LAST UPDATED: June 18, 2021Phoebe Fleming, Director of Research

HIGH FREQUENCY INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Introduction• This special edition of the Orlando Market Overview analyzes select, high-frequency, labor market and economic indicators. Originally published to signal worsening or bettering employment outcomes for the region, this overview now serves to provide insight into the pace of Orlando’s economic recovery or potentially alert readers to new contractions.

orlando.org/covid19

• View the indicators and key takeaways on the following slides. More in-depth trend analysis is included after the key takeaways. Topics include consumer spending, business revenue, and how those outcomes are influenced by the size of the labor force, industry employment, the unemployment rate, and number of airport passengers.

• Where the data is available, indicators are tracked by their short-term change, signaling current momentum, and their change against a pre-pandemic baseline, highlighting COVID-19’s net impact.

• All data are for the Orlando Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unless otherwise noted. The Orlando MSA is made up of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole County, the orange counties in the map to the right.

orlando.org/covid19

High Frequency Indicators to Watch – Orlando MSA

Consumer Spending

Weekly

Small Business Revenue

Monthly

Labor Force

Monthly

+18.6%+3.0 pp MoM

+18.6% Jan 2020

-26.6%+0.5% MoM

-26.6% Feb 2020

June 02May 30

1,306,788+1.6% MoM (+20,000)

-5.3% Feb 2020

May

MoM = Month-over-month WoW = Week-over-week

Feb or Jan 2020 – Percent change against monthly baselineSource: US Dept of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass

1. 2. 3. Change in consumer spending for

Florida, compared to a January 2020 baseline.

Change in net business revenue for Florida small businesses, indexed to

January 2020 and seasonally adjusted.

The total number of people who are employed or unemployed and actively looking for work.

Industry Employment

Monthly

1,200,900+1.1% MoM (+12,600)

-10.7% Feb 2020

May

4. The total number of jobs in the

region, measured by a company’s location and industry.

orlando.org/covid19

High Frequency Indicators to Watch – Orlando MSA

MoM = Month-over-month WoW = Week-over-week

Feb or Jan 2020 – Percent change against monthly baselineSource: Orlando International Airport statistical reports, Brookings Metro Recovery Index

Airport Passengers

Monthly

3.28M4.7% MoM30.6% YoY

April

6. Total passengers at Orlando

International Airport, enplaned and deplaned, including

international and domestic travel.

Unemployment Rate

Monthly

5.4%-0.2 pp MoM

+2.3 pp Feb 2020

May

5. The percentage of people in the labor force who are temporarily

or permanently unemployed.

Key Takeaways• As of May 30, 2021, consumer spending in Florida was 18.6 percent above a pre-pandemic baseline, continuing the country-wide

trend of unleashed spending as economies open and people use their pandemic savings. Locally, consumer spending is above pre-pandemic levels across the entire Orlando MSA and it will likely stay that way moving forward. However, shifts in howconsumers spend persist and gaps in between industries remain high. While retail, grocery, restaurant, and hotel spending areabove pre-pandemic levels, transportation and entertainment and recreation spending have not recovered. All this expenditure, however, is not translating to increased revenues for small businesses. Despite high consumer spending, the average small business in Florida has revenues 26.6% below a January 2020 baseline. Going a level deeper, data shows that businesses located in low-income zip codes are experiencing faster recovery, likely due to stimulus checks and unemployment benefits while businesses in Orlando’s high income zip codes are not.

• The size of the regional labor force improved again in May, as 20,000 more people rejoined the labor force. Orlando’s labor force is currently 5.3% smaller than pre-pandemic levels. This is a welcome sign and sharp turn-around in the previous trajectory of Orlando’s labor force size before the beginning of 2021. This also contributes to the slight rise in unemployment experienced this month. regional unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.6 percent from March to April, up 0.2 percentage points from 5.4 percent (not seasonally adjusted). This is the second month of slight unemployment rate increases for the region, coupled with high job gains. This, seemingly counterintuitive trend, is due to large numbers of people re-entering the labor force.

• Orlando re-gained 12,600 jobs, mainly in leisure and hospitality, education and healthcare. This contributes to the 43 percent of jobs that have returned to the Orlando region since the height of pandemic related job losses in May of 2020. Revised labor force models from the Bureau of Labor Statics show that while the region has regained 39,000 jobs since January, no industry is above pre-pandemic levels of employment in Orlando. Construction was the first industry to return to pre-pandemic levels of employmentin the United States.

orlando.org

1) Change in Consumer Spending – Industry

Source: Opportunity Insights, Chetty et. al.https://tracktherecovery.org/

orlando.org

1) Change in Consumer Spending – Counties

Source: Opportunity Insights, Chetty et. al.https://tracktherecovery.org/

+14.8%LakeLine not shown

orlando.org

2) Change in Small Business Revenue

Source: Opportunity Insights, Chetty et. al.https://tracktherecovery.org/

orlando.org

2) Change in Small Business Revenue - Counties

Source: Opportunity Insights, Chetty et. al.https://tracktherecovery.org/

-34.4%LakeLine not shown

-5.3%

-0.4%

-2.2%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 February March April May

Civilian Labor Force SizePercent Change from Feb. 2020

Orlando MSA Florida USA

orlando.org

3) Labor Force Size

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank

Next Update: Local data released July 16

-

(253.6)

(143.9)

(300.0)

(250.0)

(200.0)

(150.0)

(100.0)

(50.0)

-Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21

Job

Loss

or G

ain

(Tho

usan

ds)

Net Job Change from Feb. 2020Orlando MSA

orlando.org

4) Industry Employment – Net Change

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: Local data released July 16

0

-100

100 100500

1,900

100

-1,200

3,400

2,000

4,700

600

-1,300-2,000

-1,000

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One Month Change in EmploymentOrlando MSA, April 2021 - May 2021 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

orlando.org/covid19

4) Industry Employment – Month-to-Month

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: Local data released July 16

-1.1%

-5.0%-3.6% -4.1%

-5.2%

-1.0%

-4.0%-5.6%

-9.0%

-6.9%

-10.7%-8.7%

-32.4%

-4.4%

-7.1%

-4.8%-3.5% -3.8%

1.3%

-0.5%-1.9%

-5.2%

-2.4%-4.4%

-2.0%

-14.0%

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Education andHealth Services

Information TotalGovernment

WholesaleTrade

Manufacturing Construction FinancialActivities

Retail Trade Other Services Transportation,Warehousing,and Utilities

TotalNonagricultural

Employment

Professionaland Business

Services

Leisure andHospitality

Percent of Jobs Lost (-) or Gained (+) in Each Industry Feb. 2020 - May 2021

Orlando USA

orlando.org/covid19

4) Industry Employment – National Context

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Orlando performing worse than national average

Orlando performing better than national

average

Next Update: Local data released July 16

5.65.7

5.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb March April

Rat

e

Unemployment Rate, NSADec. 2019 - 2021

Orlando MSA USA Florida

orlando.org/covid19

5) Unemployment Rate

Source: BLS, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: Local data released July 16

5.5

5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb March April May

Rat

e

Unemployment Rate, NSADec. 2019-2021

Orlando MSA USA Florida

5.4

4.55.15.56.6

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb March April May

Rat

e

Unemployment Rate, NSA2019-2021

Seminole County Lake County Orange County Osceola County

orlando.org/covid19

5) Unemployment Rate - Counties

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Next Update: Local data released July 16

3,651 4,037 3,803 3,803

2,205

152 367 875

1,174 1,121 1,152 1,558 1,765 2,025 1,870 1,951

3,058 3,191

538

597 573 531

303

3 2

1 12 14 14

29 51

85 81 38

71 85

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000Thousands

Total PassengersOrlando International Airport

Domestic International

orlando.org

6) Total Passengers, Orlando International Airport

Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority, Monthly Passenger Statistics Report