Healthy Beaches for People & Fish Sea Level Rise ...€¦ · Seattle, WA . Vancouver, BC . Project...
Transcript of Healthy Beaches for People & Fish Sea Level Rise ...€¦ · Seattle, WA . Vancouver, BC . Project...
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Healthy Beaches for People & Fish Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools for San Juan County, WA
Tina Whitman & Andrea MacLennan December 10, 2015
Project Overview Tina Whitman, Friends of the San Juans
Sea Level Rise Assessment & Decision Tools Andrea MacLennan, Coastal Geologic Services
Community Engagement Tina Whitman, Friends of the San Juans
Presentation Outline
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Healthy Beaches for People & Fish Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools for San Juan County, WA
Tina Whitman and Andrea MacLennan
Partners: Friends of the San Juans
Coastal Geologic Services Salish Sea Biological Resource Media
Project Overview Funders: U.S. EPA
North Pacific LCC Sustainable Path Foundation Bullitt Foundation
Technical Team:
Washington Departments of Ecology, Natural Resources and Fish and Wildlife, The University of Washington, Tulalip Tribes, Samish Indian Nation, United States Geological Survey, Padilla Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve San Juan County Public Works, SJC Salmon Recovery, Puget Sound Partnership
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> 400 Miles Marine Shoreline Diverse Shoreform Types High Ecosystem Services Non-urban Flood & Erosion Hazards Good place to develop & test sea level rise adaptation tools
Healthy Beaches for People & Fish Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools for San Juan County, WA
Seattle, WA
Vancouver, BC
Project Overview
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Project Overview
Healthy Beaches for People & Fish Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools for San Juan County, WA
New Research SLR Vulnerability Model SLR Regulatory Review
Tidal Elevation of Surf Smelt Spawn
Manager Outreach Local and Regional Interviews,
Surveys, Focus Groups & Workshops Mgt. Recommendations
Community Engagement Decision Tools, King Tide Events,
Workshops & Surveys
Adaptation Projects Public Infrastructure/Habitat Relocation of Private Homes
Improved Policy
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Sea Level Rise Decision Tools Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment of San Juan
County
December 10, 2015 By: Andrea MacLennan, MS
Coastal Geologic Services
[email protected] www.coastalgeo.com
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Make Informed Decisions
How will my shoreline respond to sea level rise?
What are appropriate responses for my type of shoreline?
How vulnerable is my property?
Shoreform Response
San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment
Appropriate Adaptation Approaches
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Make Informed Decisions
Different shoreforms will respond differently
What are long-term vs short term solutions? Costs?
What type of hazards? (erosion or floods? both?) When? 2050/2100?
Shoreform Response
San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment
Appropriate Adaptation Approaches
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Different shoreforms will respond differently Shoreform Response
Shoretype
Topography
Geology
Sediment supply
Littoral drift cells
No Appreciable Drift
Space to move landward
Septic ?
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Shoreform Response
Increase in water levels, high tides
Increase bluff/bank erosion
Natural shorelines will move landward
More frequent high water events
storms and el ninos
Habitat loss via coastal squeeze
armored shores
Different shoreforms will respond differently
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Shoreform Response – Rocky Shores
Vertical shift upwards/landward shift in tidal elevation Similar shift in intertidal habitats
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Shoreform Response - Bluffs
Landward shift of entire beach profile Bluff erosion enables local and down-drift beaches to adjust
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Shoreform Response – Barrier Beaches
Crest of berm will build higher and shift landward via overwash Landward shift in habitats, dune grass, driftwood, intertidal spawners Habitat/beach loss can occur where landward constrains limits natural migration of beach features
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Shoreform Response - Artificial
Static shoreline armor prevents landward migration of shoreline and habitats resulting in habitat and beach loss
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Make Informed Decisions
Different shoreforms will respond differently
What are long-term vs short term solutions? Costs?
What type of hazards? (erosion or floods?) When? 2050/2100?
Shoreform Response
San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment
Appropriate Adaptation Approaches
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San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment
Objectives
• Develop a GIS tool to visualize SLR implications that integrates bluff erosion and inundation
•Identify structures and roads vulnerable to erosion and inundation
• Identify priority areas and potential management strategies
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San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment SLR
Projections
NRC SLR Projections (NAS 2012) 2050 (ft) 2100 (ft)
Moderate (IPCC A1B) Scenario 0.5 2
High (IPCC A1FI) Scenario 1.6 4.7
National Research Council 2012 Sea Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. 2012. ISBN 978-10-309-25594-3
The project Technical Advisory Group recommended using 2 scenarios and 2 planning horizons
3.06-3.12
EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Mar-13
WedThursFriSatSunMonTue
PROJECT3/6/133/7/133/8/133/9/133/10/133/11/133/12/13
Mkt0.520.5
Office0.50.50.51.5
HOLIDAY
Mileage/Costs
WDFW-MSDG 11-044
Mileage/CostsNRC SLR Projections (NAS 2012)2050 (ft)2100 (ft)
WA DOE-FB Map 12-0160.5T-3.10.75T-3.10.5T-3.1Moderate (IPCC A1B) Scenario0.52
High (IPCC A1FI) Scenario 1.64.7
Mileage/Costs
Friends SLRCI 12-01975T3.37T3.34.5T3.32.5T3.36.5T3.38.5T3.3
Mileage/Costs
COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B
Mileage/Costs
Holiday
Mileage/Costs
Vacation
Mileage/Costs
Mileage
Total Hrs.8.008.007.504.502.508.759.5048.75
2.29-3.05
EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Mar-13
WedThursFriSatSunMonTue
PROJECT2/27/132/28/133/1/133/2/133/3/133/4/133/5/13
Mkt0.5
Office0.25211.5
HOLIDAY
Mileage/Costs
WDFW-MSDG 11-044
Mileage/Costs
WA DOE-FB Map 12-0166.25T-3.12T-3.110.5T-3.1
Mileage/Costs
Friends SLRCI 12-0191.5T3.34T3.34T3.36.5T3.37T3.3
Mileage/Costs
COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B
Mileage/Costs
Holiday
Mileage/Costs
Vacation
Mileage/Costs
Mileage
Total Hrs.8.008.006.000.000.008.008.0038.00
2.20-2.28
EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Feb-13
WedThursFriSatSunMonTue
PROJECT2/20/132/21/132/22/132/23/132/24/132/25/132/26/13
Mkt1
Office0.50.50.750.52
HOLIDAY
Mileage/Costs
WDFW-MSDG 11-044
Mileage/Costs
WA DOE-FB Map 12-0161T-3.13T-3.16.25T-3.16T-3.14T-3.1
Mileage/Costs
Friends SLRCI 12-0196T3.34T3.31T3.31.5T3.3
Mileage/Costs
COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B
Mileage/Costs
Holiday
Mileage/Costs
Vacation
Mileage/Costs
Mileage
Total Hrs.7.507.508.000.000.007.507.5038.00
2.13-2.19
EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Feb-13
WedThursFriSatSunMonTue
PROJECT2/13/132/14/132/15/132/16/132/17/132/18/132/19/13
Mkt43
Office1.50.50.75
HOLIDAY8
Mileage/Costs
WDFW-MSDG 11-044
Mileage/Costs
WA DOE-FB Map 12-0160.51.5T-3.1
Mileage/Costs
Friends SLRCI 12-0191.5T3.34.5T3.30.75T3.35.5T3.3
Mileage/Costs
COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B
Mileage/Costs
Holiday
Mileage/Costs
Vacation
Mileage/Costs
Mileage
Total Hrs.7.508.000.750.000.008.007.7532.00
2.06-2.11
EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Feb-13
WedThursFriSatSunMonTue
PROJECT2/6/132/7/132/8/132/9/132/10/132/11/132/12/13
Mkt10.750.750.25
Office0.50.751.250.5
Vacation 2012
Mileage/Costs
WDFW-MSDG 11-044
Mileage/Costs
WA DOE-FB Map 12-0163T-3.16.25T-3.1
Mileage/Costs
Friends SLRCI 12-0197T3.34.25T3.34T3.36.75T3.3
Mileage/Costs
COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B
Mileage/Costs
Holiday
Mileage/Costs
Vacation
Mileage/Costs
Mileage
Total Hrs.8.508.006.000.000.007.507.0037.00
1.30-2.06
EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Feb-13
WedThursFriSatSunMonTue
PROJECT1/30/131/31/132/1/132/2/132/3/132/4/132/5/13
Mkt3.50.51.5
Office20.50.5
Vacation 2012
Mileage/Costs
WDFW-MSDG 11-044
Mileage/Costs
WA DOE-FB Map 12-0161T-3.11
Mileage/Costs
Friends SLRCI 12-0195T3.33T3.36.5T3.37T3.36T3.3
Mileage/Costs
COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B
Mileage/Costs
Holiday
Mileage/Costs
Vacation
Mileage/Costs
Mileage
Total Hrs.8.007.506.500.000.008.008.0038.00
1.23-1.29
EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Jan-13
WedThursFriSatSunMonTue
PROJECT1/23/131/24/131/25/131/26/131/27/131/28/131/29/13
Mkt
Office21.51
Vacation 2012
Mileage/Costs
WDFW-MSDG 11-044
Mileage/Costs
WA DOE-FB Map 12-0165.5T-3.14.5T-3.13T-3.1
Mileage/Costs175 boat renta
Friends SLRCI 12-0192.5T3.35.5T3.36T3.3
Mileage/Costs
COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B
Mileage/Costs
Holiday
Mileage/Costs
Vacation
Mileage/Costs
Mileage
Total Hrs.7.506.002.500.000.008.507.0031.50
1.02-1.08
EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 45Month/Year:Jan-13
WedThursFriSatSunMonTue
PROJECT1/2/131/3/131/4/131/5/131/6/131/7/131/8/13
Mkt
Office11
Sick time
Mileage/Costs
WDFW-MSDG 11-044
Mileage/Costs
WA DOE-FB Map 12-0161.5T-3.11T-3.1
Mileage/Costs
Friends SLRCI 12-019
Mileage/Costs
COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B6.5T-18T-16T-15T-16T-1
Mileage/Costs
Holiday
Mileage/Costs
Vacation
Mileage/Costs
Mileage
Total Hrs.7.508.006.000.000.007.507.0036.00
1.09-1.15
EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 4Month/Year:Jan-13
WedThursFriSatSunMonTue
PROJECT1/9/131/10/131/11/131/12/131/13/131/14/131/15/13
Mkt0.5
Office0.50.50.50.5
Sick time
Mileage/Costs
WDFW-MSDG 11-044
Mileage/Costs
WA DOE-FB Map 12-0160.5T-3.17T-3.17T-3.14T-3.1
175boat rental175boat rental
Mileage/Costs
Friends SLRCI 12-0190.5T-3.34T-3.3
Mileage/Costs
COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B6.5T-1
Mileage/Costs
Holiday
Mileage/Costs
Vacation
Mileage/Costs
Mileage
Total Hrs.8.007.500.500.000.008.008.0032.00
1.16-1.22
EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Jan-13
WedThursFriSatSunMonTue
PROJECT1/16/131/17/131/18/131/12/131/13/131/21/131/22/13
Mkt
Office0.50.5
Vacation 20128
Mileage/Costs
WDFW-MSDG 11-044
Mileage/Costs
WA DOE-FB Map 12-0168T-3.10.5T-3.15T-3.1
Mileage/Costs175 boat renta
Friends SLRCI 12-019
Mileage/Costs
COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B6.5T-13T -1
Mileage/Costs
Holiday
Mileage/Costs
Vacation
Mileage/Costs
Mileage
Total Hrs.8.507.500.000.000.008.008.0032.00
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San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment
Create the Inundation (Bath Tub) Model Step 1. Created a countywide MHHW shoreline MHHW = Mean Higher-High Water
Step 2. Linked that with topography Step 3. Created contours for Highest Observed Water Level (HOWL) and each scenario and time horizons (2050 Mod, 2050 High, 2100 Mod, 2100 High)
Step 4. Create polygons from lines
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San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment
Erosion Rates Background erosion rates from a stratified sample of shoretypes (1-2%). - Feeder bluffs, - Transport zones - Pocket Beaches - Accretion shoreforms
Exposure, Orientation DSAS, 1960s - 2009
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San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment
Buffering Bluff Erosion
• Bluff crest was digitized from LIDAR slope data
• Estimated future erosion was buffered from bluff crest
• Shoreform (8.5-155 ft) • Scenario (Mod, High) • Planning horizon
(2050, 2100)
• Structures and roads were selected that intersect erosion and inundation
Profile view of future erosion estimates – NOT to SCALE
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San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment
Uncertainty, Assumptions and Limitations • NOT a predictive tool, developed to enhance
understanding and facilitate planning
• Detailed error analysis in report • Error analysis included measures of cumulative error • Cumulative error was mapped as polygons to bracket
results
• Not all drivers of change accounted for in the model
• Uncertainty in rate of accelerated bluff retreat and sea level rise
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San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment
Assess vulnerability to floods and erosion
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SJC Vulnerability Assessment – Threatened Roads: Flood
Assess road access vulnerability to flooding
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SJC Vulnerability Assessment – Threatened Roads: Eros
Assess road access vulnerability to erosion
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Make Informed Decisions
Different shoreforms will respond differently
What are long-term vs short term solutions? Costs?
What type of hazards? (erosion or floods? When? 2050/2100?
Shoreform Response
San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment
Appropriate Adaptation Approaches
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Appropriate Adaptation Approach
• Planning horizon
• Cost of infrastructure
• Maintenance
• Opportunities
•Habitat conservation / restoration
•Increased resilience
Appropriate Adaptation Approaches
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• Effective for managing erosion and inundation in the long-term
• Requires adequate upland area for relocation
• Often cheaper than engineered solutions
• Most effective for septic, outbuildings, and highly vulnerable primary structures
Appropriate Adaptation Approaches - Relocate
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• Only effective for managing coastal flooding, not erosion
• Driftwood can damage pilings, elevated structures etc
Appropriate Adaptation Approaches - Elevate
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Shore armor has limitations:
• Only effective for managing erosion, not flooding
• Will not curb all bluff erosion
• Will lead to beach habitat loss
Appropriate Adaptation Approaches - Fortify
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•Nourish entire beach profile
• Build a storm berm, to absorb wave energy
• Compensate (short-term) for lost sediment supply or habitat loss
Appropriate Adaptation Approaches - Nourish
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Appropriate Adaptation Approaches
Bluffs Relocate structures
Nourish entire beach profile
Nourish storm berm
Nourish waterward of armor
Elevate
Fortify
Barrier beaches
Pocket beaches
The most appropriate approach depends on site-specific conditions
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Want to learn more?
andrea@coastalgeo “DOT” com
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools San Juan County, WA
Partners: FRIENDS of the San Juans Coastal Geologic Services Resource Media
Funders: U.S. EPA North Pacific LCC Sustainable Path Foundation FRIENDS Membership
Engaging Managers & Community Members
Tina Whitman, MS FRIENDS of the San Juans tina@sanjuans”dot”org
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Multiple Scales of Sea Level Rise Outreach Efforts 1. Regional Managers
• Regulators, Managers, Scientists
2. County Managers • County Public Works and Planning Departments, Conservation Entities
3. Community • Focus Area Workshop and Survey of Residents and Property Owners
4. Lessons Learned and Next Steps
SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Manager Outreach Stakeholder Interviews
• 39 federal, state, tribal and county scientists, regulators, managers Focus Groups • 17 federal, county, state, tribal and ngo managers Surveys • 20 federal, state, county and city planners Technical Team
• County, state agency, federal, tribal scientists and managers County Workshops • Public Works, Planning, Conservation Groups
SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
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In the future, normal tides may look more like today’s extreme tides
2015 Low Tide 2012 King Tide Ginny Sherrow Photo
SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Local Outreach- vulnerable communities King Tide Events
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Local Outreach- vulnerable communities Shaw Island Community Workshop • 39 residents • 2/3 shoreline property owners
Workshop Partners & Roles Regional SLR – WA Sea Grant Local shorelines 101- FSJ
SLR vulnerability assessment- CGS Local adaptation projects- FSJ Live-results, anonymous participant polling- WA Sea Grant
SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Local Outreach- vulnerable communities Shaw Island Community Survey Results
SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Local Outreach- vulnerable communities Shaw Island Community Survey Results
SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Local Outreach- vulnerable communities Shaw Island Community Survey Results
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Local Outreach- vulnerable communities Shaw Island Community Survey Results
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Local Outreach- vulnerable communities Shaw Island Community Survey Results
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Example image testing- Shaw community event survey
SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools Local Outreach- vulnerable communities Shaw Island Community Survey Results
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Example image testing- Shaw community event survey
SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Local Outreach- vulnerable communities Shaw Island Community Survey Results
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Lessons Learned Management Structure • Improved or different frameworks are needed to support the implementation
of adaptation and multi-benefit projects;
Real Life Examples • Successful on-the-ground adaptation case studies from our region will be key;
Expanded Community Engagement • Public feedback to managers is essential.
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SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools
Next Steps
• Additional community workshops and surveys.
• Cost/benefit analysis for adaptation case studies.
• Implement multi-benefit adaptation projects.
• Annual King Tides events with Conservation collaborators.
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Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools San Juan County, WA
Project Reports at: www.sanjuans.org/NearshoreStudies.htm
tina@sanjuans”dot”org Andrea@coastalgeo”dot”com
http://www.sanjuans.org/NearshoreStudies.htmmailto:tina@sanjuans%E2%80%9Ddot%E2%80%9Dorgmailto:Andrea@coastalgeo%E2%80%9Ddot%E2%80%9Dcom
Healthy Beaches for People & Fish�Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools for San Juan County, WA�Tina Whitman & Andrea MacLennan December 10, 2015Healthy Beaches for People & Fish�Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools for San Juan County, WA�Tina Whitman and Andrea MacLennan Healthy Beaches for People & Fish�Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools for San Juan County, WASlide Number 4Sea Level Rise Decision ToolsMake Informed DecisionsMake Informed DecisionsSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Make Informed DecisionsSlide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Make Informed DecisionsSlide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Want to learn more?Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools�San Juan County, WASJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsIn the future, normal tides may look more �like today’s extreme tidesSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSlide Number 46