Highlights Overview Project Activity July 2005 – August 2006.
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Transcript of Highlights Overview Project Activity July 2005 – August 2006.
Highlights
Overview Project ActivityJuly 2005 – August 2006
Theme 1: Patterns and Variability
Multiple Constraints Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation
Rayner et al. 2005
• Transport Model• Atmospheric CO2
1 constraint
2 constraints
Trace Gas Transport Model InterComparison
• Transport Model• Terrest. Biosphere• AVHRR-PAR• Atmospheric CO2
(Parameter Estimation) Optimization InterComparison10 participant groups[CSIRO-ESA funded]
Final synthesis 20062 papers
Optimization InterComparison
Carbon Fusion: UK-NERC and other partners
Data Assimilation:US-NSF proposal (submitted)
Contributing to:
Theme 1 Lead by Raupach
Dynamic Regional Carbon Budgets and MethodologiesConference: Beijing, 16-19 August 2006 - International
Workshop: Beijing, 20 August 2006 – Focus on Asia Pacific
Theme 1
1. Synthesis Papers (in preparation) for special Issue2. Model intercomparsion on regional carbon budgets:
• 1st stage: China (2006-07)• 2nd stage: Asia Pacific (2007-08)
Lead by GCP-Beijing Office, Canadell
Regional Project on Carbon and Water Issues in SE Asia
Theme 1
1. "Regional project on carbon and water issues in SE Asia" has funded 7 projects with PIs from Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines in 2006.
2. "Advanced training workshop on carbon and water issues in SE Asia" An international team of 18 lecturers from 8 countries provided training to 33 junior faculty and senior technician/staff from 13 countries in Southeast Asia (including Australia) and South Asia. A new workshop will be held next November. The Workshop was organized by the Southeast Asia Regional Committee for START (SARCS) and sponsored by the GCP.
Lead by Chen
Annual Update of the Global Carbon Budget
Lead by Lequere, Canadell Theme 1
Short News in Science/EOS
Media event with Press Release
Website
Theme 2: Processes and Feedbacks
Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century
Permafrost
HL PeatlandsT PeatlandsVeg.-Fire/LUC
CH4 HydratesBiological PumpSolubility Pump
Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate-Human System
Oceans
Land
GCP 2005
1. To updated Geo-referenced database on frozen carbon stocks.
2. To develop a conceptual framework with all processes and feedbacks to understand future dynamics.
3. To synthesize century-scale permafrost dynamics from GCMs and 1-D models.
4. Overall Synthesis: Vulnerable in permafrost carbon.
Vulnerability of Frozen Carbon
Workshop Series 2006-08Funded by:
European Science Foundation;National Center for
Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS-NSF);
ICSU grant to IGBP
Theme 2
Partnership:Global Carbon Project (GCP)International Permafrost Association (IPA) Climate and Cryosphere (CliC-WCRP)
1st meeting Santa Barbara, CAFebruary 2006
Lead by Field & Canadell
Vulnerability of Carbon in Tropical Peatlands
Workshop Series (2006-08)Funded by:Asia Pacific Network, GCP, GEC, CIFOR1st Wk: January 2006, Sumatra, Indonesia
Theme 2
Partnership:Global Carbon Project (GCP)Global Environment Center-Malaysia (GEC)CIFOR-Bogor (Indonesia)
Undertaken Research & Synthesis:
• Update on extent and C stocks• Land use change impacts• Fire impacts• Future C emissions (scenarios)
Special Issue in ECOSYSTEMS (submission 2007)
New Research:
• Carbon transport by water in Kalimantan (Chen’s Program)• Mitigation and Adaptation: reducing vulnerability through conservation and sustainable use of peatland (APN, CIFOR)• EU – to sponsor 2007-10 Wks
Lead by Canadell, Parish, Murdiyarso
Vulnerabilities of the C cycle to Drought and Fire
Theme 2
• Theme 1: Observations of Climate Change, Variability and the Carbon Cycle• Theme 2: Processes and Controls of Coupled Carbon-Water Cycles• Theme 3: Modeling Present and Future Interactions of Carbon and Hydrological Cycles• Theme 4: Vulnerability and Ecosystem Services of Carbon-Water Cycles
Are regional drying trends weakening the terrestrial carbon sink?
1997-98 SEA Tropical
1.4 PgC
01,02,03SEA Trop.1.2 PgC
1994-2002High-Mid LatitudeSummers undo the benefits of earlier spring
2003Europe0.5 PgC
2002-present0.2 Pg C
2003Siberia0.2 PgC
1997 AmazonFire Year 2005
Amazon1 Pg C
Australian Academy of Science,
Canberra, Australia, 5-9 June 2006
Co-sponsors:GCP, Australian
AR-ESS-N, AIMES, ESF
Lead by Raupach & Canadell
Vulnerabilities: Synthesis and Integration
Theme 2
• Raupach MR, Canadell JG (2006)
Observing a vulnerable carbon cycle. In: Observing the Continental Scale Greenhouse Gas Balance of Europe (eds. H. Dolman, R. Valentini, A. Freibauer), Springer, Berlin (submitted).
• Canadell JG, Gifford R, Houghton S, Pataki D, Raupach MR, Smith P, Steffen W (2006)
Saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink. In: Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, Canadell JG, Pataki D, Pitelka L (eds.). The IGBP Series. Springer, Berlin (in press)
Theme 3: Carbon Management
Open Science Conference
Theme 3
Co-Sponsors:AIMES; START; Global Land Project; IHDP/IGBP Urbanization Project;
Industrial Transformation (IT); National Institute of Ecology (INE); and Metropolitan Autonomous University
Carbon Management at Urban and Regional Levels:Connecting Development Decisions to Global Issues
Mexico City, September 4-8, 2006
Lead by Romero, Dhakal
Earth System Science Partnership
B. Relatively shorter-term carbon management perspective inside cities and regionsA. Longer-term regional carbon management perspective Diagnostic approach Solution-seeking approach
Energy use from fossil fuelHolistic analysesSectoral analyses
Land use changes
Holistic variables such as POETIC*
Specific and focused variables such as lifestyle, population etc.
Energy choice BuildingsTransportPollution management
Direct and embodied
carbon emissions and sinks
Locally, at urban and regional levelsNationallyInternational mechanisms and emerging climate regimes
Urban and regional
development scenario and assessing its
carbon consequences
Regional development
pathways and its implications on
carbon (1)
Carbon accounting
(2)
Analyzing proximate
and underlying
drivers (3)
Evaluating trade-offs/synergies of
integrating carbon mgmt in
key urban issues (4)
Studying opportunities for
re-orienting institutions and
incentive systems
(5)
Urban and Regional Carbon Management (URCM) Place-based and policy-relevant carbon management research agenda
Other activities in 2006/2007 Theme 3 Lead by Dhakal
Social Networks & Urban/Regional Carbon Management
1. Power to Change & Power to Resist2. Missing or Weak Clusters in Policy- Making or Implementation3. Shared Values for Building Consensus4. Creating Knowledge-Sharing Action Clusters5. Knitting Networks for Action6. Stakeholder Networks, Worldview Commitment to Decarbonized Future 7. Time & Place Stamps in Network Data
8. Computational Laboratories
Theme 3 Lead by Canan
Lessons from Implementing the Montreal Protocol for URCM
• Technology & Economic Assessment Panel
• Global Network of Industry, Government, Academia, NGOs
• Fostered Collaboration• Can-Do Teams• Leadership• Linked Co-Benefits
Theme 3 Lead by Canan
Carbon Sequestration and Policy
Theme 3
• Science bases for carbon accounting rules in the Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector for international negotiations. Including:
– Deforestation Avoidance.– Factoring out direct from indirect
human-induced influences on C sources and sinks.
• One workshop every year associated with COP or SBSTA meetings.
• Special Issue in Environmental Policy and Climate (in preparation).
• Deforestation Avoidance (Policy Briefing, in preparation)
NIES
Lead by Schlamadinger, Yamagata, Canadell
GCP Wide: Program Developments
PublicationsRussian
June 2005[Exe.Sum.Only]
In press20042003
English
Oct. 2003
Chinese
Nov. 2004
20042005
Japanese
March 2006
Project Wide
Policy Briefing on Carbon (in preparation)
To be published by the UNFCCC CoP 12 in Nairobi, November 2006
Exam
ple
of P
olicy
Brie
fing
only
Project Wide
SSC Rotation
Project Wide
Rotate Off:• Mike Apps, Canada• Mingkui Cao, China• Bob Dickinson, USA• Chris Sabine, USA• Riccardo Valentini, Italy• Oran Young, USA
Nominations:• Yi Qe, China• Antonio Nobre, Brazil• Guy Midgley, South Africa• Thomas Johansson, Sweden• Pierre Friedlingstein, France
Invited:• Scot Doney, USA