Henk Frencken, ICLON - Leiden University 26 of November 2003 · Leiden University scenarios •...
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scenarios for the future Henk Frencken, ICLON - Leiden University 26 th of November 2003 thanks to Janine Swaak, Telematica Institute, Enschede
Transcript of Henk Frencken, ICLON - Leiden University 26 of November 2003 · Leiden University scenarios •...
scenarios for the future
Henk Frencken,ICLON - Leiden University
26th of November 2003
thanks to Janine Swaak, Telematica Institute, Enschede
Leiden University
this workshop
aimsto reflect on the future use of technology ineducationto get more acquainted with some issues andmethods of scenario planning
methodintroduction, scenario analysis and discussion
outcomea common (or not so common) view on what 2015could bring to education
Leiden University
model of growth of IT uses in education
1990 20102000 2020
Computer BasedTraining
Singleuser tools
Online courses
Multi- user DigitalLearning Environment
Learning on demand
Learning ContentManagement Systems
Learning Mall?
Cybraries?
ICT uses in Education
Time
Substitution Transformation?Innovation
Semantic Agents?
Leiden University
how to study this future?
the future industry is as old as history……
Leiden University
Leiden University
Leiden University
scenarios
• scenario writing is a methodology in futuresresearch, ‘linking today’s decisions withtomorrow’s possibilities’ Weingand
• ‘definition’ eCornell• examples of scenarios:
– Scenarios for Ambient Intelligence in 2010ISTAG/european commission community research
– People and Connections Shell– Collection of scenarios AC/UNU Millennium Project
Leiden University
scenarios 2• different methods for scenario planning
– often including steps such asdriving forces → uncertainties → matrix →narratives → implications
– examples• how to build scenarios Lawrence Wilkinson• building and using scenarios Shell• handbook of knowledge society foresight EC - affiliate
– literature• futures bibliography Association of Professional Futurists
Leiden University
scenario’s with 5T method
• method developed by the Telematica Institute• the writing of ‘realistic’ scenarios is the base of the
method• five issues: Themes, Targets, Tasks, Tools & Tailoring• these 5 T’s keep the scenario writing systematic.
http://www.telin.nl
Leiden University
exampleToday Paul is at school to follow lessons in Dutch language,maths, e-technology and English language. His tutor, mr.Lewis, will use part of the morning to confer with a numberof managers from companies where students from the schoolwork.
Mr. Lewis opens his PC and logs into the Knowledge Net tobegin a video conference session. At exactly 10 o’clock hestarts discussing his students progress with mr. Williams andms. Morgan, two managers of different companies.
In the mean time Paul has started the language trainingconsole on his laptop, wireless connected to the schoolslanguage server…….. etc.
Leiden University
from ‘chaos’ to 5T profile
TargetsTheme’s
Tools
Tailoring
Tasks
what are the…...
in the scenario’s ?
targets
themes
tools
tailoring
tasks
e-work
better access to information
work reduction
monitoring
PDA’s
dual learning
security
life long learning
videoconferencing
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5T profile
targets
themes
tools
tailoring
tasks
monitoring
reporting
multilingual
flex work & learn place
raisemotivation
reductionof workload
document management
videoconference
dual learning paths
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scheme
targets
tools
tasks
themes
tailoring
scenario: ………………..
Leiden University
• scenario planning is a powerful tool for strategicanalysis and decision making,
• that enables you to chart a course or optimize howyou use your resources when the future isuncertain,
• it gives you the ability to evaluate yourorganization's strategic position, competencies,and plans for development across a full range ofpotential future developments,
• this, in turn, allows you to analyze opportunitiesand risks in a coordinated manner.
course description eCornell:
http://www.ecornell.com/courses/lsm_503.jspback
