Hilkka SUMMA European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development Climate change and EU...

download Hilkka SUMMA European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development Climate change and EU agriculture

of 24

  • date post

    28-Dec-2015
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    219
  • download

    0

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Hilkka SUMMA European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development Climate change and EU...

  • Hilkka SUMMAEuropean Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural DevelopmentClimate change and EU agriculture

    *

    European Countryside Movement Brussels 13.11.2008Climate change is happening observed effectsImpacts on agriculture EU Climate policy The CAP and Climate changeOutline

  • Climate change is happening and accelerating

    *

    European Countryside Movement Brussels 13.11.2008

    Many climate impacts are observed today, also in EuropeEurope has warmed (+ 1C) faster than global average (almost 0,8C) Global mean temperatures continue to rise. Rates of surface warming increased since mid-1970sThe 1990-1999 decade has been the warmest of the century. The 10 hottest years on record have occurred since 1991Precipitations increased in northern latitudes over the period 1900-2005 and decreased in the tropics and subtropics since the 1970sExtreme weather events have become more frequent, severe, and costly in all parts of the worldIncreased frequency of heavy precipitationsMore intense and longer droughts since 1970Climate change is not a projection

    *

    30as Jornadas de productos fitosanitarios - Barcelona 21 October 2008

    *

    European Countryside Movement Brussels 13.11.2008Trend in mean annual rainfall during 1900-1998Significant decrease of rainfall during the last century in the Mediterranean area

    *

    Projected precipitation changesChanges in yearly and seasonal precipitation patterns too much too little winter rainfall and in summer variability of rainfall in North-West EU, but little change in overall precipitation in yearly average precipitation in Southern areas

    European Countryside Movement Brussels 13.11.2008

  • EU agriculture will also be affected

    *

    European Countryside Movement Brussels 13.11.2008++---From Tubiello, IIASA, 2007Impacts on Agriculture

    *

    European Countryside Movement Brussels 13.11.2008Agriculture is highly exposed to climate changeSome positive effects (north), but mostly adverse impacts (south)The most vulnerable: Mediterranean, south-easternThe most critical trends:Future precipitation patterns (water stress)Incidence of extreme weather events In the medium term (2020-2030), significant impacts from increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events (droughts, heat waves, storms, floods)Progressively negative impacts after 2050 as temperature risesBiophysical CC impacts on agriculture (1)

    *

    European Countryside Movement Brussels 13.11.2008Indirect effects through impacts on physical and biological systemsSoil conditions (organic matter, erosion risk)Warming will increase the risk of disease and change pest patternsEnvironmental side effects: water quality Increased water stress:Increased irrigation water demand (not only in current irrigated areas)Reduced water availability in many river basinsNeed to save water and adaptive actions (irrigators) Biophysical CC impacts on agriculture (2)

    *

    European Countryside Movement Brussels 13.11.2008The projected climatic changes will affect:crop yields (level, stability), risk crop failures livestock managementin the medium term, shifts in crop locations Diverse territorial impactsrisks for farm income and higher income variabilityrisks for food supply in some parts of Europe land abandonment risk increasing disparities between EU rural regionsVulnerability to climate change increased by:International competition, trade liberalisation Socio- economic challenges (ageing, urbanisation)Socio-economic aspects

    *

    30as Jornadas de productos fitosanitarios - Barcelona 21 October 2008Climate Change: crop yield projectionsA1-mediumB2-mediumSource: JRC/IES EAGLE study

    *

    Effects 2003 heat wave and drought on wheat yieldsYields have increased in the last 40 years (technological progress)Yield (and output) are two of the main components of risk in agriculture and often related to adverse weather conditions, plant diseases and pests

    *

    EU Climate policy The CAP and Climate change

    *

    European Countryside Movement brussels 13.11.2008Emphasis on commitments on GHG reductionsKyoto commitments: 8% reduction by 2012 (EU-15) Communication: Limiting global cc to 2C (2007)Council conclusions (March 2007): commitment to 20% reduction by 2020 30% within an international agreement Climate and energy package january 2008:Review of the Emission Trading System (ETS) Effort Sharing in non-ETS sectors proposal for decisionCommunication on post-Kyoto commitments in preparation (The Road to Copenhagen)

    Adaptation as an emerging policy areaGreen Paper on adaptation (July 2007)White Paper EU adaptation strategy (early 2009)EU climate policy

    *

    July 2007- EU Green Paper- launches the debate on adapting to climate change Concludes that adaptation efforts need to be stepped up at all levels and in all sectors and need to be well-coordinatedEarly adaptation reduces costsIntegrate adaptation in existing environmental and sectoral EU policies and Community funding programmes, including the CAP Expand knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation options Develop EU coordinated adaptation strategies. Early 2009: Communication (White Paper) proposals for an EU adaptation StrategyClimate adaptation emerging policy field at EU levelEuropean Countryside Movement Brussels 13.11.2008

    *

    European Countryside Movement Brussels 13.11.2008Double challenge:Reduction of GHG emissions from agricultureAdaptation to impacts of climate change Contribution to mitigation:Emissions from agriculture: 20% reduction 1990-2006 (all sectors 8%)A further 15% reduction projected by 2010Evolution of the CAP: less incentives for intensive agriculture Environmental legislation: Water protection (WFD), emission ceilings (NEC)Cross-compliance GAEC for soil protectionCAP and Climate change

    *

    Main drivers of the declining emissions trend in agricultureN fertilisersCattleEuropean Countryside Movement Brussels 13.11.2008

    EEA Fig 71, 72, 73

    Source: EEA GHG emissions trends and projections in Europe 2007, Annex, A.1.5- Agriculture

    EU-151990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

    Cattle numbers (1000)90197877628562584802847568511985311838438332983211819578155679523784997736876672

    CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation136177133035131310131006131166131344132227130654130295130128128413127693124980124228122829121830

    199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

    EU-15 Cattle numbers100979594949495939292919088878685

    100989696969697969696949492919089

    EU-271990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

    Cattle numbers (1000)1197801144051087151045731033871029881027751010309957198711965009557393414923379081790208

    CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation184637176889169536163919161980161041161192159235158233156939153760152160149320148514146454145691

    199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

    EU-27 Cattle numbers100969187868686848382818078777675

    100969289888787868685838281807979

    EU-15

    Gg CO2 eqin 1000

    CH4 emissionsCattle numbersCH4 emissions19902005CH4 emissions from cattle19902005

    Austria8678-8Austria37623233-14%Austria170144-15%

    Belgium8583-1Belgium45563850-15%Belgium205172-16%

    Denmark8169-12Denmark32592630-19%Denmark140106-25%

    Finland8271-12Finland19181577-18%Finland4838-20%

    France90900France3065327632-10%France13411214-9%

    Germany7667-9Germany2408318342-24%Germany1078807-25%

    Greece10111414Greece286628891%Greece41448%

    Ireland971047Ireland93389049-3%Ireland394390-1%

    Italy8981-8Italy1217810852-11%Italy478413-14%

    Luxembourg80865Luxembourg197158-20%Luxembourg97-21%

    Netherlands8477-7Netherlands75256345-16%Netherlands322270-16%

    Portugal116104-12Portugal2622303816%Portugal8610218%

    Spain11512712Spain117801349815%Spain30839127%

    Sweden93931Sweden30202804-7%Sweden130120-8%

    UK8786-1United Kingdom1842115934-13%United Kingdom642570-11%

    EU-158985-4EU-15136177121830-11%EU-1553934788-11%

    Bulgaria3743Bulgaria37841414-63%Bulgaria10045-55%

    Cyprus107105Cyprus1591707%Cyprus443%

    Czech Republic5040Czech Republic48692413-50%Czech Republic221109-51%

    Estonia4033Estonia1112444-60%Estonia5020-60%

    Hungary5145Hungary29001473-49%Hungary10750-53%

    Latvia2827Latvia2057578-72%Latvia9426-72%

    Lithuania3734Lithuania32891226-63%Lithuania15155-63%

    Malta1820Malta346182%Malta1175%

    Poland5755Poland155988948-43%Poland662390-41%

    Romania4845Romania114865550-52%Romania436198-54%

    Slovakia3834Slovakia2441929-62%Slovakia10740-63%

    Slovenia9085Slovenia731656-10%Slovenia3329-13%

    EU277975EU27184637145691-21%EU2773595757-22%

    18463714569173595757

    Source: CRF, Eurostat136177121830

    Cattle numbers (1000)19902005

    Austria25842011-22%

    Belgium32482698-17%

    Denmark22391544-31%

    Finland1360959-29%

    France2153719451-10%

    Germany1948813036-33%

    Greece62671714%

    Ireland596962124%

    Italy77526252-19%

    Luxembourg217186-14%

    Netherlands49263799-23%

    Portugal137314234%

    Spain5079642627%

    Sweden17181605-7%

    UK1207910353-14%

    EU-159019776672-15%

    Bulgaria1516647-57%

    Cyprus55585%

    Czech Republic35321397-60%

    Estonia758250-67%

    Hungary1613720-55%

    Latvia1439385-73%

    Lithuania2322800-66%

    Malta0%

    Poland100495483-45%

    Romania62042817-55%

    Slovakia1563528-66%

    Slovenia533453-15%

    EU2711978090208-25%

    9019776672

    CH4 emissionsCattle numbers

    Latvia2827

    Lithuania3734

    Bulgaria3743

    Slovakia3834

    Estonia4033

    Romania4845

    Czech Republic5040

    Hungary5145