Highmount 4q13 report singles v3

Highmount Newsletter: Winter 2014

(continued on page 2)

Kevin BannonManaging [email protected](646) 217-3304In

vest

men

ts

There’s No Avoiding the Future

Especially around this time of year, forecasts of what the next twelve months will hold for the economy and financial markets seem to be everywhere. We, of course, have our own thoughts on this topic. In brief, in our opinion, the prospects for improving global growth, with the U.S. economy leading the way, are encouraging. This environment should provide tailwinds for stocks by boosting corporate profits, but headwinds for bonds by putting at least moderate upward pressure on interest rates. Valuation levels across markets generally seem to be fair. Increasing confidence that the current economic expansion is becoming self-sustaining combined with continuing historically low risk-free interest rates suggests to us that investors will be increasing their allocations to riskier assets. With this said, what now?

As recent experience will confirm, forecasts need

to be handled with extreme care. Very few investors predicted the near-collapse of the global economy in 2007-2008, and very few foresaw last year’s 30% surge in U.S. stocks. So, as John Kenneth Galbraith famously suggested, is the only function of economic forecasting to make astrology look respectable? Readers will probably not be surprised to know that we believe that forecasting is a worthwhile exercise that can, in fact, add value to the investment decision-making process if pursued rigorously, regularly and with an open mind. Do investors really have any choice? By definition, investing requires investors to make judgments concerning a future that will always be uncertain. How often do we need to be reminded of this by the seemingly inescapable disclosures that “Past performance is not a guarantee of future results?”

Quarterly Newsletter

1 There’s No Avoiding the Future3 I Give and Bequeath My Passwords To...4 Investment Update5 LifeLegacy Cards

GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Volume 11: Winter 2014


dimensions. Be like the second son in the folk tale, and build your intangible fortune from the inside out. If you are inspired to use LifeLegacy Cards to help build that wealth inside your family, your advisor at Highmount can help.

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DisclosureInformation provided in this newsletter should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. Information presented is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, sell or invest in any Highmount Fund or in any security or commodity mentioned herein. Some investments discussed herein may be suitable only for sophisticated investors. Although information in this newsletter has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Highmount disclaims any responsibility to update any information provided herein. Past performance of a security or Fund does not necessarily indicate or predict future performance and investments mentioned herein may lose value. There is no assurance that any security discussed in this newsletter will continue to be held in the applicable portfolio or that securities that have previously been sold will not be repurchased. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable. There are no assurances that an investor’s portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark. If you have any questions, please call (646) 274-7470, or e-mail [email protected], or write Highmount Capital LLC, Attention: Chief Compliance Officer, 12 East 49th Street, 36th Floor, New York, NY 10017.To ensure compliance with Internal Revenue Service requirements, Highmount informs you that any tax information herein is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, to (i) avoid penalties under the Internal Revenue Code, or (ii) promote, market or recommend to another party any transaction or matter discussed in this newsletter. Nothing contained in this newsletter constitutes tax advice. Third-party rankings and recognition from publications or rating services is no guarantee of future investment success. Working with a highly-rated adviser does not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of results. A more thorough disclosure of the criteria used in making these rankings is available upon request. Any views or opinions presented herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Highmount Capital LLC.

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disability. You may wish to name your executor, or someone else. It would be a good idea to designate the responsible person in writing – preferably in your will. You should also consider designating an attorney in fact under your power of attorney to act with respect to your digital assets in the event of disability. Consistent with

the procedure for naming an executor, you should speak with the person you intend to designate beforehand.

Once you develop and implement your plan, you can rest easy, right? Sadly, that is not necessarily the case. Even with a secured well-conceived plan, it may not function seamlessly. Some internet service providers, such as Yahoo, maintain that a user’s right to access the account terminates at death. Theoretically, if an executor

appointed by the applicable court, or other authorized person violates an internet service provider’s terms of service, a criminal violation of federal law may occur (a state crime may also be committed in some states). Hopefully, the law will eventually progress to the point where a digital executor need not risk committing a crime to perform authorized services.

A cautionary tip: try to anticipate every situation that requires a password. A few weeks after my husband’s stroke, I inadvertently triggered the smoke detector while cooking. The security company (with which we had recently contracted) called requesting the password, which I did not know. I soon found myself explaining my predicament to the fire company.

Highmount Capitalwww.hmcap.com(646) 274-7470

BostonNew York

ZurichAmsterdam


Highmount Welcomes New EmployeesSusan Turnbull is Principal of Personal Legacy Advisors and a pioneering advocate of the value of non-binding personal legacy documents as a meaningful component of estate, financial and philanthropic planning. A professional writer and speaker, she is the author of The Wealth of Your Life: A Step-by-Step Guide for Creating Your Ethical Will, co-author of Between Generations: A Five Step Guide for Creating an Expression of Donor Intent, and creator of LifeLegacy Cards, prompts for insightful conversation and writing. Susan and her team of affiliated professionals provide a range of services, including family meeting facilitation, and coaching, writing, video, and design services for those seeking assistance in creating personal legacy letters, personal histories or video tributes. She lives in greater Boston. www.personallegacyadvisors.com


•

Inve

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ents Investors don’t buy GDP or inflation. We buy

financial assets - stocks and bonds - that derive their intrinsic value from the streams of dividend and interest payments that economic activity supports. To be valuable, we think forecasting financial market returns

needs to start with judgments concerning the basic economic building blocks. In our view, buying assets based on expectations of selling to eager buyers at higher prices at some future date without any clear justification for what will actually make these assets more valuable (as opposed

to just more popular) is speculating on investor psychology, not investing. Fundamentals change, but usually not abruptly and dramatically. Investor psychology, in contrast, can be notoriously volatile.

Prices and values can diverge sharply at times, but over the longer-term, our experience has been that market prices will tend to correlate closely with measures of underlying value. In evaluating whether our forecast remains on track or requires a mid-course correction, we believe that observable real world data points are more reliable markers than market price action. This is the reason why we approach the forecasting process from the bottom up. Our forecast of corporate earnings, for instance, involves judgments regarding factors ranging from revenue growth, profit margins and currency effects to interest expense, pension costs and shares outstanding. Our forecast of stock market returns builds on this earnings

forecast by including dividend yield and, most importantly, incorporating our assumption about an appropriate P/E ratio. Because less tangible factors such as investor confidence play a critical role in setting P/E ratios, this is among the most challenging forecasts to make. Changes in P/E ratios can exert outsized impacts on returns. Last year’s 30% increase in the S&P 500, for example, was approximately one part earnings growth (+5%) and five parts P/E ratio expansion (+25%, from 13.5x to 17.0x trailing earnings).

A good forecasting process should also seek to identify alternative scenarios in addition to establishing a base case. At a minimum, this guards against the potential for an “all or nothing” outlook. The economy and markets are just not that predictable. The probability levels assigned to the various scenarios will convey important information concerning the conviction levels that, in the end, are the key to driving changes in portfolio positioning. As time will tend to smooth out volatility and let the fundamentals come to the fore, we are advocates for adopting a forecasting time horizon longer than the usual 6-12 months. And finally, recognizing that change is constant and that forecasting will always be an inexact science, investors cannot become dogmatic. When John Maynard Keynes was challenged about shifting his position on a certain issue, he is said to have replied: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

“In Washington economic summit, a panel of three economists offered two dozen opinions about the direction

of global economies.”

Source: www.CartoonStock.com


Investment Returns through December 31, 2013 (in U.S. $)

Susan MilonaManaging [email protected](617) 326-0621

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I Give and Bequeath My Passwords To…”

About eight years ago, on a random Thursday evening in late April, I returned home from a charity event to be greeted by my then-15-year-old son, Ben, at the door. Ben handed me a phone with the words: “This is Dr. so-and-so at Beth Israel Hospital. He says that Daddy had a stroke.” With that, our family began a sad odyssey that culminated with my husband’s death from a brain tumor about fifteen months later.

The morning after that awful night in April, my other son, Robert, away at college, realized he needed funds to pay his part of the utilities bill for the apartment he was renting. We typically transferred funds to Robert from our joint checking account. My husband, however, had changed all the passwords on our bank and investment accounts a few weeks prior to his stroke, and I had no clue how to access the information (and my husband was in no position to provide any cogent information). I explained my predicament to the customer service people (online and in person) at the bank – but no amount of cajoling or pleading would sway the bank. Robert’s aunt finally transferred the funds to him, as I could not gain access for about a week. The inability to access these accounts made an extremely stressful time more so. I eventually rearranged matters so that I could access our accounts.

Your Digital Estate

My experience illustrates the potential problems associated with failure to make arrangements for “digital assets” in the event of death or disability. Think about it – what would happen to your financial accounts if you became disabled an hour from now? Would your spouse or significant other have access to pay bills? If you own a business, would someone be able to access your email to respond to clients and vendors? What if your children were unable to obtain the family photos or videos you’d saved to your hard drive, or the Cloud? What about your Quicken, YouTube, PayPal, Facebook and

LinkedIn accounts? If you’re an attorney, what about access to your calendar for court dates, pleadings and discovery documents saved electronically? Imagine the fallout if no lawyer were to show up to represent your client at an important hearing?

Life in our electronic world has its benefits as well as its burdens. The benefits are obvious. The burdens not only include changing passwords regularly to thwart hackers, but also having a plan to deal with your digital assets when the grim reaper comes to call.

So, how does one develop a contingency plan for digital assets?

Inventory: First, it is necessary to compile an inventory of accounts and anything else with a user name or password (or pass code). Assembling the inventory will take time and patience - some digital assets may not occur to you until you’re entering the password.

Secure the Inventory: Obviously, it is necessary to keep the inventory in a secure place. A safe deposit box would work, but has the disadvantage of necessitating a trip to the box each time you add or change a password. Perhaps your lawyer would be able to keep it with your will. One can also purchase a digital “safety deposit box” service, such as Legacy Locker or SecureSafe. It is possible to overdo the security: an acquaintance told me that he keeps a spreadsheet with all his access information – but it is in a language that “no one would understand.” One would expect this to be problematic for his survivors.

Update the Inventory: Although this is obvious, it does require discipline.

Responsible Person: It is necessary to designate the person who will take control of and manage your digital assets in the event of death or


Page 3


•

Inve

stm

ents Investors don’t buy GDP or inflation. We buy

financial assets - stocks and bonds - that derive their intrinsic value from the streams of dividend and interest payments that economic activity supports. To be valuable, we think forecasting financial market returns

needs to start with judgments concerning the basic economic building blocks. In our view, buying assets based on expectations of selling to eager buyers at higher prices at some future date without any clear justification for what will actually make these assets more valuable (as opposed

to just more popular) is speculating on investor psychology, not investing. Fundamentals change, but usually not abruptly and dramatically. Investor psychology, in contrast, can be notoriously volatile.

Prices and values can diverge sharply at times, but over the longer-term, our experience has been that market prices will tend to correlate closely with measures of underlying value. In evaluating whether our forecast remains on track or requires a mid-course correction, we believe that observable real world data points are more reliable markers than market price action. This is the reason why we approach the forecasting process from the bottom up. Our forecast of corporate earnings, for instance, involves judgments regarding factors ranging from revenue growth, profit margins and currency effects to interest expense, pension costs and shares outstanding. Our forecast of stock market returns builds on this earnings

Page 2

forecast by including dividend yield and, most importantly, incorporating our assumption about an appropriate P/E ratio. Because less tangible factors such as investor confidence play a critical role in setting P/E ratios, this is among the most challenging forecasts to make. Changes in P/E ratios can exert outsized impacts on returns. Last year’s 30% increase in the S&P 500, for example, was approximately one part earnings growth (+5%) and five parts P/E ratio expansion (+25%, from 13.5x to 17.0x trailing earnings).

A good forecasting process should also seek to identify alternative scenarios in addition to establishing a base case. At a minimum, this guards against the potential for an “all or nothing” outlook. The economy and markets are just not that predictable. The probability levels assigned to the various scenarios will convey important information concerning the conviction levels that, in the end, are the key to driving changes in portfolio positioning. As time will tend to smooth out volatility and let the fundamentals come to the fore, we are advocates for adopting a forecasting time horizon longer than the usual 6-12 months. And finally, recognizing that change is constant and that forecasting will always be an inexact science, investors cannot become dogmatic. When John Maynard Keynes was challenged about shifting his position on a certain issue, he is said to have replied: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

“In Washington economic summit, a panel of three economists offered two dozen opinions about the direction

of global economies.”

Source: www.CartoonStock.com




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Your Digital Estate











FINANCIAL MARKETS OUTLOOK: PROFITS ARE AT RECORD HIGHS AND STILL GROWING. But concerns about the sustainability of profit margins against the background of the increasing focus on income inequality bear close watching.

4th Quarter 2013

Full Year 2013

Global Equities

MSCI All World 7.4% 23.5%

International Equities

MSCI EAFE Index 5.8% 23.6%

• United Kingdom 7.7% 21.6%

• Germany 13.4% 31.0%

• Japan 5.4% 30.5%

• Netherlands 9.6% 26.1%

• Switzerland 4.2% 26.5%

Emerging Markets Equities

MSCI E.M. Index 1.9% -2.4%

• Brazil -7.2% -26.8%

• Russia 1.8% -1.1%

• India 10.8% -1.9%

• China -1.6% -1.0%

4th Quarter2013

Full Year2013

U.S. Fixed Income

Treasury Bills 0.0% 0.1%

Municipal Bond Index 0.3% -2.6%

Barclays Aggregate Index -0.1% -2.0%

• Treasuries -0.8% -2.8%

• Corporates 1.1% -1.5%

• Asset Backed 0.3% -0.3%

High Yield Index 3.6% 7.4%

U.S. Equities

Dow Jones 10.2% 29.7%

S&P 500 10.5% 32.4%

Russell 2000 8.7% 38.8%

Currencies

U.S. Dollar (trade-weighted) -0.2% 0.3%

Dollar vs. Euro -1.6% -4.2%

Commodities

Oil (WTI) -3.8% 7.2%

Gold -9.3% -28.0%


MARKET MONITOR: For developed markets at least, confidence is growing that the glass is half-full.

Investment Update

Page 4

Corporate Profit Margins Shifting Shares of GDP

49%

47

45

43

41 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis9/30

Wages and Salaries (Left Scale)

Corporate Profits(Right Scale) 14%

12

10

8

66

8

10

12

14

41

43

45

47

4910%

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Standard and Poor’s

Shaded areas indicate recessions

9/30




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Your Digital Estate










Page 3 Highmount Newsletter: Winter 2014

FINANCIAL MARKETS OUTLOOK: PROFITS ARE AT RECORD HIGHS AND STILL GROWING. But concerns about the sustainability of profit margins against the background of the increasing focus on income inequality bear close watching.

4th Quarter 2013

Full Year 2013

Global Equities

MSCI All World 7.4% 23.5%

International Equities

MSCI EAFE Index 5.8% 23.6%

• United Kingdom 7.7% 21.6%

• Germany 13.4% 31.0%

• Japan 5.4% 30.5%

• Netherlands 9.6% 26.1%

• Switzerland 4.2% 26.5%

Emerging Markets Equities

MSCI E.M. Index 1.9% -2.4%

• Brazil -7.2% -26.8%

• Russia 1.8% -1.1%

• India 10.8% -1.9%

• China -1.6% -1.0%

4th Quarter2013

Full Year2013

U.S. Fixed Income

Treasury Bills 0.0% 0.1%

Municipal Bond Index 0.3% -2.6%

Barclays Aggregate Index -0.1% -2.0%

• Treasuries -0.8% -2.8%

• Corporates 1.1% -1.5%

• Asset Backed 0.3% -0.3%

High Yield Index 3.6% 7.4%

U.S. Equities

Dow Jones 10.2% 29.7%

S&P 500 10.5% 32.4%

Russell 2000 8.7% 38.8%

Currencies

U.S. Dollar (trade-weighted) -0.2% 0.3%

Dollar vs. Euro -1.6% -4.2%

Commodities

Oil (WTI) -3.8% 7.2%

Gold -9.3% -28.0%


MARKET MONITOR: For developed markets at least, confidence is growing that the glass is half-full.

Investment Update

Corporate Profit Margins Shifting Shares of GDP

49%

47

45

43

41 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis9/30

Wages and Salaries (Left Scale)

Corporate Profits(Right Scale) 14%

12

10

8

66

8

10

12

14

41

43

45

47

4910%

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Standard and Poor’s

Shaded areas indicate recessions

9/30



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BostonNew York

ZurichAmsterdam




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LifeLegacy Cards:Engaging Every Generation

There is an old folk tale that tells the story of two sons who set off into the world to seek success. One is given a sack full of money to support him in his efforts, while the other heads out with only the wealth of love, knowledge and common sense to find his way. We all know what happens. The son with the sack of money loses it all and ends the story with nothing, while his brother finds his true fortune by following his wisdom, leading to a long and happy life.

Of course, real life is never so black-and-white. In truth, most of us want it both ways: we want to give our children and grandchildren not only financial advantages, but also the intangible riches of values and purpose and connection to family history. These bind them to something larger than themselves. Yet with the feverish pace of modern life, finding the time to talk to each other about such things may seem more difficult than nailing down the details of an estate plan.

Sometimes it takes a little engineering to create the space for these conversations to happen. Family gatherings around the holidays, birthdays and reunions often present opportunities for multiple generations to connect. One way to generate an intergenerational dialogue is through the telling of personal stories, initiated perhaps by the family matriarch or patriarch. Everybody loves stories – and stories can reveal what is important within each individual, and between them as a family that shares a past, a present and a future.

Many families feel they need some help in catalyzing meaningful discourse in a multi-generational setting. In response to such inquiries, I developed LifeLegacy Cards. LifeLegacy Cards are a set of twelve tiles, each one presenting an uncomplicated, open-ended prompt to both discover and share a story.

Look at the sampling of prompts in the side-bar and imagine how you might use them with your family:

As a game at a family dinner, a family meeting or a reunion:

• Put the younger generation in charge. Let them choose a card they’d like their elders to respond to. Then reverse. Put a card face down in front of each person’s plate, and go around the table responding

one by one. Trading is allowed!

• Have the oldest family member choose one card he/she would like everyone to talk about.

To help shape a family mission or philanthropic vision statement:

• Each story or reflection invites a deeper question: what are the personal values behind that story or reflection? What can I do, or we do, to strengthen and promote those values within ourselves, our family, our community, the world at large?

• Talk together about the values that emerge in the telling of the stories. Name them as best you can, and have a scribe keep a list. See what patterns of values and purpose are revealed, and create a statement that begins to capture a vision for a healthy future of your family, or a mission for your giving.

As a ready-made outline for a mini-memoir:• The cards and your smart phone or tablet equip you

with everything you need to capture the voice and some of life’s highlights of an elder (or not-so-elder) member of your family. To give the recording extra meaning, consider having a younger family member do the prompting, and create a conversational interview.

• Have the recording transcribed, so you also have a written record, which provides insurance against ever-changing technology and serves as a resource for a future book or legacy letter.

May the year 2014 bring you and your family ever-increasing wealth, in both its tangible and intangible


Susan TurnbullGuest WriterPersonal Legacy Advisors, LLC www.personallegacyadvisors.com


As a ready-made outline for a mini-memoir:


A Sampling of the Prompts from LifeLegacy Cards

• Describe a place you love

• Share a memory about a person who had an impact on you

• Talk about an experience you hope everyone gets to have

• Name something meaningful made possible by your money



Kevin BannonManaging [email protected](646) 217-3304In

vest

men

ts

There’s No Avoiding the Future

Especially around this time of year, forecasts of what the next twelve months will hold for the economy and financial markets seem to be everywhere. We, of course, have our own thoughts on this topic. In brief, in our opinion, the prospects for improving global growth, with the U.S. economy leading the way, are encouraging. This environment should provide tailwinds for stocks by boosting corporate profits, but headwinds for bonds by putting at least moderate upward pressure on interest rates. Valuation levels across markets generally seem to be fair. Increasing confidence that the current economic expansion is becoming self-sustaining combined with continuing historically low risk-free interest rates suggests to us that investors will be increasing their allocations to riskier assets. With this said, what now?

As recent experience will confirm, forecasts need

to be handled with extreme care. Very few investors predicted the near-collapse of the global economy in 2007-2008, and very few foresaw last year’s 30% surge in U.S. stocks. So, as John Kenneth Galbraith famously suggested, is the only function of economic forecasting to make astrology look respectable? Readers will probably not be surprised to know that we believe that forecasting is a worthwhile exercise that can, in fact, add value to the investment decision-making process if pursued rigorously, regularly and with an open mind. Do investors really have any choice? By definition, investing requires investors to make judgments concerning a future that will always be uncertain. How often do we need to be reminded of this by the seemingly inescapable disclosures that “Past performance is not a guarantee of future results?”

Page 1

Quarterly Newsletter

1 There’s No Avoiding the Future3 I Give and Bequeath My Passwords To...4 Investment Update5 LifeLegacy Cards


Volume 11: Winter 2014



•

Fam

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nanc

e


Wea

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Man

agem

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•







BostonNew York

ZurichAmsterdam




Fam

ilyG

over

nanc

e

LifeLegacy Cards:Engaging Every Generation

There is an old folk tale that tells the story of two sons who set off into the world to seek success. One is given a sack full of money to support him in his efforts, while the other heads out with only the wealth of love, knowledge and common sense to find his way. We all know what happens. The son with the sack of money loses it all and ends the story with nothing, while his brother finds his true fortune by following his wisdom, leading to a long and happy life.

Of course, real life is never so black-and-white. In truth, most of us want it both ways: we want to give our children and grandchildren not only financial advantages, but also the intangible riches of values and purpose and connection to family history. These bind them to something larger than themselves. Yet with the feverish pace of modern life, finding the time to talk to each other about such things may seem more difficult than nailing down the details of an estate plan.

Sometimes it takes a little engineering to create the space for these conversations to happen. Family gatherings around the holidays, birthdays and reunions often present opportunities for multiple generations to connect. One way to generate an intergenerational dialogue is through the telling of personal stories, initiated perhaps by the family matriarch or patriarch. Everybody loves stories – and stories can reveal what is important within each individual, and between them as a family that shares a past, a present and a future.

Many families feel they need some help in catalyzing meaningful discourse in a multi-generational setting. In response to such inquiries, I developed LifeLegacy Cards. LifeLegacy Cards are a set of twelve tiles, each one presenting an uncomplicated, open-ended prompt to both discover and share a story.

Look at the sampling of prompts in the side-bar and imagine how you might use them with your family:


• Put the younger generation in charge. Let them choose a card they’d like their elders to respond to. Then reverse. Put a card face down in front of each person’s plate, and go around the table responding

one by one. Trading is allowed!

• Have the oldest family member choose one card he/she would like everyone to talk about.


• Each story or reflection invites a deeper question: what are the personal values behind that story or reflection? What can I do, or we do, to strengthen and promote those values within ourselves, our family, our community, the world at large?

• Talk together about the values that emerge in the telling of the stories. Name them as best you can, and have a scribe keep a list. See what patterns of values and purpose are revealed, and create a statement that begins to capture a vision for a healthy future of your family, or a mission for your giving.

As a ready-made outline for a mini-memoir:• The cards and your smart phone or tablet equip you

with everything you need to capture the voice and some of life’s highlights of an elder (or not-so-elder) member of your family. To give the recording extra meaning, consider having a younger family member do the prompting, and create a conversational interview.

• Have the recording transcribed, so you also have a written record, which provides insurance against ever-changing technology and serves as a resource for a future book or legacy letter.

May the year 2014 bring you and your family ever-increasing wealth, in both its tangible and intangible

Page 5


Susan TurnbullGuest WriterPersonal Legacy Advisors, LLC www.personallegacyadvisors.com


As a ready-made outline for a mini-memoir:


A Sampling of the Prompts from LifeLegacy Cards

• Describe a place you love

• Share a memory about a person who had an impact on you

• Talk about an experience you hope everyone gets to have

• Name something meaningful made possible by your money

Highmount 4q13 report singles v3

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