Higher Resolution Operational Models
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Transcript of Higher Resolution Operational Models
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Higher Resolution Operational Models
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Operational Mesoscale Model History
• Early: LFM, NGM (history)
• Eta (mainly history)
• MM5: Still used by some, but phasing out
• NMM- Main NWS mesoscale model. Sometimes called WRF-NMM
• WRF-ARW: Heavily used by research and some operational communities.
• The NWS calls their mesoscale run NAM: North American Mesoscale . Now NMM
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Eta Model
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Eta CoordinateAnd Step Mountains
MSL
ground
= 1
Ptop = 0
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Horizontal resolution of 12 km
12-km terrain
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Drawbacks of the Eta Coordinate
• The failure to generate downslope wind storms in regions of complex terrain
• Weak boundary layer winds over elevated terrain when compared to observations
• The displacement of precipitation maxima too far toward the bottom of steeply sloping terrain as opposed to the observed location near the top half of the terrain slope
• The reduction in the number of vertical layers used to define the model atmosphere above elevated topography particularly within the boundary layer
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WRF and NMM
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Why WRF?• An attempt to create a national mesoscale prediction
system to be used by both operational and research communities.
• A new, state-of-the-art model that has good conservation characteristics (e.g., conservation of mass) and good numerics (so not too much numerical diffusion)
• A model that could parallelize well on many processors and easy to modify.
• Plug-compatible physics to foster improvements in model physics.
• Designed for grid spacings of 1-10 km
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WRF Modeling System
Obs Data,Analyses
Post Processors,Verification
WRF Software Infrastructure
Dynamic Cores
Mass Core
NMM Core…
Standard Physics Interface
Physics Packages
StaticInitialization
3DVAR DataAssimilation
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Two WRF Cores• ARW (Advanced Research WRF) • developed at NCAR• Non-hydrostatic Numerical Model (NMM) Core developed at
NCEP• Both work under the WRF IO Infrastructure
NMM ARW
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The NCAR ARW Core Model:(See: www.wrf-model.org)
Terrain following vertical coordinate two-way nesting, any ratio Conserves mass, entropy and scalars using up to
6th order spatial differencing equ for fluxes. Very good numerics, less implicit smoothing in numerics.
NCAR physics package (converted from MM5 and Eta), NOAH unified land-surface model, NCEP physics adapted too
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The NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model: NMM (Janjic et al. 2001), NWS
WRF
Hybrid sigmapressure vertical coord. 3:1 nesting ratio Conserves kinetic energy, enstrophy and
momentum using 2nd order differencing equation Modified Eta physics, Noah unified land-surface
model, NCAR physics adapted too
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•The National Weather Service dropped Eta in 2006 as the NAM (North American Mesoscale) run and replaced it with WRF NMM.
•The Air Force uses WRF ARW.
•Most universities use WRF ARW
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NWS NMM—The NAM RUN• Run every six hours over N. American and adjacent
ocean
• Run to 84 hours at 12-km grid spacing.
• Uses the Grid-Point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system (3DVAR)
• Start with GDAS (GFS analysis) as initial first guess at t-12 hour (the start of the analysis cycle)
• Runs an intermittent data assimilation cycle every three hours until the initialization time.
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October 2011 Update: NMMB
• One-way nested forecasts computed concurrently with the 12-km NMM-B parent run for
– CONUS (4 km to 60 hours)
– Alaska (6 km to 60 hours)
– Hawaii (3 km to 60 hours)
– Puerto Rico (3 km to 60 hours)
– For fire weather, moveable 1.33-km CONUS and 1.5-km Alaska nests are also run concurrently (to 36 hours).
• A change in horizontal grid from Arakawa-E to Arakawa-B grid, which speeds up computations without degrading the forecast
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September 2011 NAM Upgrade
Current NAM• WRF-NMM (E-grid)• 4/Day = 6 hr update• Forecasts to 84 hours• 12 km horizontal grid
spacing
New NAM• NEMS based NMMB• B-grid replaces E-grid• Parent remains 12 km to 84 hr• Four Fixed Nests Run to 60 hr
– 4 km CONUS nest– 6 km Alaska nest– 3 km HI & PR nests
• Single placeable 1.33km or 1.5 km Single placeable 1.33km or 1.5 km FireWeather/IMET/DHS run to 36hrFireWeather/IMET/DHS run to 36hr
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NMMB 4-km Conus
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NMM• Was generally inferior to GFS
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Looks like it has improved…
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