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Workshop on “Unconventional monetary policy:

Effectiveness and risks”

(Rome,29-30March2016)

On 29-30March 2016 the Bank of Italy hosted the Fourth Economic Outlook and

MonetaryPolicyDirectorateInternalWorkshop,whichthisyearaddressedthetheme

“Unconventionalmonetarypolicy:Effectivenessandrisks.”

Theeventfeaturedfourteenpresentations(allwithdiscussion),distributedoversix

sessions.TheworkspresentedintheAirstsessionfocusedontheeffectivenessofthe

recentunconventionalmonetarypolicymeasures;thesecondsessionexploredtheir

redistributiveconsequences;thethirdsessionwasdevotedtoanalyzingtheportfolio

rebalancingeffect,bothwithintheareaandinthebroaderinternationalcontext;the

papers presented in the fourth session proposed differentmethods to detect asset

overvaluation and the possible emergence of bubbles due to the impact of the

unconventional measures on asset prices; the Aifth session assessed the market

responsetotheannouncementsofunconventionalmeasures,distinguishingbetween

positiveandnegativesurprises;thepaperspresentedinthelastsessionfocusedon

the effects of exiting prematurely from unconventional policies. Overall, the

contributionsoftheworkshophighlightedtheeffectivenessofthemeasuresrecently

adopted in the euro area in affecting the yields of Ainancial assets and inducing a

portfolio rebalancing, thus leading to an improvement in the growth and inAlation

outlook, with no undesirable redistributive consequences nor clear risks of asset

price bubbles. The effectiveness of themeasures is nonetheless conditional on the

purchaseprogrammehavingappropriatesizeandduration.

Someof thepaperspresented in theworkshopwill soonbe circulated asWorking

Papers (Temi di Discussione) of the Bank of Italy, following the regular refereeing

process.

Theprogrammeisavailablehere.

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"Workshop on “Current issues in �iscal policy”

(Rome,31March-1April2016)

From 31March to 2 April, the Bank of Italy hosted its 18thWorkshop on Public

Finance,whichthisyearfocusedon“CurrentissuesinAiscalpolicy”.

The event featured nineteen presentations (allwith discussion), distributed over

six sessions, and three short speeches delivered by well-known European and

American Aiscal experts. The works presented in the Airst session focused on

sovereigndefaulteventsandthesubsequentrecoveryofmarketaccess.Thesecond

sessionexploredtheissueofdebtsustainability.Thethirdsessionwasdevotedto

Highlights 1

Forthcoming events 2

Latest working papers 4

Latest occasional papers 9

Economic History working paper 17

Historical series of the Bank of Italy 17

Workshops and Conferences series 18

Selection of journal articles and books 19

Useful links 23

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Highlights

NUMBER 42

APRIL 2016

http://www.bancaditalia.it/media/agenda/convegni-2016/CPM-programme-20160324.pdf?language_id=1

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Forthcoming events

proposalsaimedatcompletingandimprovingtheEMUinstitutionalframework.

The papers presented in the fourth session assessed the link between taxation, regulation and

economicgrowth.TheAifthsessiondiscussedtheinstitutionalrootsandtheeconomicconsequencesof

subnational budgetary policies, while the papers presented in the last session focused on

macroeconomicestimatesoftheeffectsofAiscalpolicies.

Overall,thestudiespresentedtotheworkshop,showingawidevarietyofmethodologies,contributed

to shed further light on some of themost relevant issues currently debated in the domain of Aiscal

policy. In the tradition of previous editions, great attentionwas devoted to institutional design and

recentpolicydevelopments.

Most of the papers presented in the workshopwill soon be available on a dedicated corner of the

Bancad’Italiawebsite.

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"Central banking in the XXI century: never say never".

Speech by Fabio Panetta

(Milan,14April2016)

FabioPanetta,DeputyGovernorof theBankof Italy,gaveaspeechentitled"Central banking in the

XXI century: never say never"attheSUERF/BafAiCareAinConference"Centralbankingandmonetary

policy:Whichwillbethenewnormal?"heldinMilan.

Thespeechisavailablehere.

First Rome Junior Finance Conference

(Rome,6-7June2016)

On 6-7 June 2016, EIEF will host and organize the “First Rome Junior Finance Conference”. The

conference will bring together junior researchers active in empirical and theoretical Ainance.

Participantswillreceiveaninvitationfromtheorganizingcommittee.

Furtherinformationwillbeavailablehere.

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Sixth Bank of Italy/CEPR Conference on Money,

Banking and Finance “Monetary policy after the

crisis: new views, open questions”

(Rome,9-10June2016)

On 9-10 June 2016 the Bank of Italy will host the Sixth Bank of Italy/CEPR Conference onMoney,

BankingandFinancewhichthisyearwillbedevotedtothethemeof"Monetarypolicyafterthecrisis:

newviews,openquestions".

Theconferencewill focuson the roleplayedbymonetarypolicy inanenvironmentofweakgrowth

and low inAlation, exploring new transmission channels that inAluence the redistributive effects of

monetarypolicy,theimpactofmonetarypolicyonportfolioallocationandtheinAluencethishasonthe

propensitytoriskofinvestors.

The organizing committee is composed of the following members: Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (Princeton

UniversityandCEPR),PaoloSurico(LondonBusinessSchoolandCEPR),StefanoNeri(BankofItaly),

Giuseppe Ferrero (Bank of Italy) and Piergiorgio Alessandri (Bank of Italy). The deadline for the

submissionofpapersis5February2016.

Thecallforpapersisavailablehere.

Highlights

http://www.bancaditalia.it/media/notizia/central-banking-in-the-xxi-century-never-say-never-speech-by-fabio-panettahttp://www.eief.it/events/forthcoming-events/http://www.bancaditalia.it/media/agenda/convegni-2015/BI-CEPR_2016_Call_for_papers.pdf?language_id=1

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Forthcoming events _________________________________________________________________

First Rome Junior Conference on Applied

Microeconomics

(Rome,23-24June2016)

On 23-24 June 2016, EIEF will host and organize the “First Rome Junior Conference on Applied

Microeconomics”.Theconferencewillfosterinteractionamongresearchersactiveindifferentareas

ofappliedmicroeconomics.Theselectionof invitedpresenterswillgivepreference toeconomistsat

theearlystagesoftheircareer.

Furtherinformationwillbeavailablehere. _________________________________________________________________

Fifth Rome Conference on Macroeconomics

(Rome,27-28June2016)

On27-28June2016,EIEFwillhostandorganizethe“Fifth Rome Conference on Macroeconomics”.

Theconferencewillbringtogetherjunior“high-Alier”economistsfromaroundtheworldwithastrong

interestinmacroeconomics.


Second Summer Workshop in Political Economy

(Rome,4-5July2016)

On 4-5 July 2016, EIEF will host the “Second Summer Workshop in Political Economy”. The

workshop will focus on research at the intersection of political economy, public Ainance, and

macroeconomics.


CSEF-EIEF-SITE Conference on Finance and Labor

(Rome,8-9September2016)

The Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), EIEF and the Stanford Institute for

Theoretical Economics (SITE) invite paper submissions on the relationships between Ainance and

labour.Thesubmissiondeadlineis30April2016.

Thecallforpapersisavailablehere. _________________________________________________________________

12th DYNARE Conference

(Rome,29-30September2016)

TheBankofItaly,togetherwithBanquedeFrance,DSGE-net,andtheDynareprojectatCEPREMAP,is

organizing the “12th Annual DYNARE Conference”. The conference will be held in Rome on

September29-30,2016.Itwillbringtogetherleadingscholars indynamicmacroeconomicmodelling

aswellasresearchersworkinginthisAieldfromleadingpolicymakingInstitutions.PierpaoloBenigno

(LUISS Guido Carli University and EIEF) and Raf Wouters (National Bank of Belgium) will be the

plenaryspeakers.

Thecallforpapersisavailablehere.

https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/altri-atti-seminari/index.html?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1http://www.eief.it/seminars/http://www.eief.it/events/forthcoming-events/http://www.eief.it/events/forthcoming-events/http://www.eief.it/events/forthcoming-events/http://www.eief.it/files/2016/02/call-for-papers_csef_eief_site_2016_conference.pdfhttp://www.dynare.org/events/12th-dynare-conference

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No.1065:How excessive is banks’ maturity transformation? (April2016)

AnatoliSeguraandJavierSuarez

Wequantifythegainsfromregulatingbanks’maturitytransformationinaninAinitehorizonmodelofbankswhichAinancelong-termassetswithnon-tradabledebt.Bankschoosetheamountandmaturityoftheirdebttradingoffinvestors’preferenceforshortmaturitieswiththeriskofsystemiccrises.AsinStein(2012),pecuniaryexternalitiesmakeunregulateddebtmaturitiesinefAicientlyshort.TheassessmentisbasedonthecalibrationofthemodeltoEurozonebankingdatafor2006.Lengtheningtheaveragematurityofwholesaledebtfromits2.8monthsto3.3monthswouldproducewelfaregainswithapresentvalueofeuro105billion.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1064:EAGLE-FLI. A macroeconomic model of banking and �inancial

interdependence in the euro area

(April2016)

NikolaBokan,AndreaGerali,SandraGomes,Pascal

JacquinotandMassimilianoPisani

Banks,DSGEmodels,econometricmodels,Ainancialfrictions,open-economymacroeconomics,policyanalysis

Abstract:WeincorporateAinanciallinkagesinEAGLE,aNewKeynesianmulti-countrydynamicgeneralequilibriummodeloftheeuroarea(EA)byincludingAinancialfrictionsandcountry-speciAicbankingsectors.Inthisnewversion,termedEAGLE-FLI(EuroAreaandGLobalEconomywithFinancialLInkages),bankscollectdepositsfromdomestichouseholdsandcross-countryinterbankmarketandraisecapitaltoAinanceloansissuedtodomestichouseholdsandAirms.Inordertoborrowfromlocal(regional)banks,householdsusedomesticrealestatewhereasAirmsusebothdomesticrealestateandphysicalcapitalasacollateral.Thesefeatures–togetherwiththefullcharacterizationoftradebalanceandrealexchangeratedynamicsandwitharicharrayofAinancialshocks–allowtoproperlyassessdomesticandcross-countrymacroeconomiceffectsofAinancialshocks.Ourresultssupporttheviewsthat(1)thebusinesscyclesintheEAcanbedrivennotonlybyrealshocks,butalsobyAinancialshocks,(2)theAinancialsectorcouldamplifythetransmissionof(real)shocks,and(3)theAinancial/bankingshocks

andthebankingsectorscanbesourcesofbusinesscycleasymmetriesandspilloversacrosscountriesinamonetaryunion.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1063:Informational contagion in the laboratory (April2016)

MarcoVacirca,AntonioGuarino,Giovanni

Guazzarotti,FedericoTagliatiandSvenFischer

WestudytheinformationalchannelofAinancialcontagionunderlaboratoryconditions.Inourexperiment,twomarketswithcorrelatedfundamentalsopensequentiallyandinbothofthemsubjectsreceiveprivateinformation.SubjectsinthemarketopeningsecondalsoobservethehistoryoftradesandpricesintheAirstmarket.WeAindthatalthoughinbothmarketsprivateinformationisonlyimperfectlyaggregated,subjectsareabletomakecorrectinferencesbasedonthepublicinformationcomingfromthemarketthatopensAirst.WethusobserveAinancialcontagionunderlaboratoryconditions:thecorrelationbetweenassetpricesisveryclosetothatpredictedbythetheory.Moreover,asthetheorypredicts,thereisnocontagionwhenassetfundamentalsareindependent:inotherwords,subjectsonlyreacttothehistoryofpricesandtradesintheAirstmarketwhenitisrationaltodosobecausetheyconveyinformation.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1062:Market timing and performance attribution in the ECB reserve

management framework

(April2016)

FrancescoPotenteandAntonioScalia

WestudytheperformanceofagroupofforeignexchangereservemanagersthatareresponsibleforinvestingtheECB’sofAicialreservesinUSdollars,foravalueofaround$43billion,usinganewdatasetwhichincludesdetailedportfolioholdingsfrom2006to2010.TheECBreservemanagersdisplayapositiveabilityatsecurityselectionoverall.Twoportfoliomanagersshowmarkettimingabilityafteradjustingforthenon-linearityofthebenchmarkreturns.Foroneportfoliomanager,markettimingabilityissigniAicantlyrelatedtotheefAicientuseofpublicinformation.Topindownmarkettiming,wedevelopaperformanceattributionmodelwhichidentiAiesthecontributionofthekeyportfoliomanagers’strategies(duration,curve,andspread).WeAindthat,amongtheactivelayers,the

Latest working papers

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1063/en_tema_1063.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1064/en_tema_1064.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1065/en_tema_1065.pdf?language_id=1

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spreadcontributionseemsthemostsigniAicant;curveanddurationbets,withsomeexceptions,havegenerallyprovidedlittlevalueadded.OuranalysissupportstheviewthatportfoliomanagersadoptdiversiAiedinvestmentstyles.Thismayexplainthenon-negligibleresultoftheaggregatereserveportfolio,averaging10basispointsonanannualbasis,netoftransactioncosts.ThemorediversiAiedtheinvestmentstylesare,themorelikelyitisthatportfoliomanagersmakeindependentbets,whichinturnmaypositivelyaffecttherisk-adjustedreturnoftheaggregateportfolio.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1061:An evaluation of the policies on repayment of Government’s

trade debt in Italy (April2016)

LeandroD’AurizioandDomenicoDepalo

Since2012theItalianGovernmenthastakenseveralstepstorepayitscommercialdebts.Usingacompositedataset,weevaluatetheeffectsofthesepoliciesontheAinancialperformanceofarepresentativesampleofItalianAirms.WedistinguishbetweentheAirmsthatwerebeneAiciariesoftheserepayments,thosethatwerenotrepaid,thoughtheyhadalegitimateclaim,andthosethathadnocommercialtieswiththegeneralgovernment.WeAindthatreceivingmoneyhadasigniAicantpositiveimpactonAirms’Ainancialposition.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1060:Intergenerational mobility in the very long run: Florence 1427-

2011 (April2016)

GuglielmoBaroneandSauroMocetti

Weexamineintergenerationalmobilityintheverylongrun,acrossgenerationsthataresixcenturiesapart.WeexploitauniquedatasetcontainingdetailedinformationattheindividuallevelforallpeoplelivingintheItaliancityofFlorencein1427.Theseindividualshavebeenassociated,usingtheirsurnames,withtheirpseudo-descendantslivinginFlorencein2011.WeAindthatearningselasticityisabout0.04,muchhigherthanpredictedbytraditionalmodelsofintergenerationalmobility.WealsoAindanevenstrongerroleforrealwealthinheritanceandevidenceofpersistenceinbelongingtocertaineliteprofessions.OurresultsareconAirmedwhenweaccountforthequalityofthepseudo-linksandwhenweaddressthepotentialselectivitybiasdue

tothedifferentialsurvivalratesacrosssurnames.Wearguethatthequasi-immobilityofpre-industrialsocietyandthepositionaladvantagesintheaccesstocertainprofessionsmightexplain(inpart)thelong-lastingeffectsofancestors’socioeconomicstatus.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1059:Estimating the money market microstructure with negative and

zero interest rates

(February2016)

EdoardoRainoneandFrancescoVacirca

Moneymarketmicrostructureisfundamentaltostudyingbankbehaviour,toevaluatingmonetarypolicyandtoassessingtheAinancialstabilityofthesystem.Giventhelackofgranulardataoninterbankloans,FurAine(1999)proposedanalgorithmtoestimatethemicrostructureusingdatafromthepaymentsystem.WeproposeaneconometricmethodologytoassessandimprovethequalityofthemoneymarketmicrostructureestimatedbytheFurAinealgorithminthepresenceofzeroandnegativerates,exploitinginformationcomingfrommarketregularities.WeAirstextendthestandardFurAinealgorithmtoincludenegativeratesandverifythepresenceofsigniAicantnoiseataspeciAicrate.Secondly,weproposeaninferentialprocedurethatenrichesandcorrectsthestandardalgorithmbasedontheeconomiclikelihoodofloans.Marketregularitiesobservedinthisdecentralizedmarketareusedtoincreasethereliabilityoftheestimatedinterbanknetwork.Thirdly,themethodologyisappliedtoTARGET2,theEuropeanwholesalepaymentsystem.Themainimpactsofrecentmonetarypolicydecisionsonkeyinterestratesarestudied,comparingthestandardalgorithmwiththeneweconometricprocedure.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1058:The quantity of corporate credit rationing with matched bank-

�irm data (February2016)

LorenzoBurlon,DavideFantino,AndreaNobiliand

GabrieleSene

ThispaperprovidesmeasuresofcreditrationinginthemarketoftermloanstoItaliannon-AinancialAirms.Weidentifynon-priceallocationsofcreditbyexploitingauniquebank-Airmdatasetofmorethan5millionobservations,whichmatchesthequantityandthecostofcreditavailablefromtheCreditRegisterwithanumber


http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1059/en_tema_1059.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1060/en_tema_1060.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1061/en_tema_1061.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1062/en_tema_1062.pdf?language_id=1

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ofbank-andAirm-speciAiccharacteristicsfromdifferentsourcesofmicrodata.WeproposeanapproachthatendogenouslyidentiAiesallthebank-Airmtransactionssubjecttocreditrationing,thuscircumventingaggregationbiasesstemmingfromtheuseoflessdetailedinformation.TheestimatessuggestthatintheItaliancase,rationingmostlyreAlectedanincreaseinnon-performingloansinbanks'portfoliosandadeclineinavailablecollateral.Borrowers'characteristicsplayedaminorrole,althoughbanksdidswitchtheirsupplyoffundsinfavourofAirmswithgreatercreditworthinessaftertheoutbreakofthesovereigndebtcrisis.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1057: The real effects of credit crunch in the Great Recession: evidence

from Italian provinces(February2016)

GuglielmoBarone,GuidodeBlasioandSauroMocetti

Thepaperestimatestheeffectsontherealeconomyofthesharpreductioninthesupplyofcreditfollowingthe2008Ainancialcrisis.Wedevelopameasureoflocalcreditsupplythatisbasedonthemarketsharesofthebanksthatservealocaleconomyandthenationalchangeineachbank’slendingthatisattributabletosupplyfactors(i.e.purgedoflocaldemandfactors).Thedecreaseinourcreditsupplyindicator,whichisstronglycorrelatedtothegrowthofoutstandingloans,accountsfor13percentofthecontractioninrealvalueaddedwithrespecttothepre-crisisperiod.Thenegativeeffectsalsoconcernemployment,althoughtoalesserextent.TherealeffectsofthecreditcrunchareconcentratedonsmallAirmsandintheareasthataremoredependentuponexternalAinance.Finally,creditsupplyshocksaffectedlendingbutnotrealoutcomesinthepre-crisisperiod.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1056:Retirement, pension eligibility and home production

(February2016)

EmanueleCiani

IestimatetheeffectofretirementonhouseworkbyexploitingthediscontinuityinpensioneligibilitygeneratedbytheItaliansocialsecurityrules.Usingmicrodatafromthe2007waveoftheSurveyonIncomeandLivingConditions(SILC),Ishowthatwomenincreasetheirtimespenton

homeproductionbymorethan400minutesperweek.Formen,thereisonaveragenoevidenceofasigniAicantchange,whichdiffersfromtheresultsofstudiesinothercountries.However,estimatesareheterogeneousbymaritalstatus,suggestingthatmarriedmendonotincreasetimespentonhouseholdproductionbecausetheycanrelyontheirspouses.Ialsodiscussotherpossibleexplanations,inparticularmendedicatingtheirtimeto‘semi-leisurechores’thatdonotfallunderthedeAinitionofhouseworkusedinSILC.Overall,resultssuggestthatretirementdoesnotleadtoamoreequaldistributionof‘core’householdchoresbetweengenders.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1055:Bank internationalization and �irm exports: evidence from

matched �irm-bank data

(February2016)

RaffaelloBronziniandAlessioD'Ignazio

InthispaperweinvestigatewhethernewexporterAirmshaveahigherprobabilityofstartingtoexporttothecountrieswheretheirAinancingbankshavealreadyestablishedtheirbranches.TheunderlyingmechanismwehypothesizeisbasedonthetransmissionofforeignmarketknowledgefrombankstoAirms,soastocutdowninformationbarrierstointernationaltrade.InthosecountrieswheresuchinformationisarguablymoreprecioustotheAirm,wefoundasigniAicantpositiverelationshipbetweenaAirm’sprobabilityofbeginningtoexporttoonemarket,andthepresenceinthesamemarketofabranchoftheAirm’sAinancingbank.Coherentlywiththemechanismhypothesized,weAindastrongereffectforcloserAirm-bankrelationships,andwhenbankshaveestablishedtheirbranchesabroadoveralongertimeperiod.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1054:Labor force participation, wage rigidities, and in�lation

(February2016)

FrancescoNucciandMariannaRiggi

ThefallinUSlaborforceparticipationduringtheGreatRecessionstandsinsharpcontrastwithitsparallelincreaseintheeuroarea.Inadditiontostructuralforces,cyclicalfactorsareshowntoaccountforthisphenomenon,withtheparticipationratebeingprocyclicalintheUSfromtheinceptionofthecrisisandcountercyclicalin



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theeuroarea.Werationalizethesedivergingdynamicsbyusingageneralequilibriumbusinesscyclemodel,whichneststheendogenousparticipationdecisionsintoasearchandmatchingmodel.Weshowthatthe"addedworker"effectmightoutweighthe"discouragementeffect"ifrealwagerigiditiesareallowedforand/orhabitinconsumerpreferencesissufAicientlystrong.WethendrawtheimplicationsofvariablelaborforceparticipationratesforinAlationandestablishthefollowingresult:ifendogenousmovementsinlabormarketparticipationareenvisaged,thenthedegreeofrealwagerigiditiesbecomesalmostirrelevantforpricedynamics.Indeed,duringrecessions,theupwardpressuresoninAlationstemmingfromthelackofadownwardadjustmentinrealwagesareoffsetbyanoppositeinAluencefromtheadditionalloosenessinthelabormarket,duetothehigherparticipationrateassociatedwithwagerigidities.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1053:Estimation of counterfactual distributions with a continuous

endogenous treatment

(February2016)

SantiagoPeredaFernández

Policymakersareofteninterestedinthedistributionaleffectsthatapolicywouldhave.InthispaperIproposeamethodtoestimatesucheffectswhenthetreatmentvariableisendogenous,continuous,andhasaheterogeneouseffect.Iconsideratriangularsystemofequationsinwhichtheunobservablesarerelatedbyacopulathatcapturestheendogeneityofthemodel.ThecopulaisnonparametricallyidentiAiedbyinvertingthequantileprocessesconditionalonavectorofcovariates.Iestimatebothconditionalquantileprocessesusingexistingquantileregressionmethods,andproposeaparametricandanonparametricestimatorofthecopula,showingtheasymptoticpropertiesoftheestimators.Iconsiderthreekindsofcounterfactualexperiments:changingthedistributionofthetreatment,changingthedistributionoftheinstrument,andchangingthedeterminationofthetreatment,discussingtheestimationforeachcounterfactual.Iillustratethesemethodsbyestimatingseveralcounterfactualsthataffectthedistributionoftheshareoffoodconsumption.Fulltext(pdf)

No.1052:Adaptive models and heavy tails(February2016)

DavideDelleMonacheandIvanPetrella

Thispaperintroducesanadaptivealgorithmfortime-varyingautoregressivemodelsinthepresenceofheavytails.Theevolutionoftheparametersisdeterminedbythescoreoftheconditionaldistribution.Theresultingmodelisobservation-drivenandisestimatedbyclassicalmethods.Meaningfulrestrictionsareimposedonthemodelparameterssoastoattainlocalstationarityandboundedmeanvalues.Inparticular,weconsidertimevariationinbothcoefAicientsandvolatility,emphasizinghowthetwointeract.Moreover,weshowhowtheproposedapproachgeneralizesthevariousadaptivealgorithmsusedintheliterature.ThemodelisappliedtotheanalysisofinAlationdynamics.AllowingforheavytailsleadstosigniAicantimprovementsintermsofAitandforecast.TheadoptionoftheStudent's-tdistributionprovestobecrucialinordertoobtainwell-calibrateddensityforecasts.TheseresultsareobtainedusingtheUSCPIinAlationrateandareconAirmedbyotherinAlationindicatorsaswellastheCPIoftheotherG7countries.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1051:How does bank capital affect the supply of mortgages? Evidence

from a randomized experiment(February2016)

ValentinaMichelangeliandEnricoSette

Westudytheeffectofbankcapitalonthesupplyofmortgages.Wefullycontrolforendogenousmatchingbetweenborrowers,loancontracts,andbanksbysubmittingrandomizedmortgageapplicationstothemajoronlinemortgagebrokerinItaly.WeAindthat:higherbankcapitalisassociatedwithahigherlikelihoodofapplicationacceptanceandlowerofferedinterestrates;bankswithlowercapitalrejectapplicationsbyriskierborrowersandofferlowerratestosaferones.Finally,nonparametricestimatesoftheprobabilityofacceptanceandoftheofferedrateshowthattheeffectofbankcapitalisstrongerwhencapitalislow.

Fulltext(pdf)



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Other recent working papers

January 2016

No. 1050:ContagionandAiresalesinbankingnetworksSaraCecchetti,MarcoRoccoandLaura

Sigalotti

No. 1049:DebtmaturityandtheliquidityofsecondarydebtmarketsMaxBrucheandAnatoliSegura

No. 1048:HeterogeneouspeereffectsineducationEleonoraPatacchini,EdoardoRainone

andYvesZenou

No. 1047:AnewmethodforthecorrectionoftestscoresmanipulationSantiagoPeredaFernández

No. 1046:Carrytradesandexchangeratevolatility:aTVARapproachAlessioAnzuinieFrancescaBrusa

No. 1045:OptimalinAlationweightsintheeuroareaDanielaBragoli,MassimilianoRigonand

FrancescoZanetti

December 2015

No. 1044:ThesupplysideofhouseholdAinanceGabrieleFoà,LeonardoGambacorta,Luigi

GuisoandPaoloEmilioMistrulli

No. 1043:ExposuretomediaandcorruptionperceptionsLuciaRizzicaandMarcoTonello

No. 1042:Multitaskagentsandincentives:thecaseofteachingandresearchforuniversityprofessorsMartaDePhilippis

No. 1041:TheuseofAixed-termcontractsandthe(adverse)selectionofpublicsectorworkersLuciaRizzica

No. 1040:ThemacroeconomiceffectsoflowandfallinginAlationatthezerolowerboundStefanoNeriandAlessandroNotarpietro

No. 1039:Shoe-leathercostsintheeuroareaandtheforeigndemandforeurobanknotesAlessandroCalzaandAndreaZaghini

No. 1038:YoungadultslivingwiththeirparentsandtheinAluenceofpeersEffrosyniAdamopoulouandEzgiKaya

No. 1037:Deconstructingthegainsfromtrade:selectionofindustriesvs.reallocationofworkersStefanoBolattoandMassimoSbracia

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1050/en_tema_1050.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1049/en_tema_1049.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1048/en_tema_1048.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1047/en_tema_1047.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1046/en_tema_1046.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1045/en_tema_1045.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1044/en_tema_1044.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1043/en_tema_1043.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1042/en_tema_1042.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1041/en_tema_1041.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1040/en_tema_1040.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1039/en_tema_1039.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1038/en_tema_1038.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1037/en_tema_1037.pdf?language_id=1

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No.329:Using external sources to understand sample survey bias:

the case of the Invind survey

(April2016)

LeandroD’AurizioandGiuseppinaPapadia

WelookattwosourcesofbiasinsurveyestimatesoftheBankofItaly’sSurveyofIndustrialandServicesFirmsconductedyearlyonapanelofenterprises:1)thebiasowingtopanelattritioncausedbythedifferencesbetweenunitsenteringandexitingthesampleandthoseparticipatingmoreregularlyinthesurvey;2)thebiascreatedbydelaysinthedistributionaldataonthereferencepopulation,neededforcomputingthesurveyweights.Bycomparinganarrayofperformanceindicators(availableinanintegrateddatabase)fortheAirmsregularlyparticipatingagainstthoseparticipatingmoreerratically,weAindthatpanelattritionhasalimitedeffectontheofAicialaggregateestimates,sincetheyaredeterminedbylargerAirms,whichtendtoparticipateregularlyinthesurvey.SmallerAirms’erraticparticipation,thecomparativelyworseperformanceoftheunitsexitingthesampleandthehigher-than-averageageoftheAirmsinthesamplecallforacarefulassessmentoftheestimatesthatarenotinAluencedbyAirmsize.Finally,forthelessrecentyearswemeasuretheextenttowhichtheestimatesvaryifweusetherevisedinformationonthereferencepopulation,andweAindthatthedelaysinupdatingsigniAicantlybiastheaggregateestimatesonlywhenthepopulationsizeishighlyunstable,withnegligibleeffectsontheestimateslessdependentonAirmsize.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

No.328:Monetary aggregates in Italy since 1861: evidence from a new dataset

(April2016)

FedericoBarbielliniAmidei,RiccardoDeBonis,

MiriaRocchelli,AlessandraSalvio,Massimiliano

Stacchini

ThepaperbuildsannualtimeseriesofItalianmonetaryaggregates.WhilepreviouscontributionsfocusedoncertainperiodsinItaly’seconomichistory,ourworkcoverstheyears1861-2014uninterruptedly;weimprovethequalityoftheexistingtimeseriesandprovidefurtherdetails

onthecomponentsofaggregates.Thepaperalsodocumentsthesourcesandmethodsusedfortheestimates.Finally,wediscussthekeytrendsoftheaggregatessince1861andpresentaneconometricanalysisofmoneydemand.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

No.327:Foreign direct investment and international trade in services: an

analysis based on balance of

payments microdata (April2016)

ChiaraBentivogli,FrancescoBripi,AndreaCarboni,

LucaCherubini,EleonoraLaurenza,Andrea

Locatelli,PaolaMonti,ElisabettaNencioni,Valeria

PellegriniandDiegoScalise

ThispaperpresentssomeanalysesofFDIandinternationaltradeinservicesbasedonmicrodatausedtoproducebalanceofpaymentsstatistics.ThemicrodatarevealandmitigatesomeinformativelimitationsofofAicialstatistics,whichnolongersatisfythegrowingneedforinternationalizationdata.TheanalysisshowsthatbothFDIandtradeinservicesarehighlyconcentratedbysizeandgeographiclocation;moreover,internationaltradeinservicesalsoinvolvesAirmsinthemanufacturingindustry,whileFDImicrodataindicateasigniAicantpresenceoflargecompaniesandholdings.Indeed,themicrodatashowthatinternationalizationoftenaffectsindividualAirmsindifferentwaysandisthereforesuitedtobeingstudiedfromanumberofperspectives;thisopensupnewpossibilitiesfortheempiricalanalysisofinternationalization.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

No.326:Easier said than done? Reforming the prudential treatment of banks’

sovereign exposures (April2016)

MicheleLanotte,GiacomoManzelli,AnnaMaria

Rinaldi,MarcoTabogaandPietroTommasino

Intheaftermathoftheeuro-areasovereigndebtcrisis,severalcommentatorshavequestionedthefavourabletreatmentofbanks’sovereignexposuresallowedbythecurrentprudentialrules.Inthispaper,weassesstheoveralldesirabilityofreformingtheserules.Weconcludethatthemicroeconomicandmacroeconomiccostsofareformcouldbesizeable,whilethebeneAitsareuncertain.Furthermore,wehighlightconsiderable

Latest occasional papers

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0329/QEF_329_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0328/QEF_328_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0327/QEF_327_16.pdf?language_id=1

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implementationissues.SpeciAically,itiswidelyagreedthatcreditratingsofsovereignsissuedbyratingagenciespresentimportantdrawbacks,butsoundalternativesstillneedtobefound;wearguethatconsiderationcouldbegiventotheuseofquantitativeindicatorsofAiscalsustainability,similartothoseprovidedbyinternationalbodiessuchastheIMFortheEuropeanCommission.Fulltext(pdf)

No.325:Hiring incentives and/or �iring cost reduction? Evaluating the

impact of the 2015 policies on the

Italian labour market

(March2016)

PaoloSestitoandElianaViviano

In2015Italyadoptedtwodifferentpoliciesaimedatreducinglabourmarketdualismandfosteringemployment:agenerouspermanenthiringsubsidyandnewregulationsloweringAiringcostsandmakingthemlessuncertain.UsingmicrodataforVenetoandexploitingsomedifferencesinthedesignofthepolicies,weevaluatetheimpactofeachmeasure.BothcontributedtodoublethemonthlyrateofconversionofAixed-termjobsintopermanentpositions.Moreover,around40percentofnewtotalgrosshireswithpermanentjobcontractsoccurredbecauseoftheincentives,whereas5percentcanbeattributedtothenewAiringregulations.ThenewAiringrulesalsomadeAirmslessreluctanttoofferpermanentjobpositionstoyetuntestedworkers.ThepossibilityofbeneAittingfromtheincentivesincaseofaconversionalsoboostedtemporaryhiring,asitallowedAirmstotestforthequalityofajobmatch.Fulltext(pdf)

No.324:When local banks lend to local communities: evidence from Italy

(2007-2014) (March2016)

MariaLuciaStefani,ValerioVacca(coordinators),

DanieleCoin,SilviaDelPrete,CristinaDemma,

MaddalenaGalardo,IconioGarrì,SauroMocetti,

DarioPellegrino

Duringtheperiod2007-2014,whentheItalianAinancialsystemwashitbytwoseverecrises,Italianlocalbanksincreasedtheirpresenceonlocalmarkets,expandingtheirbranchnetwork

whileotherbanknetworksshrank,andbolsteredtheirmarketshareofloanstohouseholdsandAirms.Atthesametime,thequalityoftheircreditworsenedmarkedly,especiallyforthosebanksthatattheonsetofthecrisishadsubstantialexposurestonon-traditionalcustomers(inparticularlargeAirms)andtherealestatesector.Theriseinloans’riskiness,whichaffectedthebalancesheetequilibriaoftheselocalbanks,withagrowingnumberofthembecomingdistressed,andthelargerdeteriorationofloans’qualityinsouthernregionsshowthatlocalbanks’lendingactivityispronetorisks,which,ifnotadequatelytackled,mayultimatelyoutweighthebeneAitsofcustomerproximity.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

No.323:Assessing �inancial stability risks arising from the real estate

market in Italy (March2016)

FedericaCiocchetta,WandaCornacchia,Roberto

FeliciandMicheleLoberto

WeprovideananalyticalframeworkforassessingAinancialstabilityrisksarisingfromtherealestatesectorinItaly.Thisframeworkconsistsoftwoblocks:threecomplementaryearlywarningmodels(EWMs)andabroadsetofindicatorsrelatedtotherealestatemarket,tocreditandtohouseholds.WefocusseparatelyonhouseholdsandonAirmsengagedinconstruction,managementandinvestmentservicesintherealestatesector.SinceinItalytherehavebeennorealestate-relatedsystemicbankingcrises,asvulnerabilityindicatorweconsideracontinuousindicatorrepresentedbytheratiobetweentheannualAlowofbaddebtsrelatedtotherealestatesectorandbanks’capitalandreserves.WecontributetotherecentliteratureonEWMsbyimplementingaBayesianModelAveraging(BMA)basedonlinearregressionmodelswithacontinuousdependentvariableofvulnerabilityandanorderedlogitmodelwithadiscretedependentvariableofvulnerabilityclasses.Bothmodelsexhibitgoodpredictiveabilities.BasedontheBMAprojectionsfortheperiodfromthethirdquarterof2015tothesecondquarterof2016,bankingvulnerabilityrelatedtotherealestatesectorisexpectedtograduallydecline.Fulltext(pdf)


http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0326/QEF_326_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0325/QEF_325_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0324/QEF_324_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0323/QEF_323_16.pdf?language_id=1

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No.322:Stitching together the global �inancial safety net (March2016)

EddDenbee,CarstenJungandFrancescoPaternò

FinancialglobalisationbringsanumberofbeneAitsbutcanalsoincreasetheriskofAinancialcrisis.Inrecentyears,toreducetheseriskstostability,countrieshavereformedAinancialregulation,enhancedframeworksforcentralbankliquidityprovisionanddevelopednewelements,andincreasedtheresourcesoftheglobalAinancialsafetynet(GFSN).ThetraditionalGFSNconsistedofcountries’ownforeignexchangereserveswiththeIMFactingasabackstop.ButsincetheglobalAinancialcrisistherehavebeenanumberofnewarrangementsaddedtotheGFSN,inparticulartheexpansionofswaplinesbetweencentralbanksandregionalAinancingarrangements(RFAs).ThenewlookGFSNismorefragmentedthaninthepast,withmultipletypesofliquidityinsuranceandindividualcountriesandregionshavingaccesstodifferentsizeandtypesofAinancialsafetynets.ThispaperAindsthatthecomponentsoftheGFSNarenotfullysubstitutable.WearguethatwhileswaplinesandRFAscanplayanimportantroleintheGFSNtheyarenotasubstituteforhavingastrong,wellresourced,IMFatthecentreofit.ByrunningaseriesofstressscenariosweAindthatforallbutthemostseverecrisisscenarios,thecurrentresourcesoftheGFSNarelikelytobesufAicient.However,thisAindingreliesupontheIMF’soveralllevelofresources(includingbothpermanentandtemporary)beingmaintainedattheircurrentlevel.Fulltext(pdf)

No.321:The evolution of the anchoring of in�lation expectations

(March2016)

InesBuonoandSaraFormai

WeinvestigatethedegreeofanchoringininAlationexpectationsfordifferentadvancedeconomiesusingdatafromprofessionalforecasters'surveys.WedeAineexpectationsasanchoredwhenmovementsinshort-runexpectationsdonottriggermovementsinexpectationsatlongerhorizons.Usingtime-varyingparameterregressions,weprovide

evidencethatanchoringhasvariednoticeablyacrosseconomiesandovertime.Inparticular,weAindthatstartingfromthesecondhalfof2008,inAlationexpectationsintheeuroarea,unlikeintheUSandintheUK,haveshownsignsofade-anchoring.Fulltext(pdf)

No.320:Short-term employment forecasts based on administrative data on

hirings and terminations

(March2016)

SabrinaFerretti,AndreaFilipponeandGiacinto

Micucci

ThisstudyfocusesonthediscrepanciesinthedataonemploymenttrendsthathaverecentlyemergedbetweenthatonhiringsandterminationsprovidedbytheMinistryofLabourandSocialPolicies,andworkforcesurveydata,releasedbyIstat.SinceJanuary2015theformerhasrecordedasubstantialincreaseinhirings,mostlyofpermanentemployees,whileaccordingtothelatter,employmentremainedsubstantiallystableintheAirstmonthsoftheyearandonlystartedtoincreaseinthesecondquarter.Thisispartlyexplainedbythedifferencesinthetypesofstatistics.NewjobsstartingatthebeginningofMarch,forexample,areincludedamongthehiringsfortheAirstquarterintheadministrativedata,butonlycontributebyonethirdtotheincreaseinaverageemploymentintheperiod;thesecontracts,iftheycontinueovertime,arenotincludedintheaveragedatauntilthesecondquarter.Thisstudyproposestousethistemporalcorrelationtocreateasimplestatisticalmodelthatexplainstheaforementioneddiscrepancies,andforecastsayear-on-yeargrowthofpayrollemployeesof1.2and1.8percentinthethirdandfourthquartersofthisyearcomparedwiththesameperiodof2014.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

No.319:Over-indebtedness in Italy: how widespread and persistent is it?

(March2016)

GiovanniD’AlessioandStefanoIezzi

Thepurposeofthispaperistoexaminethemeasuresofover-indebtednessproposedin



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theliteratureandtoapplythemtotheItaliancasefrom2008to2014byusingthewidearrayofinformationavailablefromtheBankofItaly’ssurveyonhouseholds.Thenumerousmeasuresofover-indebtednessarecriticallyanalysedfrombothacross-sectionalandahistoricalperspective.Thepanelalsoenablesustoanalysethetransitionintoandoutofover-indebtedness.Moreover,byusingtheEurosystem’sHouseholdFinanceandConsumptionSurvey(HFCS),wecancomparetheover-indebtednessofItalianhouseholdswiththatofothereuro-areacountries.Thepaperalsoaddressestheissueofthemeasurementerrorsthatcouldbiasboththelevelofover-indebtednessandestimatesofthetransitionintoandoutofit.Fulltext(pdf)

No.318:Labour, pro�it and housing rent shares in Italian GDP: long-run

trends and recent patterns

(March2016)

RobertoTorrini

TheshareoflabourincreasedintheAirsthalfofthe1970s,declinedslowlytoits1960slevelin2001,andsincethenhasbeenrising.Between1975and2001,thedeclineinthelaboursharewasdueinparttotherecoveryinproAits,andinparttoasteadyincreaseinhousingrentsonGDP,to13percentofvalueadded(5%in1975).Netofhousingrents,theshareofproAitsfelltoahistoricallowduringthegreatrecession.Inthebusinesssectornetofhousing,recoveryofthelabourshare,magniAiedbytherecentrecession,wasevidentinmanufacturingandindustriesotherthanregulatedsectors(energy,transport,communicationsandAinance),whereprivatizationsandchangestoregulationprovokedamarkeddropinthelabourshareinthelate1990s.Itentativelyexplainthetrendreversalinthelabourshareasduetoacompressioninthemark-upsonmarginalcostsandthedifAicultyexperiencedbyItalianAirmstoberewardedfortheirinnovationeffortsinamorecompetitiveenvironment.Fulltext(pdf)

No.317:Firms that went out of business during the crisis (March2016)

SabrinaFerretti,AndreaFilipponeandGiacinto

Micucci

ThispaperanalysestheItaliancompaniesthatAiledforbankruptcyorunderwentvoluntaryliquidationbetween2008and2012andidentiAiesthemaincharacteristicsofthisphenomenon.TheeconometricanalysisbasedonAirms’balancesheetdatasuggeststhattheprobabilityofgoingoutofbusinesswasgreaterforsmallerandyoungercompanies.Othercharacteristicsbeingequal,suchassize,sectorandgeographicallocation,thelikelihoodofaAirminitiatingbankruptcyproceedingswasmorestronglycorrelatedwithimbalancesinitsAinancialstructuresuchasahighleverageratio,whileaAirm’slikelihoodofoptingforvoluntaryliquidationwasinAluencedtoagreaterextentbylowproAitability.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

No.316:The ‘concordato preventivo’ in Italian corporate bankruptcy law:

a policy evaluation (March2016)

ClaudioCastelli,GiacintoMicucci,GiacomoRodano

andGuidoRomano

From2005to2013Italiancorporatebankruptcylawunderwentaseriesofreforms.Oneofthegoalswastoimprovethein-courtrestructuringproceedings(concordatopreventivo),mainlyasawaytopromotethecontinuityofdistressedbutstillviablecompanies.Thereformshavesucceededinbroadeningtheuseofrestructuringproceedings,eventakingintoaccounttheeffectsoftheeconomiccrisis.Theincreasehasbeenparticularlylargesincetheintroductionoftheconcordatoinbianco,whichallowstheAirmstopostponethepresentationoftheirrecoveryplan.Thereformshavethusimprovedthelikelihoodofsurvivalofdistressedbutstillviablecompanies.Nevertheless,onlyasmallproportionofcompanies(approximately4.5percent)isstillactiveafterrestructuring,themainpurposeofwhichremainstoprovideanalternativeformofliquidation,entailinga



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reducedroleforcourts,withrespecttobankruptcy.Theuseofrestructuringproceduresisduetothelengthofbankruptcyproceedingsinthecourts,aswellastothestructuralcharacteristicsofcompanies(largerproportionofAixedassets)andtheircreditrelations(smallerproportionofcollateralizedloans).Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

No.315:With (more than) a little help from my bank. Loan-to-value ratios and

access to mortgages in Italy

(February2016)

DaniloLiberatiandValerioVacca

Thispaperprovidesaframeworktolookattheaffordabilitybothoftheregularrepaymentofhousingdebt(anincomeconstraint)andoftheinitialdeposit(abudgetconstraint).AnalysisofthemicrodataonItalianhouseholdsintheperiod2006-2012indicatesthattheimprovedcapabilityofhouseholdstomaintaintheirmortgagerepaymentswascounterbalancedbytighterbudgetconstraints.Theframeworkcanbeemployedasatooltoassesstheimpactofmacroprudentialpolicies,suchascapsonloan-to-valueratios(LTVs),onthepoolofhouseholdswhocanaccessmortgageloanswithoutrunningintoAinancialdistress:thelevelandtheslopeofthe‘mortgageaffordabilitycurve’,thecurvethatshowstheshareofeligiblehouseholdsatdifferentLTVsprovidedbythebanks,changeovertimeanddependonthedeAinitionofhouseholdwealth.The2008-09crisisloweredtheshareofeligiblefamiliesathighLTVsandslightlyincreaseditatlowerLTVs.Moreover,weAindthatmortgagecapabilityworsenedmoreforthemiddleclassandthatthedeclineinItalianLTVsacrosstheperiodwasmainlysupplydriven,whereashouseholdpreferencesbarelychanged.Finally,alternativepoliciesaffectingmortgageaffordabilitydisplayheterogeneouseffectsbothinincreasinghouseholds’marketparticipationandinfosteringsaferlendingpolicies.Fulltext(pdf)

No.314:The tax burden on banks over the period 2006-2014 (February2016)

GiacomoRicotti,MarcoBurroni,Vincenzo

Cuciniello,ElenaPadovani,ElenaPisanoand

StefaniaZotteri

FollowingtheestablishmentoftheSingleSupervisoryMechanism(SSM),concernsabouthavingalevelplayingAieldbecomemoreimportantduetotheheterogeneityinbanktaxationrulesacrossEurope:measuringthetaxburdencanprovideaAirstroughmeasureoftheextentofheterogeneityacrosscountries.AfterareviewofthemaindifferencesinbankstaxationbetweenItaly,France,Germany,SpainandtheUK,thepaperprovidesestimatesforthetaxburdenanddeferredtaxassetsinthesecountriesovertheyears2006-2014;theimpactofdifferencesintaxationonbankproAitabilityisalsoexamined.Moreover,thepapercarriesoutamorein-depthanalysisofItalianbanksbyconsideringbothindividualbalancesheetdataandaggregatetaxreturndata.TheimpactoftaxmeasuresonAinancialstabilityandonproAitabilityisfurtheranalysed.Thecomparativeanalysispointstoawideheterogeneityacrosscountriesinthetaxtreatmentofthebankingsector.ThissuggeststhatitwouldbeadvantageoustoexplorepossiblewaystomakethetaxsystemsofthecountriesparticipatingintheSSMmorehomogeneous;aAirststepcouldbetoharmonizetaxbases.Fulltext(pdf)

No.313:Local policies for innovation: the case of technology districts in Italy

(February2016)

FedericaBertamino,RaffaelloBronzini,MarcoDe

MaggioandDavideRevelli

Inthispaperwestudyapolicytoolcalledtechnologydistricts,implementedinItalyoverthelastdecadetofosterlocalinnovationactivity.First,weexaminethecharacteristicsoftechnologydistrictsandthoseoftheAirmswithinthem.Next,weassesstheperformanceofdistrictAirms.WeAindthatinthesouthernregionstechnologydistrictsaremorenumerousbutsmallerthanthoselocatedintheCentre-North,arepoorlydiversiAiedfromasectorialpointofviewandmoredistantfromtheeconomicstructureofthearea.WeAindthattheAirmsthatdidjoinadistricthad



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previouslybeen,onaverage,larger,moreinnovativeandproAitable,andalsoshowhigherleveragethantheothers.OurresultsshowthatoverallafterthebirthofadistricttheperformanceoftheAirmsthatjoineditdidnotdiffersigniAicantlyfromthatofsimilarAirmsthatdidnot.Fulltext(pdf)

No.312:Internal controls in the Public Administration: current problems

and future challenges

(February2016)

AnnaPeta

Atthebeginningofthe1990s,inlinewithtrendsinotherEuropeancountries,theneedtoincreasetheefAiciencyofadministrativeactivityresultedinlegislativeinitiativestoextendsomeofthemanagementtoolsdevelopedintheprivatesectortothePublicAdministration.Amongtheseinstruments,animportantrolewasassignedtointernalcontrols.Overtwentyyearssincetheirintroduction,thefunctioningofpublicinternalcontrolsstilldisplaysseveralcriticalaspects.ThroughacomparativeassessmentwithotherEuropeanmodels,thispaperhighlightstheproblemsaffectingthelegalframeworkofItalianpublicinternalcontrols,suchasthelackofaclearlyidentiAiedinternalauditstructure;thepaperalsopointsoutthatcontrolsfocusalmostexclusivelyonformalratherthansubstantiveaspects.Moreover,theresultsofpastperformanceappraisalactivitiesshowthattheprinciplesof"accountability"and"transparency"arenotwidelyappliedwithinthePublicAdministration,thusunderminingtheeffectivenessandusefulnessofinternalcontrols.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

No.311:The management of non-performing loans: a survey among

the main Italian banks

(February2016)

LuisaCarpinelli,GiuseppeCascarino,Silvia

GiacomelliandValerioVacca

ThisstudypresentstheresultsofasurveycarriedoutbytheBankofItalyin2015ontheefAiciencyofcreditrecoveryproceduresundertakenbythemainItalianbankinggroups.Therecoveryrateforliquidationsintheyears2011-2014wasslightlyabove40percent,andthe

largestshareoftherecoverywasobtainedwithintheAirstAiveyearsfromthestartoftheprocedure.Fouryearsafterthedebtrestructuringsbegan,almosttwothirdsarestillunderway.Theaverageageofliquidationsattheendof2014wastwicethatofdebtrestructuringsandeightpercentagepointsmoreofloansbeingrestructuredarecollateralizedthanthosebeingliquidated.In2014themanagementofnon-performingloansabsorbed2.8percentofbanks’operatingcosts,alargersharethaninpreviousyears.Thestudyfoundnotonlydifferencesinthesystemsadoptedbythebanksformanagingnon-performingloansbutalsodifferencesintheamountofinformationavailableonthetopicscoveredbythesurvey.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

No.310:Incentives and evaluation of public managers in Italy

(February2016)

RobertaOcchilupoandLuciaRizzica

WeanalysethecurrentlegislationonincentivesforpublicmanagersinItalyandthemostrecentdevelopmentsinthesector.InthelightofthemainAindingsofeconomictheory,weidentifythemostcriticalissuesaffectingthedesignofanoptimalsystemofincentives.Thesearetheexistenceofmulti-principleagencyproblemsinvolvingpublicmanagers;thedifAicultyofobservingandmeasuringtheoutputofthepublicsector;andtheexcessivelimitationsonmanagers’autonomyarisingfromtheneedtorespecttheruleoflaw.Alongthesethreelines,weanalysethepublicmanagementreformsthathavebeenintroducedinItalysincethe1990sandevaluatetheireffectivenessbymeansofanempiricalanalysisofthepremiumspaidtopublicmanagersin2012.ThisrevealsasubstantialAlatteningofthepremiumspaidandhighlightsthatonlytheageofthemanagerandnootherindividualcharacteristics,suchasprofessionalexperienceorspeciAicskills,signiAicantlyaffectstheamountreceived.Weconcludethattheineffectivenessofthecurrentsystemofincentivesforpublicmanagersisduemainlytotheblanketapplicationofthesamerulestoallorganizations,toinadequatelyidentiAiedobjectives,andtoexcessivelimitationsonmanagers’autonomy.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly


http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0313/QEF_313_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0312/QEF_312_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0311/QEF_311_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0310/QEF_310_16.pdf?language_id=1

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No.309:E-Government in Italy: current issues and future perspectives

(February2016)

CarloMariaArpaia,PasqualeFerro,WalterGiuzio,

GiorgioIvaldiandDanielaMonacelli

Thepaperexaminesthedevelopmentofe-GovernmentinItalyanditscriticalaspects.ThemainobstaclesliebothincitizenslaggingbehindintheirdigitalskillsandthefactthatthepublicsectorseemsunabletofullyexploitthebeneAitsofcomputerization.ICTusebythepublicsectorismainlydirectedatinternalprocessesandlessattheprovisionofservices.Moreover,thedigitalizationprocesshasoftenoverlookedthe‘networking’capabilityofpublicinformationsystems,havingeffectivelybeenlefttotheinitiativeofindividualinstitutionsinaframeworkofweakgovernanceatcentrallevel.Digitalizationiscurrentlymovingtowardsatop-downapproachaimingatsolutionsextendableoverallthepublicsector.Itrelieson“system-wideprojects”,whichareonanationalscale,havealargeimpactontheindividualentities’applications,andAixstandardsforinteroperabilityamongsystems.Thisprocessmustbeaccompanied,however,by‘ownership’oftheimplementationbyindividualentities,whichisessentialtotriggerthemanagementandorganizationalchangesneededtotakefulladvantageofICT.Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

No.308:The debt of Italian non-�inancial �irms: an international

comparison (February2016)

AntonioDeSocioandPaoloFinaldiRusso

Intherun-uptotheAinancialcrisisItalianAirmssigniAicantlyincreasedtheirdebtinabsolutetermsandinrelationtoequityandGDP.ThepositivegapinAirms’leveragebetweenItalyandothereuro-areacountrieshaswidenedinrecentyears,despitetheoutstandingdebtofItalianAirmshasdecreasedsince2011.InthisworkwedocumentthemagnitudeofthisgapusingbothaggregatemacrodataandAirm-levelinformation.WeAindthat,controllingforseveralAirm-speciAiccharacteristics(i.e.age,proAitability,assettangibility,assetliquidity,turnovergrowth),theleverageofItalianAirmsisabout10percentage

pointshigherthaninothereuroareacountries.DifferencesaresystematicallylargeramongmicroandsmallAirms,whereastheyaresmallandweaklysigniAicantforAirmswithassetsabove300millioneuros.Fulltext(pdf)

No.307:Investment and investment �inancing in Italy: some evidence

at the macro level (February2016)

ClaireGiordano,MarcoMarinucciandAndrea

Silvestrini

WeanalysethedevelopmentsofinvestmentandinvestmentAinancinginItalysince1995,basedondatafromnationalaccountsandtheAlowoffunds.TheexceptionalfallininvestmentaftertheglobalAinancialcrisisin2007concernedallinstitutionalsectorsandassetcategories.However,appropriatelydeAlateddatahighlightthemoreintensefallofhouseholdcapitalexpenditure.Consistently,ontheassetside,constructionwasoneofthemosthard-hitcapitalgoods;ICTandintangibleinvestmentinsteadweatheredthedoublerecessionbetter.FocusingoninvestmentAinancing,theeruptionofthecrisiscausedamajorcontractionintheavailabilityofexternalAinancefornon-Ainancialcorporationsandhouseholds.Long-termloanstonon-Ainancialcorporationsbecamemoreimportant,crowdingouttheirshort-termcounterparts.AlsotheweightofdebtsecuritiesincreasedsigniAicantly,especiallyafter2008.Fulltext(pdf)



R��B��I��-N�� NRST��42,AU�V�2016

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January 2016

No.306:EuroareasigniAicantbanks:maindifferencesandrecentperformanceEmiliaBonaccorsidiPatti,RobertoFelici

andFedericoMariaSignoretti

No.305:Determinantsofthemovementsintheeuro-dollarexchangerateduringthesovereigndebtcrisisAlessioAnzuini,MartinaCecioniand

StefanoNeri

No.304:Valuechainsandthegreatrecession:evidencefromItalianandGermanAirmsAntonioAccetturoandAnnaGiunta

No.303:HeterogeneousfallinproductivecapacityinItalianindustryduringthe2008-13double-diprecessionAndreaLocatelli,LiberoMonteforteand

GiordanoZevi

No.302:AninquiryintomanufacturingcapacityinItalyafterthedouble-diprecessionLiberoMonteforteandGiordanoZevi

No.301:Howdoesmultinationalproductionaffectthemeasurementofcompetitiveness?StefanoFederico

December 2015

No.300:Prudentialpolicyattimesofstagnation:aviewfromthetrenchesPiergiorgioAlessandriandFabioPanetta

No.299:Financeandcreativedestruction:evidenceforItalyFrancescaLottiandFrancescoManaresi

November 2015

No.298:NetemploymentgrowthbyAirmsizeandageinItalyFrancescoManaresi

No.297:WhydoAirmshireonaAixed-termbasis?EvidencefromlongitudinaldataFabrizioColonnaandGiuliaGiupponi

Other recent occasional papers

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0306/QEF_306_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0305/QEF_305_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0304/QEF_304_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0303/QEF_303_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0302/QEF_302_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2016-0301/QEF_301_16.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2015-0300/QEF_300_15.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2015-0299/QEF_299_15.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2015-0298/QEF_298_15.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2015-0297/QEF_297_15.pdf?language_id=1

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17

No.36: Historicalarchiveofcreditin

Italy(January2016)

SandraNatoli,PaoloPiselli,IvanTrigliaand

FrancescoVercelli

ThispaperpresentstheArchivioStoricodelCreditoinItalia(ASCI),acomprehensivedatabaseofbalancesheetdatafornearly2,600

Italianbanksonanannualbasisfortheperiod

1890-1973.Theworkdrawsonearlierwork

carriedoutbytheBankofItalyfortheperiod

1890-1936(publishedin1996)andincorporates

informationcollectedbytheBankofItalyaspart

ofitsbankingsupervisionactivityfrom1936

onwards.ASCIissuitableforanalyzingavariety

ofcreditphenomena,giventhehigh

representativenessofthebankingsystemandthe

largeamountofbalancesheetdataavailable.

Basedonthisnewdataset,weprovideasketchof

theevolutionoftheItalianbankingsystem

between1890and1973,exploringthe

compositionofthebalancesheetsacrossbank

categories,theregionaldistributionofbanksand

thedegreeofconcentration.

Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

No.35: Regionalgrowthwithspatial

dependence:acasestudyon

earlyItalianindustrialization

(January2016)

CarloCiccarelliandStefanoFachin

Thispaperestimatesaconditionalβ-convergencemodeloflaborproductivitygrowthinItaly’smanufacturingindustryduring

1871-1911,accountingforspatialdependence.

Theempiricalevidenceisbasedonarecentsetof

dataatprovincial(NUTS3)levelon

manufacturingvalueaddedat1911prices,anda

newsetofdataonhumanandsocialcapital,

politicalparticipation,andinfrastructures.By

focusingonacountryandatimewhenthe

agglomerationforcesandspillovereffects

advocatedbytheneweconomicgeographywere

onlystartingtooperate,wecaninvestigatea

particularlyinterestingcasestudy.Ourresults

suggestthathumancapital,acooperativeculture,

andinitialproductivityinneighboringprovinces

canexplainmuchofthegeographicalvariability

ofproductivitygrowthinmanufacturingin

nineteenth-centuryItaly.

Fulltext(pdf)

EconomicHistoryworkingpaper

GDPforItaly’sHistory.AUser’sManual

(September2015)

AlbertoBaf!igi

AsameasureofeconomicgrowthGDP(anditscomponents)needtobehandledwithcare,fortheinterpretativefallaciestowhichtheycan

lead,especiallyoverlongperiodsofhistory.The

bookdevotesamplespacetothedangersthat

economichistoriansusingquantitativeevidence

normallyface,relatedbothtotheconceptual

contentofthedatausedintheirstudiesandtothe

difOicultyinextractinginformationfromoldand

disparatehistoricalsources.Historicalseriesfor

Italyhavebeenreconstructedoverthelast40

yearsbydifferentscholars–someofthem

memberofourresearchgroup–using

heterogeneousmethodsandreferringtodifferent

timerangesandsectors.Inordertoobtainnew

nationalaccountsseriesfrom1861tothepresent,

wehadtoreconcilethevariousavailableseries

andtranslatethemintothelanguageofanational

accountsstandard.Thesourcesandmethodsused

arethoroughlydescribedinthebookandare

accessible,intheformofdataspreadsheets,inthe

Historicalstatisticssectionofthewebsiteofthe

BankofItaly.

Fulltext(pdf)inItalianonly

HistoricalseriesoftheBankofItaly

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/quaderni-storia/2016-0036/QSE-36.PDF?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/quaderni-storia/2016-0035/QSE-35.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/collana-storica/pil-storia-italia/index.html

R��B��I��-N�� N��42,A��2016

18

No.21: Globalvaluechains:newevidence

andimplications(March2016)

CarloCiccarelliandStefanoFachin

Theworkshopentitled‘GlobalValueChains:newevidenceandimplications’washeldinRomeonthe22ndofJune2015.Theworkshop

presentedtheresultsofaresearchproject

carriedoutbyagroupofeconomistsfromthe

Bank’sDirectorateGeneralforEconomics,

StatisticsandResearch.

TheOirstsessionfocusesonthestructureof

globalvaluechainsandhowtheyfunctioninthe

euroareaeconomies.Thesecondandthird

sessionsexaminetheimplicationsofglobalvalue

chainsoncompetitivenessandeconomic

performance,respectively.Thelastsession

concentratesonspeciOiccountries,regionsand

Oirms.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.20: BeyondtheAusterityDispute:New

PrioritiesforFiscalPolicy(March

2016)

TheworkshopaimedatmovingforwardtheOiscalpolicydebate,whichinthecrisisyearswasunavoidablyfocusedonhowtoregainOiscal

credibilityandtoimplementsizableandfast

consolidationplans.Fourmainthemeshavebeen

proposedforthedebateduringtheworkshop.

First,thetwo-waylinkbetweenOiscal

consolidationandinequality,withtheideathat

consolidationeffortscannotbesuccessfulinthe

longruniftheyentailasociallyunsustainable

increaseininequality.

Second,theimportanceofpreserving,evenin

contextsinwhichtheOiscalpolicystanceis

necessarilyrestrictive,growth-enhancingpublic

investments.

Third,thechallengesposedtoOiscalmanagement

byalowinOlationcontext,takingintoaccount

thatasubduedpricedynamicsnotonlymakes

therealburdenofdebtheavier,butitalsohas

subtleeffects,atleastintheshortterm,on

severalbudgetaryitems.Finally,theneedfora

simplerandmoreappropriatesetofrulesforthe

governanceoftheEMU.Thelattertopicwasalso

theobjectofthehigh-levelpanelattheendofthe

workshop.Whiledifferencesinemphasis

emergedamongthepanellists,theyagreedthat

thecurrentframeworkcouldbestreamlined,and

–moreimportantly–thatnosetofrulescan

workiftrustandasenseofsharingacommon

objectiveisnotrebuiltamongtheMemberStates.

Fulltext(pdf)

WorkshopsandConferencesseries

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/collana-seminari-convegni/2016-0021/atti_workshop_GVCs.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/collana-seminari-convegni/2016-0020/Beyond_the_Austerity_Dispute_-_New_Priorities_for_Fiscal_Policy.pdf?language_id=1

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19

and books by Bank of Italy staff Authors’ names in boldface: Bank of Italy

Fulllistsince1990

Forthcoming

Albanese G., G. de Blasio andP. Sestito,“MyParentsTaughtMe.EvidenceonTheFamilyTransmissionofValues”,JournalofPopulationEconomics.(WPNo.955)

Andini M.andG. de Blasio,“LocalDevelopmentthatMoneycannotBuy:Italy’sContrattidiProgramma”,JournalofEconomicGeography.(WPNo.915)

Bonaccorsi di Patti E.andE. Sette,“DidtheSecuritizationMarketFreezeAffectBankLendingDuringtheFinancialCrisis?EvidencefromaCreditRegister”,JournalofFinancialIntermediation.(WPNo.848)

BragoliD.,M. RigonandF.Zanetti,“OptimalInAlationWeightsintheEuroArea”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking.

Bripi F.,“TheRoleofRegulationonEntry:EvidenceFromtheItalianProvinces”,WorldBankEconomicReview.(WPNo.932)

Bronzini R.andP. Piselli,“TheImpactofR&DSubsidiesonFirmInnovation”,ResearchPolicy.(WPNo.960)

Burlon L.,“PublicExpenditureDistribution,Voting,andGrowth”,JournalofPublicEconomicTheory(WPNo.961)

Caccavaio M., L. Carpinelli, G. MarinelliandE. Sette,“ShockTransmissionthroughInternationalBanks:theItalianCase”,IMFEconomicReview.(OPNo.232)

CaiY.,K.Judd,T.Lontzek,V. MichelangeliandC.Su,“Non-linearProgrammingMethodforDynamicProgramming”,MacroeconomicDynamics.

CalzaA.andA. Zaghini,“Shoe-LeatherCostsintheEuroAreaandtheForeignDemandforEuroBanknotes”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking.(WPNo.1039)

Casiraghi M., E. Gaiotti, L. RodanoandA. Secchi,“ECBUnconventionalMonetaryPolicyandtheItalianEconomyDuringtheSovereignDebtCrisis”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking.(OPNo.203)

Coin D.andV. Vacca,“Non-BankFinanceforFirms:theRoleofPrivateEquityFundsinItaly”,EmpiricalEconomics.

de Blasio G., D. Fantino andG. Pellegrini,“EvaluatingtheImpactofInnovationIncentives:EvidencefromanUnexpectedShortageofFunds”,IndustrialandCorporateChange.(WPNo.792)

Di Nino V.andI. Faiella,“ShaleFuels:TheSolutiontotheEnergyConundrum?”,inRossellaBardazzi,MariaGraziaPazienza,AlbertoTonini(eds.):

EuropeanEnergyandClimateSecurity,Springer.(OPNo.205)

Liberati D., M. Marinucci andG. M. Tanzi,“ScienceandTechnologyParksinItaly:MainFeaturesandAnalysisoftheirEffectsonHostedFirms”,JournalofTechnologyTransfer.

MarcellinoM.,M. PorquedduandF. Venditti,“Short-TermGDPForecastingwithaMixedFrequencyDynamicFactorModelwithStochasticVolatility”,JournalofBusiness&EconomicStatistics.(WPNo.896)

Sette E., F.Ippolito,J.PeydroandA.Polo,“DoubleBankRunsandLiquidityRiskManagement”,JournalofFinancialEconomics.

Zinna G., “PricePressuresonUKRealRates:anEmpiricalInvestigation”,ReviewofFinance.(WPNo.968)

________________________________________________________

2015

AabergeR.andA. Brandolini,“MultidimensionalPovertyandInequality”,inCinA.B.AtkinsonandF.Bourguignon(eds.),HandbookofIncomeDistribution,Volume2A,Amsterdam,Elsevier.(WPNo.976)

AlbertazziU.,G. Eramo,L.Gambacorta,andC.Salleo,“AsymmetricInformationinSecuritization:AnEmpiricalAssessment”,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,v.71,pp.33-49.

Alessandri P.andB.Nelson,“Simplebanking:proAitabilityandtheyieldcurve”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.47,1,pp.143-175.(WPNo.945)

AtkinsonA.andA. Brandolini,“UnveilingtheEthicsbehindInequalityMeasurement:Dalton’sContributiontoEconomics”,EconomicJournal,v.125,583,pp.209-234.

Barone G.,F.D’AcuntoandG.Narciso,“Telecracy:TestingforChannelsofPersuasion”,AmericanEconomicJournal:EconomicPolicy,v.7,2,pp.30-60.

Barone G.andG.Narciso,“OrganizedCrimeandBusinessSubsidies:WheredoestheMoneyGo?”,JournalofUrbanEconomics,v.86,pp.98-110.(WPNo.916)

Brandolini A.,“TheBigChill.ItalianFamilyBudgetsaftertheGreatRecession”,inC.FusaroandA.Kreppel(eds.),ItalianPolitics2013,NewYork,Berghahn.

Breda E., R. CapparielloandR. Zizza,“TheVerticalSpecializationinEurope:EvidencefromtheImportContentofExports”,inL.Lambertini(eds.)Firms’ObjectivesandInternalOrganisationinaGlobal

Economy:PositiveandNormativeAnalysis,PalgraveMacMillan.(WPNo.682)

Selection of Journal articles

http://www.bancaditalia.it/compiti/ricerca-economica/web_ricerca.zip?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0955/en_tema_955.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0915/en_tema_915.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0848/en_tema_848.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0932/en_tema_932.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0960/en_tema_960.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0961/en_tema_961.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2014-0232/QEF-232.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1039/en_tema_1039.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2013-0203/QEF_203.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2011/2011-0792/en_tema_792.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0896/en_tema_896.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0968/968.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0976/en_tema_976.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0945/en_tema_945.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0916/en_tema_916.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2008/2008-0682/en_tema_682.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2013-0205/QEF_205.pdf?language_id=1

R��B��I��-N�� NRST��42,AU�V�2016

20


Bugamelli M., S. FabianiandE. Sette,“TheAgeoftheDragon:TheEffectofImportsfromChinaonFirm-levelPrices”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.47,6,pp.1091-1118.(WPNo.737)

Bugamelli M., E. GaiottiandE. Viviano,“DomesticandForeignSales:ComplementsorSubstitutes?”,EconomicsLetters,v.135,pp.46-51.(OPNo.248)

Bulligan G.,M.MarcellinoandF. Venditti,“ForecastingEconomicActivitywithTargetedPredictors”,InternationalJournalofForecasting,v.31,1,pp.188-206.(WPNo.847)

Caprioli F., “OptimalFiscalPolicyUnderLearning”,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,v.58,pp.101-124.

Cuciniello V. andF. Signoretti,“Banks,LoanRateMarkupandMonetaryPolicy”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.11,3,pp.141-177.(WPNo.987)

DecarolisF.andG. Palumbo,“RenegotiationofPublicContracts:AnEmpiricalAnalysis”,EconomicsLetters,v.132,pp.77-81.

DegasperiP.andM. Stacchini, “Trust,FamilyBusinessesandFinancialIntermediation”,JournalofCorporateFinance,v.33,pp.293-316.

Depalo D., R. Giordano andE. Papapetrou,“Public-PrivateWageDifferentialsinEuroAreaCountries:EvidencefromQuantileDecompositionAnalysis”,EmpiricalEconomics,v.49,3,pp.985-1115.(WPNo.907)

Di Iasio G.,M.Gallegati,F.LilloandR.Mantegna,“TheInterlinkagesandSystemicRisk:Foreword”,QuantitativeFinance,v.15,4,pp.587-588.

Di Iasio G.,L. Infante,F.Pierobon,L.BargigliandF.Lillo,“TheMultiplexStructureofInterbankNetworks”,QuantitativeFinance,v.15,4,pp.673-691.

FratzscherM.,D.Rimec,L.SarnobandG.G. Zinna.,“TheScapegoatTheoryofExchangeRates:TheFirstTests”,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,v.70,1,pp.1-21.(WPNo.991)

Gobbi, G. andE. Sette,“RelationshipLendingDuringaFinancialCrisis”,JournaloftheEuropeanEconomicAssociation,v.13,3,pp.453-481.

GuisoL.andE. Viviano,“HowMuchCanFinancialLiteracyHelp?”,ReviewofFinance,v.19,4,pp.1347-1382.

LuciforaC.andM. Tonello,“CheatingandSocialInteractions.EvidencefromaRandomizedExperimentinaNationalEvaluationProgram”,JournalofEconomicBehavior&Organization,v.115,pp.45-66.

Makinen T. andB.Ohl,“InformationAcquisitionandLearningfromPricesOvertheBusinessCycle”,JournalofEconomicTheory,158B,pp.585–633.(WPNo.946)

Mercatanti A., “BayesianInferenceforRandomizedExperimentswithNoncomplianceandNonignorableMissingData”,inA.Paganoni,P.Secchi(eds.),Advancesincomplexdatamodellingandcomputationalmethodsinstatistics,Springer.

Michelangeli V.andM. Pietrunti,“AssessingtheFinancialVulnerabilityofItalianHouseholds:aMicrosimulationApproach”,inBankforInternationalSettlements(ed.),Indicatorstosupportmonetaryandfinancialstabilityanalysis:datasources

andstatisticalmethodologies,volume39,BankforInternationalSettlements.

Notarpietro A. andS. Siviero,“OptimalMonetaryPolicyRulesandHousePrices:TheRoleofFinancialFrictions”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.47,S1,pp.383-410.(WPNo.993)

Riggi M.and S. Santoro,“OnTheSlopeandthePersistenceoftheItalianPhillipsCurve”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.11,2,pp.157-197.

Riggi M.and F. Venditti,“TheTimeVaryingEffectofOilPriceShocksonEuro-AreaExports”,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,v.59,pp.75-94.(WPNo.1035)

________________________________________________________

2014

AeberhardtR.,I. Buono andH.Fadinger,“Learning,IncompleteContractsandExportDynamics:TheoryandEvidencefromFrenchFirms”,EuropeanEconomicReview,v.68,pp.219-249.

Accetturo A.,A.Dalmazzo andG. de Blasio,“SkillPolarizationinLocalLaborMarketsunderShare-AlteringTechnicalChange”,JournalofRegionalScience,v.54,2,pp.249-272.

Accetturo A.,G. de Blasio andL.Ricci,“ATaleofanUnwantedOutcome:TransfersandLocalEndowmentsofTrustandCooperation”,JournalofEconomicBehaviorandOrganization,v.102,pp.74-89.

Accetturo A.,F. Manaresi,S. Mocetti andE. Olivieri,“Don'tStandSoClosetoMe:TheUrbanImpactofImmigration”,RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics,v.45,pp.45-56.(WPNo.866)

Albertazzi U.,T. Ropele,G. Sene andF. M. Signoretti,“TheImpactoftheSovereignDebtCrisisontheActivityofItalianBanks”,JournalofBanking&Finance,v.46,pp.387-402.

Albertazzi U.andM. Bottero,“ForeignBankLending:EvidencefromtheGlobalFinancialCrisis”,JournalofInternationalEconomics,v.92,1,pp.22-35.(WPNo.926)

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2010/2010-0737/en_tema_737.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2014-0248/QEF_248.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0847/en_tema_847.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0987/en_tema_987.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0907/en_tema_907.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0991/en_tema_991.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0946/en_tema_946.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2014/2014-0993/en_tema_993.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1035/en_tema_1035.pdf?language_id=1http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2012/2012-0866/en_tema_866.pdfhttp://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2013/2013-0926/en_tema_926.pdf

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Andini M.andC.Andini,“Finance,GrowthandQuantileParameterHeterogeneity”,JournalofMacroeconomics,v.40,pp.308-22.

Angelini P., S. Neri andF. Panetta,“TheInteractionbetweenCapitalRequirementsandMonetaryPolicy”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.46,6,pp.1073-1112.(WPNo.801)

Anzuini A., M. Lombardi andP. Pagano,“TheImpactofMonetaryPolicyShocksonCommodityPrices”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.9,3,pp.119-144.(WPNo.851)

BauduccoS.and F. Caprioli,“OptimalFiscalPolicyinaSmallOpenEconomywithLimitedCommitment”,JournalofInternationalEconomics,v.93,2,pp.302-315.

Barbiellini Amidei, F. andC. Giordano,“Theredesignofthebank-industry-AinancialmarkettiesintheU.S.Glass-Steagallandthe1936ItalianBankingActs”,inP.Clement,James,H.,VanderWee,H.(eds.),FinancialInnovation,RegulationandCrisesin

History,London,Pickering&ChattoPublishers.

Bardozzetti A.andD. Dottori,“CollectiveActionClauses:HowDoTheyAffectSovereignBondYields?”,JournalofInternationalEconomics,v.92,2,pp.286-303.

BarigozziM.,A. Conti and M.Luciani,“DoEuroAreaCountriesRespondAsymmetricallytotheCommonMonetaryPolicy?”,OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,v.76,5,pp.693-714.(WPNo.923)

Barone G.andS. Mocetti,“NaturalDisasters,GrowthandInstitutions:aTaleofTwoEarthquakes”,JournalofUrbanEconomics,v.84,pp.52-66.(WPNo.949)

BragaM., M. PaccagnellaandM.Pellizzari,“EvaluatingStudents’EvaluationsofProfessors”,EconomicsofEducationReview,v.41,pp.71-88.(WPNo.825)

Bronzini R.andE. Iachini,“AreIncentivesforR&DEffective?EvidencefromaRegressionDiscontinuityApproach”,AmericanEconomicJournal:EconomicPolicy,v.6,4,pp.100-134.(WPNo.791)

CarlucciF.and F. Montaruli,“Co-integratingVARModelsandEconomicPolicy”,JournalofEconomicSurveys,v.28,1,pp.68-81.

Cuciniello V.,“MonetaryandLaborInteractionsinaMonetaryUnion”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.10,4,pp.1-30.

Dalmazzo A.,P. Pin andD. Scalise,“CommunitiesandSocialInefAiciencywitheterogeneousgroups”,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,v.48,pp.410-427.

D’Amuri F.andG.Peri,“Immigration,JobsandEmploymentProtection:EvidencefromEuropebeforeandduringtheGreatRecession”,JournaloftheEuropeanEconomicAssociation.,v.12,2,pp.432-464.(WPNo.886)

D’Ignazio A. andE.Giovannetti,“ContinentalDifferencesintheClustersofIntegration:EmpiricalEvidencefromtheDigitalCommoditiesGlobalSupplyChainNetworks”,InternationalJournalofProductionEconomics,v.147,pp.486-497.

Di Giacinto V., M. Gomellini, G. Micucci andM. Pagnini,“MappinglocalproductivityadvantagesinItaly:industrialdistricts,citiesorboth?”,JournalofEconomicGeography,v.14,pp.365–394.(WPNo.850)

Federico S., “Industrydynamicsandcompetitionfromlow-wagecountries:EvidenceonItaly”,OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,v.76,3,pp.389-410.(WPNo.879)

Francese M.,MPiacenza,M. RomanelliandG.Turati,“UnderstandingInappropriatnessinHealthCare.TheRoleofSupplyStructure,PricingPoliciesandPoliticalInstitutionsinCaesareanDeliveries”,RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics,v.49,pp.262-277.

Francese M.andM. Romanelli,“IsThereRoomforContainingHealthcareCosts?AnAnalysisofRegionalSpendingDifferentialsinItaly”,EuropeanJournalofHealthEconomics,v.15,2,pp.117-132.(WPNo.828)

Franco D.andF. Zollino,“MacroeconomicImbalancesinEurope:InstitutionalProgressandtheChallengesThatRemain”,AppliedEconomics,v.46,4-6,pp.589-602.

GambacortaL.andP. E. Mistrulli,“BankHeterogeneityandInterestRateSetting:WhatLessonshaveweLearnedsinceLehmanBrothers?”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.46,4,pp.753-778.(WPNo.829)

GambacortaL.andF. M. Signoretti,“ShouldMonetaryPolicyLeanAgainsttheWind?AnAnalysisBasedonaDSGEModelwithBanking”,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,v.43,pp.146-174.(WPNo.921)

Gennari E.andG. Messina,“HowStickyareLocalExpendituresinItaly?AssessingtheRelevanceoftheFlypaperEffectthroughMunicipalData”,InternationalTaxandPublicFinance,v.21,2,pp.324-344.(WPNo.844)

Giordano C.,G.PigaandG.Trovato,“FascistItaly'sIndustrialGreatDepression:FascistPriceandWagePolicies”,MacroeconomicDynamics,v.18,3,pp.689-720.

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