Highlights of the New IPCC Report · · 2013-11-212 Observation Understanding Future . Warming in...
Transcript of Highlights of the New IPCC Report · · 2013-11-212 Observation Understanding Future . Warming in...
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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
Highlights of the New IPCC Report Gian-Kasper Plattner
Director of Science, IPCC WGI TSU
259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI Co-Chairs & TSU Team
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2
Observation
Understanding
Future
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Warming in the climate system is unequivocal
Human influence on the climate system is clear
Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of
greenhouse gas emissions
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Observation What has changed?
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Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).
Fig. SPM.1a
Ano
mal
y (°
C) r
elat
ive
to 1
961-
1990
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Fig. SPM.3
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Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, [...]
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Understanding Why has it changed?
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Global mean warming since 1951 (°C)
Solar, Volcanic
Aerosols
CO2, CH4, N2O
Anthropogenic
Internal Variability
Observed
Fig. TS.10
The observed warming 1951−2010 is approximately 0.6°C to 0.7°C.
© IP
CC
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Global mean warming since 1951 (°C)
Solar, Volcanic
Aerosols
CO2, CH4, N2O
Anthropogenic
Internal Variability
Observed
Fig. TS.10
© IP
CC
201
3
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.
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Global mean warming since 1951 (°C)
Solar, Volcanic
Aerosols
CO2, CH4, N2O
Anthropogenic
Internal Variability
Observed
Fig. TS.10
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.
© IP
CC
201
3
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Global mean warming since 1951 (°C)
Solar, Volcanic
Aerosols
CO2, CH4, N2O
Anthropogenic
Internal Variability
Observed
Fig. TS.10
Human influence on the climate system is clear.
© IP
CC
201
3
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Future How will it change?
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Fig. SPM.7a
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to
1850−1900 for all scenarios except RCP2.6.
Global mean surface temperature change from 1986-2005
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Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century and virtually certain beyond 2100
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Fig. SPM.9
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RCP2.6 (2081-2100), likely range: 26 to 55 cm RCP8.5 (2081-2100), likely range: 45 to 82 cm
Fig. SPM.9
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Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.
Fig. SPM.10
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Fig. SPM.10
Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
© IP
CC
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The four Elements of the Fifth WGI Assessment Report
14 Chapters
Atlas: Regional Projections
1,140,000 Words, ca. 2000 Pages 1250 Figures und Diagrams
Timeseries und Maps for 35 Regions of the World, 2 Mio G Bytes
Summary for Policymakers
Technical Summary 55'000 Words, ca. 90 Pages
14'000 Words, 22 Pages, 10 Figures
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Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006)
The Elements of the Technical Summary
v Summary of the 14 Chapters Observations – Drivers – Understanding – Projections – Key Uncertainties
v Technical Boxes e.g., RCP Scenarios, Last 15 years, Climate- (Geo-) engineering
v Thematic Focus Elements e.g., Water Cycle Change, Irreversibility and Abrupt Change, Climate Sensitivity, Climate Targets, Climate Extremes
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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
www.climatechange2013.org Further Information