 54%

texas 38%



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whats different

about nm latinos?

Doa Ana County El Paso County

64% 48%

NM

TX

(Source: El Paso Elections Office and Doa Ana Elections Office)



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The surprising power of our socialnetworks and how they shape our lives.

connected

Nicholas A. Christakis, MD, PhDJames H. Fowler, PhD



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They saw a correlation between people who are

directly connected via a common friend and also

between people who are indirectly connected via

a common friend. In other words, if you vote,

then it increases the likelihood that your friends

friends vote.

connected on voter turnout cascades

People do not decide in isolation whether or not theywill vote.

Controlling for alternative sources of similarbehavior, such as having the same income,

education, ideology, or level of political interest,

the typical subject is about 15% more likely to

vote if one of his discussion partners votes.



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Predictors of Voting

Age Education Family History



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0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

65+

51-64

36-50

19-35


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0% 10% 20% 30% 40%50%

Grad School

Bachelors

Some College

High School

Did not complete High School

AnglosHispanics

Hispanics are times more likely to drop out ofhigh school

Anglos are times more likely to graduate college

education

Source: 2008 ACS

2.8

5



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talking politics

If those in your social network vote, and make that

known, then there is a much higher probability that

you will vote also. We are all influenced by those

who we view as similar to us.

It's the Conversations, Stupid!The Link between Social Interaction and Political Choiceby Valdis Krebs



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with the help of Annies

List, commissioned:Project New West to conduct

ethnographies.

The Texas Democratic Trust,Knowing the potential and the obstacles,

Pineda Consulting to conduct a survey

exploring the social networks of Hispanics andthe diferences between high and lowpropensity voters.



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la meta final:

to get hispanics who vote to

influence hispanics who dont



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To do that we need to know:

Do their networks intersect? If so, where?

Who among each group is likely to care and talk

politics?

What are the factors that keep the conversation

going?

HP LP



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if talking politics = increased turnout

What Latinos talk about.we explored



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exploring what latinos talk aboutWhat do they talk about with their closest family

members and friends?What issues relating to politics have they talked

about most recently, and why?

Are they likely to share their political opinionswith others? And if so, what separates talkers

from non-talkers?



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Latino attitudes on politics and voting. What Latinos talk about.

we explored




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exploring latino attitudes

on politics and votingAgreement with value statements:

Voting as civic duty.

Faith in the system and that their vote will becounted.

That sometimes they dont feel motivated to

vote.Why, in their own words, do they sometimes feel

not motivated to vote.



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Who Latinos talk with.

What Latinos talk about.we explored

Latino attitudes on politics and voting.




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exploring who latinos talk withHow many people do they talk to about

important issues?

Who are the 1 or 2 people in their lives mostinterested in politics? And what is their:

Level of respect for them?

Frequency of communication?

Ethnicity?



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Latino attitudes on politics and voting. What Latinos talk about.

we explored

Who Latinos talk with.

The role culture and ethnicity play inLatino lives.




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exploring the role culture and

ethnicity play in the life of texas latinos

Diversity within family/friends/co-workernetworks.

Interest in politics among family/friends/co-workers.

Importance of Hispanic identity by itself and

generationally.Perceptions on being Hispanic in contrast to

Anglos (views on family and voting).



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methodology

June 20 - July 1 2010.date conducted800 Hispanics with a history ofvoting in Bexar, Dallas, Harrisand Hidalgo counties.

Sample was drawn from a list ofvoters.

100 interviews of 08-onlyvoters were conducted on cellphones.

survey sample

3margin of error

survey languageInterviews were conducted by abilingual phone bank.

sample weightSample weighted by county, high/lowpropensity of vote and 08-onlyvoters.



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definitions

Hispanics with voting history.hispanic voters

high propensity votersHispanic voters who voted in the last twogeneralelections and voted in any of the last 7constitutional amendment or primaryelections.

ORHispanic voters who voted in either of thelast two general elections and voted in 3of the last 7 constitutional amendment orprimary elections.

low propensity votersHispanics voters who are not high propensity voters.

high density precinctsPrecincts where 30 percent or more ofregistered voters are tagged as Hispanic.

low density precinctsPrecincts where less than 30 percent ofregistered voters are tagged as Hispanic.



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what latinos talk about



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talking with closest family

members and friends

politics and government

relationships

religion

work issues

raising children

personal finance

40%

54%

50%

49%

61%

33%

58%

49%

41%

52%

53%

29%

HP

13 point gapbetween high

propensity and lowpropensity Hispanic

voters in talkingpolitics.

Latino Republicansout talk Latino

Democrats by 26points when talking

about politics.



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attention paid to politics

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

39%24%

37%

35%

19%31%

5% 9%

High Propensity

Low Propensity

A lot A fair amount Not muchNone at all



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0% 13% 25% 38% 50%

Job Market

Health Reform

Wars

High School Dropout

Immigration

High PropensityLow PropensityLP Spanish at Home

most talked about political issue



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0% 8% 15% 23% 30%

Worried about discrimination

Efect on my family/friends

Lack of jobs is a problem

People need health care

Against the war

Everybodys talking about it

High PropensityLow PropensityLP Spanish at Home

why talked about political issue



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0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

43%

37%

56%

61%

High PropensityLow Propensity

ShareKeep Private

share political decisions



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church

kids at homecollege gradmen 18-59

similarities between high and

low propensity talkers

mostly dem

2 primaries

HP

employed

LP

64% 64%

66% 69%68% 64%66% 67%

61% 64%18-49 64% 62%married men 65% 62%

2nd generation 62% 60%64% 62%

HP LP

63% 66%



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attitudes on politics and voting



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getting beyond socially

acceptable responses

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

High Propensity

Low Propensity

Strongly agreeSomewhat agreeSomewhat disagreeStrongly disagree

important civic duty



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0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

38% 38%

36% 35%

13% 15%

12% 9%



faith in fairness of theelection system



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0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

21%20%

21%

35%17%

12%

40% 31%



sometimes i am notmotivated to vote



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0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Candidates

Empty promises

Not convenient

Dont like choices

Not enough info

High PropensityLow PropensityLP age 65+top reasons not motivated



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who latinos talk with



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entre familia

1 or 2 people most interested in politics

64%High Propensity

68%Low Propensity73%LP Women 18-49

family



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children can be key influencers

HP: 13%LP: 17% HP: 9%LP: 8%

1 in 4 is likely to be a child.

son daughter



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level of respect and

frequency of communication

a great deal of respect

61% High Propensity

59% Low Propensity

at least once a week, if not every day

83% High Propensity

83% Low Propensity



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hispanic social networks

0% 18% 35% 53% 70%

61%

48%

36%

68%

59%

45%

Married other Hispanics

Friends are Hispanics

Coworkers are Hispanics




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political networks0% 13% 25% 38% 50%

47%

41%

46%

34%

46%

46%

33%

35%

Family interested in politics

Family has the same political views

Friends interested in politics

Friends have the same political views




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role of culture and ethnicity



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hispanic identity

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

64%

71%

31% 25%

High Propensity

Low Propensity

PrideDoesnt define me

A. Being Hispanic is a

matter of personaland cultural pride tome.

B. Being Hispanicdoesnt really defineme.



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B. Being Hispanicmatters at least asmuch to me as itdoes the generation

general hispanic identity

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

44%39%

45%53%

High Propensity Low Propensity

More to my parentsAs much to me

A. Being Hispanic

means more to myparents and theirgeneration than it does



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B. Anglos care moreabout family thanHispanics.

cares more about family

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

67%65%

4%5%


HispanicsAnglos

A. Hispanics caremore about family

than Anglos.



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B. Anglos care moreabout governmentand politics thanHispanics.

cares more about politics

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

51%

57%

18%

19%


AnglosHispanics

A. Hispanics caremore government

and politics thanAnglos.



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social network overlap

(in thousands)


household snapshot


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household snapshot508 Sendera St.

(North bexar county)HH Count age propensity votes last first SE PCT4 21 NVH 0 Campos Jamie F 3039

4 23 NVH 0 Campos Jonathan M 3039

4 52 HI 3 Campos Mary F 3039

4 58 HI 4 Campos Gilbert M 3039

510 e malley blvd(south bexar county)

HH Count age propensity votes last first SE PCT

4 20 NVH 0 Moreno Matthew M 1054

4 21 LO 2 Moreno Andrew M 1054

4 44 LO 2 Moreno Miroslava F 1054

4 44 HI 3 Moreno Robert M 1054



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take awaystargets

High Propensity Voters in High DensityAreas can play a key role in spreadingmessages.

Dont ignore Latino men who are morelikely to share their political opinions.

Younger Latinos, especially those who havegone to college, can be key influencers.



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take aways

shaping messagesHispanic pride and identity plays a large role in

shaping the environment and perceptions of Latino

voters, especially low propensity voters.Latino elected ocials, candidates, and community

leaders can make for more trusted messengers.

Connecting political messages to raising childrencan make them more easily integrated into what

Latinos already talk about.Remember Latinos talk more about political issues

that directly afect their family and friends personally,whether that be immigration, jobs or health care.

Hispanic Voter Research Project

Documents

Transcript of Hispanic Voter Research Project