HH6 Counter-hydro-hegemony in the Nile Basin
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Transcript of HH6 Counter-hydro-hegemony in the Nile Basin
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Counter-hydro-hegemony in the Nile Basin: tipping the balance of power in favour of
upstream riparian states
Presentation to HH6 WorkshopLondon, 12 January 2013
Ana Elisa Cascão, SIWI
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Nile Basin: Geopolitical changes since HH5
• New map
• New riparian (South Sudan)
• Political volte-face
• Redefinition of regional political & economic landscape
• New infrastructure projects
• Change of balance of power
• New cooperation paradigms?
Stat
e of
the
Nile
Riv
er B
asin
201
2 (N
BI)
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Changes in the Balance of Power
PAST
PRESENT
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Bargaining and Ideational Power:what has changed?
• Negotiations capacity• Power to set the
agenda/timing• Collective bargaining power
• New geopolitical actors and settings
• New ’joker’ cards (e.g. GRD)• New paradigm of
cooperation
’Less’ power asymmetries
Counter-hegemonic actions
Challenges to status quo
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Multilateral Cooperation: the good and the evil
Multilateral Cooperation
Basin-wide development of transboundary
water resources
Basin-wide legal and institutional framework?
New paradigms for development of water resources?
Agenda-setting: who calls the shots?
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Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA): A new hydropolitical set-up on the Nile?
1997-2007: Multilateral negotiations
2007-2010: Interlude
2010: Signature of the new CFA
> 2013: Ratification by upstream riparians
A not-all inclusive Nile Basin Commission?
Bargaining Power
Ideational Power
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Grand Renaissance Dam: a new paradigm for cooperation?
• Multilateral cooperation has not delivered
• Increasing needs and demands• Ethiopian unilateral move• Trilateral Committee• New paradigm for cooperation?
Bargaining Power
Ideational Power
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Cooperation without donors?
• Who calls the shots?• Cooperation outside the NBI
(although...)• Country-driven• Trilateral talks• Investment-driven• No external funding
Bargaining Power
Ideational Power
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Outcomes of transboundary cooperation
Conflict avoidance
Bargaining deadlock
Ideational status quo
Conflict addressed
Creative bargaining
Ideational change
Multilateral Cooperation
Bilateral/Trilateral Cooperation
Same river...
Same actors...
Different process
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Conclusions
How do we know that soft power is being utilised?
How does it have an impact on water resources management practices and allocation outcome?
How can we assess it as being a form of justice being argued?