Hilkka SUMMA

European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development

Climate change and EU agriculture

2European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008

1) Climate change is happening – observed effects

2) Impacts on agriculture

3) EU Climate policy – The CAP and Climate change

Outline

Climate change is happening and accelerating …

4European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008

► Many climate impacts are observed today, also in Europe► Europe has warmed (+ 1°C) faster than global average (almost

0,8°C) ► Global mean temperatures continue to rise. Rates of surface

warming increased since mid-1970s► The 1990-1999 decade has been the warmest of the century. The

10 hottest years on record have occurred since 1991► Precipitations increased in northern latitudes over the period

1900-2005 and decreased in the tropics and subtropics since the 1970s

► Extreme weather events have become more frequent, severe, and costly in all parts of the world– Increased frequency of heavy precipitations– More intense and longer droughts since 1970

Climate change is not a projection

530as Jornadas de productos fitosanitarios - Barcelona 21 October 2008

6European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008

Trend in mean annual rainfall during 1900-1998

Significant decrease of rainfall during the last century in the Mediterranean area

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Projected precipitation changes

Changes in yearly and seasonal precipitation patterns too much too little

winter rainfall and in summer

variability of rainfall in North-West EU, but little change in overall precipitation

in yearly average precipitation in Southern areas

European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008

EU agriculture will also be affected…

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POSSIBLE DRAWBACKS

Longer growingseason

Carbon dioxidefertilization

Morefrequentdroughts

Pest

Heatstress

CO 2

Fastergrowingperiods

Increasedflooding andsalinization

Increasedprecipitation

+ +

---

From Tubiello, IIASA, 2007

Impacts on Agriculture

10European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008

► Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change

► Some positive effects (north), but mostly adverse impacts (south)

► The most vulnerable: Mediterranean, south-eastern

► The most critical trends: Future precipitation patterns (water stress) Incidence of extreme weather events

► In the medium term (2020-2030), significant impacts from increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events (droughts, heat waves, storms, floods)

► Progressively negative impacts after 2050 as temperature rises

Biophysical CC impacts on agriculture (1)

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► Indirect effects through impacts on physical and biological systems

– Soil conditions (organic matter, erosion risk)

– Warming will increase the risk of disease and change pest patterns

► Environmental side effects: water quality

► Increased water stress:

Increased irrigation water demand (not only in current irrigated areas)

Reduced water availability in many river basins Need to save water and adaptive actions

(irrigators)

Biophysical CC impacts on

agriculture (2)

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► The projected climatic changes will affect:

- crop yields (level, stability), risk crop failures

- livestock management

- in the medium term, shifts in crop locations ► Diverse territorial impacts

- risks for farm income and higher income variability

- risks for food supply in some parts of Europe

- land abandonment risk

- increasing disparities between EU rural regions► Vulnerability to climate change increased by:

International competition, trade liberalisation Socio- economic challenges (ageing, urbanisation)

Socio-economic aspects

1330as Jornadas de productos fitosanitarios - Barcelona 21 October 2008

Climate Change: crop yield projections

A1-medium B2-medium

Source: JRC/IES EAGLE study

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Effects 2003 heat wave and drought on wheat yields

• Yields have increased in the last 40 years (technological progress)

• Yield (and output) are two of the main components of risk in agriculture and often related to adverse weather conditions, plant diseases and pests

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EU Climate policy –The CAP and Climate change

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► Emphasis on commitments on GHG reductions

- Kyoto commitments: 8% reduction by 2012 (EU-15)

- Communication: “Limiting global cc to 2°C” (2007)

- Council conclusions (March 2007): commitment to 20% reduction by 2020 – 30% within an international agreement

- “Climate and energy package” january 2008:

- Review of the Emission Trading System (ETS)

- Effort Sharing in non-ETS sectors – proposal for decision

- Communication on post-Kyoto commitments in preparation (“The Road to Copenhagen”)

► Adaptation as an emerging policy area

- Green Paper on adaptation (July 2007)

- White Paper – EU adaptation strategy (early 2009)

EU climate policy

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►July 2007- EU “Green Paper”- launches the debate on adapting to climate change

– Concludes that adaptation efforts need to be stepped up at all levels and in all sectors and need to be well-coordinated

– Early adaptation reduces costs

– Integrate adaptation in existing environmental and sectoral EU policies and Community funding programmes, including the CAP

– Expand knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation options

– Develop EU coordinated adaptation strategies.

►Early 2009: Communication (White Paper) proposals for an EU adaptation Strategy

Climate adaptation emerging policy field at EU level

European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008

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► Double challenge:

- Reduction of GHG emissions from agriculture

- Adaptation to impacts of climate change ► Contribution to mitigation:

- Emissions from agriculture: 20% reduction 1990-2006 (all sectors 8%)

- A further 15% reduction projected by 2010

- Evolution of the CAP: less incentives for intensive agriculture

- Environmental legislation: Water protection (WFD), emission ceilings (NEC) Cross-compliance – GAEC for soil protection

CAP and Climate change

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Main drivers of the declining emissions trend in agriculture

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Fertiliser and manure use Cattle numbers

N fertilisers

Cattle

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CAP and adaptation

► The recent wave of CAP reforms characterised by:

a shift from market intervention to direct producer support (decoupled from production)

increased support for rural development

► Decoupling extended in recent reforms: sugar (2006), fruits and vegetables (2007); Health Check

► This should facilitate the adaptation of the agricultural sector and rural areas by:

giving greater flexibility in the production decisions – market and agronomic factors

securing farm income facilitating the adjustment of farm sector – structures and production methods

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► Farmers have long proved their capacity to adapt to new challenges

► In the medium term, adaptation may require planned changes in:

production methods – plant protection land use farm structures and strategies, with significant costs

► The challenge is to guarantee sustainability of European agriculture and rural areas resilience to climate change; economic and social viability coherence with environmental protection

► Adaptation strategies needed on EU, national and regional levels

The adaptation challenge

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Climate change one of the priorities 2007-2013

Mitigation and adaptation options in all axes

Axis 1 Farm modernization Restoring & prevention Farm advisory services TrainingAxis 2 Agri-environmental measures Conservation genetic resources Payments linked to WFD AfforestationAxis 3 Diversification into non-

agricultural activitiesLeader

Role of rural development

European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008

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Conclusions

► Farming is very vulnerable to climate change, increased by socio-economic pressures

► Global warming, but local impacts

► Adaptation has to deal not only with changing temperature and rainfall, but also by increasing variability, more extreme events

► Adaptation planning is challenging: uncertainties, interaction climate / agronomic factors, long planning horizon, + and effects in the same area

► Future adjustments of the CAP will need to integrate climate adaptation concerns and water management

► Provide positive incentives to farmers to adapt to new environment

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Thank you for your attention