Helani galpaya
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Broadband Quality of Service Experience
Chennai, India November 3 2009
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AgendaAgenda
• Broadband: atwhat cost ? – Helani Galpaya, LIRNEasia
• Innovation in Regulation: BB QoS monitoring– Chanuka Wattegama, LIRNEasiag
• Research Findings– Prof Timothy Gonzalves TeNeT/IIT‐MProf. Timothy Gonzalves, TeNeT/IIT M
• Panel DiscussionChair Prof Ashok Jhunjhunwala TeNeT/IIT M– Chair: Prof Ashok Jhunjhunwala, TeNeT/IIT‐M
– Operators
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About LIRNEasiaAbout LIRNEasia
“T i th li f th l f th i A i• “To improve the lives of the people of the emerging Asia‐Pacific by facilitating their use of ICTs and related infrastructures; by catalyzing the reform of laws, policies f y y g f f pand regulations to enable those uses through the conduct of policy‐relevant research, training and advocacy with emphasis on building in‐situ expertise”emphasis on building in situ expertise
• A regional ICT policy and regulation think tank– Scope: Asia (Pacific)
• Research focused, not project implementation (except pilots)C t l h i Af h i t B l d h I di• Current cycle research in: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Maldives, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand (‘SAPTI’)
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Broadband : at what cost?
Some evidence from emerging AsiaSome evidence from emerging Asia
Helani GalpayaChennai, India
November 3 2009
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Mobiles: high growth through market mechanisms in Asia
Nepal
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
CAGR 2003-08 Active SIMs/100 inhab 2008
Source: ITU, data as of end 2008
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Lowest Total Cost of Ownership in the world in South AsiaSouth Asia
Four S Asian countries in less-than-USD 5 TCO club amongFour S Asian countries in less than USD 5 TCO club among 77 emerging economies (average TCO = USD10.88)
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Helped by budget telecom model that is characterized by…
L ARPU’• Low ARPU’s – Average ~USD 5 (Bangladesh USD 2 for some operators)
• Mostly (over 80%) prepaid• Mostly (over 80%) prepaid– low cost of serving (no bills, electronic re‐load, minimal 1‐800
customer care))– low customer acquisition cost (~USD 3.5)– low/no credit risk (pre‐paid and cash)– Regional negotiations for equipment; managed networks;
• Low(er) Quality necessary feature in early stages“ bl ” ll d 2 f US/EU– “acceptable” call drop rates x2 of US/EU
• High margins for operators (decresing)
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Has given access to basic voice services even to those at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP) in Asia
d h i h l 3 th
Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
Used a phone in the last 3 months
% of BOP (outer
sample)95% 96% 86% 88% 79% 77 %
Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines ThailandBangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
% of BOP (outer
sample)82% 66% 65% 77% 38% 72%
• Sample of over 11,000 BOP (SEC D and E) citizens. Indian sample size over 3 5003,500.
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Even to the BOP Rural Areas in IndiaEven to the BOP Rural Areas in India
Last time respondent made/received a call (% of
90%
100%
BOP teleusers)
60%
70%
80%
2‐3 months ago
30%
40%
50%
60%1‐2 months ago
About a month ago
2‐3 weeks ago
10%
20%
30% 1‐2 weeks ago
In the last one week
Yesterday / Today0%
Urban Rural
IndiaIndia
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Ownership is less impressive but highOwnership is less impressive, but high…
Total phone ownership (% of BOP teleusers)
owners
43% 41% 45%
73%63%
91%owners
43% 41% 45%
l d h ki di S i k hili i h il d
• Most choose to own a phone (rather than use others’ phones) for convenience; cost is secondary
Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
convenience; cost is secondary
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and growing Highest growth in India…and growing. Highest growth in India
73%63%
77%
91%
Total BOP phone ownership: 2006 vs 2008 (% of BOP teleusers)
131%
43%36% 41%
19%
45% 41%54%
63%increase
2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008
Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
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But in Broadband, India falling far behind OECD countries
30itan
ts
Broadband penetration
20
25
30
per 100 inha
bi
15
20
d subscribers p
5
10
xed broa
dban
d
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Total fix
India United Kingdom United States China Japan Germany
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And compares only moderately against South Asian peers
Broadband subscriber per 100 SAARC countries
5
6Broadband subscriber per 100, SAARC countries
3
4
2
3
0
1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka
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But even in the absence of 3G/“real‐mobile BB” speeds, appetite for Mobile BB is high, and growing
120 000 000
140,000,000
Access to BB: fixed vs. mobile
80 000 000
100,000,000
120,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
1:19 ratio in favor of mobile
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
June 2008 September 2008 December 2008 March 2009 June 2009
Wireless subscribers capable of Accessing Data services/Internet
Fixed subscribers (all types)( yp )
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In the fixed BB world DSL is dominatesIn the fixed BB world, DSL is dominates
Ethernet/LANCable Modem
“Broadband” Technology Market share Quarter ending June 2009
4% Fiber1%
Wireless1%Other
0%
7% Leased Line0%
DSL87%87%
Ethernet/Lan Fiber Wireless DSL Other Cable Modem Leased Line
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….and has been growing, leaving other fixed technologies behind
6,000,000
7,000,000
Technology Trend for Broadband ‐ India
4,000,000
5,000,000
, ,
crib
ers
2,000,000
3,000,000 Subs
‐
1,000,000
April– June 2008 July– September 2008
October–December 2008
January– March 2009
April–June 20092008 December 2008 2009
Ethernet/Lan Fiber Wireless DSL
Other Cable Modem Leased Line Radio
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Pre conditions for high access and usage of BBPre‐conditions for high access and usage of BB
Coverage Regulatory barriers exist (e.g. spectrum)
Affordable Access Technology
BroadbandGrowth Services
(e.g. IPTV, VoIP, e-ticketing, t )
- Reasonable QoSE- Some evidence
e-governance etc)
Low cost Terminals
provided today
-community accesscheaper computers?Low cost Terminals -cheaper computers?
-”mobile-like” terminals
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Prices are generally headed in the right direction: g y gdown. India has very competitive wholesale pricing
25,000
Annual cost in USD for a 2Mbps, 2km DPLC (tail cost)
20,000
10,000
15,000
5,000
‐
Bangladesh Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives
February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009
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Retail prices also coming down: e.g. 2MBps Business connection prices in India dropping
70000
Annual cost in USD, 2Mbps Broadband business connection (unlimited download)
50000
60000
70000
30000
40000
0
10000
20000
0
Afghanistan Nepal Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives
February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009
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Prices are low/reducing on basic residential packages also. India on par with regional peers
A l t 256kb B db d id ti l ti ( li it d
8,000
Annual cost, 256kbps Broadband residential connection (unlimited download)
6,000
7,000
8,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
1,000
2,000
0
Afghanistan Nepal Bangladesh Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives
February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009
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Mobile BB: India is not competitive, for obvious reasons
9
Price per GB, 1Mbps speed, 1GB data limit mobile internet. In USD
6
7
8
4
5
6
1
2
3
0
1
Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka
Sources: India, http://www.bsnl.in/service/3G/3G_files/3g.htm / INR 399 for Day/anytime 1GB of usage. Pakistan (http://www.mobilinkinfinity.com/tariff/ Mobilink Infinity 5GB limit at 1MBps speed. Bhutan http://www.druknet.bt/btelecom/GPRSEDGE3G.html . Pakistan http://www.mobitel.lk/broadband/postpaid_internet.html
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But price comparisons need to be done in relation to what the consumer gets i e actualconsumer gets – i.e. actual experienced speed per USD or p p pRupee paid