High Yield Investments and best short term investments for 2014

Princeton Research Market Strategies Newsletter P a g e 1

February 24, 2014

High Return Investments

Market Strategies Newsletter Sample Issue

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Covering High Return Balanced Investing Strategies To Make Money In Up Or Down Markets

A Publication of Princeton Research, Inc. (www.PrincetonResearch.com)

Contributing Staff: Michael King, Charles Moskowitz

Market Strategies High Return Investments

$10,000 Trading Account

Traders Comments There are three open positions: GRPN March 11 Calls LUV March 22 Calls PM March 80 Calls Funds in Use $ 1,390

In 2013 YTD gains were $28,479 Over 284% Returns

A $10,000 Portfolio would be worth $38,479 The last 3 years our gains have gotten progressively greater year over year.

284% Returns for $28,400 Profits In 2013 171% Returns for $17,100 Profits In 2012

77% Returns for $7,700 Profits In 2011 (only 33 weeks)

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This week we had a gain of $450 lowering our YTD loss to $1,579. We continue to test the highs of 12/31/13 of 1848.36 and 1,848.38 on January 15th of this year. As I mentioned last week, the move off 1,742 to current levels can have a normal and expectable pullback, but as yet we continue to be supported well above the 1,800 breakout and support near 1,820. The economic numbers have been lackluster at best with some downright disappointing. The market has shrugged off the bad ones including several earnings misses. While we got hurt on GRPN (traded up to $12.10 +$2.00 after reporting), the conference call gave disappointing guidance, I sent out a text to ignore the 50% Down rule since we would only receive $40.00 in proceeds. I don't like to make these type of exceptions but in a strong market these gaps down (30% lower open) we generally see some bounce. I will text the sell order when appropriate. The metals markets are showing some very impressive action. A look at the GLD and the SLV ETFs on a weekly basis show good bottoming formations. The SLV has a test of the June/July lows without making a new low. I am looking for a place to use the AGQ ( 3XSilver ETF ), which gapped up on the weekly chart. We have been quite successful trading silver related options in the past. Remember that if things are getting better for the economy we will have some healthy inflation. We have a position in the $100,000 account in HL as well as the GSG (Goldman commodity index). Since we cannot trade either in the $10,000 Account I will look for the acceleration of a move to participate. … CAM

For Free High Return Investments Trade Alerts CLICK HERE

Market Strategies High Return Investments $10,000 Trading Account

Trade Table

DATE TRADES PRICE COST PROCEEDS RESULTS

02/20 This Information Is For Members Only

For Free Trade Alerts CLICK HERE

1.24 496

02/19 1.54 924 270 Gain

02/18 0.35 350

02/18 0.68 544

02/18 1.61 644 180 Gain

02/14 1.16 464

02/14 1.09 654

Remember, these trades are based on your participation in the Subscriber Members Only




TEXTING SERVICE TO RECEIVE ALL UPDATES. Previous closed out trades not listed here may be seen in previous market letters in the VIP Subscribers Members Area. Options Trading Strategies Notes: In Texting we have a limited amount of words. In the interest of brevity: we use 8=August , 9=September . The Quantity and Strike Price for each trade is specific. We may trade weekly options and they are noted: SPY 1/25 147 for SPY Jan 25th 147 calls or puts.






Market Strategies High Return Investments

MARKET LABORATORY WEEKLY CHANGES FOR MARKET INDICATORS

Dow 16,103.30

-51.09 -0.32%

Nasdaq 4263.41 +19.38

+0.46%

S&P 500 1836.25

-2.38 -0.13%

Transportation 7308.60

+1.91 +0.03%

Russell 2000 1164.63 +15.42

+1.34%

Nasdaq 100 3662.60

-1.27 -0.03%

Gold (spot) 1323.90

+4.90 +0.4%

Silver (Dec ) 2178.2

+36.1 +1.7%

Crude 102.20

+1.90 +1.9%

Heating Oil 303.89 +2.23

+0.7%

Unleaded Gas 3.0030 +0.0308

+1.1%

Natural Gas 6.135 +.921

+17.7%

VIX 14.68 +1.11

+7.6%

Put/Call Ratios S&P 100 96/100’s -7/100’s

Put/Call Ratios CBOE Equity

57/100’s -3/100’s

Bonds 132-03 +06

3.70% Unch

10 Yr Note 125-194 -01

2.73%-0.02%

Copper 329.10 +2.65

+0.8%

CRB Inflation Index

301.58 +8.34

+2.8%

Barron’s Confidence

72.3% +0.04%

S&P100 807.33

-5.24 -0.64%

5 Yr Note 120-20 -007

1.53%+0.01%

Dollar 80.15 +0.12

+0.2%

DJ Utilities 523.47 +3.96

+0.76%

AAII Confidence

Bullish 42.2%

Bearish 22.8%

Neutral 35.0%

M1 Money Supply

M-2 Money Supply




Index +2.0% -4.5% +2.5%

+9.43% February 10th

+6.35% February 10th

M1...all money in hands of the public, Time Deposits Traveler's Checks, Demand Deposits M2.. adds Savings and Money Market Accounts both compared with the previous year.


New Stock Recommendations

Market Strategies High Return Investments $100,000 Trading Portfolio

Each stock is allocated a theoretical $ 5,000 share of the portfolio unless otherwise indicated.

Stock Purchase Price

Purchase Date

Stop/Loss Price/Date Sold Profit/(Loss)

This Information

Is For Members Only


59.97 02/19

12.52 02/07

15.37 01/29

10.40 01/28

11.79 01/28

15.37 01/16

10.06 01/10

7.85 12/30

0.78 12/30

16.22 12/23

32.64 12/23

4.31 12/23

4.08 8/12

6.56 7/11

12.10 5/23

4.10 3/04 2.64sco

538 11/08/12




636 10/9/12

0.22 10/22/12 .12 sco

Recommendations will be both listed in this letter and texted to members. Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the Subscriber Members Area. For those of you who do not buy puts to protect your portfolio, there are many ETF's that are the inverse of the DOW. The symbols are DOG, DXD, SDS,TZA and RWM, which go up when the DOW, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 go down and down when they go up. The DZZ goes up double when gold goes down.

Market Strategies $100,000 Trading Portfolio

Recommendations And Overall Comments Last week we gained $900 bringing our total loss for the year to $ 4,777. The SPXU’s ( a negative ETF ) were bought for balance. For the full year 2013 we had realized gains of $ 53,556. We have open position losses of about $ 5,506 most of which are held over from last year. We also have not counted dividends received on stocks like Apple, Nordic American ( NAT ) and JP Morgan. We have three long options positions:

GRPN March 11 Calls; LUV March 22 Calls; PM March 80 Calls The Stock table has the following 20 positions:

AA(2), AAPL (2), ACI, BAC B Warrants, DSX, GRPN, GSG, HL,

INSM, KEG, NBG (2), OSIR, REPR, RPTP, SPXU, TEXQY, WLT The options call for a $ 2,500 investment unless otherwise stated; each stock position requires $5,000 unless specifically stated.

We are basing money management on a hypothetical $ 100,000 and are using $ 2,780 in three options positions and

$ 83,580 in 20 stock positions totaling $ 86,380 with

$ 13,640 in cash. These figures are approximate. We do not count commission costs and there may be errors.


Executions that have occurred at or near the open or close of trading sometimes vary from our actual numbers. For example, when something opens down and it is through our price, we take the next trade whether it is an uptick or continues lower. This sometimes results in a 50% trade that is slightly above or below the exact number.

Previous Week’s Recommendations and Rules for the Market Strategies

$100,000 Portfolio Trading Account

All options count for about $ 2,500.00 for model portfolio calculations unless otherwise stated

When the option has doubled sell half the position

Stop Loss protection is either half or offered with each trade

The cost of the option is the asking price (or the price between the bid and ask, whichever is more realistic)

The options will be followed until closed out.

Option Symbols are stock symbol with expiration month and strike price

Option Trades Date Sold Date Profit/(Loss)

This Information

Is For Members Only


Calls 1.24

02/20/14

Calls 0.35

02/18/14

Calls 0.68

02/18/14

Calls 1.09

02/14/14 1.54 02/19/14 $ 540

Calls 1.16

02/14/14 1.61 02/18/14 $ 360

Note: Previous closed out stock and option positions can be found in past Market Strategies Newsletter issues available in the VIP Subscribers Members Area.





This Weeks' Market Strategies Economic Numbers and Media Data

MONDAY Magnum Hunter ( MHR ) reports earnings before the open Expecting a loss of 20 cents vs a nickel profit.

TUESDAY 09:00 hrs Case-Shiller 20-city Index Dec ( 13.6% s 13.7% ) 09:00 hrs FHFA Housing Price Index Dec ( NA vs 0.1% ) Consumer Confidence Feb ( 80.8 vs 80.7 )

WEDNESDAY Lowe’s ( 0.31 vs 0.26 ) CHK ( .39 vs .26) DLTR ( 1.06 vs 1.01) 07:00 hrs MBA Mortgage Index 02/22 ( NA vs -4.1% ) 10:00 hrs New Home Sales Jan ( 400K vs 414K ) 10:30 hrs Crude Inventories 02/22 ( NA vs +0.973 Mln bbls ) BIDU ( 1.36 vs 1.28 ) JCP -0.85 vs -1.95 RIG ( 0.75 vs 0.91 )

THURSDAY Best Buy BBY (1.01 vs 1.64) Kohls KSS ( 1.55 vs 1.66 ) NuSkin NUS 1.97 vs 0.97 SHLD ( - 1.60 vs 1.12 ) 08:30 hrs Initial Claims 02/22 ( 335K vs 336K ) Continuing Claims 02/15 ( 2975K vs 2981K 08:30 hrs Durable Goods Jan ( -1.1% vs -4.2% ) Durable Goods Ex-Transportation ( -0.3% vs -1.3% ) 10:30 hrs Natural Gas Inventories 02/22 ( NA vs -250bcf ) DECK ( 3.78 vs 2.77 ) BAGL ( 0.35 vs 0.33 )

FRIDAY 08:30 hrs GDP – 2nd estimate 4th Qtr ( 2.6% vs 3.2% ) Implicit Price Deflator ( 1.3% vs Same )







Market Strategies Economic Data

The housing market is under-performing. The annualized rate of 4.62 million units existing home sales which declined 5.1% in January is now the lowest since July 2012 and well below the highs of last summer and the 5.2 million unit years at the turn of the century. Existing Home Sales have now been down five of the past six months. The main problem is lack of credit and new rules improperly implemented during the past financial crisis requiring income tax returns and an appropriate amount of income required to qualify. Sales were down sharply in the West where weather is not a factor. This year is surprisingly off to a terrible start even with the huge amount of money in circulation that seems untouchable by prospective home buyers. Next week could be challenging with Home Price Data as well as sales of newly built homes plus earnings from Home Depot Tuesday before the open and Lowes Wednesday before the open. That means each day there will be negative news on the housing sector. Regardless of the poor current fundamentals, last week the Homebuilding stocks held well. The XHB Homebuilder’s ETF looks promising in the light of such deleterious numbers.

Market Strategies Trading Fundamentals Equities finished the week with selling after flirting with all-time highs for the third time in a month. The Dow was down 50 points and the S&P 500 was off 2.38. Nasdaq was ahead by 19 points after having risen to its highest level since the year 2000 led by Under Armour ( UA: $ 112.68 ) up $ 30 since January 27th. There were six winners out of the ten Dow Industrial Groups. Health Care rose most although just a modest 1.25%. Utilities continued their torrid strength rising 0.68%, but up 5.2% in the Month of February and up nine of the last ten days. Oil and Gas shares rose 0.44%; Basic Materials 0.24%; Telecommunications 0.17% and Consumer Services 0.14% rounding out the winners. There four losing groups all down small. Industrials fell 0.02%; Consumer Goods 0.07%; Technology 0.21% and Financials 0.70%.

09:45 hrs Chicago PMI Feb ( 56.0 vs 59.6 ) 09:55 hrs Michigan Sentiment Feb Final ( 81.5 vs 81.2 ) 10:00 hrs Pending Home Sales Jan ( 0.8% vs -8.7% )



Compass Minerals International ( NYSE: CMP $ 85.80 ) sells salt that municipalities have bought to spread on icy roads. They had a great winter as the stock is up 7% while the S&P is relatively flat. The table below shows the propensity for the market to rally into Spring.

Market Strategies Technical Information Support Levels S&P 500 1818 Resistance S&P 500 1853 Support Levels DOW 16,080 Resistance DOW 16,440 Support Levels QQQ 86.86 Resistance QQQ 90.70 Support Levels NASDAQ 4118 Resistance NASDAQ 4297

Market Strategies Cycles

Xinergy ( XRG.TO ) appears to be a low cost opportunity with a big upside potential. Current inventory levels are not sustainable to deliver required tons needed for current coal generation in the US without having a major price spike as witnessed by past cycles. Current production can’t be increased like in the past due to burdensome US environmental and permitting policy that has caused many mines to be idled or shut for good. The projected price spike is expected to have longer legs due to the lack of incremental production.


Stockpiles fell 7.78 mm tons in Dec to 147.97 mm tons, 2.03 mm tons well below every estimate. Consumption was up 5.55% YoY. Favorable weather and supply disruptions caused us to lower our forecast for end of Feb stockpiles to 129.97 mm tons. The accelerating stockpile decline should push utilities into the spot market for coal as inventories fall below targeted levels, though some expect the wave of utility purchases will come this spring. Additional commentary on both inventories and generation is below.

EIA Utility Inventories for December 2013

mm tons

Seq Chg YOY Chg Seq Chg (mmt)

YoY Chg (mmt)

Bituminous 72.96 (2.5%) (15.6%) (1.90) (13.47)

Sub-bituminous

70.00 (7.5%) (25.4%) (5.64) (23.84)

Lignite 5.01 (4.6%) 3.5% (0.24) 0.17

Total 147.97 (5.0%) (20.1%) (7.78) (37.14)

Source: EIA

Stockpile Correction Accelerates: After a bigger than forecast drawdown in Dec, and more aggressive declines forecasted for Jan and Feb, we are on pace to see stockpiles fall approx. 26 mm tons over Dec – Feb, the second largest winter decline in the past 10-years and putting stockpiles to approx. 130 mm tons at the end of February. We think this is towards the low end of the range at which utilities will reenter the market for tons.

Will Utilities Wait Until Spring? Despite rumblings of spot activity, demand for spot coal has been slower than some have expected, particularly since utilities went into the year leaving a larger percentage of their forecasted burn open for the spot market. We’ve heard some speculation that buyers will wait until peak winter burn ends to reevaluate their position, suggesting more robust buying activity. Consumption: A strong 77.28 mm tons, up 5.55% YoY. Actual burn came in just shy of our forecast of 78.5 mm, as higher quality coal was consumed.


Implied Deliveries: Producers continue to show discipline, and deliveries of 69.50 were the weakest for the month of Dec since 2000. Producer discipline and weather related transportation disruptions, are to blame.

Jan/Drawdown of 12 mm: Our January forecast calls for an aggressive drawdown of 12 mm tons, sending stockpiles to 135.97 mm tons (versus the 10-year average drawdown of just 4.94 mm tons). Yes, we know this is huge, but such a big drawdown is not unprecedented (the drawdown in Jan 2010 was 11.38 mm). We experienced significantly higher natgas prices and record cold temps. Not only does this bolster coal demand, but disrupts mining, rail delivery, barge delivery, and coal unloading (coal freezing in rail cars). We think the aggressive drawdown is merited, though nuclear capacity factor of 97% in Jan (vs average of 94% normally) could buffer the upside from, strong burn. Feb/Drawdown of 6 mm: We increased our forecast to a drawdown of 6 mm (from 4 mm). Weather was extreme, rail service and mining were disrupted, and natgas moved significantly higher. The forecast sends stockpiles to 129.97 mm tons, the lowest level for the month of February since 2006. March/Flat: We forecast stockpiles will stay flat in March, versus the 10-year average build of 6.06 mm tons. Weather looks favorable going into the month, and the natgas curve is very supportive of coal gen. This forecast may prove to be conservative, particularly after a 3.81 mm ton drawdown last March, but we will see how March unfolds and revise our forecast as needed.

Utility Inventories by Month (mmt)

Year Annual Cons.

JAN Chg (mmt)

FEB Chg (mmt)

MAR Chg (mmt)

APR Chg (mmt)

MAY Chg (mmt)

JUN Chg (mmt)

2002 987.58 139.40

0.90 143.15

3.75 146.44

3.29 153.38

6.93 155.31

1.94 152.13

-3.18


2003 1014.06

134.76

-6.95 130.37

-4.39 133.54

3.16 140.71

7.17 146.10

5.40 144.26

-1.85

2004 1020.52

111.76

-9.81 107.71

-4.05 113.13

5.42 121.10

7.97 123.74

2.64 120.26

-3.48

2005 1041.45

97.51 -9.16 98.06 0.55 105.23

7.17 115.92

10.69 119.90

3.98 115.52

-4.38

2006 1030.56

105.40

4.26 105.99

0.59 112.14

6.16 125.10

12.96 133.84

8.74 135.73

1.89

2007 1046.80

136.38

-4.59 133.47

-2.91 141.39

7.92 149.66

8.27 154.74

5.08 154.81

0.08

2008 1042.34

146.97

-4.25 142.78

-4.19 146.50

3.72 154.03

7.53 159.41

5.38 152.54

-6.87

2009 934.68 156.08

-5.51 160.60

4.53 174.22

13.62 185.79

11.57 195.10

9.31 195.66

0.55

2010 979.68 178.09

-11.38

171.03

-7.07 177.74

6.72 189.26

11.52 191.67

2.41 181.49

-10.18

2011 934.94 164.58

-10.34

161.06

-3.51 166.26

5.19 173.43

7.17 174.09

0.67 165.15

-8.94

2012 825.74 180.09

7.70 186.87

6.78 195.38

8.51 202.27

6.89 203.14

0.87 197.92

-5.21

2013 862.00 (est)

178.75

-6.37 175.33

-3.42 171.52

-3.81 172.65

1.14 176.67

4.02 170.53

-6.14

2014 (est)

876.00 135.97

-12.00

129.97

-6.00 129.97

0.00

10-yr Avg

987.08 145.56

-4.94 144.29

-1.27 150.35

6.06 158.92

8.57 163.23

4.31 158.96

-4.27

10-yr Avg calculated from 2004 - 2013 for Jan - Nov and 2003 - 2012 for Dec

Year Annual Cons.

JUL Chg (mmt)

AUG Chg (mmt)

SEP Chg (mmt)

OCT Chg (mmt)

NOV Chg (mmt)

DEC Chg (mmt)

2002 987.58 142.63

-9.50 137.13

-5.50 135.96

-1.17 140.80

4.84 144.61

3.81 141.71

-2.89

2003 1014.06

134.97

-9.29 126.75

-8.22 124.52

-2.23 127.64

3.13 126.69

-0.95 121.57

-5.12

2004 1020.52

111.63

-8.64 108.06

-3.56 106.21

-1.85 111.15

4.94 113.30

2.15 106.67

-6.63

2005 1041.45

105.63

-9.89 98.88 -6.75 98.19 -0.69 101.22

3.03 106.57

5.36 101.14

-5.44

2006 1030.56

127.89

-7.84 123.88

-4.01 126.87

2.99 134.94

8.07 140.44

5.50 140.96

0.52

2007 1046.80

145.45

-9.36 140.67

-4.78 142.67

2.00 150.08

7.41 154.29

4.22 151.22

-3.07

2008 1042.34

142.57

-9.97 139.35

-3.22 143.90

4.55 155.66

11.76 163.39

7.73 161.59

-1.80


2009 934.68 193.56

-2.09 191.53

-2.03 197.21

5.68 199.48

2.27 203.77

4.29 189.47

-14.30

2010 979.68 169.50

-11.99

159.99

-9.52 163.78

3.79 175.69

11.91 183.39

7.70 174.92

-8.47

2011 934.94 147.30

-17.85

138.53

-8.77 143.71

5.18 156.20

12.49 167.75

11.56 172.39

4.63

2012 825.74 183.96

-13.97

178.54

-5.42 182.02

3.48 186.40

4.38 188.29

1.90 185.12

-3.18

2013 862.00 (est)

159.54

-11.00

154.12

-5.42 152.19

-1.93 153.35

1.17 155.75

2.40 147.97

-7.78

2014 (est)

876.00 131.00

10yr Avg*

987.08 148.70

-10.26

143.35

-5.35 145.67

2.32 152.41

6.74 157.69

5.28 153.14

-4.55

Source: EIA and DTC estimates

Quality Breakdown: Bituminous coal accounts for a larger percentage of overall stockpiles in Dec ‘13 than Dec ’12.

Coal Burn/Days of Supply: Coal burn in December was 77.28 mm tons (up 17.27% seq and 5.55% YoY). December inventories represent 64 days of supply (vs 66 days seq and 81 days YoY).


Stockpile by Coal Type and Region: Bituminous stockpiles fell in all regions on a seq basis, with the biggest loss being in the Northeast, down 28.06%. On a days-of-burn basis, bituminous coal in the Northeast dropped 35.48% representing 40 days of supply and its sub bit coal dropped 50.00% representing only 19 days of supply.

Bituminous Coal Inventory By Region

Stocks (K tons) Days of Burn

Dec-13 Seq Chg

YoY Chg

Dec-13 Seq Chg

YoY Chg

Northeast 5,224 -28.06%

-33.42% 40 -35.48%

-27.27%

South 41,646 -3.70% -18.49% 71 -5.33% -21.98%

Midwest 14,211 -5.43% -15.30% 54 -11.48%

-15.63%

West 5,637 -6.75% -23.41% 94 -3.09% -27.69%

Subbituminous Coal Inventory By Region

Stocks (K tons) Days of Burn

Dec-13 Seq Chg

YoY Chg

Dec-13 Seq Chg

YoY Chg

Northeast 282 -17.06%

-48.63% 19 -50.00%

-38.71%

South 3,790 -34.69%

-44.06% 34 -38.18%

-47.69%

Midwest 30,973 - -33.17% 45 - -35.71%


15.22% 15.09%

West 25,233 -6.79% -25.05% 58 -6.45% -29.27%

EIA Data for December Generation: December was a solid month for coal, which accounted for 40.4% of total gen in the month compared to 39.1% for the year. Cold weather combined with natgas prices at $4.24/mmBtu, put coal (including Capp) in the money at many units. Total HDDs were up 20% YoY at 824 and natgas prices were up $0.90/mmBtu YoY. Nuclear units ran hard at 94% for Dec compared to Nov at 89%. Only 14 units had an outage of some sort compared to 24 in Nov.

EIA Generation Data

Total Generation YoY Change Seq Change

Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 352.4 5.30% 12.30%

Jan - Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 4,058.2 0.26% n/a

2012 Total (trillion KWh) 4.048 -1.28% n/a

Total Gen in Dec was up 5.30% YoY and 12.30% seq (while Nov was up 2.54% YoY and down 0.30% seq). In the demand breakdowns, we noted that Industrial demand was down 3.1% YTD in Dec (vs. down 3.2% YTD in Nov); Commercial demand was flat in Dec (vs. up 0.5% YTD in Nov); Residential demand was up 1.2% YTD in Dec (vs. flat in Nov). YTD through Dec, total gen is up 0.26% YoY vs being down 0.20% in Nov. DTC Read: Cold weather and gains in industrial production have pushed total gen up in Dec. HDD in Dec at 824 were 20% higher than last year and 17% higher than the average of the last two years. Industrial capacity is up 2.9% YoY.

Coal Generation YoY Change Seq Change

Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 142.3 6.13% 17.19%

Jan - Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 1,586.0 4.75% n/a

2012 Total (trillion KWh) 1.514 -12.66% n/a

The 6.13% YoY gain in coal generation compared to the 5.30% YoY gain in total gen means that coal's share of the generation mix was greater in Dec 13 vs Dec 12. DTC Read: Coal generated 40.4% of electricity in Dec and 39.1% of 2013 total generation. Dec natgas prices were $4.24/mmBtu, up $0.90/mmBtu YoY, pushing more coal in the money for generation. Even units scheduled for retirement ran hard as evidenced by AEP's statement that 7150 MWs of soon-to-retire coal units ran at 89% capacity factor.

Utility Coal Consumption YoY Change Seq Change

Dec 2013 (million tons) 77.3 5.55% 17.27%

Jan - Dec 2013 (million tons) 860.8 4.25% n/a

2012 Total (billion tons) 0.826 -11.68% n/a

The 17.27% seq increase in coal consumption vs the 17.19% increase in coal generation means that the coal burned in Dec was lower in Btu content than in Nov. Total utility coal consumption in Dec was 77.3 mm tons, up 5.55% from Dec 2012. YTD consumption of 860.8 mm tons was up 4.25% YoY (compared to up 4.12% in Nov). DTC Read: YoY change in utility coal consumption was lower than YoY change in coal generation indicating that proportionally more high heat content coals are being consumed YoY. With natgas prices in Dec at $4.24/mmBtu, ILB, Napp, and even some Capp were dispatching more often.

Hydro Generation YoY Change Seq Change


Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 21.3 -7.23% 20.25%

Jan - Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 269.1 -2.57% n/a

2012 Total (billion KWh) 276.2 -13.50% n/a

Dec hydro gen was down 7.23% YoY and up 20.25% seq (vs. down 5.34% YoY and up 2.46% seq in Nov). Hydro gen is important because it dispatches before both coal and natgas. DTC Read: Drought conditions affect 51.76% of the nation, down from 56.18% in November. The Pacific Northwest is experiencing abnormally dry to severe drought conditions with CA in extreme drought conditions.

Nuclear Generation YoY Change Seq Change

Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 71.3 3.95% 9.73%

Jan - Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 789.0 2.56% n/a

2012 Total (billion KWh) 769.3 -2.64% n/a

Nuclear gen in Dec was up 3.95% YoY and 9.73% seq (vs. up 14.57% YoY and 2.83% seq in Nov). Nuclear gen is important because it dispatches before coal. DTC Read: Nuclear capacity factor rose to 94% from 89% in Nov. The 10-year average for Dec is 93%. Nine nukes had unplanned outages, four were out for refueling and one had scheduled maintenance.

Natgas Generation YoY Change Seq Change

Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 91.8 9.27% 10.43%

Jan - Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 1,113.7 -9.15% n/a

2012 Total (billion KWh) 1,225.9 20.93% n/a

Natgas generation is up 9.27% YoY (vs. up 3.67% last month) and up 10.43% seq (vs down 5.61% in Nov). YTD natgas gen is down 9.15% vs being down 10.51% last month. DTC Read: Natgas prices jumped 16.5% from Nov and are up 26.9% YoY. Natgas gen in 2013 dropped 9.15% YoY.

Other Generation (Solar, wind, biomass & geothermal) YoY Change Seq Change

Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 25.7 2.64% -3.18%

Jan - Dec 2013 (billion KWh) 300.4 14.54% n/a

2012 Total (billion KWh) 262.3 7.72% n/a

Solar, wind and other non-oil generation is highly volatile, mostly because it is dependent on the wind blowing or the sun shining. It is a small but important component because it dispatches before coal and natgas. Dec generation is up 2.64% YoY and down 3.18% seq (vs up 22.51% YoY and 7.44% in Nov).

Source: EIA, DTC Commentary









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High Yield Investments and best short term investments for 2014

Economy & Finance

Transcript of High Yield Investments and best short term investments for 2014