Easy Tips for Most Successful PPC Forecasts

Krista WittPaid Media Manager | LiveArea/PFSweb

Forecasting:Giving Up The Fear

Tell The StoryNumber 1:

What’s in a Storysto·ry1

/stôrē/noun

1. an account of imaginary or real people and events told for entertainment. "an adventure story" synonyms: tale, narrative, account, anecdote; More2. an account of past events in someone's life or in the evolution of something. "the story of modern farming"

people events the evolution of something.

What’s in a Story

A story provides meaning by taking a string of events and adding them to their true but unsuspecting sum.

Why Story?We’re still hard wired to learn better if someone’s words have emotion and meaning to them. The use of narrative helps our brains to focus.

How?What makes a SUCCESSFUL forecast….story

Simple – Know Thy Audience

Emotional – Make it relevant to the audience

Truthful – Be upfront about assumptions

Real – Base it off real data

Valid – Show the numbers

How?A US based Beauty Brand was based on finding balance in beauty.

Branded Campaigns

Branded Product

Campaigns

Generic Campaigns

Variables Are KeyNumber 2:

Data SourcesWhen it comes to data, Mass is Energy

The Best – current and past account performance for each and

every metric

Okay – current keyword list, use Adwords keyword volume

forecasts, and know sitewide Revenue metrics.

Can work with – competitive tool to tell you potential keywords

on, and potential keywords competitors are on, adwords keyword

volume forecasts, and industry standard conversion rate data.

Making AssumptionsData is rarely perfect. Assumptions are your safety net.

Assumptions include the things you can and can’t control

We can all have incorrect assumptions and THAT’S OKAY!

Getting everyone onboard with your assumptions in the

beginning is key to getting buy in.

Seasonality Is Your FriendNumber 3:

Use ToolsSeasonality does exist, therefore it should always be part of your forecast.

Use any and every tool and data to determine seasonality for your site.

Exclude known influencers such as viral events, large one time site promotions, etc.

Every MetricEvery metric is impacted by seasonality fluctuations

Every metric should have a seasonality forecast

Fiscal MonthImpression

ModifierCTR

ModifierCPC

ModifierCR

ModifierAOV

ModifierBase MetricsJanuary -35% 0% 0% 0% 0%February -18% 18% -5% 18% 5%March 7% -7% -8% -7% -4%April 10% -10% 10% -10% -5%May -20% 20% -2% 15% 3%June -15% 15% 5% 10% 2%July -10% 10% -14% 10% 2%August 5% -5% 1% -5% -3%September 10% 10% -1% 5% 2%October 10% 10% 4% 10% 4%November 50% 50% 18% 20% 8%December -50% -50% 6% -50% -10%

Every Metric Every component in your seasonality, whether it’s week,

month, or quarter, should have a % change field. But KISS – Keep It Simple Stupid Email me at kwitt@pfsweb.com for this tool

Fiscal Month Dates # of Weeks # of Days Spend Revenue ROAS AOV Orders CR CPC Clicks CTR ImpressionsBase Metrics 56.00$ 4.00% 0.60$ 2.00% 10,800,000 J anuary 1/3 - 2/6 5 35 84,240$ 314,496$ 3.73$ 56.00$ 5,616 4.00% 0.60$ 140,400 2.00% 7,020,000 February 2/7 - 3/5 4 28 77,435$ 377,026$ 4.87$ 58.80$ 6,412 4.72% 0.57$ 135,851 2.36% 5,756,400 March 3/10 - 4/2 4 28 70,891$ 334,962$ 4.73$ 56.45$ 5,934 4.39% 0.52$ 135,185 2.19% 6,159,348 April 4/3 - 5/7 5 35 77,201$ 283,519$ 3.67$ 53.63$ 5,287 3.95% 0.58$ 133,834 1.98% 6,775,283 May 5/8 - 6/4 4 28 72,467$ 322,403$ 4.45$ 55.23$ 5,837 4.54% 0.56$ 128,480 2.37% 5,420,226 J une 6/5 - 7/2 4 28 74,279$ 353,584$ 4.76$ 56.34$ 6,276 5.00% 0.59$ 125,589 2.73% 4,607,192 J uly 7/3 - 8/6 5 35 63,175$ 392,779$ 6.22$ 57.47$ 6,835 5.50% 0.51$ 124,333 3.00% 4,146,473 August 8/7 - 9/3 4 28 63,391$ 361,040$ 5.70$ 55.74$ 6,477 5.22% 0.51$ 124,023 2.85% 4,353,797 September 9/4 - 10/1 4 28 75,872$ 467,874$ 6.17$ 56.86$ 8,229 5.48% 0.51$ 150,067 3.13% 4,789,176 October 10/2 - 11/5 5 35 95,462$ 647,661$ 6.78$ 59.13$ 10,953 6.03% 0.53$ 181,582 3.45% 5,268,094 November 11/6 - 12/3 4 28 253,572$ 1,888,574$ 7.45$ 63.86$ 29,573 7.24% 0.62$ 408,558 5.17% 7,902,141 December 12/4 - 12/31 4 28 67,122$ 212,486$ 3.17$ 57.48$ 3,697 3.62% 0.66$ 102,140 2.59% 3,951,071 TOTAL 1,075,107$ 5,956,404$ 5.54$ 58.90$ 101,126 5.35% 0.57$ 1,890,043 2.86% 66,149,201

Presenting: The Meeting Sandwich

Number 4:

Tasty SandwichLike a Good Story, and a Yummy Sandwich, a Meeting should have a beginning, middle, and end.

Bread = Goals Start and end with stating the goals

Crunchy Stuff = Strategy and Assumptions Meat (or bean patty if you’re a vegetarian) = actual numbers

ABT: Always Be TestingNumber 5:

Follow Up & Realign“When you make an assumption, you are preparing room for error.” – Toba Beta

Check your assumptions Adjust your forecast as new information is available Communicate changes Rinse and repeat

Give Up The FearForecasting’s goal is

To provide a benchmark To provide a tool to measure progress toward To provide a tool to tell the story of our account NOT to hit every number right NOT to be a fortune teller

Questions

Thank you!

Krista WittPaid Media Manager | LiveArea/PFSweb