Water and Climate Change

AQUA 2009Integrated Water Resource Management and Climate

ChangeCali, November 9, 2009

Water and Climate Change

Bridging Gaps

Henk van Schaik

CPWC� Started 2001 after Third Assessment Report of IPCC

� 2001 – 2005: Building awareness on climate variability and change– International events: WWF, WWW, IWA

– Documentation: books and films

– Local dialogues

� Since 2005: Towards operational responses– International events: WWF, WWW, COP, IWA, WASH, Mediterranean– International events: WWF, WWW, COP, IWA, WASH, Mediterranean

– Information and expertise: Expert Pools and clearing houses WCC, Nairobi Work Programme. DFID, EC,

– Network building of practitioners: Connecting Delta Cities

– Adaptation programmes: Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Bangladesh

Coping with climate change:top priority

Climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity. No issue is more fundamental to long-term global prosperity. And no issue is more essential to our survival as a species is more essential to our survival as a species Summit on Climate Change for Heads of States and Governments,

New York, 22 September, 2009

IPCC 2007: By 2020 50 % yield loss in rain fed agric; by 2050 200 million

people displaced because of climate; snow melt affecting one billion

people.

Climate change became a top priority in less than 10 years

C(H)openhagen???

� Commitments to mitigation ……how much and by whom? % of reduction and finance

� Adaptation: vulnerability of LDCs� Adaptation: vulnerability of LDCs

� Finance: polluter pays or from ODA budgets

� Europe agreed on 20 billion/annum from 2020 and 5-7 billion for developing countries on voluntary basis immediately for mitigation and adaptation

COP-15 and Adaptation policies …

COP-15:

� NAPAs regularly to be updated

� Vulnerable areas including:– Least Developed Countries

– Small island Developing States– Small island Developing States

– Countries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods

� Capacity building: Nairobi Work Programme

� Adaptation Fund: 70 % for LDCs, SIDS and countries in Africa, and 30 % for Disasters

Water as medium, water as sector….

Water is the medium……..

WE NEED MORE THAN JUST

LOOKING AT THE PROBLEM

RES8552

Climate Change and Water:

Facts and Forecasts

Climate Change and Water:The IPCC Technical Report

June 2008reviewed scientific articles till end 2005

What is the IPCC?Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Scientific intergovernmental body set up by WMO and UNEP

- governments are members of IPCC

- scientists contribute to IPCC assessments

IPCC does not conduct research: it’s role is to IPCC does not conduct research: it’s role is to assess research

IPCC reports are policy-relevant, but policy-neutral

Emission scenarios Globalisation

A1 Balanced

A1 Fossil

A1 TechnologyB1

Economic Golden Age Sustainable development

Globalisation

A1 Balanced

A1 Fossil

A1 TechnologyB1

Economic Golden Age Sustainable development

Emphasis on sustainability

and equityEmphasis on material wealth

Regionalisation

B2A2 Regional solutions

Cultural diversity

Emphasis on sustainability

and equityEmphasis on material wealth

Regionalisation

B2A2 Regional solutions

Cultural diversity

Future projections of climate change

� Best estimate of low emission scenario (B1) is 1.8 ºC (range 1.1-2.9)

� Best estimate of high emission scenario A1F1 is 4.0 ºC (range 2.4-6.4)

� Hardly any differences between scenarios for the scenarios for the near future

IPCC 2007

Climate change effects on water resources

Growth in population, energy demand, changes in technological and land-sue/cover

Greenhouse gases emissions

Energy-economy models

Carbon cycle and other chemical

Atmospheric GHGs concentrations

Future hydrological projections

Carbon cycle and other chemical models

Climate models

Future climate projections

Hydrological + hydraulic models

� Precipitation will probably – Increase in the high latitudes

– Decrease in most sub-tropical regions

Change in average runoff

A1b emissions scenario, multi-model ensemble mean, change by 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999. White areas denote regions with little agreement

• 80% of future stress frompopulation

& development,

Water Stress Changes

to 2025

Vörösmarty et al. 2000

& development, •Climate change additional!

UNH

IPCC Technical Paper on Water

Figure 5.8: Trends in annual rainfall in (a) South America (1960–2000). An increase is shown by a plus sign, a decrease

by a circle; bold values indicate significance at P ≤ 0.05 (reproduced from Haylock et al. (2006) with permission from

the American Meteorological Society). (b) Central America and northern South America (1961–2003). Large red triangles

indicate positive significant trends, small red triangles indicate positive non-significant trends, large blue triangles indicate

negative significant trends, and small blue triangles indicate negative non-significant trends (reproduced from Aguilar et al.

(2005) with permission from the American Geophysical Union. [WGII Figure 13.1]

Areal extent of Chacaltaya Glacier, Bolivia, from 1940 to 2005. By 2005, the glacier had separated into

three distinct small bodies. The position of the ski hut, which did not exist in 1940, is indicated with a

red cross. The ski lift had a length of about 800 m in 1940 and about 600 m in 1996 (shown by a

continuous line in 1940 and a broken line in all other panels) and was normally installed during the

precipitation season. After 2004, skiing was no longer possible.

Photo credits: Francou and Vincent (2006) and Jordan (1991). [WGII Figure 1.1]

Current trends in precipitation (WGII Table 13.2)

Change shown in % unless otherwise indicated

Period Percentage

Amazonia – northern/southern (Marengo, 2004) 1949–1999 -11 to -17 / -23 to

1949-1999 -11 to – 17/-23 to +18

Bolivian Amazonia (Ronchail et al., 2005) Since 1970 +15

Argentina – central and north-east (Penalba and Vargas, 2004)

1900–2000 +1 SD to +2 SD

Uruguay (Bidegain et al., 2005) 1961-2002 +20

Chile – central (Camilloni, 2005) last 50 years -50

Colombia (Pabón, 2003) 1961–1990 -4 to +6

Table 5.6: Increase in the numbers of people living in

waterstressed watersheds in Latin America (million) based on the

HadCM3 GCM (Arnell, 2004). [WGII Table 13.6]

1995 2025 2055

Scenario and GCM

Without With Without With

A1 22,2 35,7 21,0 54,0 60

A2 22,2 55,9 37-66 149,3 60 - 100

B1 22,2 35,7 22 54,0 74

B2 22,2 47,3 7-77 59,4 62

Conclusions IPCC …

Climate change is unequivocal; it is another driver of change such as population growth and economic development.

IPCC also identifies knowledge gaps:

paucity of information particularly hydrological information

understanding of links between global climate models and local

hydrological models

Knowledge on groundwater resources

Camarón que se duerme, se lo lleva la changada

A New Planning Uncertainty

Joint Egyptian-Dutch Water Conference Towards the new Long Term Strategy for Water in the MediterraneanCairo, Egypt 2 and 3 November 2009Organised by Egypt, Netherlands, CPWC, APP and GWP-Med

Cairo Message to COP-15

Coping with climate change is managing water for life

A strong and fair agreement in Copenhagen at the fifteenth Conference of Parties (COP-15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change is crucial for water resources, water services and for life.

25

Issues

Climate and Water– Development, Water and Climate

– Beyond the water box

– Governance

– Information

– Adaptive Management

– Finance

See Stockholm message

Climate change in the context of water and development …

Population projection Nile countries

Projected population (million)

100

120

140

160

180 Egypt

Ethiopia

Eritrea

Sudan

Uganda

0

20

40

60

80

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Uganda

Congo

Kenya

Tanzania

Burundi

Rwanda

1950

World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

Analysis by Munich ReData:

U.N. Population Division

2015

4000

5000

6000Water Use in km̂3 per year

AgricultureIndustryHouseholdsReservoiresTotal

Meeting growing global water demands

0

1000

2000

3000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Water Use in km̂3 per year

Worldwide Water Use by Region

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

EuropeNorth AmericaAfricaAsiaSouth AmericaAustralia& Pacific

31

0

500

1000

1500

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

120

140

160

180

200

Direct economic losses [mld. US$]

economic losses

(in values of 2006)

insured losses

(in values of 2006)

trend economic losses

trend insured losses

Historic losses from weather disasters 1950-2005

32

© 2007 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re

0

20

40

60

80

100

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

Direct economic losses [mld. US$]

…and realities

Developing countries and countries in transition: – MDGs and poverty alleviation are the priority

– Barely able to cope with present climate variability;

– Improving operations (leakages, payments, water efficiency) a step towards coping with CC

– Need for more storage (No Regret measures)

Climate specific measures in hot spots– Climate information and hydrological information scarce

– Limited professional/sectoral capacity

– Need for technology transfer

– Need for better planning (bankable)

– Needs additional funding and external support

local, country and regional adaptationcategories

1. Best practises and no regret in– Irrigation

– Drinking water

– Water for energy

2. Climate specific measures in “ hot spots” including”– Arid areas

– Low lying coastal delta’s

– Mountainous areas affected by glacier melt

– Small islands

Elements for developing an

adaptation strategy .

Information needs

Policy, legal and institutional framework

Understand the vulnerability

Information needs

Policy, legal and institutional framework

Understand the vulnerability

Convention of the Protection and Use of

Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes

Impact assessment

Vulnerability assessment

Financial arrangements

Evaluate

Development of measures

Impact assessment

Vulnerability assessment

Financial arrangements

Evaluate

Development of measures

h1

Diapositiva 35

h1 hvanschaik, 06/04/2009

Netherlands: Climate proofing concept in water….

“The climate is changing and we should make our country climate proof. The national

government together with science, policy and other stakeholders”

Jan-Peter Balkenende - DutchPrime Minister, november 2005”

Science - Policyinteraction

Assignment

W Advice on protecting the coast and

the entire low lying part of the

Netherlands against the

consequences of climate change

on a time scale of 2100 –2200on a time scale of 2100 –2200

W Wider scope than only safety, multifunctional approach

Committee on Sustainable Coastal Development

� Advice on protecting the coast and the entire low lying part of the Netherlands against the consequences of climate change on a time scale of

38

change on a time scale of 2100 –2200

� Wider scope than only safety, multifunctionalapproach

Opening the

“water box”

Decision-making affecting water

(Figure 1.1)

Global Earth Observation System of Systems Global Earth Observation System of Systems

(GEOSS)(GEOSS)

Lack of information and data

at a time when we need it more than ever to

deal with increasing complexity

Distribution of Global Runoff Data Centre streamflow gauges (Figure 13.1)

World Climate Conference31 August – 4 September 2009, Geneva

� Decides to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and and application of science-based climate prediction and services.

� But no silver bullet on climate information…..

National adaptation strategies

� Colombia: – Andean highlands ecosystems

– Sea level rise 2-5 mm/year

– Vector born diseases e.g. Dengue

� Peru:– Local projects, no indication of specific issues

� Brazil– Agriculture

– Coastal

Sea level rise: “plausible high end scenarios”

� 2100: + 0.55 - 1.20 m

� (0.65 – 1.35 incl. soil subs.)

� Key importance of adaptive

management: adapataion

measures must be flexible,

no-regret (robust) and hand

in hand with monitoring &

ability to incorporate new

scientific insifghts

Concept of water security

Probability of

ThresholdThreshold Water security

Probability of

low extremesProbability of

high

extremes

± 1 SDThreshold Threshold

Probability of

high extremesProbability of

low extremes

An increase in mean and variance of run off imply a nonlinear increase in the probability of extremes, which requires to adjust design criteria

Mean T0

LJM,2002

New Mean

� Precise and exact information on impacts is not and will never be made available. N o silver bullet.

� Adaptation is about dealing with uncertainties and risks

� Principles for adaptation measures for credible future:– Robustness

– Flexibility

– Resilience

Adaptation measures:

50

� Protection by a “ring of floodgates”

� New perspectives for nature restoration, outside the dikes

� Development of urban waterfronts

Costs< 2050:

1,2 tot 1,6 billion euro /yr

2050 – 2100:

0,9 tot 1,5 billion euro /yr

51

0,9 tot 1,5 billion euro /yr

Beach nourishment for coastal land reclamation: 0.1 – 0.3 billion euro/yr

(GNP = 550 billion euro/yr)

52a global network for water professionals

Membrane Bio-Reactors

53

Climate change and water management

� Climate change is additional to other changes including population growth, economic development, natural variability.

� Ensure availability and make use of credible climate scenario relevant to the specific hot spot need (coastal protection, agriculture, navigation, the specific hot spot need (coastal protection, agriculture, navigation, hydropower, drinking water supply, ecosystems).

� Political debate (beyond water) on risk management is essential at local (urban), national, regional (transboundary) and global level.

� Adaptive Management is top down structural and engineering measures in combination with bottom up building with nature, stakeholder involvement

�

mitigate... .. and adapt!Prevent

www.waterandclimate.orgThank You