Heitor - What do we need to measure to foster “Knowledge as Our Common Future”?

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Paul Gauguin,: D'où Venons Nous / Que Sommes Nous / Où Allons Nous. 1897 Museum of Fine Arts in Boston, Massachusetts, USA

What do we need to measure to foster “Knowledge as Our Common Future”?

Where Do We Come From? What Are We? Where Are We Going?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Museum_of_Fine_Arts,_Boston

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA

About OECD STI statistics:

“Statistics are among the most visible and most extensively-used outputs of the OECD.

If the OECD were to close its doors tomorrow, the drying up of its statistics would probably make a more rapid and

bigger impact on the outside world than the abandonment of any of its other activities”

Robert Chabbal (1994) Why we need the role of OECD to continue to be relevant in the area of S&T indicators?

Part 1: an overall observation/assessment1. the number of indicators has exploded;2. the pendulum has swung excessively towards the economic dimension; 3. Following Freeman and Soete (2007): “the link between the measurement of national STI activities and their national economic impact (while always subject to debate, particularly within the context of small countries), has now become so loose that national STI indicators are in danger of no longer providing relevant economic policy insights”

In other words, S&T statistics have moved excessively towards capturing the “instrumental” value of S&T and innovation (i.e., STI) and a rebalancing is required to fully capture the “intrinsic” value of S&T and innovation.

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Some fifty years after John Ziman launched the discussion on Public Knowledge and forty years after his work on Reliable

Knowledge, to appreciate the significance of scientific knowledge one must understand the nature of science as a

complex whole. In Real Science, we are reminded that “science is social”, referring to “the whole network of social

and epistemic practices where scientific beliefs actually emerge and are sustained”.

J. Ziman (1968), Public Knowledge: The Social Dimension of Science, Cambridge University Press

J. Ziman (1978), Reliable Knowledge: an exploration of the grounds for belief in science, Cambridge University Press

J. Ziman (2000), Real Science: What it is, and what it means, Cambridge University Press

'CPLP Conferência de C&T e Ensino Superior' (Lisboa, 29 de Agosto de 2009)

The need to consider 3 main issues:• Scientific organizations• Scientific culture• Scientists… and, always, political debate with scientists!

"Science is about pursuing the truth:

proof, not authority; it's about knowledge, not

ignorance; it's about technical training,

not definitions..”

José Mariano Gago, 2014

…"Science is a battle ground, it's not neutral. And if you know it's not neutral, it becomes interesting. It can become part of

the modern youth culture. You must choose between generosity and greed,

between peace and war, and choose between disclosing or hiding the truth”…

José Mariano Gago, 2014

1. Defining “measurement standards” (i.e., Frascati, Oslo, Canberra Manuals): requires continuous work in connection with education and skills statistics and the emergence of global research networks;

what governments and policy makers expect from OECD ?

2. Compiling statistical information produced by national statistics offices, based on those Manuals (e.g., MSTI): requires better addressing the basic issues of advanced training, recruitment, mobility and employment of scientist and engineers at a global level, to better understand knowledge production and absorption processes beyond national impacts;

3. Building an “indicators production infrastructure” in STI: requires entering directly in “international data collection”, to be supported in panels of representatives of R&D and higher education institutions, STI policymakers, and individual researchers, making use of online survey techniques to get rapid responses;

4. Teaching and helping the users of indicators: to better understand the differences between events and occurrences.

Expectations from the 3rd OECD Blue Sky Forum (1) …a throughout revision of OECD STI statistics with emphasis on unexplored but relevant areas of knowledge:• Emphasizing the role of research and education beyond driving

innovation for sustainable productive economic growth;• promoting a culture of learning and knowledge;• driving better public services, improving health, prosperity and the

quality of life, and protecting the environment.

1. “production-side” of indicators: consider contributions from a wider variety of scientific backgrounds to better reflect a complex web of impacts that go well beyond economic aspects;

2. “user-side” of indicators: advancements how to safely navigate in existing OECD data sets;

Expectations from the 3rd OECD Blue Sky Forum (2)

After many years hit by recession and economic and budgetary problems:

- Which is the evolving path of R&D funding?

- Which policies to foster knowledge towards long-term growth?

Parte II: on emerging Policy Questions… …today!

…facing many myths!

How can we effectively help debunking these myths and guarantee better policies?

Public vs privateR&D vs innovationHigher education vs training labor

…we live on times of increasing socialization of risks and the privatization of rewards

Francisco de Goya, 1797-1799El sueño de la razon produce monstruos, Museo del Prado

1. Research assessment practices and scientific careers, together with “open science”:

• call for a major action of OECD to characterize those processes and guarantee the adoption of best practices worldwide;

• Conduct survey, discuss new indicators and develop a user manual

After Ottawa 2006:• San Francisco Declaration, 2012• DFG, 2013• Leiden Manifesto, 2014

2. Migratory flows of highly skilled human resources:

• The systematic provision of official data on migratory flows of highly skilled human resources around the world, including intra-European data, in order to guide policy making to better balance brain circulation and migratory flows of skilled people, including the critical need to better consider and measure incentives;

• The provision of data on refugees, students and scholars who belong to communities and/or countries at risk in need of humanitarian assistance, to foster a Rapid Response Mechanism for Research and Higher Education in Emergencies;

3. P

racti

ces a

nd in

stitu

tions

to d

iver

sify

re

sear

ch a

nd e

duca

tion:

pra

ctice

bas

ed

rese

arch

& in

term

edia

ries

Seringueiros, 1938Candido Portinari, 1903-1962

Design ThinkingHuman-centred policies towards capabilities development

Design Development Capabilities

ProductionCapabilities

Design ProcessDevelopment

ProductionExperience

Knowledge Requiredfor Design Process Development

Knowledge about Production Problems

and Conditions

Learning before Doing

Learning by Doing

Capabilities Required for Production

New Process Technology

...diversfiy research profiles, promoting practice-based research together with problem-based learning, to foster industry-science relationships and innovation!

3. Practices and institutions to diversify research and education

• adequate characterization of “professional practice-based research” oriented towards professional developments, in order to guide policymaking, as well as training students for new jobs, which requires building distinct learning and research profiles that are increasingly problem-oriented and research-based;

• institutional diversification, together with data on connectivity, links and associations among public and private institutions and new institutional players and employers and related risk-sharing mechanisms to foster skilled job creation.

How do people understand science? How do they feel about science, how do they relate to it, what do they hope from it and what do they fear about it?

4. participatory processes of R&D agenda setting

From the public understanding of science, to participatory R&D agenda setting…

19Relevance : stakeholder engagement for community building

4. participatory processes of R&D agenda setting

• Requires new theoretical advancements • Conduct survey, discuss new theoretical

advancements and develop a user manual

Expectations from the 3rd OECD Blue Sky Forum (3)

Francisco Díaz Carreño, 1890 “Posición probable del globo antes del diluvio”

Museo del PradoWhy Science and Innovation?The future requires addressing two key emerging issues

everywhere:

• EXTERNAL – multilateral:– Multiply global R&D and HE networks – Develop international R&D organisations and

programmes– Promote the international debate for new

research agendas

• INTERNAL: – Better understanding of “policy mix”:

• Exploration and exploitation• Extended BERD across small, medium and

large companies• The key role of local productive

arrangements for global markets– Invent jointly new economic drivers – Diversify and combine funding sources

Public Policy is critical: but, how far can we rely in STI indicators to help building a common vision of the future of STI?

… indicators for a curiosity-driven, knowledge-

based, learning society?

annexes

World share of GDP and GERD for the G20 over the last decade (2002-2012); values in %

Cumulative R&D expenditure, 30 years, per RESEARCHER(thousands U.S. Dollars 2005 constant prices and PPP)

Source: OECD Statistics.

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220130

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

United States EU-28

Cum

ulati

ve G

ross

Dom

estic

Exp

endi

ture

on

R&D

per

rese

arch

er (t

hous

ands

US

Dolla

rs 2

005

cons

tant

pric

es a

nd

PPP)

Undoubtedly there was considerable progress in Science, Technology and

Higher Education.

…But Europe, as a whole, has met neither its goals nor its promises in

this area.

Government Budget Appropriations or Outlays for R&D (GBOARD)/capita - 1995(Purchasing Power Standard (PPS) per inhabitant at constant 2005 prices)

Source: Eurostat


Source: Eurostat

Government Budget Appropriations or Outlays for R&D (GBOARD) Sample of large EU countries

(million current PPP $)Source: OECD; Netherlands is included in the large sized countries because of the size of the budget

19811982

19831984

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

France Germany Italy Netherlands Poland Spain United Kingdom

GBO

ARD,

Mill

ions

of U

S Do

llars

, cur

rent

PPP

$

In the year 2000, Germany and France presented similar national R&D budgets; one decade later,

Germany outpaces France by 50%. Italy budgets have declined since 2007, and in real terms are 15% lower

than in 2000.

…the quasi stagnation of R&D public investment in Europe during the last decade hides a major

trend of internal divergence inside Europe itself.

…but, what has

changed?

Note: total number of PhD’s (vertical) and the yearly number of new PhD’s (horizontal) by 10.000 inhabitants. Source: OECD

“Stock” versus “Flux” of doctorates: 2004-2012

The 500 largest EU firms investing in R&D(Following ICB - Industry Classification Benchmark; Source: EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Automobiles & Parts Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Technology Hardware & EquipmentAerospace & defence Industrial Engineering Electronic & Electrical EquipmentBanks Software & Computer Services ChemicalsOil & Gas

Mill

ions

of E

uros

19801981

19821983

19841985

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

0.0009

0.001

0.0011

0.0012

0.0013

0.0014

0.0015

0.0016

0.0017

France Germany Italy Poland Spain UK

Levels of diversification of economic struture: 1980-2010Large countries

(Inverse Hirshman-Herfindahl Index)Data Source: OECD

Total exports versus R&D accumulated expenditure per capita (millions of U.S. Dollars 2005 constant prices and PPP)

Source: OECD

Europe presents a large diversity in R&D investment and accumulation across

countries, with an average cumulative R&D

expenditure per researcher about 50% smaller than in USA.

A critical observation - 1:

A critical observation - 2:

In many other EU countries, beyond notable exceptions (including Germany), the stagnation and/or recent decrease in public R&D and HE budgets has been justified by the need to change policies, including:• Increase public funding to support firms and

business activities;• Increase the selectivity of public funding,

decreasing public support for advanced training and scientific employment.

Emerging major EU vulnerabilities:

• New migratory flows of skilled people:…the growing scientific and technological

capacity of less industrialized regions is now associated with, also, a growing vulnerability

associated with a increasing international competition for skilled human resources.

• High rates of young unemployment:…weak new job creation in less industrialized

regions.

• Accelerated rate of aging of population…

Science, its impact and the presence of innovation, result from a cumulative,

long-term, collective and uncertainty process, involving an extensive divison of

labour, which requires massifying the training of human resources and

qualifying the labour force in many economic sectors, in a way that depends

on the structure of the economy

A new hypothesis:

Public Policy is critical: but, is there room for a common vision of the future of S&I?

Ziman takes government funding of science as a given, because the market cannot be trusted to allocate resources wisely and, anyway, research now costs so much that only government can pay the bill.

the process matters!…

The continuous development of R&D and Higher Education requires counter-cycle policy measures, with emphasis on the advanced training of human resources and the systematic opening of the social

basis for education and science across all EU.

Innovation must be considered a collective and cumulative process

Heitor - What do we need to measure to foster “Knowledge as Our Common Future”?

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